Thanks again for posting these numbers.

Rate looks like it's moving in the right direction.

Positivity rate has been good lately. Even on DHHS it is 5%+/-.

Cases really have levelled off the last week. We will see when we start to see a decline again. Based on volume testing I thought Date of Specimen would level off just under 1000, but looks like we are levelling at 1200. But again, with hyper-sensitive PCR and mass testing, what is a case anymore?

Still would like to see hospitalizations drop. I want the media to ask more questions about what is causing the high floor. How many people are being 'hotelled' or are long term. How many discharges? That number should be move quicker.

Agreed - those are good questions but glad to see it consistently below 1000.

I posted earlier that I saw movie theaters appear to be opening this week, will be interesting to see if that comes true and if it's a part of a broader Phase 3 entry.

Wayland said:

---

Positivity rate has been good lately. Even on DHHS it is 5%+/-.

Cases really have levelled off the last week. We will see when we start to see a decline again. Based on volume testing I thought Date of Specimen would level off just under 1000, but looks like we are levelling at 1200. But again, with hyper-sensitive PCR and mass testing, what is a case anymore?

Still would like to see hospitalizations drop. I want the media to ask more questions about what is causing the high floor. How many people are being 'hotelled' or are long term. How many discharges? That number should be move quicker.

---

I don't want to sound bad here... but at this point do the hospital numbers matter all that much? We can't seem to get consistency or full reporting anyway even at the height of our wave. Wouldn't the hospital numbers be irrelevant unless they are having a spike and running out of room and equipment? Certainly you want to see a good trend but if they're holding like they've been for months.... I mean what is it really?

statefan91 said:

---

Agreed - those are good questions but glad to see it consistently below 1000.

I posted earlier that I saw movie theaters appear to be opening this week, will be interesting to see if that comes true and if it's a part of a broader Phase 3 entry.

---

I still haven't seen when the next briefing is this week, but I'd imagine it is tomorrow/Wednesday when we find out the details.

Says announcements expected before Friday but not much more info:

I doubt he cares about polls. North Carolina has done relatively well with the virus thus far and despite my complaints about how slow we've opened up, at least we haven't had major spikes as we do.

This is what I would have expected to happen if NC colleges didn't panic. Funny thing is I contend they closed too late... the outbreak was already on its way down. Had they just ridden it out another week or two, it would have moved on.

Completely agree that he and the State have done a terrible job with congregate facilities. I also think that we would be in a significantly better position today had we had a mask mandate when we moved into Phase 2 at end of May. Deaths per 1M is lower in NC than SC, GA, VA, so just looking at our neighbors when saying if we've done better.

Depending on your value in polls, he's held about a 10 pt lead on Forest throughout, that's why I'm saying I'm not sure how much polls come into play. I do think he's adjusted to public pressure campaigns like the parents at football games, gyms, etc. But I also think we want our politicians adjusting their approach to hopefully combine public input and safety/science.

statefan91 said:

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Completely agree that he and the State have done a terrible job with congregate facilities. I also think that we would be in a significantly better position today had we had a mask mandate when we moved into Phase 2 at end of May. Deaths per 1M is lower in NC than SC, GA, VA, so just looking at our neighbors when saying if we've done better.

Depending on your value in polls, he's held about a 10 pt lead on Forest throughout, that's why I'm saying I'm not sure how much polls come into play. I do think he's adjusted to public pressure campaigns like the parents at football games, gyms, etc. But I also think we want our politicians adjusting their approach to hopefully combine public input and safety/science.

---

Agree. I do want them to listen to the public. The thing about Cooper is, he hasn't wanted to do that from the begining, fudging numbers and out right lieing about a multitude of things. I've never been a cooper fan and never will be but his handling of this has left lots to be desired, as with other governors as well. This entire time, I've never felt like there was any cohesive plan in place by his administration. Just a wing it and see what happens approach, much like the white houses approach.

Yep - I'm on the same page, I'm just glad things didn't go worse for us than they have.

Tomorrow at 2pm is the next briefing.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

9/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
201,431 (PCR) + 4.659 (antigen) = 206,090
NC Deaths
2413 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3440
Currently Hospitalized
914 <- 97% reporting (was 903 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,943,144
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1796 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
550 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1094 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2346 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

356 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 217 -> 223
Resident Care 89 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1759 positive cases over 40090* new tests. 4.4% positive rate. (4.5% DHHS)

Dates of Death Reported 9/26
9/25(3), 9/24(11), 9/23(3), 9/21, 9/20(2), 9/19, 9/18, 9/16(2), 9/15, 9/12, 9/8, 9/6, 8/26, 8/13

One new missing Date of Death

---

9/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
202,704 (PCR) + 4.676 (antigen) = 207,380
NC Deaths
2414 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3441
Currently Hospitalized
917 <- 92% reporting (was 914 at 97%)
Completed Tests
2,974,052
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1797 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
550 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1094 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
2347 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 223 -> 224
Resident Care 89 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1290 positive cases over 30908* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/27
9/26

I still contend that something is 'off' with the hospitalizations number due to the fact that there are no statewide standards and definitions.

