Really bummed about the analysis of the men's basketball bubble to generate enthusiasm over analyzing some of the other sports. (although looking back at this post, I ramble a lot)
What I will say is that during our nice run in Charleston where we won 5 of 6, the problem was that we weren't generating any runs. In fact, our best run production was in the 8th inning of a game that we should have finished off in the 7th, but we blew the lead. That worried me going into conference play and going against a top 25 team in Virginia Tech. We were very competitive in games 1 and 3, but couldn't get the big hit.
Going into this week, we have Winthrop at home, and then travel to Florida State to play three against the defending national champions. Even just one win down there would be huge to get some momentum going. Starting 0-6 in the conference is a tough hole to dig out of.
Looking at the big picture, we are 16-11, 0-3 in the ACC with two rain-outs, one that has been replaced. The RPI is out and we sit at #82. Conference opponents ahead of us are: #1 Florida State, #21 Notre Dame, #27 North Carolina, #28 Virginia Tech, #49 Georgia Tech, #55 Louisville, and #80 Syracuse.
We have wins over #8 Arizona, #38 South Florida, with losses to #9 Florida, #24 Michigan, #45 Wisconsin (who is 21-3, but 45, wow) Meanwhile Nebraska who opened at 8-2 (including 2 against us, has lost 11 of 13 and fallen to #122)
Realistically, an NCAA appearance this year was a long shot, and the numbers still bear that out. If I were to take a guess, if we could run the table in the non-conference (7 games), and finish 11-13 in the ACC. That puts us at 34-24. That probably puts us in the ballpark, maybe push that to 12-12 in the ACC and 35-23 overall. There are no quads in softball that I know of, so top 50 win is a top 50 win, and we have 2 of them. We will get shots at FSU, ND, and Louisville in conference. Plus UNCG and Elon are top 100. That said, this is a building year, so I think I put this NCAA talk out there just for a reference point.
So the next step is to make the ACC tournament (top 10 of 12 teams). BC is 7-14 (0-3 ACC). We play 3 at their place. Pitt is 4-21 (1-5 ACC) We don't play them. Syracuse is 9-16 (1-2 ACC) We get them at home. Duke is 12-15 (3-3 ACC) We play them at their place. Virginia is 4-2, but traditionally struggles, and we have 3 with them at home. Guessing I'd say VT, UNC, FSU, Lou, GT, and ND are claiming 6 spots. And the remaining 6 will battle it out for the bottom 4. We get to play 4 of those 5 bottom half teams, and play 4 of the top half teams. That seems pretty reasonable.
NCSU: (4 top, 4 bottom)
UVA: (5 top, 3 bottom) (already played and swept Pitt)
Duke: (4 top, 4 bottom)
Syr: (4 top, 4 bottom)
BC: (5 top, 3 bottom)
Pitt: (4 top, 4 bottom) (already played Duke and UVA and sits at 1-5)
I think Pitt, UVA, and BC are the teams that we have the best chance of passing. So the BC and UVA series for us will be huge. Pitt seems really bad, so we just need them to keep losing.
UVA is 4-2, but could get swept by UNC, FSU, ND, and VT, putting them at 4-14 with series left against NCSU and Duke. UVA plays Duke this weekend. If Duke can take 2 of 3, we could be looking at UVA at 5-16 going into a three game set with us in their last conference series of the weekend (it would be our next to last). If we win that series 2-1, then they finish 6-18, and we have the tiebreaker. So I look at that as best case scenario we need at least 6 wins to make the ACC tournament. (Duke already has 3 wins and plays UVA this weekend. Syracuse only has one, but they are generally on the better side of this bottom group)
So if we look at us, and we concede FSU, Louisville, and Notre Dame (which, anything can happen, we could beat them, but just saying)
That means we need to go 6-6 against at BC, Syr, at Duke, and UVA. That should be doable. Win your home series, and take at least one on the road. That's 6-6.
So that's just kind of a long term look at ACC prospects. I mean, I hope we win all 4 of those series (that's 8 wins), and take a game from Louisville and Notre Dame. That's 10 wins and right in the middle of the pack. But it's just one game at time at this point.