Coronavirus

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packgrad
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In reply to Mormad • 9:51a, 9/22/20
Mormad said:
packgrad said:
Mormad said:
Yes, just as they did in the tally of those dementia numbers you pulled. How do you think they got those numbers?

There is nothing wrong with those death certificates. You, I, nor i promise you Alex Berenson can look at those death certificates and dispute their validity. He's doing so, and using ridiculously poor logic. You like it and defend it because it fits your narrative, despite its flaws. Again, he looks at a death certificate that lists "complications from covid infection" as the COD and then states the person didn't die of covid because they had Parkinsons, afib, htn, diabetes, and pvd. He assumes they died of one of those things and the covid is a lie, and then says, "you can't make this up." He's flabbergasted, but I'm also flabbergasted at the sheer stupidity in such logic and ignorance of disease. I'm sorry that he is so wrong in this. Pointing out things to calm fear using poor logic and complete misunderstanding doesn't sound so pragmatic to me. Filling out death certificates correctly isn't the issue here, how you think they're being used is the issue. Alex shows ignorance in blaming the reporting, instead of the interpretation. I'm saying the reporting is accurate and appropriate. If we want to argue how that data is USED to keep us down, I'm behind you all the way.


Your last sentence is the point I'm talking about. I'm not blaming your colleagues for how it is being written up. If someone tests positive for Covid while they're in hospice, then they don't count as a Covid death, IN THE WAY THE DATA IS BEING COLLECTED TO MAKE DECISIONS FOR THR POPULACE. In the puritanical pandemic data collection, fine have at it.


I get it, my man. I just wish the people using the data to make such decisions were as smart as me

You and i definitely want to same thing, my friend. Just viewing it from different angles.


Haha. Cheers, brother. I do too.
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Civilized
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In reply to packgrad • 10:04a, 9/22/20
packgrad said:
Your last sentence is the point I'm talking about. I'm not blaming your colleagues for how it is being written up. If someone tests positive for Covid while they're in hospice, then they don't count as a Covid death, IN THE WAY THE DATA IS BEING COLLECTED TO MAKE DECISIONS FOR THR POPULACE. In the puritanical pandemic data collection, fine have at it.

But why shouldn't they be a COVID death? Would the patient have died of her co-morbidities, but for COVID?

There's nothing wrong with the data being collected as COVID deaths. This WITH COVID/FROM COVID obsession is a waste of time since doctors often can't parse that finely and from a public health perspective we all have a need to know how many people's deaths COVID is causing and/or contributing to, not just the deaths when COVID is the single cause (which I imagine is actually rather rare).

Stop banging on what counts as a COVID death and instead ramp up the pressure for governments to better contextualize the data they are reporting and how/why they're using it to make public policy decisions.

That's a more scientifically sound approach, and achieves your desired end.
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packgrad
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In reply to Civilized • 10:18a, 9/22/20
Civilized said:
packgrad said:
Your last sentence is the point I'm talking about. I'm not blaming your colleagues for how it is being written up. If someone tests positive for Covid while they're in hospice, then they don't count as a Covid death, IN THE WAY THE DATA IS BEING COLLECTED TO MAKE DECISIONS FOR THR POPULACE. In the puritanical pandemic data collection, fine have at it.

But why shouldn't they be a COVID death? Would the patient have died of her co-morbidities, but for COVID?

There's nothing wrong with the data being collected as COVID deaths. This WITH COVID/FROM COVID obsession is a waste of time since doctors often can't parse that finely and from a public health perspective we all have a need to know how many people's deaths COVID is causing and/or contributing to, not just the deaths when COVID is the single cause (which I imagine is actually rather rare).

Stop banging on what counts as a COVID death and instead ramp up the pressure for governments to better contextualize the data they are reporting and how/why they're using it to make public policy decisions.

That's a more scientifically sound approach, and achieves your desired end.


Would a person in hospice die if not for Covid? Seriously? If you see nothing wrong with that, then we won't come to an agreement.

You're welcome to use whatever scientific approach you'd like to use. I will continue to think with and from is a relevant discussion.
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ncsualum05
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In reply to Mormad • 10:38a, 9/22/20
Mormad said:
Yes, just as they did in the tally of those dementia numbers you pulled. How do you think they got those numbers?

