Good news and bad news in the COVID articles for today. Cases and deaths continue to lessen. Vaccinations continue to increase, but new variants keep appearing. The one in NY has a mutation in the spike protein that causes the body to have a lessened immune response against it. It is definitely one to watch.


Good News - COVID Cases and Deaths Decreasing

Bad News - New Variant in NY is One to Watch



ETA: Here is an AP article discussing low flu cases. I know we all have discussed this previously.
Flu has Disappeared

As we get closer to the finish line here we'll hear a lot more about new variants. Media ain't gonna let this go without a fight, it's been a cash cow for them

Yes, media does sensationalize the variants. However, the NY variant is slightly different. Our vaccines mimic the spike protein on the outside of the virus. This spike protein is what allows the virus to enter our cells and infect us. If there is a variant in this spike protein, this could be a very significant mutation that likely would affect our vaccine effectiveness. It is similar to the South Africa variant which we believe does lower the vaccine effectiveness, but not significantly. We just need more data on this NY variant to make that call or not.

PackPA2015 said:

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Yes, media does sensationalize the variants. However, the NY variant is slightly different. Our vaccines mimic the spike protein on the outside of the virus. This spike protein is what allows the virus to enter our cells and infect us. If there is a variant in this spike protein, this could be a very significant mutation that likely would affect our vaccine effectiveness. It is similar to the South Africa variant which we believe does lower the vaccine effectiveness, but not significantly. We just need more data on this NY variant to make that call or not.

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Well, damn. A virus is gonna virus, ain't it. That is potentially really suck arse news. That is the one mutation that is a game changer.

PackPA2015 said:

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Good news and bad news in the COVID articles for today. Cases and deaths continue to lessen. Vaccinations continue to increase, but new variants keep appearing. The one in NY has a mutation in the spike protein that causes the body to have a lessened immune response against it. It is definitely one to watch.


Good News - COVID Cases and Deaths Decreasing

Bad News - New Variant in NY is One to Watch



ETA: Here is an AP article discussing low flu cases. I know we all have discussed this previously.
Flu has Disappeared

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Based on the article I posted last week with the interview of Dr. Mina of Harvard, he talked about mutations and how poorly the US doing in testing for mutations/variants across the population. I suspect there are a lot of variants present that we have no idea are present. Some of these variants will be successful and increase in prevalence and others will fail to spread and die out. Who knows what will happen with the new one from NY.

Last year, I do recall reading reports that suggest virus' typically become less virulent over time, so it would be interesting if the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 is becoming more deadly through mutation. I need to do some more research on this area to better understand the mechanisms that would cause them to become more virulent. I am sure it is possible, but I do not understand how this happens.

It is actually in a virus's best interest to become less deadly and to decrease it adverse effects on the human hosts. For example, I have seen some early studies on the UK mutation that suggest that while it was more contagious, it was not more likely to cause you to be hospitalized. Even though the prevalence of it increased in the UK, hospitalization increases could not be correlated to the increase in prevalence. I am sure this is still being studied, along with the South African variety.

The use of narrow spectrum vaccines (the current Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are narrow spectrum) is a limitation when the virus is effectively mutating. All our current vaccines are focused on the spike protein and as such, variations in the spike protein could decrease the vaccines effectiveness. As you pointed out, the current vaccines are still effective against some of these known mutations, but eventually there will be a mutation that can evade the bodies built-up antibodies and T-Cells. Let's all hope this does not happen.

Here's what Dr. Mina said on the vaccines and mutations in the referenced article:

"Another issue: All of the major vaccines that we are building all present the exact same spike protein. They're all clones of each other no difference for the most part. Nobody ever took a step back to say, what if this virus mutates? We are vaccinating with a narrow-spectrum vaccine against one piece of the virus. If that piece mutates, it would be able to escape all of our vaccines. And all it needs to do is mutate once, somewhere in the world. And then all of our major vaccines are moot. Why was that not considered?"

"And we're doing so little genetic surveillance of the disease here in the States, we don't even really know what strains are here. We're flying blind."

