Softball fall 2018 and spring 2019 (31-27, 9-15) season over

Wolfer79
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ScoobyWolf
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can't hit...won't win. puts a lot of pressure on our pitchers.
Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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The NC State softball team (21-17, 3-8 ACC) split its pair of games Saturday as it opened its series against Syracuse (16-20, 5-6 ACC) with a doubleheader at Dail Softball Stadium.

In its first game of the day, the Wolfpack fell by a 5-2 score to Syracuse after the Orange put together a fourth-inning surge. NC State rebounded to plate five runs in the first two innings of the second contest of the day on its way to winning 7-2 to even the series.

HOW IT HAPPENED:
Game One
- Syracuse's leadoff hitter reached base on a walk and went on to plate the first run of the game during the first inning. Gabby Teran advanced to second on a sac bunt and third on a wild pitch. With Orange runners on the corners, Chandley Garner attempted to catch Toni Martin stealing second but missed on the throw. The error scored Teran to put Syracuse up 1-0.
- NC State tallied a run of its own in the first frame after a two-out walk put Logan Morris on first. Skylar Johnston doubled down the left field line to score her.
- The Pack took its only lead of the game an inning later as Sam Russ hit a two-out solo homer, her fourth time going yard this season.
- Syracuse regained its lead in the top of the fourth inning as it totaled four hits and four runs in its half of the frame to take a 5-2 lead that it would not relinquish.

Game Two
- NC State got off to a fast start in the bottom of the first as it posted a pair of runs to take an early lead in the contest. Russ and Brigette Nordberg earned walks as the first two Wolfpack batters before Johnston stepped up to the plate to knock a single through the left side that scored Russ and advanced Nordberg to third. Nordberg went on to come home on a Logan Morris ground out that rolled to second base.
- The Pack headed into the second inning with a 2-0 lead, and Rizzi kickstarted another slew of NC State runs with a leadoff double that bounced off of the left center wall. Madeline Curtis laid down a bunt to advance Rizzi to third, and a sac fly by Russ brought Rizzi in to score the run.
- Johnston came up clutch again in her second at-bat of the game. She doubled to right center to plate Nordberg and Chandley Garner, who both reached base on a pair of walks.
- After a scoreless third inning by both teams, Syracuse got on the board as Alexis Kaiser sent a two-run shot over the right field wall. The home run scored her and Acevedo, who had reached first with a single to start the inning.
- The Wolfpack added a run in the fourth inning, and Jess Moore hit her eighth home run of the season in the bottom of the fifth. Her solo blast to left field was the final run scored by either team on the outing and put the final score of the second game at 7-2 in favor of the Pack.

ON DECK:
NC State will wrap up the series with a rubber match against Syracuse on Sunday afternoon at Dail Stadium. First pitch is slated for 12 p.m., and the game will be broadcast live on the ACC Network Extra.
Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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dj5377
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After a 2-3 week including wins over #170 Winthrop and #92 Syracuse, but losses to #57 UNCG and two losses to #92 Syracuse, the 21-18 Wolfpack sit at #68 in the RPI having dropped 6 spots. They are 1-5 vs #1-25, #26-50, and #51-100. Nice symmetry, but leaving a total resume of 3-15 vs the top 100. I think that effectively buries any NCAA chances, so now we just focus on the ACC.

In a relatively predictable week in the league, there was one surprise. Florida State lost a series to Louisville 2 games to 1. That's the first conference series loss since Maryland did it. (Yes, remember them? That was all the way back in 2012). I wouldn't say it is a changing of the guard. Just a tough thing to keep winning series after series, and a testament to how good they are. For us, we got the minimum 1 win that we needed, but really wish we could have taken the series. UVA and BC got swept, which is perfect, and if the ACC tournament was held today we would be in. We still have some work to do. To clinch that though. There appears to be 8 spots pretty much accounted for, and 2 spots left for 4 teams. My estimate a few weeks ago is that we need to get to 6 wins, and that needs to include winning the series against Virginia, so at a bare minimum, we need at least 1 win against either Notre Dame or Duke in the next two weeks. That should be reasonable. It would be great if we could go up to Notre Dame and get at least one at their place. They are #30 in the RPI, but they lost 2 of 3 to Syracuse, so they can be had. Meanwhile Virginia is at Virginia Tech, and BC hosts Louisville. Sweeps by VT and Lou would be extremely helpful, and could put us in a position to be looking at the 9 seed if it happens.

