1/n Ontario now has a full week of data showing cases and hospitalization by vaccine status.

This data needs a pop. adjustment, at minimum, so here's that.

We have a v. clear result that unvaccinated Ontarians are at much, much higher risk of hospitalization + intensive care. pic.twitter.com/tJjnQOEIWA

— Ed Tubb (@EdTubb) August 16, 2021

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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ED data finally posted today through 8/13 (with understood backlog).

Most we have seen this curve bend down, and it has been predictive the the past with cases.



Zooming in to just recent weeks.

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One of WRAL's leading infectious disease doctors said in a television interview last week that he expects the current wave of Delta infections to NOT PEAK until late October or early November.

My view, based on the data and my projections - he is wrong. I am not sure what data he is looking at to come to his conclusion and if we did not have vaccines, it might be possible for him to be right. We have vaccines and we know that vaccines are much more effective in preventing infection than any mask could ever provide.

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I don't know how he came to that conclusion either... maybe he is right.

I doubt it. Even pre-vaccine, in northern climates we haven't seen a real 'wave' that really goes past 2 months from start to peak. This one going to late October would be a 4 month rise to the wave and historically, at least, COVID hasn't behaved like that.

I mean, we have seen signs of growth rate decline for over 2 weeks now. Certainly, anything is possible, but I seriously wonder about how 'expert' some of these experts are.

Even without vaccines (or almost none), India peaked in that same 2 month time frame. If any wave takes much longer.

If that ED curve holds its trend and continues to get lower, IMO we are past infection peak.

Amazingly, Wake may be showing a decline in pos%. White NC DHHS's 14 day is still showing a small increase, the CDC's 7 day is showing that number come down a little.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Could the recent spike in RSV be one of the unintended costs for isolating children last year and keeping them out of school? Something to consider when you read this article. Also, does this mean there will be two spikes in RSV this year, instead of one. I suspect there is a good chance of that happening.

By the way, the focus on RSV is important, since RSV is leading to pediatric hospitalizations and impacting the capacity for pediatric beds at a time Covid is also increasing in some areas. A quote from the article:

" 'In my 30 years as a pediatric emergency physician at Children's Minnesota, we've never seen this level of RSV illness in the middle of summer,' said Dr. Robert Sicoli, medical director of the Emergency Department."

Rare summer spike in RSV cases

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I would not doubt that last years lockdown contributed to the naivetization of young immune systems. Of course, in immunology, the duration of immune memory varies from pathogen to pathogen. I'm not in pediatrics and so not familiar with RSV. It's frustrating to me that the likes of Fauci act like there's no other health issues out there.

State has a one month wait for vaccines for students. Know a frosh that was going to get one after being tested and was told it's a one month wait.

Also, said Woodson was very adamant about keeping State students in school. This was at a freshman event over the weekend with probably 300 people in attendance unmasked.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Here's a question that came up when I went out to dinner last night with a teacher and top school administrator for a very large private school in Raleigh. We were discussing hospitals and the impact low staffing appears to be having on hospital capacity. The school administrator asked me this - "What happens to staffing when they start to fire the nurses and other staff that refuse to get vaccinated?"

My response - At this point, I do not think they can fire anyone.

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This is the bridge Duke is on right now. Even offering substantive sign on bonuses they're unable to fulfill staff requirement that enables them to fire the scarlet letter employees.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Just call me Nostradamus. I thought it would take another week, but not surprised by this report. Duke is not the only school testing fully vaccinated asymptomatic people. As we learned last week, Stanford is doing the same thing. I suspect there are some epidemiologists working for testing companies.

Please note, Duke tested 10,000 people last week - the vast majority of them were fully vaccinated and they found 111 positive cases. This is a waste of testing resources and serves no purpose to protect those who are fully vaccinated. The chance of those people developing severe symptoms, being hospitalized, or dying is significantly less than 1%.

Get ready to see the shutdown of universities soon. Today, some UNC faculty called for a one month delay in the start of classes at UNC.

Just In: More than 100 vaccinated people at Duke University test positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/lzG6KouMJb

— WRAL NEWS in NC (@WRAL) August 16, 2021

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I haven't done the deep dive into this one yet. But you post reminded me of this tweet I saw.

If we test random people in the population, we will detect many respiratory viruses by nasal PCR (e.g. 7.2% positive in study below)

This does not necessarily that these people are or will become sick, nor does it necessarily mean that they impose risks on others https://t.co/0eRIIeDUEa pic.twitter.com/f8ltotUzwY

— Infectious Disease Ethics (@ID_ethics) August 16, 2021

packgrad said:

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State has a one month wait for vaccines for students. Know a frosh that was going to get one after being tested and was told it's a one month wait.

Also, said Woodson was very adamant about keeping State students in school. This was at a freshman event over the weekend with probably 300 people in attendance unmasked.

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Thats the thing...as said earlier, they've had a whole year to plan to react better.

It is surprising though that there is such a backlog on vaccines. I know thats a big chunk of people, but again, its not unexpected...everyone has known they were coming, and would likely have many to vaccinate...

packgrad said:

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State has a one month wait for vaccines for students. Know a frosh that was going to get one after being tested and was told it's a one month wait.

