pineknollshoresking said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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pineknollshoresking said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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Steve Williams said:

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Oil crosses $60 a barrel.

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We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.

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JPMorgan says two factors could drive up oil prices by another $5 to $10 per barrel (cnbc.com)

Increased demand as the global economy recovers and limited supply from OPEC+ countries.

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I don't buy that! Oil prices were going down as we were producing more. The global supply and OPEC should only make a minimal difference to us as we mitigated our risk from them. Example: look at oil prices during the Trump era. The more we produced, the better our oil prices. Biden is changing policies that will affect our production; so, that is the reason we will see the biggest change in oil prices, not the recovery.

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Oil is a global commodity. "Our" oil prices are based on global supply and demand, just like everyone else's.

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I get that; however, we were a net positive exporter of oil, right?

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We "were" a net positive exporter....not sure if we are or not anymore. As far as our oil prices being just like everyone else's that is true, but when you have more supply on the market it drives the price down because you have more supply to meet the demand

I paid $2.499 / Gallon for Regular on the SE NC Coast earlier today... up $0.74 / Gallon from the summer ($1.75) - and up $0.64 / Gallon since a couple of weeks before January 20, 2021 ($1.85)...

But please continue to excuse it away libs!

gas prices are spiking yes, but due to several factors. Mostly because the price of crude oil is in a return to normalcy as it is just now reaching the price range that it hovered in for a 2 year period from Dec 2017 - Dec 2019. Demand was pretty much bottomed out during the pandemic as you would expect and crude oil prices plummeted due to it. Vaccines and light at the end of the tunnel has led to prices and oil futures rising the past few months in the expectation that demand will return to normal in the somewhat near future.

Also, the gulf coast refineries have been basically shut down for the past few weeks due to winter weather limiting supply in a lot of areas.

The AAA website has a ton of articles posted every few days on the subject. This administrations policies may have some effect on the price i'm not sure, but the prices would be going up regardless of who the president is right now.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/news/

The actions of this administration are affecting the oil prices significantly. You can't speak and take EO's to change the supply future negatively and not expect prices to go up...

Justify it how you would like; however, this all started happening as soon as Biden was confirmed through the electoral college on Jan 6th.

As some of you have said about Trump, your words matter. In this case, Biden's words (and actions) matter. Perhaps he should be impeached for political malfeasance...

Where do y'all park money your saving for a purchase 1-3 years out?

I realized that I had too much money sitting in a savings account(more than enough for an "emergency fund") that was accruing minimal interest. I ended up opening a Robinhood account a investing a decent amount in various stocks/ETFs/crypto. It has done fairly well so far. You could always invest it in some sort of Total Stock Market ETF(VOO) or (VTI) and have it earn more than a savings account.

910wolf said:

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Where do y'all park money your saving for a purchase 1-3 years out?

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Index funds

FlossyDFlynt said:

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910wolf said:

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Where do y'all park money your saving for a purchase 1-3 years out?

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Index funds

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Real Estate and cash

pineknollshoresking said:

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The actions of this administration are affecting the oil prices significantly. You can't speak and take EO's to change the supply future negatively and not expect prices to go up...

Justify it how you would like; however, this all started happening as soon as Biden was confirmed through the electoral college on Jan 6th.

As some of you have said about Trump, your words matter. In this case, Biden's words (and actions) matter. Perhaps he should be impeached for political malfeasance...

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Like i said I don't know if the current administration has had an impact or not. Its certainly possible. But the larger impact has everything to do with the pandemic timing and winter weather and not policy decisions. You can just look at a chart of crude oil prices or the national gas average and see that it has been going up since early December (not january 6th) . Gas bottomed out nationally in late march/early april due to the pandemic and is returning to normal. We still aren't as high as we were in 2018-19.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W

jadawson said:

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pineknollshoresking said:

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The actions of this administration are affecting the oil prices significantly. You can't speak and take EO's to change the supply future negatively and not expect prices to go up...

Justify it how you would like; however, this all started happening as soon as Biden was confirmed through the electoral college on Jan 6th.

As some of you have said about Trump, your words matter. In this case, Biden's words (and actions) matter. Perhaps he should be impeached for political malfeasance...

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Like i said I don't know if the current administration has had an impact or not. Its certainly possible. But the larger impact has everything to do with the pandemic timing and winter weather and not policy decisions. You can just look at a chart of crude oil prices or the national gas average and see that it has been going up since early December (not january 6th) . Gas bottomed out nationally in late march/early april due to the pandemic and is returning to normal. We still aren't as high as we were in 2018-19.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W

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Ok

GME making a return

What trading platform does everyone use?