There is nothing wrong with those death certificates. You, I, nor i promise you Alex Berenson can look at those death certificates and dispute their validity. He's doing so, and using ridiculously poor logic. You like it and defend it because it fits your narrative, despite its flaws. Again, he looks at a death certificate that lists "complications from covid infection" as the COD and then states the person didn't die of covid because they had Parkinsons, afib, htn, diabetes, and pvd. He assumes they died of one of those things and the covid is a lie, and then says, "you can't make this up." He's flabbergasted, but I'm also flabbergasted at the sheer stupidity in such logic and ignorance of disease. I'm sorry that he is so wrong in this. Pointing out things to calm fear using poor logic and complete misunderstanding doesn't sound so pragmatic to me. Filling out death certificates correctly isn't the issue here, how you think they're being used is the issue. Alex shows ignorance in blaming the reporting, instead of the interpretation. I'm saying the reporting is accurate and appropriate. If we want to argue how that data is USED to keep us down, I'm behind you all the way.
Yes... you hit the nail on the head and this is what I was trying to say in my post. You make a good point too though that Alex can point out that people are misusing data without misusing it himself. Thanks for that. Continue to appreciate your insight. Wish you were up there instead of Cohen.
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packgrad
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10:41a, 9/22/20
Question for mormad.... this may be out of your field but figured I'd give it a shot. In regards to cdc reporting cause of deaths, do they count all of the comorbidities in their cause of death calculations? For example if someone has stage 4 emphysema and contract pneumonia and die, are they counted as an emphysema death, pneumonia death, or both?
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johntom
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11:49a, 9/22/20
Judging by the mortality rate in the US compared to other countries, I don't think we're counting deaths any different. We have more cases, so there will be more deaths.
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Civilized
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In reply to packgrad • 12:20p, 9/22/20
packgrad said:

Would a person in hospice die if not for Covid? Seriously? If you see nothing wrong with that, then we won't come to an agreement.

You're welcome to use whatever scientific approach you'd like to use. I will continue to think with and from is a relevant discussion.

People can be in hospice care for weeks or months. We can't exclude them just because they're reaching end of life.

If someone with COVID got hit by a train and their cert reported Blount Force Trauma with COVID and they got counted as a COVID death, I'd agree with you but there are extremely few of those. Not enough to make a difference from a macro perspective, which is what epidemiologists are concerned with.

There are tens of thousands of judgment calls regarding WITH or FROM Covid. We can't risk not understanding the totality of the virus' impact on public health by trying to parse and then exclude the WITHs so you have to capture WITH and FROM.

What's key then is government officials contextualizing the data when making decisions. The COD reporting is fine, we just need better context regarding how officials are using that information.

Other countries, presumably are doing the same so it's apples-to-apples.

Mormad - have you read how other countries, especially Europe, are handling the WITH vs. FROM question from a COD perspective?
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statefan91
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12:22p, 9/22/20
North Carolina and Charlotte-Mecklenburg numbers continuing to fall. Hopefully this as Gov. Cooper on track to announce Phase 3 sometime next week. I think Phase 2.5 is scheduled through 10/5 or somewhere around there.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 12:27p, 9/22/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
9/10/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
180,754
NC Deaths
2990
Currently Hospitalized
928 <- 90% reporting (was 916 at 86%)
Completed Tests
2,521,839


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1544 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
484 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

962 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
2028 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

353 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 199
Resident Care 101 -> 103
Correctional 43 -> 41
Other 8 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1222 positive cases over 31726* new tests. 3.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 31726 but DHHS claims only 26277 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/10
9/9(2), 9/8(5), 9/7(9), 9/6(6), 9/5(5), 9/4(4), 9/3, 8/30, 8/28, 7/20

2 missing Dates of Death assigned dates.
1 death removed on 9/1
9/11/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
182,286
NC Deaths
3023
Currently Hospitalized
938 <- 93% reporting (was 928 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,558,654


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1564 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
484 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

975 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
2048 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 205
Resident Care 103 -> 105
Correctional 41 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1532 positive cases over 36815* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 36815 but DHHS claims only 30056 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/11
9/10(10), 9/9(6). 9/8(4). 9/7(3), 9/6, 9/5, 9/4(2), 9/1, 8/30, 8/26, 8/17(2), 8/6, 8/3, 7/7

