Stock Market and Investments Discussion

47,657 Views | 342 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by waynecountywolf
caryking
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Ok, I'm getting ready to go out on a limb that may cause some to think: he's lost his mind!

What I'm seeing and hearing is an alliance that may be starting with people that would never see eye to eye. They probably want see eye to eye on the solution; however, they see the same issue...

Issue is Elite vs Populist

  • Elites are the Oligarchs that have protected their well being via crony capitalism
  • Populist are people like MAGA, anti-establishment politicians, and occupy wall-street types

We have, and have had, an unholy alliance between big Corporation and big Government. Nothing about that is free-market capitalism. The establishment politicians have wanted it this way in order to get rich, and they have.

For some time, we have people complaining about this through different means. Think about what the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street were really saying... the system is rigged and the Elites, or some would say, Establishment Politicians, are screwing people.

Same complaint; however, a different means of fixing the issues. We even had, for a short period, AOC and Ted Cruz aligned. How could that be?

Where am I on all this? I pulled out of the market (not completely) in the early 2000's because I hated the short selling going on. I literally despise short selling. That said, I have always argued for a minimalist, almost libertarian, constitutional government. Stop the crony capitalism as it makes real capitalism look bad. This ties off with short selling as I believe this creates a world of cronyism. Just watch the business pundits manipulate stocks all day long on TV.

I guess I'm m an oxymoron: a libertarian populist!

cowboypack02
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pineknollshoresking said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

This is what should cause us all big issues... On the Bloomberg Terminal (this is used to communicate out to the world financial sector), they referred to the Reddit people as:

Stock Insurrection(ist)

Why would they use the term insurrection? Isn't that familiar to the January 6th issue at the Capitol? What is the goal of referring to the Reddit people as the same as the Capitol incident?
99% of people I know have never heard of a Bloomberg Terminal, much less know what it is. I'm kinda interested in knowing what type of financial background you have now.
I think your question is off a little... the question should have been something like: where are you getting information that talks about a Bloomberg Terminal. I'm not familiar with it...

I'm not a financial person in the markets, nor do I trade on my own. So, to partially answer the question, see the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal

Now, why do I know about this? It's the news agencies I follow...

Edit: please excuse my response if it sounds snarky. I just read it and thought... that sounds crappy!
All good brother...and you didn't come across as snarky

I work in Finance so I know what a Bloomberg Terminal is....you were just the first person that i had heard mention it that didn't work in finance (that I know of). It perked my interest...kinda like when someone throws out an obscure fact.
caryking
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cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

This is what should cause us all big issues... On the Bloomberg Terminal (this is used to communicate out to the world financial sector), they referred to the Reddit people as:

Stock Insurrection(ist)

Why would they use the term insurrection? Isn't that familiar to the January 6th issue at the Capitol? What is the goal of referring to the Reddit people as the same as the Capitol incident?
99% of people I know have never heard of a Bloomberg Terminal, much less know what it is. I'm kinda interested in knowing what type of financial background you have now.
I think your question is off a little... the question should have been something like: where are you getting information that talks about a Bloomberg Terminal. I'm not familiar with it...

I'm not a financial person in the markets, nor do I trade on my own. So, to partially answer the question, see the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal

Now, why do I know about this? It's the news agencies I follow...

Edit: please excuse my response if it sounds snarky. I just read it and thought... that sounds crappy!
All good brother...and you didn't come across as snarky

I work in Finance so I know what a Bloomberg Terminal is....you were just the first person that i had heard mention it that didn't work in finance (that I know of). It perked my interest...kinda like when someone throws out an obscure fact.

I say I watch off-beat news and some on here may think I'm a conspiracy theorist... Not at all, just have found certain outlets that provide really good information that keeps me informed.

