Completed my 3rd COVID plasma donation and confirmed to still have antibodies
Coronavirus
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Coming out of the weekend, I thought everyone would appreciate and update on vaccination progress and vaccine news.
For the US and NC, here are the current vaccination numbers:
US Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 75,197,418
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 63,090,634 <== 13.1% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 83.9%
NC Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 2,364,005
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 2,068,505 <== 13.1% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 87.5%
In other vaccine news:
1. A study out of Israel offers very encouraging news regarding the Pfizer vaccine. It found that the vaccine is able to stop almost 90% effective in preventing viral infection. In other words, it is 90% effective in stopping transmission. If this turns out to be accurate, it should mean people who have been fully vaccinated should not have to wear masks and social distance. They are not at risk of both becoming infected and transmitting the virus. Read more here:
Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid Spread, Israeli Study Shows
2. In other Pfizer news, they will be submitting information to the FDA that requests the following:
3. Expect the J&J vaccine to be approved by the FDA at the end of this week and supply to begin shipping early next week. As mentioned before, initial shipments will be small, but hopefully will ramp up to approximately 1M per day by the end of March.
4. Expect vaccine shipments to recover from the impact of the Winter storms by early this week and vaccinations to ramp accordingly. I should point out that vaccine administration did not take as big of a hit as I expected (see chart below) and if we can get the doses distributed, we should recover quickly and could begin to meet or even exceed the 150M doses in 100 days target. Some believe our next bottleneck will not be supply of vaccine, but the boots on the ground needed to administer the shots.
5. The US government really needs to clean-up/fix their messaging around Covid-19 and the effectiveness of the vaccines to get us back to normal. Having Dr. Fauci and others go on news programs and say that even with large scale vaccinations we may not return to normal until late this year and could be masking into 2022 does not help to make the case for getting a vaccine. If we can not return to normal after getting large numbers of people vaccinated, what should people rush to be vaccinated?
6. More close to home, I did want to provide some insight into the numbers reported daily by NCDHHS with regards to infections in NC. Overall, hospitalizations in NC continue to plummet. Additionally, the percent positive testing rate is now averaging 6.7% for the last 7-day average and the last few days it has been below 6%. Additionally, despite the news provided by WRAL and others, deaths are dropping. The large numbers of deaths still being reported are due to very old data being pulled into daily reports. For example, yesterday over half the deaths reported were from a month ago or later.
7. Why are cases, percent positives, and deaths declining so rapidly nationwide? I read an interesting opinion article by Dr. Paul Sax in the New England Journal of Medicine that proposed it is likely due to a combination of the following (in this order):
Why are Covid-19 Case Numbers Dropping?
Here are the graphs for the total doses administered for the US and NC, as of this morning.
US Total Vaccine Doses Administered (Bloomberg Data Tracker):
NC Total Vaccine Doses Administered (Bloomberg Data Tracker):
For the US and NC, here are the current vaccination numbers:
US Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 75,197,418
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 63,090,634 <== 13.1% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 83.9%
NC Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 2,364,005
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 2,068,505 <== 13.1% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 87.5%
In other vaccine news:
1. A study out of Israel offers very encouraging news regarding the Pfizer vaccine. It found that the vaccine is able to stop almost 90% effective in preventing viral infection. In other words, it is 90% effective in stopping transmission. If this turns out to be accurate, it should mean people who have been fully vaccinated should not have to wear masks and social distance. They are not at risk of both becoming infected and transmitting the virus. Read more here:
Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid Spread, Israeli Study Shows
2. In other Pfizer news, they will be submitting information to the FDA that requests the following:
- Removes the requirement to transmit and store the vaccine at ultra-cold temperatures. Like Moderna, would store at normal refrigerator temperatures.
- Increase the timeframe between the two doses significantly, effectively increasing the ability to get shots in arms. The data suggests the Pfizer vaccine could have an efficacy of 85% after one dose. The CDC is considering adopting the UK approach of delaying the second dose to 12 weeks after the first dose, to get more shots in arms quicker. This is how the UK is beating the US in getting shots in arms.
3. Expect the J&J vaccine to be approved by the FDA at the end of this week and supply to begin shipping early next week. As mentioned before, initial shipments will be small, but hopefully will ramp up to approximately 1M per day by the end of March.
