Oldsouljer said:
Civilized said:
Oldsouljer said:
Civilized said:
All y'all that perpetually push back on any criticism of Trump as TDS, mental illness, etc. still have to reckon with the fact that voters are sending Republicans a message.
Get out of the Water Cooler. Get out of the echo chambers of social media.
A last-minute substitute Democratic candidate with serious electoral weaknesses on immigration and being too liberal, is now leading Trump in the electoral college, two weeks after entering the race.
Why is that?
Creeping over-sampling of Dem voters in these polls.
"These polls" are right-and left-leaning with corrections for sampling.
Trump still has essentially a 50% chance of winning, but it's clear Harris is very much in this thing, and gaining ground, no matter which polls you choose to look at.
I remember in the past year when you made a comment to the effect that you didn't believe polls. Likely when Trump was running away with it. I agreed with you then, I guess we're parting ways now.
I'd be curious to see you find that post of mine. I believe you that we were discussing the topic, but I don't remember saying anything of the sort, at least not related to poll aggregation. I may have questioned the veracity of an individual poll with a partisan lean.
I've followed 538/Nate Silver's work since the 2012 election and always have been a big believer in poll aggregation. It's not perfect but it's way more accurate than guessing or looking at rally crowd size or looking at individual polls. It just makes sense - rate polls based on their past accuracy, partisan lean, and sampling composition, and correct/average the polls with appropriate weights.