And I'm not a Qanon person either...
griff17matt
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cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

This is what should cause us all big issues... On the Bloomberg Terminal (this is used to communicate out to the world financial sector), they referred to the Reddit people as:

Stock Insurrection(ist)

Why would they use the term insurrection? Isn't that familiar to the January 6th issue at the Capitol? What is the goal of referring to the Reddit people as the same as the Capitol incident?
99% of people I know have never heard of a Bloomberg Terminal, much less know what it is. I'm kinda interested in knowing what type of financial background you have now.
I think your question is off a little... the question should have been something like: where are you getting information that talks about a Bloomberg Terminal. I'm not familiar with it...

I'm not a financial person in the markets, nor do I trade on my own. So, to partially answer the question, see the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal

Now, why do I know about this? It's the news agencies I follow...

Edit: please excuse my response if it sounds snarky. I just read it and thought... that sounds crappy!
All good brother...and you didn't come across as snarky

I work in Finance so I know what a Bloomberg Terminal is....you were just the first person that i had heard mention it that didn't work in finance (that I know of). It perked my interest...kinda like when someone throws out an obscure fact.

I used to fix Bloomberg Terminal issues earlier in my IT career at my current job. Bloomberg has those things on lock though, so unless it was a very surface level issue or an issue between the terminal and other apps on our network, we generally passed off almost all the issues onto their IT departments. Those licenses were no joke though. Like 20k per. Crazy.

Now, I'm on the IT side of Market Risk in my current role. We don't interact with front office personnel so I'm not sure about their thoughts on what's currently happening. We back office folks can always have a good laugh about it though. Can't wait to see our time series data 3 years from now on GameStop, though!
jadawson
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IseWolf22 said:

Daviewolf83 said:



I hope this helps. I also think Robinhood's days are limited. They are not a serious company and a place I or others would ever try to execute trades in the future, if they are actively working to manipulate the market. I suspect the SEC will be contacting them shortly.
Just curious, is this based on anything other than the current news? I have several people who keep telling me I should use Robinhood over other platforms and they do have significant amounts invested. They all work in the tech sphere though.
Robinhood has a lot of issues with their service. They have had several lawsuits brought by daytraders that there is essentially a "pay to play" scheme with their service. The typical retail trader has their trades put at the end of the line because big firms pay for their trades to flow first.

So lets say you want to buy shares that are currently trading at $50.00. You put in your order and set a limit at $50.50 because you aren't willing to buy at a higher price than that. Ideally your purchase should go through almost immediately and you get a price of only a few cents higher than $50.00 if it's gone up. With the way Robinhood works, your trade may not go through for several seconds or longer depending on the backlog (not just milliseconds). So your trade may go through at 5-10 cents higher per share than it would/should have if it went through in the proper order.

Is this a huge gamechanger for the beginner trader who deals ETF's and small amounts of shares of blue chip stocks? Not really and Robinhood is typically a good platform for beginners because it has a very easy to use interface. But if you ever start dealing in options tradin or dealing in higher volume trades, these delays may cause large swings in value for you in one direction or another. There have been reports of people who have set stop-losses that have been missed because Robinhood couldn't get the trade through fast enough.

EDIT: an example of a calls action suit against robin hoood

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/12/24/robinhood-hit-by-new-class-action-lawsuit.html
BBW12OG
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It turned my stomach to link this... but Robinhood just raised $1 Billion overnight to "bail" themselves out from their investors. Pretty sure that would be looked at if it were a "Parler" type networked site.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/technology/robinhood-fundraising.html
cowboypack02
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griff17matt said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

This is what should cause us all big issues... On the Bloomberg Terminal (this is used to communicate out to the world financial sector), they referred to the Reddit people as:

Stock Insurrection(ist)

Why would they use the term insurrection? Isn't that familiar to the January 6th issue at the Capitol? What is the goal of referring to the Reddit people as the same as the Capitol incident?
99% of people I know have never heard of a Bloomberg Terminal, much less know what it is. I'm kinda interested in knowing what type of financial background you have now.
I think your question is off a little... the question should have been something like: where are you getting information that talks about a Bloomberg Terminal. I'm not familiar with it...

I'm not a financial person in the markets, nor do I trade on my own. So, to partially answer the question, see the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal

Now, why do I know about this? It's the news agencies I follow...

