TheStorm said:

---

^^ Man... they sure are coming up with a **** ton of deaths all of a sudden... but somehow with no other data point to support it. I can only begin to imagine how badly we've had the wool pulled over our eyes on these numbers over the last three months.

---

Based on current trends, I believe you will see daily deaths (deaths by the date of the death) to continue to decline. I am looking at the daily census of Covid patients in ICU and mapping this to the daily deaths (by date of death) over the same period. If you assume Covid patients in ICUs are the most severe cases and the most likely to suffer adverse outcomes, you could assume this would be reflected in the number of deaths you see daily (ie., deaths decline as Covid ICU census declines). If you look at the graph below, you can see the Covid patient ICU census peaked in late July and it has continued down since this timeframe. The deaths by date of death trend is also trending down, even assuming some deaths in the past week to week and a half have not been reported yet.

Additionally, you can see the deaths by the date of announce and the deaths by the date of death trends are trending down. Hopefully, this means we will continue to see a daily reduction in deaths in North Carolina.

Covid Patient ICU Daily Census vs Daily Deaths by Date of Death:




Deaths by Date of Announce vs Deaths by Date of Death with Trends:

I just saw this Tweet regarding how Covid-19 deaths are counted in Arizona. It would be nice if our wonderful news media would ask Dr. Cohen if this is the practice NC is following or if NC is applying a different standard.

Have noticed a decline over the last several days nationwide. As someone who isn't an expert at all, what do the smart ones here see as the reason for that?

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Have noticed a decline over the last several days nationwide. As someone who isn't an expert at all, what do the smart ones here see as the reason for that?

---

Here's three:

Economic contraction without stimulus money = more people stay home.

The number who can be infected is less than at the outset.

People in non-mask wearing areas were spooked a couple of weeks ago into wearing them.


I know Duke and Carolina health systems think NC is now past it's peak.


There will be a post-Labor Day peak, but probably not nearly as large as the main peak. That will not hit until about September 20-October 10. Two things happen in conjunction with Labor Day, people out at beaches and lakes, and kids going home from college since there is no fall break. It will take them about 3 days to infect the infectable and another 2 weeks for those infected to split into those that don't or barely react and those that will need hospitalization. That might mean a mini-death peak around November 1.

lumberpack5 said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Have noticed a decline over the last several days nationwide. As someone who isn't an expert at all, what do the smart ones here see as the reason for that?

---

Here's three:

Economic contraction without stimulus money = more people stay home.

The number who can be infected is less than at the outset.

People in non-mask wearing areas were spooked a couple of weeks ago into wearing them.


I know Duke and Carolina health systems think NC is now past it's peak.

---

Based on the data, NC is definitely past its peak. Deaths have lagged, but now appear to be trending down (see my earlier post). Cases peaked several weeks ago (in late July) and hospitalizations have been trending down since early August. The percent positive tests has also declined over the past couple of weeks, although the trend appears to be flattening out around 6.5% (NCDHHS's target is 5%).

Nationally, the virus is definitely receding in the some of the previous hot spots of Arizona, Texas, and Florida. Need to keep an eye on Georgia and a couple of other states, including California. For some of the states that were hard hit early, there are some interesting and compelling studies suggesting antibodies and T-Cells present from previous coronovirus infections may be contributing to herd immunity. There seems to be some evidence that herd immunity can be reached at much lower infection percentages than previously considered (20% versus 60-70% of population infected). Still need to see more data and studies, but it is something worth watching.

Internationally, some of the countries that believed they had the virus under control are finding it hard to manage. In New Zealand, where they had claimed victory and had been quarantining all travelers for 14 days, they have had to return to lockdowns, after seeing an uptick in cases. Australia is seeing an increase in cases and are putting control measures back in place. In Spain, a country that has much higher mask wearing compliance than they US, they have seen an uptick in cases over the past few weeks. The same is true for Germany, France, and the UK. In Sweden, the virus is waning and deaths are on par with NY.

Although many people will still go for a shortened Labor Day weekend, a number of colleges, including State, have moved observation of Labor Day to the Christmas holidays. Of course, with online classes, one can attend (or not) class from anywhere.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Have noticed a decline over the last several days nationwide. As someone who isn't an expert at all, what do the smart ones here see as the reason for that?

---

Not sure. HIT, seasonality, maybe some combination of both? I never was initially too into seasonality, but the whole south took a right turn at about the same time. So it is possible. So many different factors.

On the 5% thing. PHE testing was at 5.1% last week, but Mandy doesn't like to talk surveillance.

Don't worry, if the numbers get too good, we'll just randomly lose or find a bunch of tests. Getting really hard to keep chalking the data manipulation as just incompetence or user entry errors. I've held out hope for a long time that it was just incompetence, but I am losing that hope.

Good trends here in Charlotte but amazes me they still don't count negative test results from CVS, etc in the % positives

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10

---

8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9

---

8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

---

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.

---

8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total

---

8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28

---

8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.

Packchem91 said:

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Good trends here in Charlotte but amazes me they still don't count negative test results from CVS, etc in the % positives

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But yet, they want everyone to vote by mail baby!

wilmwolf80 said:

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Don't worry, if the numbers get too good, we'll just randomly lose or find a bunch of tests. Getting really hard to keep chalking the data manipulation as just incompetence or user entry errors. I've held out hope for a long time that it was just incompetence, but I am losing that hope.

