caryking said:
Packchem91 said:
Civilized said:
caryking said:
Have you seen the data out of Israel? Two things as I understand it:
- 90% + are vaccinated
- Same % are getting COVID
- Now they are saying that vaccines have about a 6 month life
So, the vaccines are more like prophylactic than a real vaccine... ok, I know that last statement is out there; however, what's the real difference at this point...
This is the exact same circumstance that we discussed two weeks ago in the UK.
If 50% of new cases are in the vaxxed, and 50% in the unvaxxed, but 90% are vaccinated it means vaccines are working extremely well.
Think of it this way, if you take a sample of 100 adults in Israel, 10 would be unvaxxed and 90 would be vaxxed. Of the 10 unvaxxed, 3 may pop positive. Of the 90 vaxxed, 3 would pop positive. 10 unvaxxed Israelis are generating the same number of positives as 90 vaxxed Israelis. That's great real-world effectiveness at preventing infection.
And that doesn't even speak to the effectiveness of vaccines at preventing serious or fatal COVID.
Also nobody is saying the vaccines have a 6 month "life." It's being speculated that vaccine protection against infection starts to wane after 6 months, however protection against serious or fatal COVID seems to continue to be robust.
You keep spelling out that math, and some people keep ignoring it.
I must be bad at math, let me try this...
100 adults in Israel, 90 are vaxxed, 10 are unvaxxed. Of the 100 adults in Israel, 10 go into the hospital. Of the ten, 9 are vaxxed, 1 is not. So, if you multiply that out, the number doesn't change. The vaxxed are going in at a higher rate.
Please tell me where my math is wrong... and according to the real world Israeli doctor, he contends that the shelf life of the vaccine is 6 months.
I see what may have caused the issue. I said "same percent getting COVID". I should have said the same percent is going into the hospital with COVID.
Can you provide a link to the article where you go the information? This would help me to understand what the doctor is saying. Also, "shelf life" is not the same thing as a measure of how long the vaccine will provide protection. What did the doctor mean when he said shelf life?
The reason I ask is the following:
1) In hospitals in NC, most patients admitted to the hospital are unvaccinated and this figure is greater than 90%.
2) Manufacturers, such as Moderna, have said recently that their vaccine has an efficacy over 90%, even after six months.
3) Infectious disease doctors (some quoted on this thread in the past) have said medically and biologically, the vaccines should have long-lasting protection against the virus that causes Covid-19.
4) While someone who is vaccinated can become infected with the virus, some recent studies (one out of Israel) shows vaccinated individuals are infected for a shorter period of time and shed less virus than people who are unvaccinated and become infected.
One of the big mistakes the CDC has made over the past several months is by stating that people who and become infected can infect people at the same rate as unvaccinated people. The first study they referenced was a discredited study out of India that is currently undergoing significant revision. The second was based on a town in Mass. In this study, it demonstrated that vaccines clearly worked to limit Covid severity, but the CDC tried to use it to demonstrate a need to mask. In this study, they also did not sample the viral load and if they did not do this, they could not comment on how easily a vaccinated person could transmit.
