Continuing with the predictions reviews, finally is distance:
Distance
Katelyn Tuohy - No introduction needed. She'll run whatever events she wants in an attempt to win another title or two and help her training for USA's later this summer. I wouldnt be surprised to see her go for a fast 1500 early in the season while she's riding her indoors form because i'd expect her training will be a lot more strength and endurance based with not as much speed work this season as she is preparing for a later peak for USA's. So i wouldnt be surprised if she chases a fast 1500 in a shot at the record then focuses on the 5k and potentially even races a 10k to test her strength. Not much else to say about her at this point so here are the relevant records she'll be chasing this season. 1500 collegiate record is 3:59.90 by Jenny Simpson. Tuohy's current PB is 4:06.49 which was en route to her indoors mile record a few weeks ago. This will be the harder one for her to chase. The 5k collegiate record is 15:07 by Jenny Simpson but Tuohy will be chasing the 15:00 barrier if not faster. I expect she is already in sub 15 shape. For fun the 10k school record is 32:36 if she does decide to do one.
Kelsey Chmiel - I expect she'll focus on the 10k as i think she has an NCAA title of her own finally in her sights but she'll run the 5k as well. She's currently with a 10k PB of 32:45 so less than 10 seconds off the school record and that would have had her 2nd in the 10k at NCAA's last year. She's also proven she's as good if not better than Mercy Chelangat of Alabama (whos the defending 10k champ) over the longer distances over this past year. I think she can be a sub 32:30 or 32:25 runner if its her focus this year, but the goal would be for a title if she focuses on this over the 5k. In the 5k seeing her finally under 15:25 would be cool.
Samantha Bush - She'll run the 1500 and 5k primarily but mix in a few 800's as well. She competed in the 800 and 5k at ACC's last year and finished 10th in the 5k at NCAA's. She boasts a 15:35 5k PB and a 4:13.5 1500 PB, both of which are competitive to score at NCAA's. Sub 15:30 and sub 4:10 are pipe dream goals but she's so proven and so talented i'm not sure why i would limit her ceiling. I'd also love to see her drop another 2:04 800 to prove that speed again as well.
Amaris Tyynismaa - She'll run the 1500/5k. She didn't have her best outdoors season last year as she didn't come that close to her PB's she set in the 2021 season, but those are really good PB's to be fair. 4:09 1500 and 15:33 5k. I think she can shoot for ~4:07 and sub 15:30 but more than times she'll shoot for better finishes at NCAA's. Only 1 all american finish on the track in her career so far isn't befitting of her talent level. she has the ability to push for top 4ish finishes in whichever of the races she chooses to focus on and i think a higher NCAA finish will be her goal.
Sydney Seymour - She'll end up focusing on the 5k, but she has dabbled in both the 1500 and 10k in the past, though the 5k definitely is her distance based on PB's. She comes in with a 15:34 PB and is coming off a 1st all american finish at NCAA Indoors. Sub 15:30 should be the goal and maybe another all american finish.
Allie Hays - I believe she has 1 season of outdoors left before she's out of eligibility and she's still listed on the roster. She'll run the 5k and 10k. She boasts a 15:33 5k PB and 33:15 10k PB as well as a 5th place finish at NCAA outdoors in the 10k in 2022. I'm sure she'd love sub 15:30 and sub 33:00, but id imagine with this being her last season that she'll be looking for a big NCAA finish, maybe another top 5 at 10k.
Grace Hartman - The strides she's made in her first official season of competition for NC State this past winter was great to watch. From a 4:39 mile to a 9:16 3k to a 2:09 800 split on the DMR. For reference (just a reference as you can't really compare improvement between runners as everyone is different) Samantha Bush was running 2:16 for 800 and 4:59 miles her freshman indoor season. I'd love to see her look for a ~4:16/4:17 range 1500 and having no idea what her 5k time is other than a 16:45 unattached race at Joe Piane back in September of last year. I'd say shoot for sub 16:00 on the track this year. Would be a great accomplishment.
Gionna Quarzo - She'll run the 5k/10k and probably focus on the 10k when acc's/regionals comes around hoping to qualify for nationals again in the 10k. she finished 16th at NCAA's last year and has a really solid 33:24 PB in the 10k. She'll probably hope to approach 33:10 this year and try to score at NCAA's. She PB'd this past indoors in the 5k with a 15:51 so a 15:45 goals seems difficult but not impossible.
Savannah Shaw - She made big strides in the 2022 outdoor season to post PB's 1500 and 5k which is what she will focus on again. she ran a 4:16 1500 and 15:33 5k last year before missing a lot of training with her injury last summer and fall. She's qualified for nationals in the 5k once in both Indoors and Outdoors in her career so that will likely be her focus again along with a sub 15:30, but she a 4:16 shows real speed so hopefully she can improve that by 2-3 seconds.
