The answer is....Proof in the Pudding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or not only Oklahoma. My dog knows better.FlossyDFlynt said:Do you just respond to anything that doesnt meet your world view with a mountain of links that no one reads?ciscopack said:Nothing in El Paso for sure....just ordered more morgue truck-trailers.FlossyDFlynt said:
Of all the hospitals I work with (client has sites all over the country), only Oklahoma is having issues with regards to COVID patients, but its still not enough to disrupt their normal workflows as far as I know. Its obviously anecdotal, but thought I would throw that out there.
As Hospitalizations Soar, El Paso Brings In New Mobile Morgues
US hits record COVID-19 hospitalizations amid virus surge
Some hospitals are running out of health care workers.
Nationwide, 61,964 patients were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's the highest number since this pandemic began.
"We're already seeing our hospitals at breaking point in some parts of the country. And that means it doesn't just affect patients with coronavirus," Wen said.
"It also means that elective surgeries are being put off for things like hip replacements, for cancer surgery or heart surgery in some cases."
W MI hospitals work to make space for COVID-19 patients
As U.S. Breaks Hospitalization Records, N.Y. and Other States Add Restrictions
The Worst Day of the Pandemic Since May
COVID-19 spike stirs concern about shortage of hospital space, PPE
Covid-19 Live Updates: U.S. Hospitalizations Top 61,000, a Record
Gov. Brown pleads with Oregonians to stay home as COVID-19 strains hospital capacity
Lamont eyes hospitalizations as 36 more people admitted for COVID-19
Conn.
South Dakota leads all states in number of COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized per million
Ohio governor warns hospitals could be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases in 'a few short weeks'
There is an obvious leadership vacuum. Who is in charge?
Coronavirus
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If you had actually read my post:ciscopack said:The answer is....Proof in the Pudding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or not only Oklahoma. My dog knows better.FlossyDFlynt said:Do you just respond to anything that doesnt meet your world view with a mountain of links that no one reads?ciscopack said:Nothing in El Paso for sure....just ordered more morgue truck-trailers.FlossyDFlynt said:
Of all the hospitals I work with (client has sites all over the country), only Oklahoma is having issues with regards to COVID patients, but its still not enough to disrupt their normal workflows as far as I know. Its obviously anecdotal, but thought I would throw that out there.
As Hospitalizations Soar, El Paso Brings In New Mobile Morgues
US hits record COVID-19 hospitalizations amid virus surge
Some hospitals are running out of health care workers.
Nationwide, 61,964 patients were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's the highest number since this pandemic began.
"We're already seeing our hospitals at breaking point in some parts of the country. And that means it doesn't just affect patients with coronavirus," Wen said.
"It also means that elective surgeries are being put off for things like hip replacements, for cancer surgery or heart surgery in some cases."
W MI hospitals work to make space for COVID-19 patients
As U.S. Breaks Hospitalization Records, N.Y. and Other States Add Restrictions
The Worst Day of the Pandemic Since May
COVID-19 spike stirs concern about shortage of hospital space, PPE
Covid-19 Live Updates: U.S. Hospitalizations Top 61,000, a Record
Gov. Brown pleads with Oregonians to stay home as COVID-19 strains hospital capacity
Lamont eyes hospitalizations as 36 more people admitted for COVID-19
Conn.
South Dakota leads all states in number of COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized per million
Ohio governor warns hospitals could be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases in 'a few short weeks'
There is an obvious leadership vacuum. Who is in charge?
-Its 100% anecdotal. I admitted that. From a hospital standpoint, I can only speak to where I have direct knowledge.
-Picking and choosing statistics isnt winning an argument. Its making you feel better about your argument. Daviewolf and Wayland could educate you more than I could, but you wouldnt read it anyway, so its a useless effort
- I agree, your dog may be smarter than you.
Yeah, I'm not believing it either (in NC specifically)... Roy and Mandy have been begging for numbers from these places from the start... they've been counting everything they can.Wayland said:Interesting though is the claim that they were only counting COVID isolation cases to this point.Daviewolf83 said:I am just viewing this as another challenge in trying to track the data over time, as the methodologies for reporting the data change. Also, with the change in hospital reporting, we should get a better idea as to the magnitude of people who have been in the hospital for more than 21 days.Wayland said:
Dashboard changes tomorrow.
I did notice the Hospital Demographics have not been updated today. They are still only reporting the demographic data through 11/6.
I'm sure it won't stop them from padding the numbers though!
