I feel like Cooper is just waiting to Nov. 4 and then he's just going to go gang-busters and shut everything down again.
Still would love to know discharge and duration numbers.Daviewolf83 said:
I just noticed a new tab on the NCDHHS dashboard, titled "Hospitalization Demographics." It shows the demographic make-up of patients for "Confirmed" and "Suspected" cases separately. It includes distributions of patents by Race, Gender, and Age. I have not gone through it in any detail, but it appears to be good information that will help with our understanding of hospitalizations.
Sierrawolf said:
I feel like Cooper is just waiting to Nov. 4 and then he's just going to go gang-busters and shut everything down again.
Yes.AlleyPack said:Sierrawolf said:
I feel like Cooper is just waiting to Nov. 4 and then he's just going to go gang-busters and shut everything down again.
(honest question here)
Would Cooper winning/losing make a difference with whether he chooses to shut some things down? (schools, etc.)
There are no 'checks and balances', these orders (I assume) can be rescinded by whoever the governor is, whenever they want. They are official orders by the whim of our mighty ruler.AlleyPack said:
So if Cooper loses then the new governor would be sworn in on 1/1/2021, correct?
How long would it take for things to be "legally" changed/reversed by the new gov?
Let's say the new gov is going to fully open schools back up, fully open gyms and bars, etc. --- would those edicts become effective January 2nd, or would there be a certain time period for such decisions to pass through all the checks and balances?
Thanks
I agree. Discharge is most interesting to me. We say hospitalizations flatten in the 900 range for weeks and it seemed to hit some sort of wall, below which hospitalizations refused to decline. You would think as cases were falling during that time, hospitalizations would have continued to fall.Wayland said:Still would love to know discharge and duration numbers.Daviewolf83 said:
I just noticed a new tab on the NCDHHS dashboard, titled "Hospitalization Demographics." It shows the demographic make-up of patients for "Confirmed" and "Suspected" cases separately. It includes distributions of patents by Race, Gender, and Age. I have not gone through it in any detail, but it appears to be good information that will help with our understanding of hospitalizations.
I'd assume so....it used to be that the new governor was sworn in on January the 5th after the election year, but Cooper decided to move his date to be sworn in up the a few minutes after midnight on January 1st with the actual inauguration a few days after that.AlleyPack said:
So if Cooper loses then the new governor would be sworn in on 1/1/2021, correct?
How long would it take for things to be "legally" changed/reversed by the new gov?
Let's say the new gov is going to fully open schools back up, fully open gyms and bars, etc. --- would those edicts become effective January 2nd, or would there be a certain time period for such decisions to pass through all the checks and balances?
Thanks
I was also surprised WRAL ran this story. I posted a link to the NY Times article on this topic several weeks ago. The NY Times article actually pointed out the higher threshold the NC lab uses in their article. While the higher thresholds are good for determining the spread of the virus and knowing how many "have" been infected, it is also identifying people to be quarantined, who are likely no longer infectious and likely, should not be quarantined.Steve Williams said:
Applaud WRAL for this story although I honestly can't believe they ran it.
Dr. Carl Heneghan, director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, told The Spectator magazine in London, that the black-and-white nature of the test is leading to an inflated number of cases.
"We have found RNA evidence in shedding for 78 days," Heneghan said. "When you're picking up asymptomatic people, you have no idea if they have an active infection, or did they have it two months ago?"
For its coronavirus test, North Carolina's state public health lab cycles a DNA sample up to 37 times before deciding whether it's positive or negative. LabCorp, the main private tester in the state, has a cycle threshold that's even higher, at 38.
"The more times you do that, the less virus you start out with," Heneghan said.
WRAL Investigates went through the specs of dozens of PCR tests that asked for emergency approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The cycle thresholds range from as low as 35 to as high as 40, depending on the maker.
"The higher that threshold goes, the dimmer the signal is or translated to virus, the lower amount of virus is present," said Thomas Denny, chief operating officer of Duke University's Human Vaccine Institute, who heads up the school's coronavirus testing program.
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/are-nc-s-coronavirus-case-numbers-inflated-some-scientists-say-so/19355130/
To them, the light at the end of the tunnel is likely a proctoscope.Wayland said:
...
Well, congratifinglations WRAL for pulling your head out of your ass just a little bit. They and the rest of the MSM have a long way to go to fully extricate their heads.
Our public health experts are too simple minded to be able to distinguish between the testing necessary for a clinical diagnosis and testing necessary for infection control.wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
You've got to be ****ing kidding me. Are we the most idiotic society ever?wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
Do you mind explaining this in a little bit more layman's terms, i'm not quite sure I understand? Is it saying that they are considering any trace of the virus as an active case, even if it's not enough to cause someone to get sick or something?wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
In some cases, this is correct. The way the testing works is through a method of amplification, where you take a sample and run it through an amplification or annealing process to promote growth of the virus in the medium to get enough virus sample to be detectable by the testing equipment. The more cycles (referred to as CT or cycle threshold) you run, the more viral samples that could be present to detect. If there was no virus present, no amount of cycles will produce detectable amounts of the virus and the person will be considered negative for the virus.statefan91 said:Do you mind explaining this in a little bit more layman's terms, i'm not quite sure I understand? Is it saying that they are considering any trace of the virus as an active case, even if it's not enough to cause someone to get sick or something?wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
I agree with the early caution but based on what I have read/seen elsewhere (and based on that previous testing video I posted), the ramp up on the front end between positive-non infectious and positive-infectious at a high CT is a matter of hours, while the back-end CT detection of non-infectious COVID can be detected up to 3 months later.Daviewolf83 said:In some cases, this is correct. The way the testing works is through a method of amplification, where you take a sample and run it through an amplification or annealing process to promote growth of the virus in the medium to get enough virus sample to be detectable by the testing equipment. The more cycles (referred to as CT or cycle threshold) you run, the more viral samples that could be present to detect. If there was no virus present, no amount of cycles will produce detectable amounts of the virus and the person will be considered negative for the virus.statefan91 said:Do you mind explaining this in a little bit more layman's terms, i'm not quite sure I understand? Is it saying that they are considering any trace of the virus as an active case, even if it's not enough to cause someone to get sick or something?wilmwolf80 said:
"Lowering the cycle threshold would reduce cases by 80 to 90 percent, he said.