Also, said Woodson was very adamant about keeping State students in school. This was at a freshman event over the weekend with probably 300 people in attendance unmasked.

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Can't they just go to CVS / Walgreens / etc? Aren't they free everywhere?

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Just call me Nostradamus. I thought it would take another week, but not surprised by this report. Duke is not the only school testing fully vaccinated asymptomatic people. As we learned last week, Stanford is doing the same thing. I suspect there are some epidemiologists working for testing companies.

Please note, Duke tested 10,000 people last week - the vast majority of them were fully vaccinated and they found 111 positive cases. This is a waste of testing resources and serves no purpose to protect those who are fully vaccinated. The chance of those people developing severe symptoms, being hospitalized, or dying is significantly less than 1%.

Get ready to see the shutdown of universities soon. Today, some UNC faculty called for a one month delay in the start of classes at UNC.

Just In: More than 100 vaccinated people at Duke University test positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/lzG6KouMJb

— WRAL NEWS in NC (@WRAL) August 16, 2021

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I haven't done the deep dive into this one yet. But you post reminded me of this tweet I saw.

If we test random people in the population, we will detect many respiratory viruses by nasal PCR (e.g. 7.2% positive in study below)

This does not necessarily that these people are or will become sick, nor does it necessarily mean that they impose risks on others https://t.co/0eRIIeDUEa pic.twitter.com/f8ltotUzwY

— Infectious Disease Ethics (@ID_ethics) August 16, 2021

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The idea that vaccinated people who become infected are a risk to unvaccinated people is not based on studies that prove it can happen. One study used vaccines not approved for use in the US and it was in vitro. The other one, cited by the CDC, did not measure viral load for those infected. There are a few studies that show people who are vaccinated and become infected clear the virus much faster than an unvaccinated person and as a result, have limited ability to infect others.

If you are worried about Covid, get vaccinated. If you have health reasons why you can't, you should wear an N95 respirator in when in public. If you are under the age of 17, your chance of serious illness is similar to that of a vaccinated person and the chance of death is lower than the flu.

The whole idea of testing asymptomatic vaccinated people is a fraud. I can understand testing them if you are conducing a study, but to do this every week to find cases is a waste of time and valuable resources. The more people who get vaccinated, the more vaccinated people who will test positive for Covid.

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At Duke's vaccination rate, there should be no asymptomatic testing. (There really shouldn't be asymptomatic testing ANYWHERE but.....).

Such a waste of resources.

statefan91 said:

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packgrad said:

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State has a one month wait for vaccines for students. Know a frosh that was going to get one after being tested and was told it's a one month wait.

Also, said Woodson was very adamant about keeping State students in school. This was at a freshman event over the weekend with probably 300 people in attendance unmasked.

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Can't they just go to CVS / Walgreens / etc? Aren't they free everywhere?

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If he decides to follow through with it now, he can. He said the test wasn't bad though so is again undecided if he wants to get it.

Across our 4 campuses as of yesterday, 95 admitted, 24 in icu, 12 tubed, and 27 covid positive in ER

Combo of both

How long has the care protocol included monoclonal antibody treatment?

A while

ciscopack said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Overheard one of my clients in a phone call to a relative in New York telling them they shouldn't come for a vacation since covid is so bad here because nobody wears masks. I just rolled my eyes.

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There's no doubt that a mask could help someone in close contact with someone with Covid, the flu or a bad cold. If you're 20 feet away...not much of a worry. I was in a condo elevator last weekend and the man said, no one in SC cares about Covid. His mask was on; his wife and child's were not. Mine was in my pocket.

I'm just wondering when we're going to sue the families of Edward Jenner, Jonas Salk, Louis Pasteur, Richard Pfeiffer, George F. Dick, Albert Calmette, Max Theiler, Rudolf Weigl, Waldemar Haffkine and others for bringing evil vaccines among us?

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May 14, 1796 - Edward Jenner tested the hypothesis that infection with cowpox could protect a person from smallpox infection.

Cowpox is an uncommon illness in cattle, usually mild, that can be spread from a cow to humans via sores on the cow. During an infection, dairy workers may have pustules on their hands. Sufferers can spread the infection to other parts of the body.

We know now that the cowpox virus belongs to the Orthopox family of viruses. Orthopox viruses also include horsepox virus, monkeypox virus, and variola virus, which causes smallpox.

On May 14, 1796, Jenner inoculated eight-year-old James Phipps with matter from a cowpox sore on the hand of milkmaid Sarah Nelmes. Phipps suffered a local reaction and felt poorly for several days but made a full recovery. In July 1796, Jenner inoculated Phipps with matter taken from a fresh human smallpox sore, as if he were variolating the boy, in an attempt to challenge the protection from cowpox. Phipps remained healthy. Jenner next demonstrated that cowpox matter transferred in a human chain, from one person to the next, provided protection from smallpox.

Jenner was not precisely sure about the nature of the cowpox material he used. He suspected that cowpox actually came from horsepox; in other words, he speculated that cows became infected with the same agent that caused a similar disease in horses. Recent genetic analysis of old samples of smallpox vaccine have revealed that the samples were more closely related to horsepox virus than cowpox virus.