That said, here are the current standings:
1. VT 13-2
2. FSU 9-3
3. UNC 11-4
4. ND 7-5
5. Duke 8-7
6. Lou 6-6
7. Syr 6-6
8. GT 5-7
9. UVA 5-10
10. NCSU 3-9
11. BC 3-9
12. Pitt 2-10

I still think we need 6 wins minimum to make the ACC tournament, which means we are halfway there, but that relies on taking the series from UVA and having them lose out to VT and ND. Meanwhile, we are tied with BC and we have the tiebreaker. They could conceivably get swept by Lou, FSU, and VT, but they still have Pitt to finish the year, so that have to keep that in mind that we need a cushion on them before that last weekend. Anything higher than 9th seems like a long shot unless we make a big STATEment this week at ND

Here is the remaining schedules for all teams, just as a reference (using dashes for spacing, since HTML doesn't work like the old days...hope that works:

VT--------(UVA-----------UNC------at BC-------OFF)
FSU------(at UNC-------BC--------Duke-------at Syr)
UNC------(FSU-----------at VT-----at Lou------OFF)
ND--------(NCSU--------at UVA----at Pitt-------GT)
Duke-----(at Syr--------NCSU-----at FSU------OFF)
Lou-------(at BC--------GT---------UNC-------at NCSU)
Syr-------(Duke---------Pitt---------at GT------FSU)
GT--------(Pitt----------at Lou------Syr---------at ND)
UVA-------(at VT-------ND---------at NCSU----OFF)
NCSU-----(at ND------at Duke----UVA---------Lou)
BC--------(Lou---------at FSU------VT--------at Pitt)
Pitt--------(at GT------at Syr--------ND--------BC)
PackFansXL
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Great work on our lackluster softball season, dj!
Wolfer79
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dj5377
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PackFansXL said:

Great work on our lackluster softball season, dj!
I think most expected this to be a rebuilding year. They really got our hopes up that first weekend. Our two best wins of the year (so far) happened on the second and third days of the season. Still after finishing with a losing record, and last in the ACC last season. If we can make it back to the ACC tournament as a 9 or 10 seed, and have a winning record, it gets us back in the right direction.
ScoobyWolf
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I have been disappointed in our lack of hitting recently and it's not like we have gone up against superb pitching.

Our HR total is up yes, but our strikeouts per game are up too, almost 2 more per game than last year.

I think our coaches will get things going and I think we are on track to win more in conference and overall, but losing 2 to Syracuse last weekend was disappointing.

PackFansXL
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dj, I agree we expected to be near the bottom his season. I was just thanking you for taking the time to do the analysis on a team that isn't presently succeeding. You always do a great job!
Wolfer79
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NC State softball used a five-run first inning and a solid defensive outing to defeat East Carolina, 5-1, Wednesday evening at Dail Stadium. With the win, the Pack improves to 22-18 on the season, while the Pirates fall to 19-21 on the year.

NC State plated all five of its runs in the bottom of the first inning as seven Wolfpack batters reached base in the opening frame. The teams then posted four scoreless innings before East Carolina hit a solo homer in the top of the sixth to put the final score at 5-1.

OF NOTE:
- Catcher Kelli Wagner and shortstop April Visser collected the Wolfpack's two hits on the outing, each coming with two gone for the Pack. Both of their hits came in the bottom of the first as Wagner batted in one with a single and Visser scored two with a double.
- Devin Wallace showed impressive command from the circle as she fanned four batters in six innings pitched on the night. She picked up the win, her 10th of the season.


https://gopack.com/news/2019/4/10/softball-strong-start-propels-nc-state-to-5-1-win-over-east-carolina.aspx
Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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dj5377
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A 2-2 week this week for the Pack, puts us at 23-20 overall, and #72 in the RPI. Tumbling 4 more spots despite picking up a big top 50 road win. With 12 games remaining, I could conceivably see us get an at-large bid if we go 11-1 down the stretch. That includes winning the next 9 against teams that we have a better RPI than, and then taking 2 of 3 from top 50 Louisville. Just putting that out there that mathematically, we are probably still in the hunt, but focusing more on the ACC race.