Heneghan said thresholds in the high 30s paint a false picture, causing unnecessary quarantines and negative economic impacts,"
That's the crux of it right there. Being cautious is one thing, especially early on during this. But at this point, the hospitals are not overwhelmed, we have measures in place, there should be nothing to be gained by unnecessarily considering people positive. This is also yet another reason why it is fruitless to compare our statistics to the rest of the world. Without any standardized threshold for the testing, it very well could be apples to oranges. Eighty to ninety percent. Jeez. Imagine if that were actually being used in practice, we go from "the US is doing terrible dealing with the Rona because people suck, government is bad,, blah blah", to actually, no, we're doing better than everyone. That wouldn't fit the narrative though. I hope I live long enough for some deep dives on the numbers and science of this stuff to be done down the road.
Some of the experts are saying cycles above 30 that yield a positive result should not be considered as an infectious amount of virus present in the original sample. I believe the tests were set up to err on the positive side, since the virus is so new and they want to make sure they capture all people who may be infected and still infectious. The issue is that with the higher cycles generating positive results, you are detecting people who may have been infected and infectious in the past, but they are no longer infectious and should not be quarantined. The flip side to this is you could have someone that has just acquired the virus and have not become fully infected. Running the test with a higher CT (35+) would potentially help to identify these people before they become symptomatic and infectious.
From a public health standpoint, it is definitely important to know how many people have been infected by the virus and I believe it is important for an individual to know that they have already been infected. From a quarantine standpoint, it is problematic to isolate and quarantine people who were once infected, but are no longer infectious. This is why test reports that do not include the CT for the test should be considered incomplete.
Here's the link to the original NY Times article that I posted about many weeks ago, in case you are interested in learning more. WRAL is late to the party and many in MSM completely ignored this story.
Your Coronavirus Test is Positive - Maybe It Shouldn't Be
I just a saw a report that NC will be receiving 3.5 million more antigen test kits, so I suspect the ramp in antigen deaths will continue. I wish we knew where these kits are being deployed. Personally, I would prioritize people working in nursing homes and other congregate facilities. The news report I saw suggested using them to test students and teachers. I would certainly put them much lower on the list of people to receive these tests, based on the demographics and mortality trends.Wayland said:
Lazy man's death charts.
NC - 10/27 *with* COVID Deaths Update. +41
Dates of Death Reported 10/26(3), 10/25(16), 10/24(8), 10/23(5), 10/22(2), 10/21(2), 10/20, 10/18, 10/10, 10/9, 10/5, 9/26, 9/17
2 missing DoD assigned dates (8 total missing)
Setting: 23 Congregate, 5 Unknown, 13 General
Antigen deaths seem to be ramping up some.
Quote:
CDC: COVID-19 Wiped Out the Flu Around the World This Year
Flu numbers in the U.S. were historically low during COVID-19 in the spring, with deep declines also occurring in the recently completed Southern Hemisphere flu season, CDC researchers found.
Influenza positivity rates in specimens tested (a standard metric of community flu activity) fell 98% in 2020 during March 1-May 16 relative to Sept 29, 2019-Feb. 29, 2020, plummeting from a median of 19.34% to 0.33%, reported Sonja Olsen, PhD, of the CDC in Atlanta, and colleagues.
Quote:
The latest numbers from the CDC reveal hospitals have been counting patients who died from serious preexisting conditions as COVID-19 deaths. One America's Pearson Sharp has more, as the CDC counts over 51-thousand patients who actually died from heart attacks, as opposed to the coronavirus.
GuerrillaPack said:
About that bogus "220,000 covid deaths" number...
At least 51,000 people who died of heart disease were counted in that total.
Not worth his timeCivilized said:GuerrillaPack said:
About that bogus "220,000 covid deaths" number...
At least 51,000 people who died of heart disease were counted in that total.
Paging Dr. Mormad...
IseWolf22 said:Not worth his timeCivilized said:GuerrillaPack said:
About that bogus "220,000 covid deaths" number...
At least 51,000 people who died of heart disease were counted in that total.
Paging Dr. Mormad...
NC started reporting PCR and Antigen tests several weeks ago. Here are the current totals:PackMom said:
I don't guess we have any numbers on how many of which types of tests we've run over time. Are there more of the PCR tests now in relation to the quick tests
IseWolf22 said:Not worth his timeCivilized said:GuerrillaPack said:
About that bogus "220,000 covid deaths" number...
At least 51,000 people who died of heart disease were counted in that total.
Paging Dr. Mormad...
Overall, ICU numbers seem to be staying below 30% for all Covid patient admits. Hopefully this trend continues, with the better treatments protocols in place now.Mormad said:
Btw, our numbers are up big. Over 80 in the hospital. Icu numbers not horrible.