All good points and I appreciate the civil discussion. Here are my basic thoughts:
1. When people hear Dr. Fauci (and others) say we will likely be masking into 2022, you get strong reactions and you have seen this start to play out on social media over the past few days. As I have mentioned before, Dr. Fauci's method of messaging this is very bad. I think I understand what he is doing and quite frankly, he needs to stop doing it. I really believe there are people on the fence as to if they should vaccinated and if you tell them you can not go to movies, you have to continue to social distance, and you are likely going to wear a mask until 2022, they will decide it is not worth it to get vaccinated.
2. I agree with Mormad that some people who are still waiting to get vaccinated may decide to just stop wearing masks and return to normal, when they see those who have been vaccinated (or previously infected) resuming normal activities. Basically, we are keeping the limitations in place for everyone because we do not trust others to act responsibly. It makes sense, but it also leads to distrust of those who are making the rules. At some point, we have to get to the point where those who are vaccinated can act normally. We have had bad messaging, since this started a year ago and it has only served to make many people distrustful of what they are being asked to do.
3. Based on the studies and reports I have seen in the past couple of weeks with regards to the ability of the vaccines to not only elicit strong antibody and T-Cell reactions, but to also significantly reduce transmission, it seems very likely we can begin to allow those who are vaccinated to resume normal activities. I have posted many times that I believe we will be dealing with the coronavirus and cases of infection for years to come. The key is to get the levels down to something we consider acceptable as a society. What is this level? I believe it is on the same order of magnitude as yearly flu. We, as a society, have accepted a certain level of infections and deaths (not an insignificant number) on a yearly basis and the coronavirus should be no exception.
4. As to wearing masks during flu season, it makes sense for people who are sick. I know in previous posts it was mentioned this was a practice in Asian countries (particularly Japan) and it is true, but only for those who are sick. I know this first hand, having traveled to Japan a couple of times a year for many years. Healthy people in those countries are not the ones wearing masks in public. It is the sick people who are wearing masks. So, as we approach the cold and flu seasons in the coming years, if sick people want to wear a mask in public to protect others - fine. We should not continue to expect healthy people to wear a mask during those seasons. It is not something I intend to do.
5. There are real costs to keeping things locked down for many more months. These costs are not only economic, but they directly effect people's mental health. I just got off a call with my manager and all of the other managers who work for him. We are very concerned about our direct employees and their mental health and morale. We are trying to come up with ways to relieve some of the stress they face with working from home. The lack of direct social interaction is a real problem. Zoom calls can only go so far in helping with social interaction. I have recently started to read some articles on the downsides people are starting to experience after a year of working from home. For some people, it is fine, but for many people, they must have direct, daily face-to-face interaction with their co-workers.
6. Hopefully, in the Fall sports and college football return to normal. I know this is the hope of my son and his teammates. You can not ask them to go through another season like the one they just went through. I can not describe how hard it was for them and I can not imagine they would willingly do it again. One key reason my son decided to return for his fifth year of football was due to the fact that he wanted to have a more normal season. He did not want this last year to be his final memory of playing college football. He does not want to be tested over 60 times again. He does not want to have to wear a mask for all weigh-lifting/conditioning, practices, and games. He told me he wants to have a normal Senior Day next November, where we can be on the field with him and he does not have to wear a mask for his picture.
Bottom line, at some point we are going to have to start returning to more normal lives. People will continue to contract the virus, even after wide-spread vaccinations. It will be scary and a lot of people will continue to fear this virus for years to come. Personally, I believe we should continue to mask and social distance until we get to a point where at least half of the eligible population is vaccinated (we are close to 20% of those having their first dose right now), which is likely to be in mid to late Summer. At that point, open up and get back to normal. Stop wearing masks. Return to your in-person jobs. Attend sporting events, movies, and concerts. Do not over-react when you continue to see and hear of people becoming infected. It will happen and it will not mean we have to shut everything down again.
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