RunsWithWolves26 said:
Daviewolf83 said:
I just wanted to post some information that we should consider:
- Less than 1% of the US population lives in long-term care facilities, but people from these facilities make up 40% of all Covid deaths in the US.
- In NC, over 50% of the Covid deaths have come from Congregate facilities and the vast majority of these deaths are from long-term care facilities.
- This coming week, many states will begin significant operations to vaccinate people living and working in long-term care facilities. In many states, the vaccinations will be carried out by employees from Walgreens and CVS drug stores.
- West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut, and Florida have already started the vaccination of long-term care facilities. This week 1,100 long-term care facilities will begin vaccinations.
- The Moderna vaccine will be used outside of clinical trials for the first time this week. This vaccine is key for long-term care facilities and rural areas, since it does not require the extreme cold storage the Pfizer vaccine requires.
- In total, 2.8 million doses of Pfizer vaccine have been distributed to date. Also, more than 550,000 Americans have received the vaccine. This is likely an undercount of the real number.
- This week, an additional 10 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be distributed across America.
- Estimates for vaccine supply (based on 2 doses per person) for the coming months are:
- End of Dec: enough for 20M people
- End of Jan: enough for 30M more people
- End of Feb: enough for 50M more people
So, by the end of February, the US should be able to vaccinate 100M people.
- If Johnson & Johnson vaccine is approved, an additional 100M people by June could be vaccinated.
- If you are curious, you can download the allocation of vaccine by State and jurisdiction at the following links:
Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Distribution
Moderna Covid-19 Vaccine Distribution
- There are reports of a new coronavirus mutation from the UK and South Africa. Travel from the UK has been suspended by several other countries, due to the uncertainty caused by this new mutation.
- Early reports on the UK mutation indicate an increase in transmission, but not an increase in severity. It is unlikely the new mutation will effect the efficacy of the new vaccines. You can read more about these mutations in this NY Times article: The Coronvirus is Mutating. What does that mean for us?
Davie, great info. I talked with my brother for a short time over the weekend. I ask him when I could expect my vaccine. I'm a mid 30's healthy male and he said I would be looking at February. He said if the John and Johnson vaccine was approved early, they could have 200 million ready to go by the first of March. He works at Rex with his background in pharmacy and clinical research. Just wondering if he mispoke or if those numbers you found are off. Not sure which one it is. Regardless, it's good news either way.
It is possible that J&J will have 200M doses available in March, but the US government has only agreed to purchase 100M doses at this time.
Here's the breakdown by vaccine supply from Operation Warp Speed:
Pfizer = 100M doses (US government is negotiating to secure additional doses)
Moderna = 200M doses (Initial order was for 100M and last week, they secured an agreement for 100M more doses)
J&J = 100M doses
Novavax = 100M doses
Sanofi/GlaxoSmithKline = 100M doses
AstraZeneca = 300M doses
The J&J vaccine is now in Phase 3 trials and the trials are fully enrolled with 43,000 candidates worldwide. If trials go well, they expect to file for EUA in February and if approved, supply could start to ramp in early March. Based on the info I saw, it will take a couple of months to ramp distribution of the 100M doses.