4. Expect vaccine shipments to recover from the impact of the Winter storms by early this week and vaccinations to ramp accordingly. I should point out that vaccine administration did not take as big of a hit as I expected (see chart below) and if we can get the doses distributed, we should recover quickly and could begin to meet or even exceed the 150M doses in 100 days target. Some believe our next bottleneck will not be supply of vaccine, but the boots on the ground needed to administer the shots.
5. The US government really needs to clean-up/fix their messaging around Covid-19 and the effectiveness of the vaccines to get us back to normal. Having Dr. Fauci and others go on news programs and say that even with large scale vaccinations we may not return to normal until late this year and could be masking into 2022 does not help to make the case for getting a vaccine. If we can not return to normal after getting large numbers of people vaccinated, what should people rush to be vaccinated?
6. More close to home, I did want to provide some insight into the numbers reported daily by NCDHHS with regards to infections in NC. Overall, hospitalizations in NC continue to plummet. Additionally, the percent positive testing rate is now averaging 6.7% for the last 7-day average and the last few days it has been below 6%. Additionally, despite the news provided by WRAL and others, deaths are dropping. The large numbers of deaths still being reported are due to very old data being pulled into daily reports. For example, yesterday over half the deaths reported were from a month ago or later.
7. Why are cases, percent positives, and deaths declining so rapidly nationwide? I read an interesting opinion article by Dr. Paul Sax in the New England Journal of Medicine that proposed it is likely due to a combination of the following (in this order):
- Seasonality
- Herd Immunity
- Behavior
- Vaccines
- Virus
Why are Covid-19 Case Numbers Dropping?
Here are the graphs for the total doses administered for the US and NC, as of this morning.
US Total Vaccine Doses Administered (Bloomberg Data Tracker):
NC Total Vaccine Doses Administered (Bloomberg Data Tracker):
Davie - I've googled but can't find much information on this question I have - is there a better vaccine to get depending on if you've already recovered from COVID?
I have read that the J&J vaccine is different than the approach Moderna and Pfizer took, so wasn't sure if it matters or not.
I have read that the J&J vaccine is different than the approach Moderna and Pfizer took, so wasn't sure if it matters or not.
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I have not seen any information that specifically answers your question and I would suggest any of the vaccines are good to get, if they are approved by the FDA. I did see an article a couple of weeks ago, suggesting that people who have had Covid-19 and recovered might only need to get a single dose, but I do not believe there are any stated guidelines or policies around this yet (if there are, I may have missed them).statefan91 said:
Davie - I've googled but can't find much information on this question I have - is there a better vaccine to get depending on if you've already recovered from COVID?
I have read that the J&J vaccine is different than the approach Moderna and Pfizer took, so wasn't sure if it matters or not.
I will defer to PackPA and Mormad, who can provide advice and the information they have on this topic.
I have been very pleasantly surprised by the high demand for the vaccine. People are much more willing to receive the vaccine than I first anticipated, even in my rural area. Great news!
Thanks for sharing that article. It provides good insight based on the data that we have so far. I am glad it addressed the WSJ article directly. A few of my family members had shared that on Facebook proclaiming that we have now "defeated the virus" and messages of "open up now". I think that is definitely a little premature. We are making incredible strides so far, but it is not "over" just yet. Now, when we get to fall, I like our chances. Thanks Davie!
Thanks for sharing that article. It provides good insight based on the data that we have so far. I am glad it addressed the WSJ article directly. A few of my family members had shared that on Facebook proclaiming that we have now "defeated the virus" and messages of "open up now". I think that is definitely a little premature. We are making incredible strides so far, but it is not "over" just yet. Now, when we get to fall, I like our chances. Thanks Davie!
I have not seen a ton of information that addresses your question. All vaccines seem to work well regardless of whether you have had COVID or not. The study I linked below showed strong antibody response in individuals whom have had COVID previously with both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. J&J was not a part of the study.
Personally, I think if you have the opportunity, no matter which brand it is, go ahead and get those doses. You should have ample antibody response after any of them. Great question!
1 Dose of Vaccine after Having Covid
Personally, I think if you have the opportunity, no matter which brand it is, go ahead and get those doses. You should have ample antibody response after any of them. Great question!