Another surprise in the conference this week as FSU loses a series to UNC. Back to back series losses after having not lost a series in 7 years. Maybe FSU is starting to falter. Although I wouldn't bet against them in the post season. Currently they sit at 3rd in the ACC, but first in the Atlantic, so they still hold on to the #2 seed.

Speaking of which, the race to the tournament has almost certainly boiled down to 4 teams fighting for the last two spots. We took one unexpectedly from Notre Dame, but BC did the same to Louisville, so we remain tied with them. UVA behaved for us getting swept by VT, and Pitt, despite being up 9-0 on Sunday, ended up losing 18-9 and got swept by GT. Virginia is down to 6 games left. If Notre Dame can sweep them this week, then we take 2 of 3 from them, we will pass them no matter what happens. And Pitt has 9 games left, but sits at 2-13 with no signs of life. Expecting them to go 4-5 down the stretch is asking too much I'd say, so it really comes down to this. Match what UVA does this weekend (ND at UVA while NCSU at Duke). As long as we keep within one game of UVA then our series becomes a showdown for the ACC tournament.

BC is interesting in that they are expected to get swept by VT and FSU, and they would sit at 4-17 going into the last weekend at Pitt. If Pitt can muster up enough to get one win at home on senior weekend in their last weekend of the season, we could propel ourselves into the #9 seed. Which would line us up in the tournament on the side of VT and ND, instead of FSU and UNC. Much more advantageous. Any wins this week against Duke can be gravy, and honestly, we are #72 and they are #80. There is no reason to think that we can't win a series against them. That would be a big STATEment series win against a new program that has pretty much passed us already, and we need to reel back in.

In your "rooting" guide this week, NCSU over Duke of course. FSU to sweep BC, ND to sweep UVA. Pitt and Syracuse is a toss up. If we do well, then Syracuse losing puts the 8 seed in range, but if we do poorly, then Pitt losing helps us maintain our standing of actually being in the tournament. I'd say pull for Syr. GT-Lou and UNC-VT is a wash for us.


That said, here are the current standings:
1. VT 16-2
2. UNC 13-5
3. FSU 10-5
4. ND 9-6
5. Duke 10-8
6. Lou 8-7
7. GT 8-7
8. Syr 7-8
9. UVA 5-13
10. NCSU 4-11
11. BC 4-11
12. Pitt 2-13


Here is the remaining schedules for all teams, just as a reference:

VT--------(UNC------at BC-------OFF)
UNC------(at VT-----at Lou------OFF)
FSU------(BC--------Duke-------at Syr)
ND-------(at UVA----at Pitt-------GT)
Duke-----(NCSU-----at FSU------OFF)
Lou-------(GT---------UNC-------at NCSU)
GT--------(at Lou------Syr---------at ND)
Syr-------(Pitt---------at GT------FSU)
UVA-------(ND-------at NCSU----OFF)
NCSU----(at Duke----UVA---------Lou)
BC--------(at FSU------VT--------at Pitt)
Pitt--------(at Syr--------ND--------BC)
Wolfer79
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ScoobyWolf
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we are on track to improve wins overall and in conference. To me that is a plus. Would like to win a few more series.
ScoobyWolf
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Lost to elon 4-5
Wolfer79
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ScoobyWolf said:

Lost to elon 4-5


Dex76
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ScoobyWolf said:

I have been disappointed in our lack of hitting recently and it's not like we have gone up against superb pitching.

Our HR total is up yes, but our strikeouts per game are up too, almost 2 more per game than last year.

I think our coaches will get things going and I think we are on track to win more in conference and overall, but losing 2 to Syracuse last weekend was disappointing.