Crossface can only be across an arm from now on...Pacfanweb said:I want to see how wrestlers, who already have to wear headgear, are going to incorporate a mask into that setup and have it stay in place.Ripper said:This is absolutely insane.packgrad said:
LOL, that's just about the dumbest thing I've ever heard....wearing masks for any type of rigorous sport.
TheStorm said:Crossface can only be across an arm from now on...Pacfanweb said:I want to see how wrestlers, who already have to wear headgear, are going to incorporate a mask into that setup and have it stay in place.Ripper said:This is absolutely insane.packgrad said:
LOL, that's just about the dumbest thing I've ever heard....wearing masks for any type of rigorous sport.
Lol!
Interestingly, ND actually puts out both their *with*/*from* COVID hospitalizations and deaths.Daviewolf83 said:Definitely. I am not sure if that was the practice in all of the hospitals doing the reporting. I have a contact in a very large hospital that should know this detail and I am going to follow up with them to see if this was their policy for reporting.Wayland said:Interesting though is the claim that they were only counting COVID isolation cases to this point.Daviewolf83 said:I am just viewing this as another challenge in trying to track the data over time, as the methodologies for reporting the data change. Also, with the change in hospital reporting, we should get a better idea as to the magnitude of people who have been in the hospital for more than 21 days.Wayland said:
Dashboard changes tomorrow.
I did notice the Hospital Demographics have not been updated today. They are still only reporting the demographic data through 11/6.
In ND, they have 399 hospitalized *with* COVID, 105 where there for other reasons and tested positive, 294 were hospitalized because of COVID.
NC - 11/13 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +14
*LOW REPORTING LIMITED COLLECTION WINDOW*
Expect holiday catch up finally tomorrow??
DoD Reported
11/11(6), 11/10(4), 11/8(2), 11/7, 10/23
DoD Removed
11/6
1 new missing DoD (4 total)
Setting:
6 Congregate, 0 Unknown, 8 General
NC weekly reported deaths are averaging about 13/day below what was reported for the first week in Nov
I don't know what may be a real decline and what is reporting anomaly due to holiday/collection change time
But there is no report number that would surprise me tomorrow (1-100+)
*LOW REPORTING LIMITED COLLECTION WINDOW*
Expect holiday catch up finally tomorrow??
DoD Reported
11/11(6), 11/10(4), 11/8(2), 11/7, 10/23
DoD Removed
11/6
1 new missing DoD (4 total)
Setting:
6 Congregate, 0 Unknown, 8 General
NC weekly reported deaths are averaging about 13/day below what was reported for the first week in Nov
I don't know what may be a real decline and what is reporting anomaly due to holiday/collection change time
But there is no report number that would surprise me tomorrow (1-100+)
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I am sure you noticed, but for the death reporting in the chart, they are now running two days behind instead of one. The graph ended today on 11/11. Up until a couple of days ago, they had only been one day behind. This is now consistent with how they report the percent positives, since it also ends on 11/11. I wonder if they will catch back up on the death reporting on the chart and we will see a jump.Wayland said:
NC - 11/13 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +14
*LOW REPORTING LIMITED COLLECTION WINDOW*
Expect holiday catch up finally tomorrow??
DoD Reported
11/11(6), 11/10(4), 11/8(2), 11/7, 10/23
DoD Removed
11/6
1 new missing DoD (4 total)
Setting:
6 Congregate, 0 Unknown, 8 General
NC weekly reported deaths are averaging about 13/day below what was reported for the first week in Nov
I don't know what may be a real decline and what is reporting anomaly due to holiday/collection change time
But there is no report number that would surprise me tomorrow (1-100+)
With regards to hospitalizations and the change in how they track the census, 144 people were added today. Some of these are likely patients who have been in the hospital for longer than 21 days, plus some possible additions to the census. I would assume approximately 120-ish are people in the hospital more than 21 days.
The dashboard now includes a tab showing more detailed information on case demographics and it can be sorted by county. This goes along with the hospitalization demographics added a couple of weeks ago. I am recording the hospitalization details at the overall level, but not by region. I do have the overall hospitalization numbers tracked, since they include this information in the data section of the dashboard.
I like the demographics tab.Daviewolf83 said:I am sure you noticed, but for the death reporting in the chart, they are now running two days behind instead of one. The graph ended today on 11/11. Up until a couple of days ago, they had only been one day behind. This is now consistent with how they report the percent positives, since it also ends on 11/11. I wonder if they will catch back up on the death reporting on the chart and we will see a jump.Wayland said:
NC - 11/13 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +14
*LOW REPORTING LIMITED COLLECTION WINDOW*
Expect holiday catch up finally tomorrow??