Edit: please excuse my response if it sounds snarky. I just read it and thought... that sounds crappy!
All good brother...and you didn't come across as snarky

I work in Finance so I know what a Bloomberg Terminal is....you were just the first person that i had heard mention it that didn't work in finance (that I know of). It perked my interest...kinda like when someone throws out an obscure fact.

I used to fix Bloomberg Terminal issues earlier in my IT career at my current job. Bloomberg has those things on lock though, so unless it was a very surface level issue or an issue between the terminal and other apps on our network, we generally passed off almost all the issues onto their IT departments. Those licenses were no joke though. Like 20k per. Crazy.

Now, I'm on the IT side of Market Risk in my current role. We don't interact with front office personnel so I'm not sure about their thoughts on what's currently happening. We back office folks can always have a good laugh about it though. Can't wait to see our time series data 3 years from now on GameStop, though!
The licensing is up to 25k a pop last time I checked.....not a bad gig if you can get it.
griff17matt
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cowboypack02 said:

griff17matt said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

cowboypack02 said:

pineknollshoresking said:

This is what should cause us all big issues... On the Bloomberg Terminal (this is used to communicate out to the world financial sector), they referred to the Reddit people as:

Stock Insurrection(ist)

Why would they use the term insurrection? Isn't that familiar to the January 6th issue at the Capitol? What is the goal of referring to the Reddit people as the same as the Capitol incident?
99% of people I know have never heard of a Bloomberg Terminal, much less know what it is. I'm kinda interested in knowing what type of financial background you have now.
I think your question is off a little... the question should have been something like: where are you getting information that talks about a Bloomberg Terminal. I'm not familiar with it...

I'm not a financial person in the markets, nor do I trade on my own. So, to partially answer the question, see the link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal

Now, why do I know about this? It's the news agencies I follow...

Edit: please excuse my response if it sounds snarky. I just read it and thought... that sounds crappy!
All good brother...and you didn't come across as snarky

I work in Finance so I know what a Bloomberg Terminal is....you were just the first person that i had heard mention it that didn't work in finance (that I know of). It perked my interest...kinda like when someone throws out an obscure fact.

I used to fix Bloomberg Terminal issues earlier in my IT career at my current job. Bloomberg has those things on lock though, so unless it was a very surface level issue or an issue between the terminal and other apps on our network, we generally passed off almost all the issues onto their IT departments. Those licenses were no joke though. Like 20k per. Crazy.

Now, I'm on the IT side of Market Risk in my current role. We don't interact with front office personnel so I'm not sure about their thoughts on what's currently happening. We back office folks can always have a good laugh about it though. Can't wait to see our time series data 3 years from now on GameStop, though!
The licensing is up to 25k a pop last time I checked.....not a bad gig if you can get it.
Not even including some of the feeds you can subscribe to. We had some Managing Directors that had well over 100k/yr in feeds fees. Absolutely insane the amount of money they threw at the stock market. We've tried to back out of volatile revenue streams like investment banking and more into Wealth Mgmt in Asia and Africa.
caryking
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I hope we will be able to see this play out. If our government is truly doing what's alleged, then we are far more messed up than I thought...

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/markets/2021/01/28/robinhooders-be-like-were-all-trump-supporters-now/

BBW12OG
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Guess who has been put in charge of leading the investigation AGAINST the Reddit group?

caryking
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BBW12OG said:

Guess who has been put in charge of leading the investigation AGAINST the Reddit group?


Is he still married?
BBW12OG
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Yep..... some really weird stuff with that crowd.
dogplasma
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At the risk of making a non-political post, I'm just curious if using something like Robinhood is complicated from a tax standpoint? All my investing has been done via my employer and the 401k options it offers. I've never done my own trading and I don't know how often the typical self-investor buys and sells.
BBW12OG
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dogplasma said:

At the risk of making a non-political post, I'm just curious if using something like Robinhood is complicated from a tax standpoint? All my investing has been done via my employer and the 401k options it offers. I've never done my own trading and I don't know how often the typical self-investor buys and sells.
Since the pandemic and I have been working from home 98% of the time and not on the road myself and a few friends started "playing" more frequently. It started out with $PENN.... it snowballed from there.

