My daughter's mother now has Covid. Most likely caught it at the concert Friday night. She's feeling pretty bad. Daughter is in quarantine for 10 days with only a headache so far. Praying for quick healing as she is getting married end of October

PackPA2015 said:

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Great post, Davie. I work in the MAHPC hospital group, but have many patients from the MHPC group. We use hospitals in that area as well.

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I thought you might have experience in both hospital groups, given your location. Thanks for all the insight you provide for your hospital groups. It is so helpful having people who are seeing the effects of Covid first hand.

This is probably one of the best things I've ever read about risk tolerance. So important in these scary days to remember that we still need data to guide our actions on behalf of children, not fear.https://t.co/gRrXooPPV7

— Ricardo Quiñonez, MD (@QuinonezRicardo) August 16, 2021

"A recent peer-reviewed study in Britain of nearly 260,000 children (1,700 of whom showed symptoms) reminds us that for most kids, a coronavirus infection will manifest as the common coldif anything. Also reassuring is that only 4.4 percent of children diagnosed with COVID-19 in this study had symptoms after 28 days (and 1.8 percent after 56 days). Probably not surprising to any parent, about 1 percent of kids in this study who had upper-respiratory symptoms and tested negative for COVID-19 also had lingering symptoms at 56 daysa reminder that COVID-19 is only one potential cause for a child's malaise.

Abundant evidence indicates that coronavirus transmissions rates in schools are roughly equal to or less than those of the surrounding community. In other words, educational settings are not inherently dangerous for younger children. This should reassure parents and policy makers who are nervous about sending them back to the classroom."

....

"Next, we must accept the unpleasant reality that risk is everywhere. Children face many serious threats to their well-being, including other diseases, mental illness, and accidents. Vehicular crashes kill more than 1,000 Americans younger than 15 each year. Yet we've accepted this risk; we also don't revisit it with every news story about a car crash.
When my patients ask me whether a given activity is safe, I usually tell them the answer isn't a firm yes or no. Absolutism itself can do harm. Rather, I ask about individual patients' circumstances, explain medical evidence, and try to help frame their decision by offering advice about relative risks and benefits. As with fear, risk cannot be eliminated; it can only be mitigated. Health stems from allowing fear to protect us from dying but not allowing it to prevent us from living.
Similarly, victory over COVID-19 will require accepting our perilous reality, releasing ourselves from the impossible task of eradicating danger, and relishing the sometimes-immeasurable reward that comes from tolerating risk. Had I prohibited my son from driving that rainy night, for example, he might have lost his jobor, worse, his faith in how much I trust him."

Site https://t.co/bYDMaP2eOl isn't precise but it's directionally accurate: Today it shows declining Rt in every state except Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Iowa; Rt below 1.0 in 14 states. Even as daily new cases fall and rate of spread slows, hospitals face many hard weeks

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) August 16, 2021

wilmwolf80 said:

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Overheard one of my clients in a phone call to a relative in New York telling them they shouldn't come for a vacation since covid is so bad here because nobody wears masks. I just rolled my eyes.

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There's no doubt that a mask could help someone in close contact with someone with Covid, the flu or a bad cold. If you're 20 feet away...not much of a worry. I was in a condo elevator last weekend and the man said, no one in SC cares about Covid. His mask was on; his wife and child's were not. Mine was in my pocket.

I'm just wondering when we're going to sue the families of Edward Jenner, Jonas Salk, Louis Pasteur, Richard Pfeiffer, George F. Dick, Albert Calmette, Max Theiler, Rudolf Weigl, Waldemar Haffkine and others for bringing evil vaccines among us?

.

ciscopack said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Overheard one of my clients in a phone call to a relative in New York telling them they shouldn't come for a vacation since covid is so bad here because nobody wears masks. I just rolled my eyes.

---

There's no doubt that a mask could help someone in close contact with someone with Covid, the flu or a bad cold. If you're 20 feet away...not much of a worry. I was in a condo elevator last weekend and the man said, no one in SC cares about Covid. His mask was on; his wife and child's were not. Mine was in my pocket.

I'm just wondering when we're going to sue the families of Edward Jenner, Jonas Salk, Louis Pasteur, Richard Pfeiffer, George F. Dick, Albert Calmette, Max Theiler, Rudolf Weigl, Waldemar Haffkine and others for bringing evil vaccines among us?