2 DoD previously missing assigned dates.
9/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
183,740
NC Deaths
3047
Currently Hospitalized
870 <- 95% reporting (was 938 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,581,132


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1578 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
485 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

984 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
2063 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 205 -> 209
Resident Care 105 -> 101
Correctional 37 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1454 positive cases over 22478* new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22478 but DHHS claims only 17717 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/12
9/11(2), 9/10(7), 9/9(3), 9/8, 9/7(2), 9/3(3), 8/30, 8/21

4 deaths added missing DoD.
9/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
184,936
NC Deaths
3052
Currently Hospitalized
831 <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 95%)
Completed Tests
2,616,108


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1581 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
485 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

986 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
2066 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 209 -> 210
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 37 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1196 positive cases over 34976* new tests. 3.4% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 34976 but DHHS claims only 19632 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/13
9/12, 9/11(4)

DHHS TESTING % POSITIVE FOR TODAY 4.9%
9/14/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
185,781
NC Deaths
3060
Currently Hospitalized
895 <- 92% reporting (was 831 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,634,819


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1587 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
486 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

987 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2073 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

350 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-8)
Nursing Homes 210 -> 208
Resident Care 101 -> 97
Correctional 37 -> 35
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


845 positive cases over 18711* new tests. 4.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 18711 but DHHS claims only 13313 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/14
9/13, 9/12(3), 9/11, 9/10, 9/9, 9/8, 8/27, 8/22, 8/17

3 DoD previously missing assigned dates.


DHHS TESTING % POSITIVE FOR TODAY 4.8%
9/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
186,887
NC Deaths
3111
Currently Hospitalized
916 <- 94% reporting (was 895 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,652,440


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1621 Deaths are now Congregate (+34)
489 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+51 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1001 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
2110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+37)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 208 -> 205
Resident Care 97 -> 96
Correctional 35 -> 36
Other 10 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1106 positive cases over 17621* new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 17621 but DHHS claims only 9563 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/15
9/14(7), 9/13(6), 9/12(5), 9/11(8), 9/10(3), 9/9, 9/8, 9/7(3), 9/6, 9/5, 9/1, 8/30, 8/17, 8/12, 8/9, 8/7, 8/4, 8/3, 8/1, 7/23, 7/16, 7/12(2), 4/14

9/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
188,024
NC Deaths
3149
Currently Hospitalized
918 <- 96% reporting (was 916 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,683,384


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1642 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
498 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+38 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1009 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2140 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

338 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-7)
Nursing Homes 205 -> 204
Resident Care 96 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 35
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1137 positive cases over 30944* new tests. 3.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30944 but DHHS claims only 22513 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/16
9/15(2), 9/14(13), 9/13(6), 9/12(5), 9/11, 9/10, 9/8(2), 9/6(3), 9/5, 9/4, 9/3(2), 9/2, 8/29, 8/25, 8/14

2 missing DoD assigned Dates

One Death Removed
9/7 (Gaston)
9/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
189,576
NC Deaths
3180
Currently Hospitalized
894 <- 96% reporting (was 918 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,714,175


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1654 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
508 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+31 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1018 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
2162 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

332 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-6)
Nursing Homes 204 -> 201
Resident Care 91 -> 87
Correctional 35 -> 35
Other 8 -> 9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1552 positive cases over 30791* new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30944 but DHHS claims only 24950 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/17
9/16(5), 9/15(8), 9/14(8), 9/11(2), 9/8, 9/4, 9/3, 9/1, 8/23, 8/17, 8/16(2), 8/8, 8/3, 7/10

Deaths REMOVED 9/17
8/27, 8/18, 8/14

With so many changes still double checking.
9/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
191,019
NC Deaths
3207
Currently Hospitalized
904 <- 94% reporting (was 894 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,749,020


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1670 Deaths are now Congregate (+16)
511 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1026 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2181 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

336 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 201 -> 204
Resident Care 87 -> 89
Correctional 35 -> 35
Other 9 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1443 positive cases over 34875* new tests. 4.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 34875 but DHHS claims only 25978 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/18
9/17(3), 9/16(11), 9/15, 9/14(2), 9/10, 9/9, 9/8, 9/7, 9/1, 8/30, 8/18, 8/10, 8/9, 7/21

1 death removed 8/3
9/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
192,248
NC Deaths
3235
Currently Hospitalized
882 <- 96% reporting (was 904 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,771,020


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1686 Deaths are now Congregate (+16)
519 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1030 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
2205 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 204 -> 212
Resident Care 89 -> 92
Correctional 35 -> 34
Other 8 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1229 positive cases over 22000* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22000 but DHHS claims only 14219 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/19
9/18(3), 9/17(6), 9/16(3), 9/15(2), 9/14, 9/13(4), 9/12, 9/10, 9/9(2), 9/8, 9/5(3), 8/27, 8/1

1 new missing DoD.

