All tests, for everything, have the potential for both false positives and false negatives. This is nothing at all unique to covid. It's the very reason perfectly healthy people don't get random MRIsif something is found, it's more likely to be a false positive than a true positive.

If you start heavily testing a population that is very unlikely to have a condition, the majority of your positive tests are going to be negative.

Even if your false positive rate is tiny, this is the inevitable statistical consequence of a very low pre-test probability. So the NBA's false positive issue is entirely predictable.

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/June/Why-Pretest-and-Posttest-Probability-Matter-in-the

"nothing at all unique to covid"

I'll have to remember that one... sounds like we now have some talking out of both sides of our mouth going on here...

I bet if one lab produced 77 false negatives it would be considered unusual.

TheStorm said:

---

"nothing at all unique to covid"

I'll have to remember that one... sounds like we now have some talking out of both sides of our mouth going on here...

---

Every single test in medicine has both a false positive and false negative rate. This is fact to be understood, not some sort of political spin.

packgrad said:

---

---

This is a good table, but I think he loses his way a little in referencing the Cohort number rather than the Survival rate. I think it's worth showing that the survival rate for 85+ is much worse than for those under, for example

For the sake of argument, assume a test has a false positive rate of 0.1%, or that 999/1000 times, when the result is positive, the patient has the virus. This would be an extraordinarily low false positive rate, just as a reference.

If you have a group of 1 million people, none of whom have the virus, and you administer a test to all of them, 1,000 people (0.001x1,000,000) will test positive, and every single one of them will be a false positive.

If the test has a 1% false positive rate, and you test 1000 people who are virus free, there will be 10 false positive results.

If 500/1000 people DO have covid, the numbers change dramatically. It seems counter-intuitive, but this is why base rates matter in testing.

If anyone wants to actually learn about this, they can do so here:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897

Nobody is questioning whether medical tests have false results or what goes into that. Perhaps the false positive and negative rate of tests is insignificant when it comes to Covid, but when a hard and fast number has been established as a target for lessening restrictions, I would like to at least know how accurate the tests are that are being used to establish that hard and fast number. If false positives account for even .1% of the positive test rate being reported, and that .1% keeps businesses from being able to reopen, that would be a significant piece of information to know. Does the positive percentage rate that the Governor is looking at account in any way for potential false results, or is it just a straight calculation of number of positive tests out of the total number of completed?

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

---

8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10

---

8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9

---

8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

---

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.

---

8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total

---

8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28

---

8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.

---

8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13

---

8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date

---

8/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
156,396
NC Deaths
2535
Currently Hospitalized
948 <- 83% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,087,695

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS on 8/23.
BELOW IS 2 DAY CHANGE 8/23 and 8/24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1287 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
420 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 on 8/23)

828 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1707 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 199
Resident Care 109 -> 109
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2562* deaths

1283 positive cases over 9223* new tests. 14% positive rate. <- college outbreak testing(?)

Delta completed tests 9223 but DHHS claims only 9003 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/24
8/23, 8/22(3)

Reviewing additional data

packgrad said:

---

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Interesting - I wonder if this will be passed along for places like daycares. Currently we went through a confirmed COVID case of a staff member and the whole daycare had to shutdown and technically the kids were supposed to quarantine for two weeks. We got them tested (and us) and confirmed no one had it and then went back to normal social distancing.

statefan91 said:

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packgrad said:

---

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Interesting - I wonder if this will be passed along for places like daycares. Currently we went through a confirmed COVID case of a staff member and the whole daycare had to shutdown and technically the kids were supposed to quarantine for two weeks. We got them tested (and us) and confirmed no one had it and then went back to normal social distancing.

---

Was the staff member symptomatic or asymptomatic?

Symptomatic (technically, since they're being so broad with COVID symptoms). She went to her doctor for headaches and they tested her and she had it.

Wow. Granville Towers at UNC is up to 133 cases out of somewhere between 900 and 1000 residents. Almost no way everyone in that building wasn't exposed.

And now they are sending them to all corners.....

That's crazy, 9/11 is still super far away and we have no indication of what our next steps will be. I'm a movie fanatic and I have been waiting for movie theaters to open back up. AMC movie theaters have reopened in many states.

packgrad said:

---

---

LOL. Our state is probably going to be one of the most consistently shut down states in the country soon. Some moved forward then scaled back. NC... nah we've been held back the entire time. And now we have our college kids skewing our numbers back up again. So we still have increases like everywhere else despite have more places shut down and more restrictions. Virus going to virus and Cooper going to Cooper I guess.