---

Welcome back Comrade... was wondering where you and your lefty buddies have been hiding. Funny... haven't seen you or your ilk over on the Biden thread. Wonder why.. since you posted some banality I figured you deserved at least this little gem.



Khoroshego dnya!!

statefan91 said:

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Site https://t.co/bYDMaP2eOl isn't precise but it's directionally accurate: Today it shows declining Rt in every state except Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Iowa; Rt below 1.0 in 14 states. Even as daily new cases fall and rate of spread slows, hospitals face many hard weeks

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) August 16, 2021

---

Let's hope those positive trends continue. The next two weeks will definitely be telling.

Daviewolf83 said:

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statefan91 said:

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Site https://t.co/bYDMaP2eOl isn't precise but it's directionally accurate: Today it shows declining Rt in every state except Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Iowa; Rt below 1.0 in 14 states. Even as daily new cases fall and rate of spread slows, hospitals face many hard weeks

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) August 16, 2021

---

Let's hope those positive trends continue. The next two weeks will definitely be telling.

---

Really want to see all the CDC data today. Increased testing (especially institutional/university/etc) and clusters mucking some of the stuff up, imo.

Also, get a few days past that reported cases backlog (not that case data is everything.. or anything... but media loves it)

griff17matt said:

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Packchem91 said:

---

griff17matt said:

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Oldsouljer said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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As for kids wearing masks in schools, my two cents is that priority number one is having kids in schools. If that means they have to wear masks to satisfy the Twitter brigades, it sucks, but it's better than virtual learning. Kids need to be in schools so parents can go to work.

With that said, if they are going the mask route in schools, then there should not be any stoppages or quarantines if there are positive tests. If we are all in on the masks protect kids train, then that's that. There has to be an end game. The cycle of quarantines and mask mandates has to stop somewhere.

---

No reason why it can't. India seems to have put down their Delta epidemic in just five weeks with the widespread use of Ivermectin. Monoclonal antibody treatment is another promising option. Wrecking lives, personal liberties and the Economy with dark age measures like mask mandates and lockdowns should never be an option.

---

India had strict lockdowns in their large cities.

---

Yeah I have some staff in India....it was very strict. Also extremely under-vaccinated, at least when the large spike started.

---

Still are. We have to remember how seriously underdeveloped the country is as a whole though. Like 6% are fully vaccinated I think?

My counterparts are in India and they were only allowed to leave for the grocery store or pharmacy I think. And that was restricted to like once or twice a week I think. It was baaaad bad for a hot minute there. One guy had something like 5 or 6 people in his apartment building die in the delta wave and a few family members too. Brutal. His stories to me were really the catalyst to get me thinking about getting the vaccine before it's FDA approved. It was really, really bad really, really quickly.

Part of my resistance is that I've already had it in the first wave before we knew what it was. I've got too many kids counting on me to be alive to be a stickler over this though. I dunno. I just hate how politicized and fearmongered it has become. I feel like I can't trust anyone to give me legit unvarnished truth without some ulterior motive.

---

So I chatted with one of my guys today in Bangalore (~9mm people).

• No longer on lockdown, except in some very specific neighborhoods where case counts increase
• Masks are required everywhere in public -- you are fined rupees if you are caught w/o one
• Schools are remote.
• Some office buildings are back open, but only about 40% in person at this point
• They have vaccinated over 545mm people. The messaging is very much "this will not prevent you from getting Covid, but will limit your chances of getting super sick/dying"
• I don't think he really understood my question about people fighting back about masking and vaccine requirements.

Packchem91 said:

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Way: if nothing else today...thank you for expanding my vocab today -- I had never ever heard of "nosocomial". I like that word now. Well, the sound of it.... don't like its result.

---

Don't feel bad, most people don't read Bio science journals for a living and nosocomial isn't exactly used much outside of clinical discussions.

Packchem91 said:

---

griff17matt said:

---

Packchem91 said:

---

griff17matt said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

wilmwolf80 said:

---

As for kids wearing masks in schools, my two cents is that priority number one is having kids in schools. If that means they have to wear masks to satisfy the Twitter brigades, it sucks, but it's better than virtual learning. Kids need to be in schools so parents can go to work.