Peak DoD 8/1 increases 39 -> 40

9/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
193,581
NC Deaths
3243
Currently Hospitalized
889 <- 94% reporting (was 882 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,804,818


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1687 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
520 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1036 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
2207 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

346 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 212 -> 213
Resident Care 92 -> 92
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1333 positive cases over 33798* new tests. 3.9% positive rate. (DHHS 4.6%)

Delta completed tests 33798 but DHHS claims only 17478 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/20
9/19, 9/18, 9/16, 9/15(2), 9/13, 9/11, 9/7, 8/19
6 of the deaths are from Alamance

One Death Removed 9/5 (Currituck)
9/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
194,381
NC Deaths
3247
Currently Hospitalized
885 <- 95% reporting (was 889 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,817,539

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1688 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
522 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1037 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2210 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

339 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-7)
Nursing Homes 213 -> 207
Resident Care 92 -> 91
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


800 positive cases over 12721* new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 12721 but DHHS claims only 8231 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/21
9/20, 9/19, 9/17, 8/4
9/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
195,549
NC Deaths
3286
Currently Hospitalized
905 <- 96% reporting (was 885 at 95%)
Completed Tests
2,824,929

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1710 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
526 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+39 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1050 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
2236 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+26)

337 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-2)
Nursing Homes 207 -> 205
Resident Care 91 -> 89
Correctional 34 -> 35
Other 7 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1168 positive cases over 7390* new tests. XX% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 7390 but DHHS claims only BLANK completed tests
*** Has to be something wrong with reporting, the case delta doesn't make sense. DHHS did not actually enter a value for 'Completed Tests' for the date 9/22

Dates of Death Reported 9/22
9/21(6), 9/20(8), 9/19(7), 9/18(7), 9/17(2), 9/16, 9/15, 9/14, 9/5, 8/30, 8/27, 8/20, 6/29

1 new missing DoD
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ciscopack
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12:28p, 9/22/20
"Maybe this Covid thing is a good thing. I don't like shaking hands with people. I don't have to shake hands with these disgusting people." - The Donald



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ciscopack
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12:31p, 9/22/20
At the moment, worldwide Covid-19 is doubling every 7 days.
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ciscopack
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12:35p, 9/22/20
CDC Takes Down Guidance on Airborne Coronavirus Transmission

The latest on Covid

CDC takes down guidance on Covid-19 spread, blames error
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packgrad
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In reply to Civilized • 12:38p, 9/22/20
80% of deaths labeled as from Covid are age 65 and older.

60% of deaths labeled as from Covid are age 75 or older.

Median age of death from Covid is 71.

I think with or from is an important distinction.
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ciscopack
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12:40p, 9/22/20
How is the US doing as far as Covid-19 goes

The coronavirus has claimed more than 200,000 lives in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University.

It's yet another grim milestone for the country that leads the world in reported coronavirus deaths and cases. The U.S. death toll is trailed by Brazil, which reports more than 137,000 fatalities, and India, which reports close to 89,000. India has been reporting the largest number of new infections out of any country since early August, and if its infection rate continues as is, the country's case count will surpass the U.S. in the coming weeks.

"Maybe this Covid thing is a good thing. I don't like shaking hands with people. I don't have to shake hands with these disgusting people." - The Donald





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Wayland
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1:23p, 9/22/20
Rumors of new science(polling)! Coop might let some fans in Panthers games. Will have to see at 2pm.
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Daviewolf83
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1:40p, 9/22/20
Staff
The US does not lead the world when you look at cases after normalizing for population. In this case, the US ranks 11th. As to deaths, the US is not the leading country, normalizing for population. Here's the top 20 countries in terms of deaths, normalizing for population differences.