Brooke Rauber - I think she'll run 1500 and 3k steeplechase this spring. She was one of the best 2k steeplechasers in high school and i think would immediately be the best on our team at this event. She also has a 4:24 1500 from highschool which could and should be improved upon. She hasn't run track really yet for nc state (redshirted last year and only competed at 1 event this indoors) but with 1.5 years in the program at this point hopefully she can show off some new fitness level. Her improvement at the end of cross country was really positive. I'd love to see her shoot for low 4:20's in the 1500 and shoot for a sub 10 in the 3k steeplechase.
HM - Marlee Starliper and Nevada Mareno. No idea what their health status is at this point. But both have the potential to qualify for nationals in the 5k and 1500 respectively and have done so in the past. Big thing for them first is to get and stay healthy.
Starting off with Katelyn Tuohy, its hard to say that a season where she broke a collegiate record is in any way shape or form "disappointing". However with the standards she has set for herself over the last 12 months, its hard to say this was a success either. However it should be noted that she should be judge also by how she does at USA's in early July as that is what she was basing her training around. a 5k record of 15:03 and 7th place in the 1500 at nationals is a resume pretty much every other runner would kill for and yet here its a meh for Tuohy because thats the expectations she has placed on her every time she laces up the spikes.
Kelsey Chmiel is on a pretty similar situation as Tuohy to be honest. Her standards are just so high that even though she achieved what most athletes could only dream of it's not what we've come to expect from her. Probably unfair but she's a star regardless. Coming off a 3rd place finish in XC and a 4th and 7th place in the indoors in the 5k and 3k respectively, if you'd told me she wouldn't be very competitive in the final laps and wouldn't be within 30 seconds of the winner in either the 5k or 10k at outdoor nationals i wouldn't have believed you. Hope she gets a good rest this summer and is ready for another top 5 to top 10 performance in cross country again.
Samantha Bush didn't have a great season but only because she was seemingly injured, only racing twice and not since the Wake Forest meet in April. Her opening was strong however with a 15:39 5k at Raleigh relays not far off her PB. She seemed poised for big things outdoors after another all-american finish in XC and a great indoors campaign.
Amaris Tyynismaa had a great season. Set a new PB in the 5k with a 15:30 at Wake Forest, won the ACC title in the 5k (along with 6th in the 1500) and then had a great 4th place finish at nationals in the 5k, her best finish on the track at nationals ever.
Sydney Seymour is similar to Sam Bush in that she had a great season in doors before succumbing to injury outdoors. Thankfully she posted that she has a 6th year of eligibility due to covid and she is planning on using it.
Allie Hays had an incredible start to her season, racing for the first time in 9 months she opened with a new school record in the 10k with a 32:21 which was one of the fastest times in the nation this year. Then we didn't see her race again until ACC's where she took 6th in the 5k. She ended up with a really solid 2nd team all-american finish in the 10k at nationals.
Grace Hartman continued her incredible freshman campaign with a really strong performance in outdoors and beat both of the goals i had in mind for her. Setting big PB's for a freshman of 4:15 in the 1500 and 15:49 in the 5k which are nationally competitive times. She finished 8th in the ACC in the 1500 and was the top freshman in the conference and the only one to make the finals. Really looking forward to seeing what she can do in XC.
Gionna Quarzo had a really strong outdoors campaign. She set a new PB in the 10k at Raleigh Relays with a 33:06 which beat my goal for her. She also placed 2nd in the ACC in the 10k this year only behind Tuohy. THe only disappointment in her season was finishing 1 spot out of qualifying for nationals on the 10k where i think she could have secured another all-american finish.
Probably overshot my projections for Savannah Shaw considering her injuries all summer/fall, but i was impressed and hopeful after her indoors season. She had a decent outdoors campaign but wasn't really able to get back to the level she reached in 2022 though she did finish a solid 9th in the ACC in the 1500.
Brooke Rauber in the same boat as Bush and Seymour. She ran really solid season openers at the Raleigh Relays but got injured afterwards ending her season. She's had such a stunted career so far i hope she is able to get over her injury issues soon.
I missed on Mariah Howlett and Jenna Schulz completely. Howlett ran her fastest 10k since 2020 with a 33:45 effort and she took 5th at ACC's in the event and was able to have a great race at regionals to qualify for nationals. Not her best race at nationals, but making a track nationals for the first time is a huge step in her career. Schulz set a big new PB in the 5k at Penn Relays with a 16:09. Its the kind of time where you think she can start to become competitive to get into some top 7's or top 10's to race at XC next fall if she has a good summer.
Mareno and Starliper both were injured yet again which is a big bummer.