---

9/28/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
203,568 (PCR) + 4.680 (antigen) = 208,248
NC Deaths
2418 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3445
Currently Hospitalized
897 <- 96% reporting (was 917 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,999.853
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1799 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
551 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1095 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2350 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 224 -> 224
Resident Care 91 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

868 positive cases over 25801* new tests. 3.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/28
9/27(2), 9/26(2), 9/24, 9/23, 9/22(2), 9/20, 8/28

2 Deaths Removed 9/28
9/25, 9/14 (Hertford and Rutherford)


4 missing deaths given dates. (4 remain)

---

9/29/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
209,137
NC Deaths
2467 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3494
Currently Hospitalized
950 <- 97% reporting (was 897 at 96%)
Completed Tests
3,014,780
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1825 Deaths are now Congregate (+26)
556 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+49 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1113 Deaths assumed General Population (+18)
2381 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 224 -> 227
Resident Care 91 -> 94
Correctional 36 -> 37
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

889 positive cases over 14927* new tests. 6.0% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/29
9/28(7), 9/27(11), 9/26(8), 9/25(8), 9/24(2), 9/23(4), 9/19, 9/18, 9/16(2), 9/15, 9/14, 9/11, 8/28, 8/24, 7/5

What about the 19 year old at App who just died of COVID?

lumberpack5 said:

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What about the 19 year old at App who just died of COVID?

---

What about him? Terrible for his family. What is your point though?

packgrad said:

---

lumberpack5 said:

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What about the 19 year old at App who just died of COVID?

---

What about him? Terrible for his family. What is your point though?

---

https://www.wataugademocrat.com/news/reports-appalachian-state-student-dies-with-covid-19/article_ba666c57-fac9-576e-aa20-e0396bd2893b.html

19 Year Old basketball player in otherwise good health. Apparent health. Check the red hair - lots of odd genes turned off or on to get that shade of red. Then again the real cause could be meningitis in addition to Covid. But based on my last post, researchers are noting that some with certain HLA-B alells are doing poorly and I know some of that overlaps with other autoimmune issues.

That's a pretty awful thing to happen for a kid that young. However, it is apparently pretty freak occurrence.

Susan Dorrill said her son was "incredibly tired" for two weeks.

"Little did we know it was secretly attacking his body in a way they have never seen before," Susan Dorrill was quoted as saying. "The doctors said that Chad is the rarest 1-10,000,000 case, but if it can happen to a super healthy 19-year-old boy who doesn't smoke, vape or do drugs, it can happen to anyone."

Tough thing to happen and my prayers go out to his family. I understand what his mom was trying to say, but it really can't happen to anyone if it is a one in ten million occurrence. His lifestyle and seeming good health really don't matter if there's some underlying pathology there. Hopefully it gets studied to find out how it affected him that way, but I don't think there is a larger implication here beyond that.

wilmwolf80 said:

---

Tough thing to happen and my prayers go out to his family. I understand what his mom was trying to say, but it really can't happen to anyone if it is a one in ten million occurrence. His lifestyle and seeming good health really don't matter if there's some underlying pathology there. Hopefully it gets studied to find out how it affected him that way, but I don't think there is a larger implication here beyond that.

---

I don't really like to comment on individual cases. Every death is tragic, especially a young man with so much ahead of him.

I saw this morning articles talking about how he started having neurological symptoms after returning to school. They suspect an undetected case of Guillain-Barre. No less a tragedy.

Wayland said:

---

wilmwolf80 said:

---

Tough thing to happen and my prayers go out to his family. I understand what his mom was trying to say, but it really can't happen to anyone if it is a one in ten million occurrence. His lifestyle and seeming good health really don't matter if there's some underlying pathology there. Hopefully it gets studied to find out how it affected him that way, but I don't think there is a larger implication here beyond that.

---

I don't really like to comment on individual cases. Every death is tragic, especially a young man with so much ahead of him.

I saw this morning articles talking about how he started having neurological symptoms after returning to school. They suspect an undetected case of Guillain-Barre. No less a tragedy.

---

Right. His tragedy just underscores that it's best to not get the disease; doing so raises the possibility of complications with any comorbidities someone has, no matter their age.

His outcome being rare doesn't make it a fluke. Some small fraction of even otherwise seemingly healthy 19-year-olds will die from this.

Wayland said:

---

Tomorrow at 2pm is the next briefing.

---

Thanks! Interested to see what else opens up. Assuming movie theaters based on what I've seen online, wouldn't be surprised if bars were allowed to open with some type of precautions in place (what those are, I don't know).

Based on social media posts by an acquaintance that runs a theater, they are expecting to open.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Based on social media posts by an acquaintance that runs a theater, they are expecting to open.

---

Thankfully. I usually go to 3-4/month with AMC A List and although there's not a ton out, I miss getting to the theaters once the wife and kids are asleep.