When you look at the CFR, you will see the US ranks 62nd in the world (CFR=2.9%). A big part of this is due to the fact that the US is testing more than any other country and as a result, the US is finding more cases. The CFR percentage does show the US is doing much better than most the developed world in preventing deaths from known cases. Here are the worst 20 countries based on CFR.



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Daviewolf83
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1:52p, 9/22/20
Staff
I thought people might also find it interesting to see how the US is doing when compared with some of the European countries that thought they had the virus under control. As people have said before, the virus is going to virus. I included Sweden, since it is showing a remarkable ability to keep the virus under control, despite the fact there economy is pretty much open, schools (K-12) are open and never shutdown, and masks are not being worn to a large extent. I am interested in Sweden, since my twin nephews have lived there for the last three years.

Daily Case Growth (logarithmic plot - adjusted for population):



Daily Case Growth (linear plot - adjusted for population):


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Wayland
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2:04p, 9/22/20
7% capacity in stadiums.

Phase 1.89
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packgrad
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In reply to Wayland • 2:05p, 9/22/20
Wayland said:
7% capacity in stadiums.

Phase 1.89


SCIENCE!!!
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pman27
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In reply to Wayland • 3:35p, 9/22/20
Wayland said:
DHHS is coming for your phone (voluntary).

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/ncdhhs-developing-slowcovidnc-exposure-notification-app-expected-launch

Do Nursing Home residents have smart phones?

SlowCOVIDNC smartphone app is out today: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/slowcovidnc

This uses the jointly developed Apple/Google bluetooth infrastructure to exchange tokens that enable anonymously contact tracing and notification.

Well worth installing and enabling bluetooth access and notifications. I've been asking my friends and family in NC to do so, then spread the word.

IMHO, the more everyone takes measures to keep each other safe and informed, the faster we move toward reopening.
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Civilized
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In reply to packgrad • 4:04p, 9/22/20
packgrad said:
80% of deaths labeled as from Covid are age 65 and older.

60% of deaths labeled as from Covid are age 75 or older.

Median age of death from Covid is 71.

I think with or from is an important distinction.

I agree that it can help inform public and health policy.
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Civilized
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In reply to Wayland • 4:06p, 9/22/20
Wayland said:
7% capacity in stadiums.

Phase 1.89

7%?? Seven? Not 0. Not 5%, or 10, or 20. Seven?

How the **** did they come up with that number?

For folks that seem to be doing a poor job with advanced metrics they all of a sudden got pretty damn specific.
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Steve Williams
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In reply to Civilized • 9:23p, 9/22/20
Staff
Civilized said:
Wayland said:
7% capacity in stadiums.

Phase 1.89

7%?? Seven? Not 0. Not 5%, or 10, or 20. Seven?

How the **** did they come up with that number?

For folks that seem to be doing a poor job with advanced metrics they all of a sudden got pretty damn specific.
I really think it should've been 6.4% or 8.3%. I mean, c'mon. Don't let the ridiculousness end with a simple 7.
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Wayland
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8:28a, 9/23/20
And here we get to the problem of false positives. Other Coronaviruses setting off tests.

EDIT: Apparently there is another coronavirus from a German study that was setting of false positives 7% of the time.

All of this isn't an issue when you are using tests rationally. But when every false positive is used as a cause to shut down schools and businesses, you need to be diligent.

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Pacfanweb
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8:59a, 9/23/20
Someone brought this up to me and it did make me wonder:

So say you test positive. And you get hospitalized.

And you are tested multiple times during your hospitalization to see if
you've beaten it yet, and that yields several more positive tests.


Are all those counted as new positive tests?
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Wayland
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In reply to Pacfanweb • 9:05a, 9/23/20
Pacfanweb said:
Someone brought this up to me and it did make me wonder:

So say you test positive. And you get hospitalized.

And you are tested multiple times during your hospitalization to see if
you've beaten it yet, and that yields several more positive tests.


Are all those counted as new positive tests?
Not in NC. NC claims to remove duplicate positive tests. Now how long it takes them to catch them and remove them is another question, as we see constant adjustments of testing data from months ago, every day.

Some states will count those (I believe MA does, but they do report separate % positives for including and excluding retests).
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byrd77pack
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9:15a, 9/23/20
https://www.wral.com/42-year-old-clayton-firefighter-dies-after-battle-with-covid-19/19300555/


This disease continues to chew up so many Americans.
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byrd77pack
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9:17a, 9/23/20



Meanwhile, this is President Trump's response last night in PA.