1 Dose of Vaccine after Having Covid
Thank you both!
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
Unfortunately, that second dose can be a doozy. I have found in my patients, those whom have had COVID previously before getting the vaccine had a more difficult time with the 1st dose. Those whom have not had COVID tend to have had a more difficult time with the second dose.cowboypack02 said:
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
I was the opposite. I never had COVID and had more symptoms, albeit very mild, with the first dose. Second dose I felt fine.
Glad you are feeling better!
Jeez man glad you're feeling better, that didn't sound fun.cowboypack02 said:
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
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I am happy you are feeling better now and sorry you had such bad symptoms. It is so strange how the vaccines affect everyone so differently.cowboypack02 said:
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
Ugh. Glad to hear you're feeling better. I have my second this weekend. Not looking forward to it. Have a busy week next week and can't afford to have days off. Shockingly, the vaccine is causing more concern for my personal well being than the virus ever has during this pandemic. Not that I expect anything terrible.
packgrad said:
Ugh. Glad to hear you're feeling better. I have my second this weekend. Not looking forward to it. Have a busy week next week and can't afford to have days off. Shockingly, the vaccine is causing more concern for my personal well being than the virus ever has during this pandemic. Not that I expect anything terrible.
Good news is that at least you know whatever negative impacts you have from the vaccine will likely only last a day.
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Thanks for posting. The article talks specifically about how the mRNA vaccines work. Have you seen anything regarding J&J or AstraZeneca regarding side-effects for those vaccines? I know J&J is just one dose, so I did not know if it was less prone to side-effects than the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.Mormad said:
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/if-you-dont-get-sick-after-your-covid-19-vaccination-does-it-mean-your-immune-system-isnt-working/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=cc+tweets
Just curious... what qualified you to get the vaccine this early into the process? Thanks.cowboypack02 said:
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
Sources are saying Governor Cooper is announcing a reduction in restrictions soon specifically regarding high school and college athletic events.
TheStorm said:Just curious... what qualified you to get the vaccine this early into the process? Thanks.cowboypack02 said:
Got my second Moderna vaccine shot Saturday afternoon. I was fine until about 11 on Sunday morning. My temp ran between 102 and 103 for the most part with it spiking at 104.1 yesterday morning. Had a fever, chills a horrible headache and stomach issues for the better part of 24 hours. I took a cold bath about 10 yesterday morning and then went back to bed. When I woke up about 3 yesterday afternoon I felt fine.
Just a bit tired now....but I haven't felt that bad since I had my kidney stones in 2010
Honestly....dumb luck
Vidant is started doing a vaccination clinic on a Saturday last month. At the end of the day when all of the appointments were finished and there were shots left over the staff started calling people they thought would come and get shots. My mother in law was working and called me. Asked if I wanted a shot, I told her I did so she told me that I had 15 minutes to get down there. I showed up and they gave me a shot
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This may have been discussed already and if so I apologize in advance. On Jan 13, almost 1 month to the day after the first vaccine was given, Covid cases fell off a cliff. Has it been determined that the drop in cases and deaths was solely or primarily due to the vaccines?
Good on you for being at the ready and making sure a shot isn't wasted
My dad, 73 and very over weight, has had quadruple bypass, had COVID back in December. Got shot one of Pfizer in mid January and the second mid February. He had zero side effects from either does of vaccination. I was thrilled for him.
My wife, 37, runs 6 miles a day, has a 6 pack, has had a terrible time with COVID. She tested positive 3 weeks ago and still has shortness of breath, chest/back pain and pressure, and literally can't lay flat now without too much chest pressure. She wakes up at night and freaks me out because she can't breath. Chest x ray and CT's are clear. It is amazing how random COVID is.
The vaccine news continues to be very encouraging. My company is making vaccine privacy booths for 1,500 drug store locations currently. I am happy we are finally able to do something positive for the efforts to get shots in arms. After having COVID and seeing my wife now, I can tell you I am extra motivated to do what we can to get shots in arms.
My wife, 37, runs 6 miles a day, has a 6 pack, has had a terrible time with COVID. She tested positive 3 weeks ago and still has shortness of breath, chest/back pain and pressure, and literally can't lay flat now without too much chest pressure. She wakes up at night and freaks me out because she can't breath. Chest x ray and CT's are clear. It is amazing how random COVID is.