May 17, 1803 - At the first meeting of the Royal Jennerian Society, Edward Jenner insisted that the origin of the term vaccination, from the Latin for cow ("vacca"), be credited to his friend and fellow physician, Richard Dunning.

1813 - The U.S. Congress authorized and James Madison signed "An Act to Encourage Vaccination," establishing a National Vaccine Agency. James Smith, a physician from Baltimore, was appointed the National Vaccine Agent. The U.S. Post Office was required to carry mail weighing up to 0.5 oz. for free if it contained smallpox vaccine materialan effort to advance Congress's ruling to "preserve the genuine vaccine matter, and to furnish the same to any citizen of the United States."

The History of Vaccines

Four school boards in the Charlotte area met tonight to decide whether to stick with a mask optional policy or to mandate masks for the start of the year. Final votes:

Burke- Required
Cabarrus- Required
Caldwell- Optional
Gaston- Required

— Joe Bruno (@JoeBrunoWSOC9) August 17, 2021

The mandate party is now going to recommend a 3rd shot. Science.

The Biden administration is expected to advise that most Americans should get Covid booster shots eight months after becoming fully vaccinated, two sources say https://t.co/VSICZl2L6r

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) August 17, 2021

Daviewolf83 said:

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packgrad said:

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The mandate party is now going to recommend a 3rd shot. Science.

The Biden administration is expected to advise that most Americans should get Covid booster shots eight months after becoming fully vaccinated, two sources say https://t.co/VSICZl2L6r

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) August 17, 2021

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I will wait to see the science behind the recommendation, before I make a decision to get a booster at this time. Antibodies are interesting, but T-Cell response should still be strong, even as antibodies begin to diminish.

I did get the J&J vaccine, so I want to see specific studies with evidence that particular vaccine needs a booster inside of a year of my previous shot.

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Concur with the T cell response which is really what matters long term. I've followed the Covid literature only casually, not sure what the studies are saying concerning Immune duration. Seems to be some contradictory studies out there.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Just call me Nostradamus. I thought it would take another week, but not surprised by this report. Duke is not the only school testing fully vaccinated asymptomatic people. As we learned last week, Stanford is doing the same thing. I suspect there are some epidemiologists working for testing companies.

Please note, Duke tested 10,000 people last week - the vast majority of them were fully vaccinated and they found 111 positive cases. This is a waste of testing resources and serves no purpose to protect those who are fully vaccinated. The chance of those people developing severe symptoms, being hospitalized, or dying is significantly less than 1%.

Get ready to see the shutdown of universities soon. Today, some UNC faculty called for a one month delay in the start of classes at UNC.

Just In: More than 100 vaccinated people at Duke University test positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/lzG6KouMJb

— WRAL NEWS in NC (@WRAL) August 16, 2021

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About the same percent of the general population last summer! Wow, we are making progress

caryking said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Just call me Nostradamus. I thought it would take another week, but not surprised by this report. Duke is not the only school testing fully vaccinated asymptomatic people. As we learned last week, Stanford is doing the same thing. I suspect there are some epidemiologists working for testing companies.

Please note, Duke tested 10,000 people last week - the vast majority of them were fully vaccinated and they found 111 positive cases. This is a waste of testing resources and serves no purpose to protect those who are fully vaccinated. The chance of those people developing severe symptoms, being hospitalized, or dying is significantly less than 1%.

Get ready to see the shutdown of universities soon. Today, some UNC faculty called for a one month delay in the start of classes at UNC.

Just In: More than 100 vaccinated people at Duke University test positive for COVID-19 https://t.co/lzG6KouMJb

— WRAL NEWS in NC (@WRAL) August 16, 2021

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About the same percent of the general population last summer! Wow, we are making progress

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We will see how far that yellow line shifts up. It looked like yesterday that they were finally getting into the data for this wave. Still far below last year.

Daviewolf83 said:

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packgrad said:

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The mandate party is now going to recommend a 3rd shot. Science.

The Biden administration is expected to advise that most Americans should get Covid booster shots eight months after becoming fully vaccinated, two sources say https://t.co/VSICZl2L6r

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) August 17, 2021

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I will wait to see the science behind the recommendation, before I make a decision to get a booster at this time. Antibodies are interesting, but T-Cell response should still be strong, even as antibodies begin to diminish.

I did get the J&J vaccine, so I want to see specific studies with evidence that particular vaccine needs a booster inside of a year of my previous shot.

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Based on what I read, the Phyzer has a 6 month efficacy rate. It starts weakening and a booster is needed. Some say they are doing this only for the money. Well, we all know money is involved; however, don't be blind to think that's all it is. They know it's true, so, they are pushing...

Remember, just a couple of weeks ago, the Biden admin (CDC also) said no booster is needed. Why the change now? Political? That's my opinion. Just a couple of weeks ago, Biden was talking like a mandate person. This is all you need to do. Just get vaccinated! The idea of a booster would have weaken his argument for the unvaccinated!!

And I thought "feelings" were confined to the social "sciences".