How do the more than 200k families feel about this lack of care or concern from him and these supporters?
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ncsualum05
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In reply to byrd77pack • 9:48a, 9/23/20
byrd77pack said:



Meanwhile, this is President Trump's response last night in PA.

How do the more than 200k families feel about this lack of care or concern from him and these supporters?
They are outdoors. The indoor events are kind of stupid in my opinion. Outdoor events are safer. People need to understand there are risks though.
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82TxPackFan
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In reply to Civilized • 10:12a, 9/23/20
Civilized said:
Wayland said:
7% capacity in stadiums.

Phase 1.89

7%?? Seven? Not 0. Not 5%, or 10, or 20. Seven?

How the **** did they come up with that number?

For folks that seem to be doing a poor job with advanced metrics they all of a sudden got pretty damn specific.
I would suggest they pulled it out of their A**!!

Same strategy Stupor Cooper & his henchwoman have used throughout the process.
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Wayland
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In reply to Wayland • 12:23p, 9/23/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
9/10/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
180,754
NC Deaths
2990
Currently Hospitalized
928 <- 90% reporting (was 916 at 86%)
Completed Tests
2,521,839


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1544 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
484 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

962 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
2028 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

353 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 199
Resident Care 101 -> 103
Correctional 43 -> 41
Other 8 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1222 positive cases over 31726* new tests. 3.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 31726 but DHHS claims only 26277 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/10
9/9(2), 9/8(5), 9/7(9), 9/6(6), 9/5(5), 9/4(4), 9/3, 8/30, 8/28, 7/20

2 missing Dates of Death assigned dates.
1 death removed on 9/1
9/11/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
182,286
NC Deaths
3023
Currently Hospitalized
938 <- 93% reporting (was 928 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,558,654


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1564 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
484 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

975 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
2048 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 205
Resident Care 103 -> 105
Correctional 41 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1532 positive cases over 36815* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 36815 but DHHS claims only 30056 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/11
9/10(10), 9/9(6). 9/8(4). 9/7(3), 9/6, 9/5, 9/4(2), 9/1, 8/30, 8/26, 8/17(2), 8/6, 8/3, 7/7

2 DoD previously missing assigned dates.
9/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
183,740
NC Deaths
3047
Currently Hospitalized
870 <- 95% reporting (was 938 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,581,132


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1578 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
485 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

984 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
2063 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

357 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 205 -> 209
Resident Care 105 -> 101
Correctional 37 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1454 positive cases over 22478* new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22478 but DHHS claims only 17717 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/12
9/11(2), 9/10(7), 9/9(3), 9/8, 9/7(2), 9/3(3), 8/30, 8/21

4 deaths added missing DoD.
9/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
184,936
NC Deaths
3052
Currently Hospitalized
831 <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 95%)
Completed Tests
2,616,108


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1581 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
485 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

986 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
2066 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 209 -> 210
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 37 -> 37
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1196 positive cases over 34976* new tests. 3.4% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 34976 but DHHS claims only 19632 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/13
9/12, 9/11(4)

DHHS TESTING % POSITIVE FOR TODAY 4.9%
9/14/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
185,781
NC Deaths
3060
Currently Hospitalized
895 <- 92% reporting (was 831 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,634,819


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1587 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
486 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

987 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2073 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

350 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-8)
Nursing Homes 210 -> 208
Resident Care 101 -> 97
Correctional 37 -> 35
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


845 positive cases over 18711* new tests. 4.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 18711 but DHHS claims only 13313 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/14
9/13, 9/12(3), 9/11, 9/10, 9/9, 9/8, 8/27, 8/22, 8/17

3 DoD previously missing assigned dates.


DHHS TESTING % POSITIVE FOR TODAY 4.8%
9/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
186,887
NC Deaths
3111
Currently Hospitalized
916 <- 94% reporting (was 895 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,652,440


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1621 Deaths are now Congregate (+34)
489 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+51 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1001 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
2110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+37)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 208 -> 205
Resident Care 97 -> 96
Correctional 35 -> 36
Other 10 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1106 positive cases over 17621* new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 17621 but DHHS claims only 9563 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/15
9/14(7), 9/13(6), 9/12(5), 9/11(8), 9/10(3), 9/9, 9/8, 9/7(3), 9/6, 9/5, 9/1, 8/30, 8/17, 8/12, 8/9, 8/7, 8/4, 8/3, 8/1, 7/23, 7/16, 7/12(2), 4/14