DoD Reported
11/11(6), 11/10(4), 11/8(2), 11/7, 10/23
DoD Removed
11/6
1 new missing DoD (4 total)
Setting:
6 Congregate, 0 Unknown, 8 General
NC weekly reported deaths are averaging about 13/day below what was reported for the first week in Nov
I don't know what may be a real decline and what is reporting anomaly due to holiday/collection change time
But there is no report number that would surprise me tomorrow (1-100+)
With regards to hospitalizations and the change in how they track the census, 144 people were added today. Some of these are likely patients who have been in the hospital for longer than 21 days, plus some possible additions to the census. I would assume approximately 120-ish are people in the hospital more than 21 days.
The dashboard now includes a tab showing more detailed information on case demographics and it can be sorted by county. This goes along with the hospitalization demographics added a couple of weeks ago. I am recording the hospitalization details at the overall level, but not by region. I do have the overall hospitalization numbers tracked, since they include this information in the data section of the dashboard.
Hospitalizations, some of these could be rehab and hotels. I guess we just need to adjust to a new baseline.
Deaths... My bigger concern is the death total that has to get reported at some point that should be MASSIVE due to data lag.
We had a mid week holiday (low reporting) followed by a change in collection window (low reporting) for mid week reporting.
The last week in October and the first week in November were the worst two weeks for REPORTED deaths in NC. With one day left in this 7 day window, we are well under 100 reported deaths BELOW the reported number from last two weeks.
So tomorrow could be a record reported number (by a large margin) and we could still not be trending up.
I just don't know. But I am expecting a panic inducing number due to lag alone.
It looks to me that the test sucks but maybe it's a bad batch or possibly that 1 nurse?PossumJenkins said:ciscopack said:Obviously that rapid test sucks.Ripper said:Move along. Nothing to see here. This Musk fellow must be an anti science Covid denier.packgrad said:
You mean the one that the FDA approved at 97.5% sensitivity and 100% specificity? If the test does suck...what does that say about the FDA?
In other news, the Trump/Pence Covid-19 hot-zone scored on a dozen or more Secret Service agents.
Resist masks. Resist lockdowns. Morons in charge beginning in late January.
NC - 11/14 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +36
Not at all what I expected. Did not get the fill in deaths for this week. Instead, half the deaths are from 1 week to 3 months ago. Maybe fill in for this week comes next week?
Setting:
10 Congregate, 13 Unknown, 13 General
DoD Reported
11/13(2), 11/12(4), 11/11(6), 11/10, 11/9(3), 11/8(2), 11/5(3), 11/3, 11/2, 11/1, 10/26(2), 10/25, 10/20, 10/16, 10/13, 10/5, 10/4, 9/29, 9/28, 9/25, 9/11, 7/14
1 missing DoD assigned (3 total)
Not at all what I expected. Did not get the fill in deaths for this week. Instead, half the deaths are from 1 week to 3 months ago. Maybe fill in for this week comes next week?
Setting:
10 Congregate, 13 Unknown, 13 General
DoD Reported
11/13(2), 11/12(4), 11/11(6), 11/10, 11/9(3), 11/8(2), 11/5(3), 11/3, 11/2, 11/1, 10/26(2), 10/25, 10/20, 10/16, 10/13, 10/5, 10/4, 9/29, 9/28, 9/25, 9/11, 7/14
1 missing DoD assigned (3 total)
Moderna vaccine post 94.5% effectiveness last night. Is applying for FDA Emergency Use Approval as I type
“Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you are a mile away from them and you have their shoes.”
—Jack Handey
—Jack Handey
As an add on, Pfizer is combining phases 2 & 3. They have some more milestones to hit before they meet and apply for FDA EUA. Also, they have logistical issues to resolve around the very low temps required for drug viability.
Moderna's phase 3 milestone for FDA submission was hit on 11Nov. They have always been about 1 month ahead of the other studies. Also, the Moderna vaccine is stable at refrigerated temps, which will make it much-much easier to transport/ distribute/ store around the world.
Moderna's phase 3 milestone for FDA submission was hit on 11Nov. They have always been about 1 month ahead of the other studies. Also, the Moderna vaccine is stable at refrigerated temps, which will make it much-much easier to transport/ distribute/ store around the world.
“Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you are a mile away from them and you have their shoes.”