I already had a personal account with TD Ameritrade that I would throw some money in and buy "safe" stocks for my Roth IRA. That money ISN'T taxed unless you go over $6k I believe a year. That was/is on top of my 401k from my employer.

A regular stock account you are taxed on earnings, dividends and if you sell and make profits. It's a variable tax rate I believe. This is the one I "play" with. I bought in early the other morning on Nokia (NOK) hoping it's going to be the next Gamestop.

It's fun to take whatever "expendable" "play with" money, buy a cheap stock and watch it a few days, earn a few dollars and brag to your buddies. And I'm not saying big money... we all usually buy $50 -$100 a week in junk stocks to see who can best who.

jadawson
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dogplasma said:

At the risk of making a non-political post, I'm just curious if using something like Robinhood is complicated from a tax standpoint? All my investing has been done via my employer and the 401k options it offers. I've never done my own trading and I don't know how often the typical self-investor buys and sells.
If you like to buy and sell a lot it will probably be easiest to either hire someone or at least use a tax program like turbotax. Most will have features that allow you to download your trading data from the year from your brokerage and it will make filing easier.
FlossyDFlynt
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I sold off my AMC this morning. Took a good ROI and called it a game. Dumped it all into an index fund, which is a "set it and forget it" for me.
cowboypack02
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pineknollshoresking said:

BBW12OG said:

Guess who has been put in charge of leading the investigation AGAINST the Reddit group?


Is he still married?
Maybe his wife is into being ran around on....
Steve Williams
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Staff
Just looking at the market numbers- While I'm certainly not complaining, it's almost inconceivable to me that we just came through the worst of a pandemic with millions out of work and yet, the S&P sits near an all-time high at 3,886 after bottoming at 2,305 last March.

One thing I think worth watching- crude oil is up 55% since the election. I've noticed prices creeping up steadily at the pump. My guess is the jump is going to be attributed to easing of the pandemic. Just my 2 cents but I think gas prices are the one thing that can take down this economy faster than any other. Next 6 months to a year will be interesting to watch for sure.
caryking
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Steve Williams said:

Just looking at the market numbers- While I'm certainly not complaining, it's almost inconceivable to me that we just came through the worst of a pandemic with millions out of work and yet, the S&P sits near an all-time high at 3,886 after bottoming at 2,305 last March.

One thing I think worth watching- crude oil is up 55% since the election. I've noticed prices creeping up steadily at the pump. My guess is the jump is going to be attributed to easing of the pandemic. Just my 2 cents but I think gas prices are the one thing that can take down this economy faster than any other. Next 6 months to a year will be interesting to watch for sure.
Steve, the market has never made sense to me. One would think that Stock Prices would go up or down based on company performance. Now, trading and market conditions should make a stock price fluctuate (EX: War, unstable region where exports or imports go).

The problem we have is when Hedge Funds make radical stock price changes based on their leverage. That is the real problem I have the stock market...
WPNfamily
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pineknollshoresking said:

Steve Williams said:

Just looking at the market numbers- While I'm certainly not complaining, it's almost inconceivable to me that we just came through the worst of a pandemic with millions out of work and yet, the S&P sits near an all-time high at 3,886 after bottoming at 2,305 last March.

One thing I think worth watching- crude oil is up 55% since the election. I've noticed prices creeping up steadily at the pump. My guess is the jump is going to be attributed to easing of the pandemic. Just my 2 cents but I think gas prices are the one thing that can take down this economy faster than any other. Next 6 months to a year will be interesting to watch for sure.
Steve, the market has never made sense to me. One would think that Stock Prices would go up or down based on company performance. Now, trading and market conditions should make a stock price fluctuate (EX: War, unstable region where exports or imports go).

The problem we have is when Hedge Funds make radical stock price changes based on their leverage. That is the real problem I have the stock market...