9/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
188,024
NC Deaths
3149
Currently Hospitalized
918 <- 96% reporting (was 916 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,683,384


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1642 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
498 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+38 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1009 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2140 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

338 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-7)
Nursing Homes 205 -> 204
Resident Care 96 -> 91
Correctional 36 -> 35
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1137 positive cases over 30944* new tests. 3.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30944 but DHHS claims only 22513 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/16
9/15(2), 9/14(13), 9/13(6), 9/12(5), 9/11, 9/10, 9/8(2), 9/6(3), 9/5, 9/4, 9/3(2), 9/2, 8/29, 8/25, 8/14

2 missing DoD assigned Dates

One Death Removed
9/7 (Gaston)
9/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
189,576
NC Deaths
3180
Currently Hospitalized
894 <- 96% reporting (was 918 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,714,175


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1654 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
508 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+31 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1018 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
2162 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

332 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-6)
Nursing Homes 204 -> 201
Resident Care 91 -> 87
Correctional 35 -> 35
Other 8 -> 9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1552 positive cases over 30791* new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30944 but DHHS claims only 24950 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/17
9/16(5), 9/15(8), 9/14(8), 9/11(2), 9/8, 9/4, 9/3, 9/1, 8/23, 8/17, 8/16(2), 8/8, 8/3, 7/10

Deaths REMOVED 9/17
8/27, 8/18, 8/14

With so many changes still double checking.
9/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
191,019
NC Deaths
3207
Currently Hospitalized
904 <- 94% reporting (was 894 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,749,020


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1670 Deaths are now Congregate (+16)
511 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1026 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2181 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

336 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 201 -> 204
Resident Care 87 -> 89
Correctional 35 -> 35
Other 9 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1443 positive cases over 34875* new tests. 4.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 34875 but DHHS claims only 25978 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/18
9/17(3), 9/16(11), 9/15, 9/14(2), 9/10, 9/9, 9/8, 9/7, 9/1, 8/30, 8/18, 8/10, 8/9, 7/21

1 death removed 8/3
9/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
192,248
NC Deaths
3235
Currently Hospitalized
882 <- 96% reporting (was 904 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,771,020


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1686 Deaths are now Congregate (+16)
519 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1030 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
2205 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 204 -> 212
Resident Care 89 -> 92
Correctional 35 -> 34
Other 8 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1229 positive cases over 22000* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22000 but DHHS claims only 14219 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/19
9/18(3), 9/17(6), 9/16(3), 9/15(2), 9/14, 9/13(4), 9/12, 9/10, 9/9(2), 9/8, 9/5(3), 8/27, 8/1

1 new missing DoD.

Peak DoD 8/1 increases 39 -> 40

9/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
193,581
NC Deaths
3243
Currently Hospitalized
889 <- 94% reporting (was 882 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,804,818


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1687 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
520 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1036 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
2207 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

346 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 212 -> 213
Resident Care 92 -> 92
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1333 positive cases over 33798* new tests. 3.9% positive rate. (DHHS 4.6%)

Delta completed tests 33798 but DHHS claims only 17478 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/20
9/19, 9/18, 9/16, 9/15(2), 9/13, 9/11, 9/7, 8/19
6 of the deaths are from Alamance

One Death Removed 9/5 (Currituck)
9/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
194,381
NC Deaths
3247
Currently Hospitalized
885 <- 95% reporting (was 889 at 94%)
Completed Tests
2,817,539

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1688 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
522 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1037 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
2210 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

339 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-7)
Nursing Homes 213 -> 207
Resident Care 92 -> 91
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 7 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


800 positive cases over 12721* new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 12721 but DHHS claims only 8231 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 9/21
9/20, 9/19, 9/17, 8/4
9/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
195,549
NC Deaths
3286
Currently Hospitalized
905 <- 96% reporting (was 885 at 95%)
Completed Tests
2,824,929

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1710 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
526 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+39 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1050 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
2236 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+26)

337 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-2)
Nursing Homes 207 -> 205
Resident Care 91 -> 89
Correctional 34 -> 35
Other 7 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1168 positive cases over 7390* new tests. XX% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 7390 but DHHS claims only BLANK completed tests
*** Has to be something wrong with reporting, the case delta doesn't make sense. DHHS did not actually enter a value for 'Completed Tests' for the date 9/22