—Jack Handey
—Jack Handey
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The Moderna announcement is very good news, since they said they will have 20 million doses ready by the end of this year (2020). Additionally, this vaccine will be much better for distribution to rural areas, since the refrigeration requirements are not as extreme as the Pfizer vaccine. Reportedly, the Moderna vaccine can be frozen for up to six months or it can be kept at normal refrigerator temperatures and it will be good for 30 days.sf59 said:
Moderna vaccine post 94.5% effectiveness last night. Is applying for FDA Emergency Use Approval as I type
An infectious disease doctor from Johns Hopkins said on the news this morning that we could see as many as four vaccines available by the end of January of 2021. As a reminder, the first doses will go to frontline workers and first responders, people at high risk due to existing health issues, and the elderly. The immediate goal, according to them, is to reduce the impact of the virus on hospitalizations and the majority of people hospitalized today are the elderly and people with comorbidities.
Thanks for your updates. I'm honestly surprised that Moderna / Pfizer are only estimating around 50MM each in the US by EOY. Maybe that is max production capacity, I was just thinking that they had been very bullish on the vaccine's and were producing even more as of the start of the Phase III trials.sf59 said:
As an add on, Pfizer is combining phases 2 & 3. They have some more milestones to hit before they meet and apply for FDA EUA. Also, they have logistical issues to resolve around the very low temps required for drug viability.
Moderna's phase 3 milestone for FDA submission was hit on 11Nov. They have always been about 1 month ahead of the other studies. Also, the Moderna vaccine is stable at refrigerated temps, which will make it much-much easier to transport/ distribute/ store around the world.
I hope you don't get C-19. Just my .02
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I think they have been limited by capacity and also remember not all of the supply is going to the US. I do believe the 20MM dose estimate for Moderna is for the US, but am not absolutely certain. The articles I have seen this morning are not entirely clear on this point. One article in Science I read this morning, indicated that Moderna thought they would have the capacity to produce 500MM to 1 Billion doses by the end of 2021, but they said there really is no existing capacity to go above the 1 Billion dose level at this time. The fact we will have the 20MM doses in 2020 is due to the Operation Warp Speed funding, since it allowed Moderna to begin production prior to approval.statefan91 said:Thanks for your updates. I'm honestly surprised that Moderna / Pfizer are only estimating around 50MM each in the US by EOY. Maybe that is max production capacity, I was just thinking that they had been very bullish on the vaccine's and were producing even more as of the start of the Phase III trials.sf59 said:
As an add on, Pfizer is combining phases 2 & 3. They have some more milestones to hit before they meet and apply for FDA EUA. Also, they have logistical issues to resolve around the very low temps required for drug viability.
Moderna's phase 3 milestone for FDA submission was hit on 11Nov. They have always been about 1 month ahead of the other studies. Also, the Moderna vaccine is stable at refrigerated temps, which will make it much-much easier to transport/ distribute/ store around the world.
^u are exactly correct on all points from what i gather.
(I've been involved solely in the development and research portion of these vaccines. The mass production and distribution is not in my purview. But I will ask around)
(I've been involved solely in the development and research portion of these vaccines. The mass production and distribution is not in my purview
. But I will ask around) “Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you are a mile away from them and you have their shoes.”
—Jack Handey
—Jack Handey
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Thanks for your insight. I remembered from past posts that you had a lot of really good insight you could provide us into the vaccine development.sf59 said:
^u are exactly correct on all points from what i gather.
(I've been involved solely in the development and research portion of these vaccines. The mass production and distribution is not in my purview
One question - are you surprised at all by the high efficacy percentages being reported by both Pfizer and Moderna for their vaccine candidates? The doctors I saw interviewed on a couple of news channels early this morning seamed quite surprised (appeared to be happy surprise) by these very positive results. I just wondered, with mRNA vaccines being a new approach to vaccine development (I assume it is new, based on their comments) if this was at all expected.
NC - 11/16 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +8
DoD Reported
11/13(2), 11/12, 11/10(2), 11/8(2), 11/7
0 new missing DoD (5 missing)
Setting:
3 Congregate, 1 Unknown, 4 General Population
*Still not sure we have resolved the reserve from the reporting changes from last week*
Hospitalizations, mostly stable, regional growth in MCRHC.
DoD Reported
11/13(2), 11/12, 11/10(2), 11/8(2), 11/7
0 new missing DoD (5 missing)
Setting:
3 Congregate, 1 Unknown, 4 General Population
*Still not sure we have resolved the reserve from the reporting changes from last week*
Hospitalizations, mostly stable, regional growth in MCRHC.