"We'd much rather just wait and then blame South America and blame the U.K. Meanwhile, we're probably getting the identical variants here not just because they're being brought in by travelers, but because they are probably being built right here in the U.S. through mutation and viral evolution. But now we can blame it on South America or South Africa and the U.K. instead of blaming it on ourselves."

Read the whole article here:
How Long Can Covid Cases Keep Plummeting?


As to a virus potentially becoming less virulent, here is what Dr. Paul Sax said in the article I linked earlier this week:

"Maybe the virus is doing us a favor and becoming less virulent over time. Perhaps some of these variants if not B.1.1.7 in order to gain the ability to transmit, also cause less severe disease."

"Take the virus's perspective yes, think like a virus and how this would be evolutionarily beneficial. More mild cases, more chance to spread its genetic material to other susceptible hosts. That's all viruses care about, right?"

Read the whole article here:
Why are Covid-19 Case Numbers Dropping?

The testing for variants is very odd. From what I have read, labs are just sampling various test samples for the specific variants. Is this what you have seen as well?

I agree wholeheartedly that we are not monitoring well enough. Hopefully, vaccine companies will continue to research and produce boosters that do not use the same exact spike protein. We need to get ahead of this in case it does happen. No one wants to repeat 2020.

I've read that with the mRNA vaccines it will be relatively quick and easy to modify them to account for mutations.

PackMom said:

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I've read that with the mRNA vaccines it will be relatively quick and easy to modify them to account for mutations.

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I think mRNA technology is money, PackMom. I wish i had invested a few years ago when i learned about these companies and their research/ applications when we were fighting for my niece's life trying to find a cure for rare diseases. Really brilliant stuff. My sister is in deep with this stuff now and understands it better than i ever will, and there are some really interesting things happening.

Mormad said:

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Btw, Davie, your interpretation of what you read and your application of your knowledge on this forum is really impressive to me given you don't have a formal medical background. Thanks for your informed, logical, reasonable, level headed input into this topic. I always enjoy your posts and find them hugely informative.

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Seconded. Thanks to Davie and Mormad and others!

I swear, every single time I think we are going in the right direction, something pops up that makes me think we will still be in 2020 mood well into 2022. I keep waiting to see the light at the end of the tunnel but it always seems to flicker out when something new pops up.

I know. It's so frustrating.

Sounds like the same methodology we use with the flu. New variants every year to account for with flu shot.

packgrad said:

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Sounds like the same methodology we use with the flu. New variants every year to account for with flu shot.

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I have been thinking the same thing, my friend. But hopefully more effective with better technology and a lesser mutating virus??

Saw on the news that FEMA is going to open a mass vaccination site at Four Seasons Mall in Greensboro. It will open March 10 and last eight weeks, providing up to 3000 vaccinations per day.

I'm expecting an annual Coronavirus vaccine much like the Flu vaccine.

Nice!

If my math is right, that's 168,000 vaccines. That's a good number.

That's in addition to NC's regular allocation, too, so even better.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editor*****s/article/COVID-19-variants-vaccines-effective-San-Francisco-15961073.php


Here's a good interview for you to read, rww26

Good read.

Yep. Same thoughts i had when reading the interview.

She is an infectious disease doc in San Fran who has been in the forefront of HIV management, who has a particular interest in covid. I have read a good deal of her stuff. She reposts many of the covid studies/articles with her thoughts and interpretations. She has an extremely positive outlook of the near future of covid management and the effectiveness of vaccines. I hope she's right.

Waiting for the disagreement to arrive in 3... 2... 1...

Very similar to the article Mormad posted, the following article in The Atlantic takes a similar tone, even discussing the idea of "harm reduction." As I have mentioned in a couple of recent posts, the messaging by Dr. Fauci and others really needs to improve and this article makes a very similar case. I encourage you to read this one, along with the article Mormad posted.

How the Public-Health Messaging Backfired

Weekends like this, we try to be outside as much as possible. I know it can't hurt that's for sure.