Was this posted before? As of August 11th NC was the 3rd most restricted state. And still not great results

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818/

wilmwolf80 said:

---

Still haven't heard a solid explanation as to why gyms can't be open with proper protocols. Just vagaries about heavy breathing, but if heavy breathing was an issue, then Walmart shouldn't be open.

---

The funny thing is...my gym and several others in my area have been open since June. Low and behold there have been no massive outbreaks. There are definitely bars open in my area as well... I don't go out but I've seen pictures and talked to people who have been. So if my county is skirting rules then I'm sure most of the other areas are too and the only thing that's even causing numbers to tick up is college kids. I wonder if Cooper realizes how much is actually slipping through his fingers.

King Leary said:

---

Was this posted before? As of August 11th NC was the 3rd most restricted state. And still not great results

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818/

---

I would argue that North Carolina has had pretty good results for COVID actually. I think it's time to open some additional things up and I've always been on the side of not locking stuff down like crazy, but pretty sure our metrics have been good for COVID.

King Leary said:

---

NC's response has been bad by almost every metric. Look at the link I just posted, we fall under the "Many restrictions and high COVID death rate" category.

---

But we haven't had a high COVID death rate.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Based on this, we're at 24 per 100,000 people. That is #21 (including Puerto Rico)

Georgia is ranked higher in your chart's methodology, but also has 2x the death rate that North Carolina does. I'm not sure I follow.

Correct looks like how they are calculating death rate is off. They lay out the methodology for determining highest amount of restrictions but not how they determined death rate. NY is way to low on death rate.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

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Quote:

---

8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10

---

8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9

---

8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

---

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.

---

8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total

---

8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28

---

8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.

---

8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13

---

8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date

---

8/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
156,396
NC Deaths
2535
Currently Hospitalized
948 <- 83% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,087,695

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS on 8/23.
BELOW IS 2 DAY CHANGE 8/23 and 8/24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1287 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
420 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 on 8/23)

828 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1707 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 199
Resident Care 109 -> 109
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2562* deaths

1283 positive cases over 9223* new tests. 14% positive rate. <- college outbreak testing(?)

Delta completed tests 9223 but DHHS claims only 9003 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/24
8/23, 8/22(3)

Reviewing additional data

---

8/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
157,741
NC Deaths
2570
Currently Hospitalized
1000 <- 92% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,102,359


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1302 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
430 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

838 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1732 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+25)

371 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 202
Resident Care 109 -> 110
Correctional 46 -> 48
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2574* deaths

1345 positive cases over 14644* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 14644 but DHHS claims only 8467 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/25
8/24(3), 8/23(8), 8/21(10), 8/20(7), 8/15(2), 8/2

Four new MISSING Dates of Death (now 6 total).

King Leary said:

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Correct looks like how they are calculating death rate is off. They lay out the methodology for determining highest amount of restrictions but not how they determined death rate. NY is way to low on death rate.

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All that to say - I'd be very happy if they backed off some of our existing restrictions, but I think as a State we've done relatively well compared to our peers.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Still haven't heard a solid explanation as to why gyms can't be open with proper protocols. Just vagaries about heavy breathing, but if heavy breathing was an issue, then Walmart shouldn't be open.

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Alright that got me to laugh out loud

packgrad don't be mad but I'm linking to a Brett Jensen tweet:

statefan91 said:

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packgrad don't be mad but I'm linking to a Brett Jensen tweet:

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I think my posting patterns clearly show I have rights to Jensen and Travis tweets. We'll let it slide this time.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Still haven't heard a solid explanation as to why gyms can't be open with proper protocols. Just vagaries about heavy breathing, but if heavy breathing was an issue, then Walmart shouldn't be open.

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That was quite humorous.

Packchem91 said:

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So for our data guys who have been tracking this and the impact of the data on our general local government response.....I see the CDC has said asymptomatic do not need to be tested, is that right?

Which tends to fly in the face of what NC leaders have been saying with the "test, test, test" mantra?
And won't that impact the ever-important % positive testing metric? If general public no longer needs to get tested, and we're really only testing those with symptoms, would seem the % positive would increase again (even if total cases, hospitalizations, deaths decrease)??

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Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding!!!!!

BTW, I went to my primary last Thursday to get my meds updated... and at the end I asked him if I should get tested for Covid... his response was "do you feel sick, have you had any exposure to someone that you knew was sick" and I said "well, no"... he said, "then why would you need to get tested"?