With that said, if they are going the mask route in schools, then there should not be any stoppages or quarantines if there are positive tests. If we are all in on the masks protect kids train, then that's that. There has to be an end game. The cycle of quarantines and mask mandates has to stop somewhere.

---

No reason why it can't. India seems to have put down their Delta epidemic in just five weeks with the widespread use of Ivermectin. Monoclonal antibody treatment is another promising option. Wrecking lives, personal liberties and the Economy with dark age measures like mask mandates and lockdowns should never be an option.

---

India had strict lockdowns in their large cities.

---

Yeah I have some staff in India....it was very strict. Also extremely under-vaccinated, at least when the large spike started.

---

Still are. We have to remember how seriously underdeveloped the country is as a whole though. Like 6% are fully vaccinated I think?

My counterparts are in India and they were only allowed to leave for the grocery store or pharmacy I think. And that was restricted to like once or twice a week I think. It was baaaad bad for a hot minute there. One guy had something like 5 or 6 people in his apartment building die in the delta wave and a few family members too. Brutal. His stories to me were really the catalyst to get me thinking about getting the vaccine before it's FDA approved. It was really, really bad really, really quickly.

Part of my resistance is that I've already had it in the first wave before we knew what it was. I've got too many kids counting on me to be alive to be a stickler over this though. I dunno. I just hate how politicized and fearmongered it has become. I feel like I can't trust anyone to give me legit unvarnished truth without some ulterior motive.

---

So I chatted with one of my guys today in Bangalore (~9mm people).

• No longer on lockdown, except in some very specific neighborhoods where case counts increase
• Masks are required everywhere in public -- you are fined rupees if you are caught w/o one
• Schools are remote.
• Some office buildings are back open, but only about 40% in person at this point
• They have vaccinated over 545mm people. The messaging is very much "this will not prevent you from getting Covid, but will limit your chances of getting super sick/dying"
• I don't think he really understood my question about people fighting back about masking and vaccine requirements.

---

The guys I talk to daily in India are still all working remote. We have not reopened our offices in Bangalore.

Wayland said:

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

statefan91 said:

---

Site https://t.co/bYDMaP2eOl isn't precise but it's directionally accurate: Today it shows declining Rt in every state except Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Iowa; Rt below 1.0 in 14 states. Even as daily new cases fall and rate of spread slows, hospitals face many hard weeks

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) August 16, 2021

---

Let's hope those positive trends continue. The next two weeks will definitely be telling.

---

Really want to see all the CDC data today. Increased testing (especially institutional/university/etc) and clusters mucking some of the stuff up, imo.

Also, get a few days past that reported cases backlog (not that case data is everything.. or anything... but media loves it)

---

University testing is going to be a mess and mess is a polite word. You are going to find cases with weekly random testing and quarantine tracing and quarantines will be plentiful. The next two to three weeks, as it regards universities, are going to be very rough.

Take for example Duke University. Required vaccinations and 100% (or close to it) are vaccinated. They had two reported clusters last week on campus. One involving a significant number of their field hockey team and one involving the med school, ironically. With those results, you can only imagine what the public universities will look like this week and next as testing ramps up.

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Packchem91 said:

---

griff17matt said:

---

Packchem91 said:

---

griff17matt said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

wilmwolf80 said:

---

As for kids wearing masks in schools, my two cents is that priority number one is having kids in schools. If that means they have to wear masks to satisfy the Twitter brigades, it sucks, but it's better than virtual learning. Kids need to be in schools so parents can go to work.

With that said, if they are going the mask route in schools, then there should not be any stoppages or quarantines if there are positive tests. If we are all in on the masks protect kids train, then that's that. There has to be an end game. The cycle of quarantines and mask mandates has to stop somewhere.

---

No reason why it can't. India seems to have put down their Delta epidemic in just five weeks with the widespread use of Ivermectin. Monoclonal antibody treatment is another promising option. Wrecking lives, personal liberties and the Economy with dark age measures like mask mandates and lockdowns should never be an option.

---

India had strict lockdowns in their large cities.

---

Yeah I have some staff in India....it was very strict. Also extremely under-vaccinated, at least when the large spike started.

