Civilized said:
Ripper said:
Masks don't work for Covid. Still no evidence. The Danes, the Fins, and the Dutch know the deal. And of course the Swedes know.
The Danes, Fins, and Dutch have all done a 180 on face masks this fall and now widely recommend or require their use.
I agree 100%. People can continue to cherry-pick studies to try and justify not wearing mask, but the evidence for wearing a mask is pretty clear. As I have said before, wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands. These are the best rules to follow in public and when in large crowds - particularly when you are indoors with strangers. As a reminder, the rules on wearing a mask and social distancing are an "and" and not an "or".
If people in NC will follow these guidelines, we should be okay (from a hospital capacity standpoint) until the vaccine and treatments become more broadly available. The governor has been clear that while trends are concerning, he and Mandy Cohen believe we can stay at our current level of restrictions without having to take more drastic measures (other than limits of 10 or less for private, indoor gatherings).
As I posted earlier, NC is doing okay with regards to hospital capacity. If you use the current averages for percent of active cases hospitalized (4%) and the percent of Covid patients in ICU (28%), I would project that NC can handled 30,000 to 40,000 additional daily active cases and not exceed the ICU capacity. I am allowing for some margin of safety in these calculations and being somewhat conservative.
If cases get above 40,000 and approach 50,000, NC will definitely run the risk of filling all ICU capacity. I am sure some additional hospital beds could be converted to treat severe Covid patients (NC has enough ventilators and excess beds), but it is not something we need to test. Currently, NC has an estimated 27,000 active cases.
On the treatment front, it was reported last night that the Pfizer vaccine is likely to be approved and start distribution by the end of November (assuming the data checks out as many experts expect). As stated many times, the vaccine will first go to frontline workers and people who have high at-risk conditions. It could be many months before it rolls out more broadly. Additionally, while the Pfizer study is claiming 90% effectiveness, some statisticians who have looked at the early release of data believe the effectiveness could approach 97%.
Additionally, the monoclonal antibody treatment from Eli Lily that was approved by the FDA in the past week, is ready now for distribution and reportedly, it should start arriving in hospitals by in the next couple of weeks. It will be allocated for use on people in the early to middle stages of infection that have health conditions that make them higher risk.