IseWolf22 said:

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What trading platform does everyone use?

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Schwab and Vanguard. Happy with both

FlossyDFlynt said:

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IseWolf22 said:

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What trading platform does everyone use?

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Schwab and Vanguard. Happy with both

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vangaurd is great. I use TD as well. TD's website is meh, but I really like their trading app ThinkOrSwim.

WPNfamily said:

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WPNfamily said:

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pineknollshoresking said:

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Steve Williams said:

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Just looking at the market numbers- While I'm certainly not complaining, it's almost inconceivable to me that we just came through the worst of a pandemic with millions out of work and yet, the S&P sits near an all-time high at 3,886 after bottoming at 2,305 last March.

One thing I think worth watching- crude oil is up 55% since the election. I've noticed prices creeping up steadily at the pump. My guess is the jump is going to be attributed to easing of the pandemic. Just my 2 cents but I think gas prices are the one thing that can take down this economy faster than any other. Next 6 months to a year will be interesting to watch for sure.

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Steve, the market has never made sense to me. One would think that Stock Prices would go up or down based on company performance. Now, trading and market conditions should make a stock price fluctuate (EX: War, unstable region where exports or imports go).

The problem we have is when Hedge Funds make radical stock price changes based on their leverage. That is the real problem I have the stock market...

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The stock market is always forward looking by months. Today's market reflects what the expectations for this fall will be. Q3 and Q4 should be bananas in terms of consumer spending in retail, travel, and leisure. Buy travel and hold it is one of the few opportunities for a 2x in one year still.

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Well guys my CCL is current up 77% today. I haven't looked at it for a month. 2x is going to happen soon. This is the biggest risk I have taken to date. I dumped a gaggle of apple this morning to go deep with bit coin. Thats a 8-9 mo play I think. When CCL doubles I am out. Well at least half. I still like Boeing. The CCL half may go there. Anyone else betting on travel right now?

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I legged into Southwest pretty much all of last year. GE as well (aircraft engines)

jadawson said:

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FlossyDFlynt said:

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IseWolf22 said:

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What trading platform does everyone use?

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Schwab and Vanguard. Happy with both

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vangaurd is great. I use TD as well. TD's website is meh, but I really like their trading app ThinkOrSwim.

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I was surprised that TD seems to have the best rated app. I was thinking it was going to be one of the FinTech startups.

I'm primarily looking at TD and wealthfront right now. There is some attraction to the automation benefits of wealthfront, if I want the ability to pay less attention day to day

910wolf said:

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Where do y'all park money your saving for a purchase 1-3 years out?

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Ultra-short term Treasuries, they're almost as safe as FDIC-insured Savings or CDs, pay out better, and you won't be hammered very bad if yields begin to soar.

This post was on the "price of lumber" thread, and was made my ncsualum05:

"A lot of people blame covid and will continue to but now I think in some cases it's greed. In some cases it's interruption in supply chain still causing these issues. Currently I'm booming in commercial construction but I'm hearing home construction is already slowing down. I can only imagine by late this year we will slow down as well. The market just cannot continue to absorb this pumped up inflation nor the lead times for a lot of materials. Building will come to a halt. I'm glad I have a couple of new jobs that are getting started to have backlog through what could be a tough time coming.


Also hearing chicken and pork shortage and price increases are here now due to lack of production. Why? Because stimulus checks apparently. They can't get workers.

On top of all that it feels weird to see the market continually inflated as it is. As we spend and waste huge amounts of money and continue to encourage people to stay home with stimulus plus unemployment, not to mention all the businesses that have survived the last year due to PPP. It just feels like a massive economic bubble that is going to explode at some point. I'm no expert of course but I feel something ominous. Feels like all it will take is a tax raise rammed through or a fed reserve interest rate hike and we're all in trouble."

So here's my question/issue:

I basically max out my 401k contribution every month. I still have over 10 years until I can draw/use any of the money from said 401k.

If there are others in a similar situation.... what are your plans?
Have you given any thought to scaling back your monthly contributions (and if so, to what level?) until this possible "impending recession" hits -- and THEN go back to maxing out your contributions?

Because investing a ton into the market when it's down buys "more" than investing a ton when it's up.