---

Still are. We have to remember how seriously underdeveloped the country is as a whole though. Like 6% are fully vaccinated I think?

My counterparts are in India and they were only allowed to leave for the grocery store or pharmacy I think. And that was restricted to like once or twice a week I think. It was baaaad bad for a hot minute there. One guy had something like 5 or 6 people in his apartment building die in the delta wave and a few family members too. Brutal. His stories to me were really the catalyst to get me thinking about getting the vaccine before it's FDA approved. It was really, really bad really, really quickly.

Part of my resistance is that I've already had it in the first wave before we knew what it was. I've got too many kids counting on me to be alive to be a stickler over this though. I dunno. I just hate how politicized and fearmongered it has become. I feel like I can't trust anyone to give me legit unvarnished truth without some ulterior motive.

---

So I chatted with one of my guys today in Bangalore (~9mm people).

• No longer on lockdown, except in some very specific neighborhoods where case counts increase
• Masks are required everywhere in public -- you are fined rupees if you are caught w/o one
• Schools are remote.
• Some office buildings are back open, but only about 40% in person at this point
• They have vaccinated over 545mm people. The messaging is very much "this will not prevent you from getting Covid, but will limit your chances of getting super sick/dying"
• I don't think he really understood my question about people fighting back about masking and vaccine requirements.

---

The guys I talk to daily in India are still all working remote. We have not reopened our offices in Bangalore.

---

Thats what he said about his coworkers as well...i know our offices there are also still predominantly closed; though he did let me know our company is helping conduct vaccination drives for employees and their fams, which was different from here in the States.

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Daviewolf83 said:

---

statefan91 said:

---

Site https://t.co/bYDMaP2eOl isn't precise but it's directionally accurate: Today it shows declining Rt in every state except Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Iowa; Rt below 1.0 in 14 states. Even as daily new cases fall and rate of spread slows, hospitals face many hard weeks

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) August 16, 2021

---

Let's hope those positive trends continue. The next two weeks will definitely be telling.

---

Really want to see all the CDC data today. Increased testing (especially institutional/university/etc) and clusters mucking some of the stuff up, imo.

Also, get a few days past that reported cases backlog (not that case data is everything.. or anything... but media loves it)

---

University testing is going to be a mess and mess is a polite word. You are going to find cases with weekly random testing and quarantine tracing and quarantines will be plentiful. The next two to three weeks, as it regards universities, are going to be very rough.

Take for example Duke University. Required vaccinations and 100% (or close to it) are vaccinated. They had two reported clusters last week on campus. One involving a significant number of their field hockey team and one involving the med school, ironically. With those results, you can only imagine what the public universities will look like this week and next as testing ramps up.

---

Sounds a whole lot like last fall -- so the real question is, did we learn anything and now handle it better?

"the science is clear" LOL

It's so "clear", but the "science" is also always changing.

So I was out of pocket since last Thursday, how long is the new Wake county mask mandate in effect for? A quick glance over the news articles doesnt say how long its supposed to go.

Either way, not happy at all about it.

FlossyDFlynt said:

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So I was out of pocket since last Thursday, how long is the new Wake county mask mandate in effect for? A quick glance over the news articles doesnt say how long its supposed to go.

Either way, not happy at all about it.

---

It's not even a real mandate. The official legal document explicitly states in the declaration that it is only to "encourage VOLUNTARY compliance". The declaration also does not even specify any penalties for not complying with it. And many businesses are not enforcing it. I went to Chipotle in Raleigh for lunch on Saturday (2 days ago), and they were not enforcing anything. I called to another Chipotle in Durham to see about the Durham County mask mandate, and the employee there told me "we are not enforcing it".

Here is the official legal document....see section 3 near the end for the language about it being for "voluntary" compliance.

https://raleighnc.gov/SupportPages/proclamation-require-face-coverings-indoors

Quote:

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Section 3. Implementation.

The intent of this declaration is to encourage voluntary compliance with the requirements established herein by businesses and persons within the City of Raleigh. Law enforcement and other public safety and emergency management personnel are strongly encouraged to educate and encourage voluntary compliance with this order.

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At the very end of the document it specifies that it "shall remain in effect until modified or rescinded". So no timetable on how long it will remain in effect.