The stock market is always forward looking by months. Today's market reflects what the expectations for this fall will be. Q3 and Q4 should be bananas in terms of consumer spending in retail, travel, and leisure. Buy travel and hold it is one of the few opportunities for a 2x in one year still.
jadawson
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Steve Williams said:

Just looking at the market numbers- While I'm certainly not complaining, it's almost inconceivable to me that we just came through the worst of a pandemic with millions out of work and yet, the S&P sits near an all-time high at 3,886 after bottoming at 2,305 last March.

One thing I think worth watching- crude oil is up 55% since the election. I've noticed prices creeping up steadily at the pump. My guess is the jump is going to be attributed to easing of the pandemic. Just my 2 cents but I think gas prices are the one thing that can take down this economy faster than any other. Next 6 months to a year will be interesting to watch for sure.

One thing i've learned since i've been investing more seriously the last few years is that while a bottoming stock market usually indicates a bad economy, a strong market does not indicate a strong economy. There are so many external factors that affect market performance that don't have anything to do with the state of the economy as it affects the common citizen.

The market is inflated right now for several reasons, not the least of which is how the Fed handled it over the last year. The Fed pumped over 1 trillion dollars into financial markets during the pandemic in 2020 to avoid a crash.
AlleyPack
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Like WPN said above, I think you're going to see consumer spending go through the roof in the upcoming 6-12 month period. Once the Covid numbers come down and people feel safer post-vaccine, you'll see vacations galore, much more eating out at restaurants, etc. etc.

I've never been a micromanager with my investments; I just pour money into my 401k and spread it amongst a variety of index funds.
Up years, down years... history has shown that when it all shakes out come retirement time, it will be "up" as a whole. (just make sure to switch over to mostly bonds as age 59.5 approaches... if you're a conservative investor)

Steve Williams
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Staff
This current run up almost seems to have an irrational exuberance to it except I don't really get where the exuberance is coming from. It just seems to me we're primed for a 20-30% correction.
FlossyDFlynt
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Steve Williams said:

This current run up almost seems to have an irrational exuberance to it except I don't really get where the exuberance is coming from. It just seems to me we're primed for a 20-30% correction.
I feel like weve been primed for a correction for the last five years
jadawson
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AlleyPack said:

Like WPN said above, I think you're going to see consumer spending go through the roof in the upcoming 6-12 month period. Once the Covid numbers come down and people feel safer post-vaccine, you'll see vacations galore, much more eating out at restaurants, etc. etc.

I've never been a micromanager with my investments; I just pour money into my 401k and spread it amongst a variety of index funds.
Up years, down years... history has shown that when it all shakes out come retirement time, it will be "up" as a whole. (just make sure to switch over to mostly bonds as age 59.5 approaches... if you're a conservative investor)



Yep. Time is always your friend. It sucks to see your account value drain during a recession or world event like this pandemic but generally you just want to see it through and let the market work for you. Unless you have inside info you will never time it right to get our at the right time or get back in at the right time. Just let the market work for you and if you have time on your side it will always end back up higher than it was before.

If you are a few years from retirement then you shouldn't be so heavily invested in the market anyways. Target date funds are your friend if you don't want to micro manage.
caryking
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Steve Williams said:

This current run up almost seems to have an irrational exuberance to it except I don't really get where the exuberance is coming from. It just seems to me we're primed for a 20-30% correction.
I feel like weve been primed for a correction for the last five years
Maybe last year, but not the three years before. All economic numbers were excellent.
caryking
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jadawson said:

AlleyPack said:

Like WPN said above, I think you're going to see consumer spending go through the roof in the upcoming 6-12 month period. Once the Covid numbers come down and people feel safer post-vaccine, you'll see vacations galore, much more eating out at restaurants, etc. etc.