And yes, I know -- you can never time the market just right.
I'm more referring to all of the things that alum05 mentioned in his post: that there are many, many signs that we might be on the cusp of a bubble that's ready to burst.

Thoughts?...

Alleypack I don't know much about investing. Like I said in that post I'm no expert. I did nothing during the great recession except lose a bunch of money and sit there and wait 4 years until I got it back. I might ask my advisors if I need to make any changes to my current planning. Things are good right now. I just am concerned in general at the artificial pumping up of the economy and it seems our current government would rather continue this strategy and keep people afraid of a virus versus returning to normalcy. I've heard that the stimulus is the very reason we are about to have this shortage in food. That's crazy.

I did a lot of reading and pondering last night, and I've decided to just stick it out and not try to time anything.
Even if the market drops (which it eventually will --- it runs in cycles) I have enough time to recover the funds prior to retirement.

When I get closer to age 59.5 (when the money in my 401k becomes available for use) then I will shift things over to bonds to lessen my risk.

But for now, 10+ years out from that point, I'm just going to continue to roll with it.
If I cut my contributions next month but then it's another six months until the bottom falls out... or another year... then that would be a lot of market gains that I'd miss out on.

It's all a roll of the dice, of course --- but for now I'm going to stick with it.
But I definitely appreciated your post, as it made me think and do some re-analyzing of my investments, which is something I had not done for a couple of years.

I view my 401k as a set it and forget it. I raised contributions every time I got a raise until I got to a point where I max it out. No plans on touching it until I get closer to starting to take distributions, which will be many years from now.

I do have a Roth as well, and that one is much more dependent on whats on the horizon each year.

The only investment account I try to "time" is my brokerage, but I still hold on to things for a while. I havent sold anything out of that account (outside of AMC during the whole WSB fiasco) in a couple of years.

I think we are in a bubble, but it's not going to burst until 1-3 years out. We've pumped in too much money for anything to be imminent. For right now I'd continue to invest but a year or more from now I would not be surprised if things start cratering.

I've had my 401K and Roth IRA maxed for a few years now. I'm actually starting to wonder if it's worth it. I have a long time until retirement and I could end up with a lot saved, but not able to access it for years. I've been toying with the idea of diverting some to a brokerage account, or switching a large percentage to a Roth 401K

I have a few accounts I could consider early retirement accounts, so I dont see the need to divert funds yet. As I get closer to retirement age, I am sure my strategy will change, but as I am still two decades away, I dont see a need to change at this point. Just plan on letting it ride for the time being and evaluate as we go along

IseWolf22 said:

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I've had my 401K and Roth IRA maxed for a few years now. I'm actually starting to wonder if it's worth it. I have a long time until retirement and I could end up with a lot saved, but not able to access it for years. I've been toying with the idea of diverting some to a brokerage account, or switching a large percentage to a Roth 401K

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The only rule ive ever heard about 401k investing is to make sure you are at least getting to your employer match if it is offered. Beyond that its up to you where you want your money to go. If you find lower fee options through your brokerage and are more comfortable there than your employers 401k then that is what i would do. Just depends on how much involvement you want to have. Target date funds that most employer 401k's use are very easy and uncomplicated for most people.

jadawson said:

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IseWolf22 said:

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I've had my 401K and Roth IRA maxed for a few years now. I'm actually starting to wonder if it's worth it. I have a long time until retirement and I could end up with a lot saved, but not able to access it for years. I've been toying with the idea of diverting some to a brokerage account, or switching a large percentage to a Roth 401K

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The only rule ive ever heard about 401k investing is to make sure you are at least getting to your employer match if it is offered. Beyond that its up to you where you want your money to go. If you find lower fee options through your brokerage and are more comfortable there than your employers 401k then that is what i would do. Just depends on how much involvement you want to have. Target date funds that most employer 401k's use are very easy and uncomplicated for most people.

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Amen to that. Both my wife and I give enough to our 401ks to get the employee match. Its free money

bsorry11 said:

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Dogecoin

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The 500 i put into it as a joke 4 months ago looking pretty damn good now. Gotta figure out when to bail though. It's already way overvalued.

johntom said:

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bsorry11 said:

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Dogecoin

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The 500 i put into it as a joke 4 months ago looking pretty damn good now. Gotta figure out when to bail though. It's already way overvalued.

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Dogecoin is a joke. Crypto, generally, is a joke.

However, ten years ago, Bitcoin was worth about a dollar. It's now worth $62,000.

Hold the line!