Also, if a business does try to enforce this...all you have to do to not wear a mask is tell them that you qualify for a health/medical exemption (per the listed exemptions in the language of the declaration)...such as having difficulty breathing while wearing a mask. And the business can NOT ask you for any documentation/proof of your condition. Everyone is on the "honor system".

Duke hospital in Durham is out of ICU beds. Nearly all unvaxed. Friend that works in the NICU said they are scrambling to come up with extra space for incoming patients.

BREAKING: Mecklenburg County and the city of Charlotte are implementing indoor mask mandates effective Wednesday #MeckBOCC #CLTCC @wsoctv

— Joe Bruno (@JoeBrunoWSOC9) August 16, 2021

Oldsouljer said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Way: if nothing else today...thank you for expanding my vocab today -- I had never ever heard of "nosocomial". I like that word now. Well, the sound of it.... don't like its result.

---

Don't feel bad, most people don't read Bio science journals for a living and nosocomial isn't exactly used much outside of clinical discussions.

---

Just wanted to inject a little humor...
another word rarely, if ever, encountered outside of medical circles is steatorrhea (an excess of fat in feces).

A crude definition would be "heavy sh.."

mrcpack17 said:

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Duke hospital in Durham is out of ICU beds. Nearly all unvaxed. Friend that works in the NICU said they are scrambling to come up with extra space for incoming patients.

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Surprising, based on the graphs I posted late yesterday. Compared to other areas of the state, Duke and Raleigh hospitals are not seeing near the impact other hospital groups are seeing. Also, the number of people hospitalized and in ICU is just over half what it was in January. The percentage of patients in ICU's is 25% and this is consistent across the state in all hospital groups.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Rex is having issues with beds right now as well. Vast majority are unvaxed according to a few I've spoken with over the past week. Vaxed or not, I just wish things would get better, not for one side or the other, but for everyone.

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It will get better. Already seeing some signs in other states that they are over the peak. It will also get better, regardless of the requirement for vaccinated people to wear masks.

Glasswolf said:

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My daughter's mother now has Covid. Most likely caught it at the concert Friday night. She's feeling pretty bad. Daughter is in quarantine for 10 days with only a headache so far. Praying for quick healing as she is getting married end of October

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Glass, sorry to hear about that. Hopefully, your daughter will not get feeling too rough...

PackFansXL said:

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Glasswolf said:

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My daughter's mother now has Covid. Most likely caught it at the concert Friday night. She's feeling pretty bad. Daughter is in quarantine for 10 days with only a headache so far. Praying for quick healing as she is getting married end of October

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Prayers lifted.

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Thanks. The mom has been vaccinated and has only minor symptoms. Daughter hasn't been vaccinated. It's her choice as to get the shot or not. I'll support her regardless

Could the recent spike in RSV be one of the unintended costs for isolating children last year and keeping them out of school? Something to consider when you read this article. Also, does this mean there will be two spikes in RSV this year, instead of one. I suspect there is a good chance of that happening.

By the way, the focus on RSV is important, since RSV is leading to pediatric hospitalizations and impacting the capacity for pediatric beds at a time Covid is also increasing in some areas. A quote from the article:

" 'In my 30 years as a pediatric emergency physician at Children's Minnesota, we've never seen this level of RSV illness in the middle of summer,' said Dr. Robert Sicoli, medical director of the Emergency Department."

Rare summer spike in RSV cases

Have you seen anything from schools on covid spread in busses? My oldest really wants to ride the bus to school and I was fine with it but am now having some minor concerns on if that's a good idea.

ED data finally posted today through 8/13 (with understood backlog).

Most we have seen this curve bend down, and it has been predictive the the past with cases.



Zooming in to just recent weeks.

Wayland said:

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ED data finally posted today through 8/13 (with understood backlog).

Most we have seen this curve bend down, and it has been predictive the the past with cases.



Zooming in to just recent weeks.

---

One of WRAL's leading infectious disease doctors said in a television interview last week that he expects the current wave of Delta infections to NOT PEAK until late October or early November.

My view, based on the data and my projections - he is wrong. I am not sure what data he is looking at to come to his conclusion and if we did not have vaccines, it might be possible for him to be right. We have vaccines and we know that vaccines are much more effective in preventing infection than any mask could ever provide.