Dates of Death Reported 9/22
9/21(6), 9/20(8), 9/19(7), 9/18(7), 9/17(2), 9/16, 9/15, 9/14, 9/5, 8/30, 8/27, 8/20, 6/29

1 new missing DoD
9/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
196,501
NC Deaths
3316
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 97% reporting (was 905 at 96%)
Completed Tests
2,842,427

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1731 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
527 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

1058 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
2258 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

341 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 205 -> 209
Resident Care 89 -> 88
Correctional 35 -> 37
Other 8 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


952 positive cases over 17498* new tests. 5.4% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 9/23
9/22(5), 9/21(4), 9/20, 9/19(2), 9/18(2), 9/17(2), 9/16, 9/15(2), 9/12, 9/11, 9/9, 9/2, 8/28, 8/25, 8/19, 8/15, 8/12, 8/11, 7/27

9 deaths out of Rutherford
5 deaths out of Edgecombe
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packgrad
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In reply to byrd77pack • 12:44p, 9/23/20
byrd77pack said:



Meanwhile, this is President Trump's response last night in PA.

How do the more than 200k families feel about this lack of care or concern from him and these supporters?


I don't think anybody is requiring Democrats to leave their homes. You can stay safe locked inside. Must have missed your posts about the same issue when governors and mayors were marching with the looters.
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Wayland
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12:55p, 9/23/20




New Graph trying to show deaths over the course of a week.

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cowboypack02
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In reply to byrd77pack • 1:33p, 9/23/20
byrd77pack said:



Meanwhile, this is President Trump's response last night in PA.

How do the more than 200k families feel about this lack of care or concern from him and these supporters?
How do 200k people feel about politicians running to large funerals for people like George Floyd, or those same politicians allowing large "peaceful" protest but not allowing folks to hold funerals over 10 people for their loved ones?

How about the mayor of DC telling everyone that they have to quarantine for 2 weeks coming into DC, but excluded all of the politicians that decided to run to Atlanta for a funeral.

Wanna talk about Nancy Pelosi going out and getting haircuts while no one else is allowed to to help spread a virus?

How do you think the 33K people who lost a love one in New York feel about the governor forcing people infected with covid back into nursing homes with an extremely at risk population? You know that half of the deaths in NY came from those nursing homes.

Politicians in NY expected you to quarantine for 2 weeks coming into the state....but that didn't apply for the musicians that went up for an awards show.

Guess all those democrat politicians only cared about things like covid and stopping the spread when it was beneficial to them...right?

Do you want to keep going here?

This topic has basically stuck to the actual coronavirus numbers and how our local government has handled it for the last month or two....how about we keep it on that instead of some stupid hot take like you have above
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Daviewolf83
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1:55p, 9/23/20
Staff
I thought some people might find it interesting how my son's university is tracking Covid cases on campus among students and staff. They are still open to in-person classes (my son as a mix of in-person and online) and are doing random surveillance testing now on a weekly basis. The first graph below shows overall results, tracking back to when they students returned on 8/17. Please note there are currently 58 active cases and 69 cases are now recovered.

The second graph shows the separate results for the surveillance testing. It shows that cumulatively, 1% of tests (out of 1,258 tests) have been positive and last week, the percent positive was 0.5% for the 600 tests conducted. The university is also conducting contact tracing of students. All on-campus students and those in contact trace are removed from the campus environment and quarantined in an off-campus facility for 14 days. During this time, the university brings them meals and they can take all of their classes on-line.

I will also mention that there is no fraternity/sorority rush this semester, no on-campus parties or large gatherings, and the campus is closed to all outside visitors. Students on campus are not allowed to have overnight visitors. Wake Forest has three entrances, but only two are open and the open entrances are staffed with security 24/7. If someone wants to visit campus, they must submit the request in writing and they are allowed to visit only for a specific day and time. All students were tested prior to arriving to campus in August. All off-campus parties at fraternity and sorority houses, along with university housing off-campus are monitored closely for parties or other large gatherings. I understand several students have already been suspended for the semester and sent home for violating the guidelines on parties and large gatherings.

You can see the entire dashboard at this link: Wake Forest University - Our Way Forward




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