I figured this is a good place to put this....

Affordable Healthcare - call it Obamcare, Trumpcare, Lincolncare, Carsoncare or anything you want. American Healthcare with choices and quality that people can afford is a great name. Plenty of choices to chose from and much lower than what I pay!

I've used insurance 1 time in my whole life.....I got a metal shaving in my eye and they paid $300+ dollars. I suppose mom and dad used insurance too when my tonsils were taken out at 1.5? I had Blue Cross, Blue Shield all my life up to 50 and then it got so high I dropped it. I pay United Healthcare currently ~$5500 per year with a $10,000 dollar deductible.....just for something serious.

I have a Trump voter cousin, as is his daughter ~26. She was about 1 pound when she was born and has some problems throughout her life. Missing things inside her and such....intestines example. She's married now and she married a State grad. that seems to be a great guy. Her dad...5 or 6 years ago could no longer afford insurance for her and he was bound and determined not to get of the Affordable Care Act Insurance. He and his daughter have been on it for 6 years now and both pay way less than this retired unemployed man...way, way less and she still has to go to the doctors about once per week. Me, my last physical was 1975,,,,pre-football season. (I know, I know....getting at least 1 physical per year is wanted by insurance companies).

Affordable American Health Insurance seems like a good thing and I'd hope both political parties would work together to make it happen.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

9/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
201,431 (PCR) + 4.659 (antigen) = 206,090
NC Deaths
2413 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3440
Currently Hospitalized
914 <- 97% reporting (was 903 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,943,144
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1796 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
550 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1094 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2346 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

356 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 217 -> 223
Resident Care 89 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1759 positive cases over 40090* new tests. 4.4% positive rate. (4.5% DHHS)

Dates of Death Reported 9/26
9/25(3), 9/24(11), 9/23(3), 9/21, 9/20(2), 9/19, 9/18, 9/16(2), 9/15, 9/12, 9/8, 9/6, 8/26, 8/13

One new missing Date of Death

---

9/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
202,704 (PCR) + 4.676 (antigen) = 207,380
NC Deaths
2414 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3441
Currently Hospitalized
917 <- 92% reporting (was 914 at 97%)
Completed Tests
2,974,052
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1797 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
550 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1094 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
2347 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 223 -> 224
Resident Care 89 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1290 positive cases over 30908* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/27
9/26

I still contend that something is 'off' with the hospitalizations number due to the fact that there are no statewide standards and definitions.

---

9/28/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
203,568 (PCR) + 4.680 (antigen) = 208,248
NC Deaths
2418 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3445
Currently Hospitalized
897 <- 96% reporting (was 917 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,999.853
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1799 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
551 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1095 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2350 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 224 -> 224
Resident Care 91 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 36
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

868 positive cases over 25801* new tests. 3.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/28
9/27(2), 9/26(2), 9/24, 9/23, 9/22(2), 9/20, 8/28

2 Deaths Removed 9/28
9/25, 9/14 (Hertford and Rutherford)


4 missing deaths given dates. (4 remain)

---

9/29/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
209,137
NC Deaths
2467 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3494
Currently Hospitalized
950 <- 97% reporting (was 897 at 96%)
Completed Tests
3,014,780
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1825 Deaths are now Congregate (+26)
556 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+49 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1113 Deaths assumed General Population (+18)
2381 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 224 -> 227
Resident Care 91 -> 94
Correctional 36 -> 37
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

889 positive cases over 14927* new tests. 6.0% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 9/29
9/28(7), 9/27(11), 9/26(8), 9/25(8), 9/24(2), 9/23(4), 9/19, 9/18, 9/16(2), 9/15, 9/14, 9/11, 8/28, 8/24, 7/5

---

9/30/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
210,632
NC Deaths
3505 (PCR) + 27 (anitgen) = 3532
Currently Hospitalized
956 <- 97% reporting (was 950 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,029,942
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1843 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
566 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+38 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1123 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
2409 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+28)

366 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 227 -> 231
Resident Care 94 -> 94
Correctional 37 -> 36
Other 7 -> 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1495 positive cases over 15162* new tests. 9.9% positive rate. (DHHS 6.5%)

Dates of Death Reported 9/30
9/29(2), 9/28(6), 9/27(5), 9/26(2), 9/25(4), 9/24(2), 9/23, 9/21, 9/20, 9/18(2), 9/17, 9/16, 9/12, 9/10, 9/6, 8/26, 8/11, 8/10, 8/4, 8/2

2 New Missing DoD (5 total)

Cooper order Phase 1.875: -

Amusement parks 30%, not inside rides
-Bars open outside, 30% -
Live theaters, etc. must be seated venues, 30%
-7% for Very Large Outdoor (10K+) venues (stadiums)
-Staff, athletes don't count (the virus knows!) -Till Oct 23

So, why would capacity be higher for indoor venues than outdoor stadiums? I'm struggling with the science here, again.