I've never been a micromanager with my investments; I just pour money into my 401k and spread it amongst a variety of index funds.
Up years, down years... history has shown that when it all shakes out come retirement time, it will be "up" as a whole. (just make sure to switch over to mostly bonds as age 59.5 approaches... if you're a conservative investor)



Yep. Time is always your friend. It sucks to see your account value drain during a recession or world event like this pandemic but generally you just want to see it through and let the market work for you. Unless you have inside info you will never time it right to get our at the right time or get back in at the right time. Just let the market work for you and if you have time on your side it will always end back up higher than it was before.

If you are a few years from retirement then you shouldn't be so heavily invested in the market anyways. Target date funds are your friend if you don't want to micro manage.
You have to be able to move a stock. That's what happened with the GameStop deal. The Reddit folks were able to move the stock. No inside info, just power in numbers that outflanked the movers (Hedge Funds).

I have one (only one) old 401K that I gave to my advisor. It had around 35K in it. I was fortunate enough to tell the advisor to have fun, kind of free money. This was about four years ago. Well, it ran up to 100K. As soon as Biden took office, I had it moved to cash. Not the best place for it; however, I believe we are ready for some type of correction. I'm currently in a wait and see position...

That being said, I always have had better returns investing in commercial properties. My partner (my brother) and I are always in a better position with commercial property than the stock market. Be honest, I haven't loss this way. Commercial property is more difficult to get into than the stock market. You need capital!
Steve Williams
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Staff
Oil crosses $60 a barrel.



cowboypack02
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Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.
cowboypack02
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A lot of people seemed to come to pieces with the GameStop play by the Reddit guys. In all reality that is exactly how the market works for people who are making major investments.

Case in point:
Warren Buffett buys $8.6 billion in Verizon stock:
gtman49
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cowboypack02 said:

Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.


May not take that long with the situation in Texas and some of the facilities that are shutdown.
Ground_Chuck
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cowboypack02 said:

Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.
JPMorgan says two factors could drive up oil prices by another $5 to $10 per barrel (cnbc.com)

Increased demand as the global economy recovers and limited supply from OPEC+ countries.
caryking
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Ground_Chuck said:

cowboypack02 said:

Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.
JPMorgan says two factors could drive up oil prices by another $5 to $10 per barrel (cnbc.com)

Increased demand as the global economy recovers and limited supply from OPEC+ countries.
I don't buy that! Oil prices were going down as we were producing more. The global supply and OPEC should only make a minimal difference to us as we mitigated our risk from them. Example: look at oil prices during the Trump era. The more we produced, the better our oil prices. Biden is changing policies that will affect our production; so, that is the reason we will see the biggest change in oil prices, not the recovery.
Ground_Chuck
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pineknollshoresking said:

Ground_Chuck said:

cowboypack02 said:

Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.
JPMorgan says two factors could drive up oil prices by another $5 to $10 per barrel (cnbc.com)

Increased demand as the global economy recovers and limited supply from OPEC+ countries.
I don't buy that! Oil prices were going down as we were producing more. The global supply and OPEC should only make a minimal difference to us as we mitigated our risk from them. Example: look at oil prices during the Trump era. The more we produced, the better our oil prices. Biden is changing policies that will affect our production; so, that is the reason we will see the biggest change in oil prices, not the recovery.
Oil is a global commodity. "Our" oil prices are based on global supply and demand, just like everyone else's.
caryking
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Ground_Chuck said:

pineknollshoresking said:

Ground_Chuck said:

cowboypack02 said:

Steve Williams said:

Oil crosses $60 a barrel.




We'll see gas over 3.00 before the end of the year.
JPMorgan says two factors could drive up oil prices by another $5 to $10 per barrel (cnbc.com)

Increased demand as the global economy recovers and limited supply from OPEC+ countries.
I don't buy that! Oil prices were going down as we were producing more. The global supply and OPEC should only make a minimal difference to us as we mitigated our risk from them. Example: look at oil prices during the Trump era. The more we produced, the better our oil prices. Biden is changing policies that will affect our production; so, that is the reason we will see the biggest change in oil prices, not the recovery.
Oil is a global commodity. "Our" oil prices are based on global supply and demand, just like everyone else's.

I get that; however, we were a net positive exporter of oil, right?
 
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