No problem, glad to provide some insight where I can. I've been lucky to work on this study focusing on subject safety and doctor training, but everything I share is already in the public domain.Daviewolf83 said:Thanks for your insight. I remembered from past posts that you had a lot of really good insight you could provide us into the vaccine development.sf59 said:
^u are exactly correct on all points from what i gather.
(I've been involved solely in the development and research portion of these vaccines. The mass production and distribution is not in my purview
One question - are you surprised at all by the high efficacy percentages being reported by both Pfizer and Moderna for their vaccine candidates? The doctors I saw interviewed on a couple of news channels early this morning seamed quite surprised (appeared to be happy surprise) by these very positive results. I just wondered, with mRNA vaccines being a new approach to vaccine development (I assume it is new, based on their comments) if this was at all expected.
The FDA's threshold for EUA is 50% and Moderna had a minimum threshold of 74%. The 94.5% is an amazing number. In all truthfulness, the percentage is probably closer to 97% with 100% efficacy against severe CVD-19. The weird thing is, no one is surprised by the numbers. We got the same efficacy in Phase1 and Pahse2, but there is always the worry of some unknown. Then during the Phase3 we had a hard time "getting people sick", that confirmed non-scientifically that the efficacy number would be pretty high. That's why we've been cautiously optimistic since June that an effective vaccine or two would be in use by year end.
The mRNA platform has been used and successful before, but only with minor vaccines. The pandemic provided the need and WARP provided the financial commitment to prove that the platform can cost effectively and efficiently provide solutions.
There are still many questions and concerns to answer but the two biggest hurdles of 1-Safety and 2-Initial Efficacy have been cleared
“Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you criticize them, you are a mile away from them and you have their shoes.”
—Jack Handey
—Jack Handey
Miami football off the next 2 weeks - Covid-19
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sf59 - Thanks for following up on my question. This is all very interesting to me. Let's hope the approval process goes smoothly and the vaccine will be in use before the end of this year. I, for one, would have no issue taking the vaccine if it gains FDA approval and I hope others who are in the group to receive the initial doses feel the same way.sf59 said:No problem, glad to provide some insight where I can. I've been lucky to work on this study focusing on subject safety and doctor training, but everything I share is already in the public domain.Daviewolf83 said:Thanks for your insight. I remembered from past posts that you had a lot of really good insight you could provide us into the vaccine development.sf59 said:
^u are exactly correct on all points from what i gather.
(I've been involved solely in the development and research portion of these vaccines. The mass production and distribution is not in my purview
One question - are you surprised at all by the high efficacy percentages being reported by both Pfizer and Moderna for their vaccine candidates? The doctors I saw interviewed on a couple of news channels early this morning seamed quite surprised (appeared to be happy surprise) by these very positive results. I just wondered, with mRNA vaccines being a new approach to vaccine development (I assume it is new, based on their comments) if this was at all expected.
The FDA's threshold for EUA is 50% and Moderna had a minimum threshold of 74%. The 94.5% is an amazing number. In all truthfulness, the percentage is probably closer to 97% with 100% efficacy against severe CVD-19. The weird thing is, no one is surprised by the numbers. We got the same efficacy in Phase1 and Pahse2, but there is always the worry of some unknown. Then during the Phase3 we had a hard time "getting people sick", that confirmed non-scientifically that the efficacy number would be pretty high. That's why we've been cautiously optimistic since June that an effective vaccine or two would be in use by year end.
The mRNA platform has been used and successful before, but only with minor vaccines. The pandemic provided the need and WARP provided the financial commitment to prove that the platform can cost effectively and efficiently provide solutions.
There are still many questions and concerns to answer but the two biggest hurdles of 1-Safety and 2-Initial Efficacy have been cleared
South Dakota nurse says many dying patients still insist COVID-19 'not real'
Where did they get that idea?
Where did they get that idea?
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Now, why exactly is North Carolina tightening our restrictions again? Looks to me like we are in as good of a shape or better than anybody right now... and have been from the start if you want to be completely honest about it.
Now, why exactly is North Carolina tightening our restrictions again? Looks to me like we are in as good of a shape or better than anybody right now... and have been from the start if you want to be completely honest about it.
ciscopack said:
South Dakota nurse says many dying patients still insist COVID-19 'not real'
Where did they get that idea?
Out of respect for this thread and not going political, I deleted my original response.
Suffice it to say that the way the president communicates about pandemics and issues of national importance matters and Americans take their cues from the president.
My brother, a ER Dr. has faced this multiple times, but mostly it's the family who insists the virus isn't real.ciscopack said:
South Dakota nurse says many dying patients still insist COVID-19 'not real'
Where did they get that idea?
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