Teams have adjusted to our hitting style. IMO, we are a one trick pony when it comes to hitting and I am honestly not a fan of this style. I hope coach can do it. She is super nice and was awesome to my daughter during softball camps. I just dont understand why you cant swing for the fence and also play "small ball" when needed. Why does it have to be one or the other? We have to learn to manufacture runs when teams pitching takes away our power.

This not only puts tremendous pressure on the pitchers, the batters have to be perfect as you will not get bust just a few mistakes to take yard each game.
ScoobyWolf
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Dex76 said:

ScoobyWolf said:

I have been disappointed in our lack of hitting recently and it's not like we have gone up against superb pitching.

Our HR total is up yes, but our strikeouts per game are up too, almost 2 more per game than last year.

I think our coaches will get things going and I think we are on track to win more in conference and overall, but losing 2 to Syracuse last weekend was disappointing.


Teams have adjusted to our hitting style. IMO, we are a one trick pony when it comes to hitting and I am honestly not a fan of this style. I hope coach can do it. She is super nice and was awesome to my daughter during softball camps. I just dont understand why you cant swing for the fence and also play "small ball" when needed. Why does it have to be one or the other? We have to learn to manufacture runs when teams pitching takes away our power.

This not only puts tremendous pressure on the pitchers, the batters have to be perfect as you will not get bust just a few mistakes to take yard each game.
Those are my thoughts too. But this is her first year. I hope she can get things going.
Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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Wolfer79
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ScoobyWolf
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Congrats to the team for taking the series from Duke. Good weekend
Wolfer79
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dj5377
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Great weekend for the Pack! Taking 2 of 3 from Duke is a big momentum builder for the program overall as we recruit the state. I don't know much about Duke's recruiting (they may be national because of the school name), but it's a team that we need to outrecruit in-state, and this certainly makes a STATEment that we are moving back up.

In reference to NCAA at-large chances, our RPI dropped to #79 this week. I'm ready to say 99.9% chance that any at-large bid is off the table. I tried to do some mental gymnastics, that we win out 33-22, 12-12 in the ACC finishing 5th, and then win two in the ACC tournament and lose in the final that's 35-23 with 7 top 50 wins. Yes, that might do it, but if we go that far, just win the ACC tournament and get the auto-bid.

So putting that aside, our ACC chances improved immensely. So much so that we have clinching scenarios for the tournament this week. Specifically, if we win 2 of 3 over UVA and have BC and Pitt lose any combination of 2 games (they each lose one, or one of them loses two) then we clinch a spot in the ACC tournament. There are scenarios where we could lose out and still make the ACC tournament at this point. We would need BC and Pitt to both get swept this weekend, but they are playing VT and ND, so both of those are very possible. Still, I want to emphatically punch our ticket, and a series wins against UVA at home this weekend will do it.

Overall, VT continues to hold the top spot at 17-4, despite losing 2 of 3 to UNC. If they win out against BC this weekend, they clinch the #1 seed. That's important to us because if we win 2 of 3 against UVA, we are trending towards the 8/9 game, and I think that our tournament path is better served to go through VT than FSU.

The biggest thing this week is to beat UVA, and pull against BC and Pitt.


That said, here are the current standings:
1. VT 17-4
2. FSU 13-5
3. UNC 15-6
4. ND 12-6
5. Lou 11-7
6. Duke 11-10
7. Syr 8-10
8. GT 8-10
9. NCSU 6-12
10. UVA 5-16
11. BC 4-14
12. Pitt 4-14


Here is the remaining schedules for all teams, just as a reference:

VT--------(at BC-------OFF)
FSU------(Duke-------at Syr)
UNC------(at Lou------OFF)
ND-------(at Pitt-------GT)
Lou-------(UNC-------at NCSU)
Duke-----(at FSU------OFF)
Syr-------(at GT------FSU)
GT--------(Syr---------at ND)
NCSU----(UVA---------Lou)
UVA-------(at NCSU----OFF)
BC--------(VT--------at Pitt)
Pitt--------(ND--------BC)
Wolfer79
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