The vaccine news continues to be very encouraging. My company is making vaccine privacy booths for 1,500 drug store locations currently. I am happy we are finally able to do something positive for the efforts to get shots in arms. After having COVID and seeing my wife now, I can tell you I am extra motivated to do what we can to get shots in arms.
Steve Williams said:
This may have been discussed already and if so I apologize in advance. On Jan 13, almost 1 month to the day after the first vaccine was given, Covid cases fell off a cliff. Has it been determined that the drop in cases and deaths was solely or primarily due to the vaccines?
No data, but I would think part of the drop off is due to distance in time from Christmas events when people were congregating.
"The NCAA's business model would be flatly illegal in almost every other industry in America...The NCAA is not above the law."
Murphy vs. NCAA, 594 U.S. ____ (2021)
Murphy vs. NCAA, 594 U.S. ____ (2021)
bsorry11 said:Steve Williams said:
This may have been discussed already and if so I apologize in advance. On Jan 13, almost 1 month to the day after the first vaccine was given, Covid cases fell off a cliff. Has it been determined that the drop in cases and deaths was solely or primarily due to the vaccines?
No data, but I would think part of the drop off is due to distance in time from Christmas events when people were congregating.
Davie's looked at this stuff pretty hard as have others.
The holidays seem to just be coincidental and not causal for the huge winter spike because cases started skyrocketing 3 weeks before Thanksgiving and just never slowed down.
Most people seem to attribute that to seasonality, since the cold weather drove everyone indoors.
Similarly, the steep decline started before enough vaccine had rolled out for the vaccine to be the cause, at least mostly.
Like the sharp upswing in November, the downturn seems to correlate to other coronavirus and flu virus behaviors, i.e. their seasonality.
Viruses really, really like people spending more time in crowded indoor environments.
Hopefully my 6 year old won't have to continue to wear a mask to play soccer because that's about the stupidest s*** I've ever seen.
And also, I've already had Covid. Why the hell do I have to wear a mask?
And also, I've already had Covid. Why the hell do I have to wear a mask?
WarrenPeace said:
Hopefully my 6 year old won't have to continue to wear a mask to play soccer because that's about the stupidest s*** I've ever seen.
And also, I've already had Covid. Why the hell do I have to wear a mask?
They are telling people who have already had the vaccine that they need to continue to wear mask.
cowboypack02 said:WarrenPeace said:
Hopefully my 6 year old won't have to continue to wear a mask to play soccer because that's about the stupidest s*** I've ever seen.
And also, I've already had Covid. Why the hell do I have to wear a mask?
They are telling people who have already had the vaccine that they need to continue to wear mask.
Kids playing soccer in masks is ridiculous
I think there are at least 3 reasonable thoughts behind masking after infection or vaccination, but the risk to others once you've had either is so small. At least now they're admitting you shouldn't have to quarantine after exposure if you're vaccinated, so there is predictably a slight shift toward (a new) normalcy.
Daviewolf83 said:Thanks for posting. The article talks specifically about how the mRNA vaccines work. Have you seen anything regarding J&J or AstraZeneca regarding side-effects for those vaccines? I know J&J is just one dose, so I did not know if it was less prone to side-effects than the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.Mormad said:
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/if-you-dont-get-sick-after-your-covid-19-vaccination-does-it-mean-your-immune-system-isnt-working/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=cc+tweets
I do not know those numbers, Davie. I'm sure there are SEs as with any vax or treatment, but i don't remember that comparative data. Sorry. I tried to find something last night and shot an air ball.
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Thanks Mormad. I appreciate you taking the time to look into it. I was just curious, since the way the mRNA vaccines work seems to be a little different from a couple of the other vaccines. I am sure this is something that will get a lot of study going forward.Mormad said:Daviewolf83 said:Thanks for posting. The article talks specifically about how the mRNA vaccines work. Have you seen anything regarding J&J or AstraZeneca regarding side-effects for those vaccines? I know J&J is just one dose, so I did not know if it was less prone to side-effects than the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.Mormad said:
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/if-you-dont-get-sick-after-your-covid-19-vaccination-does-it-mean-your-immune-system-isnt-working/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=cc+tweets
I do not know those numbers, Davie. I'm sure there are SEs as with any vax or treatment, but i don't remember that comparative data. Sorry. I tried to find something last night and shot an air ball.
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Steve - The following article I posted a link to a couple of days ago provides a very good summary of the causes of the decline in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. As Civilized mentioned, the data I have been tracking for almost a year now indicated pretty clearly that the growth in cases and hospitalizations began weeks before the Thanksgiving holiday. If you consider that hospitalizations are a trailing indicator, infections likely started to grow in late September/early October when the weather started to turn cold.Steve Williams said:
This may have been discussed already and if so I apologize in advance. On Jan 13, almost 1 month to the day after the first vaccine was given, Covid cases fell off a cliff. Has it been determined that the drop in cases and deaths was solely or primarily due to the vaccines?
I really encourage you and others read the following article on the decline written by Dr. Paul Sax in the New England Journal of Medicine:
Why are Covid-19 Case Numbers Dropping?
Primary causes of decline in priority order:
- Seasonality
- Herd Immunity
- Behavior
- Vaccines
- Virus
Below is a graph of the current daily hospitalization data for NC:
Hope your wife feels better soon... and congrats on being married to a woman with a 6 pack. That's impressive for 37 especially if you have kids.WPNfamily said:
My dad, 73 and very over weight, has had quadruple bypass, had COVID back in December. Got shot one of Pfizer in mid January and the second mid February. He had zero side effects from either does of vaccination. I was thrilled for him.
My wife, 37, runs 6 miles a day, has a 6 pack, has had a terrible time with COVID. She tested positive 3 weeks ago and still has shortness of breath, chest/back pain and pressure, and literally can't lay flat now without too much chest pressure. She wakes up at night and freaks me out because she can't breath. Chest x ray and CT's are clear. It is amazing how random COVID is.
The vaccine news continues to be very encouraging. My company is making vaccine privacy booths for 1,500 drug store locations currently. I am happy we are finally able to do something positive for the efforts to get shots in arms. After having COVID and seeing my wife now, I can tell you I am extra motivated to do what we can to get shots in arms.
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Very good news on the J&J vaccine. It appears to have very good efficacy and it may reduce transmission of the virus by people who have been vaccinated. The key on this vaccine is it only requires one dose, so it should help to accelerate vaccinations - once the supply of the vaccine improves. Look for supply to ramp over the month of March.
As I have indicated in previous posts, the supply at time of approval will be below 10M doses and it now appears there will only be 4M doses available (I had seen numbers in the 6-7M dose range speculated). As I have indicated, they had manufacturing problems that limited the production of early doses, but they are expected to improve over the month.
As I have indicated in previous posts, the supply at time of approval will be below 10M doses and it now appears there will only be 4M doses available (I had seen numbers in the 6-7M dose range speculated). As I have indicated, they had manufacturing problems that limited the production of early doses, but they are expected to improve over the month.
Also some seating at bars and the alcohol curfew might be pushed back or lifted.
Mormad said:cowboypack02 said:WarrenPeace said:
Hopefully my 6 year old won't have to continue to wear a mask to play soccer because that's about the stupidest s*** I've ever seen.
And also, I've already had Covid. Why the hell do I have to wear a mask?
They are telling people who have already had the vaccine that they need to continue to wear mask.
Kids playing soccer in masks is ridiculous
I think there are at least 3 reasonable thoughts behind masking after infection or vaccination, but the risk to others once you've had either is so small. At least now they're admitting you shouldn't have to quarantine after exposure if you're vaccinated, so there is predictably a slight shift toward (a new) normalcy.
There may be but my opinion is those who have a real fear of something bad happening to them should mask up. Wear all the masks you want to, but me and my family? We've all had it with hardly any symptoms. I have nothing to fear with Covid. Why do I have to live like this?
Part of the issue is that they don't have a strong sense of how long your antibodies last, estimations are from 3-6 months (I'm hoping on 6 so I am covered until eligible for a vaccine).
There are also additional variants that appear to have a modified makeup and could infect you, so a mask could offer some protection against that as well.
There are also additional variants that appear to have a modified makeup and could infect you, so a mask could offer some protection against that as well.
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