---

Until we get through these college outbreaks, cases are going to be up for a while. Hopefully it doesn't lead to serious illness or hospitalizations.

Wayland said:

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Until we get through these college outbreaks, cases are going to be up for a while. Hopefully it doesn't lead to serious illness or hospitalizations.

---

Glad you mentioned, I was going to ask if you were seeing any type of spike that tied to the startup of those outbreaks / in-person schools. Seems there would have to be one...but would also hope b/c it will be young adults / kids impacted, there wouldn't be a run on hospitals.

Packchem91 said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Until we get through these college outbreaks, cases are going to be up for a while. Hopefully it doesn't lead to serious illness or hospitalizations.

---

Glad you mentioned, I was going to ask if you were seeing any type of spike that tied to the startup of those outbreaks / in-person schools. Seems there would have to be one...but would also hope b/c it will be young adults / kids impacted, there wouldn't be a run on hospitals.

---

Below is a graph that shows the daily new cases reported for four counties in NC for the past two weeks. I have picked the counties that house NC State (Wake), UNC (Orange), Duke (Durham), and ECU (Pitt). These four counties are good representations of the larger universities in NC. You can see there are definitely upticks in the past several days in the daily reported cases, with the exception of Durham (Duke).

I hope you find this helpful.

Davie --- sign of a person who is experienced at putting together useful graphs: you choose fonts that align with the school colors for the counties in scope. Well done!

Yes, this was helpful and interesting. I'll have to look at Union County -- we started back public schools this week with a rolling 25% attendance each day. So my daughter went in person one day, remote the other 4. I was impressed with the screening, but I'm sure there will be some cases that slip into the schools and then grab others.

ETA: I suppose the significance of each those spikes aligns with the opinions you'd already formed about Covid and how we should respond to it.

Daviewolf83 said:

---

Packchem91 said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Until we get through these college outbreaks, cases are going to be up for a while. Hopefully it doesn't lead to serious illness or hospitalizations.

---

Glad you mentioned, I was going to ask if you were seeing any type of spike that tied to the startup of those outbreaks / in-person schools. Seems there would have to be one...but would also hope b/c it will be young adults / kids impacted, there wouldn't be a run on hospitals.

---

Below is a graph that shows the daily new cases reported for four counties in NC for the past two weeks. I have picked the counties that house NC State (Wake), UNC (Orange), Duke (Durham), and ECU (Pitt). These four counties are good representations of the larger universities in NC. You can see there are definitely upticks in the past several days in the daily reported cases, with the exception of Durham (Duke).

I hope you find this helpful.

---

Just for reference regarding Wake County. Cary actually had a NET of MINUS 2 cases today and only a NET of 3 cases over that 2 day Wake spike. That has to be mostly students.

When does NC re-evaluate Phase 2 again? September 11 or so?

For those wondering about death reporting in Arizona, this seems to be an interesting way to tally Covid-19 deaths. Arizona is counting a death as a Covid-19 death if the person had a positive Covid test 60 days prior to the death.

I wonder if the state of NC has broadened their definition as well? Of course, this would be something that the news media could ask about, since they are the ones with weekly access to the governor and Dr. Cohen.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10

---

8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9

---

8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

---

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.

---

8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total

---

8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28

---

8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.

---

8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13

Mormad, I hope your daughter is safe and well.

Under 1000 hospitalizations for the first time in a while

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

---

8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10

---

8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9

---

8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

---

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

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1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.

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8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

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1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total

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8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28

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8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.

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8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13

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8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date

Mormad said:

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PackMom said:

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Mormad, I hope your daughter is safe and well.

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Happiest I've ever seen her. She has adjusted well, her teammates are amazing and sweet and funny, and they're practicing hard. Got their adidas swag yesterday, so it was like Christmas for the girls. I'm so proud of her, her team, her coaches, and our incredible University for how they're handling a really tough and different time. So far so good. I pray it continues.

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Excellent. Glad she is doing well and the University is doing everything they can to help them compete.

Mormad said:

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PackMom said:

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Mormad, I hope your daughter is safe and well.

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Happiest I've ever seen her. She has adjusted well, her teammates are amazing and sweet and funny, and they're practicing hard. Got their adidas swag yesterday, so it was like Christmas for the girls. I'm so proud of her, her team, her coaches, and our incredible University for how they're handling a really tough and different time. So far so good. I pray it continues.

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Great news! So glad to hear it.

Could be a significant development:

Trump Clears the Way For More Convalescent Plasma Use to Fight COVID

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/bryan-preston/2020/08/23/trump-clears-the-way-for-convalescent-plasma-use-to-fight-covid-n829894

Mormad said:

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PackMom said:

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Mormad, I hope your daughter is safe and well.

---

Happiest I've ever seen her. She has adjusted well, her teammates are amazing and sweet and funny, and they're practicing hard. Got their adidas swag yesterday, so it was like Christmas for the girls. I'm so proud of her, her team, her coaches, and our incredible University for how they're handling a really tough and different time. So far so good. I pray it continues.

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I am happy to hear she is having a good experience and things are going well. I remember when my son first got to school and started getting all his Nike swag from the team - he called and went through the list of everything he got. It is like Christmas for him too.

I hope the university and coaches can keep your daughter and her team in the bubble and they get to keep training and eventually have some swim meets.

Several cases of false positive tests in the NFL this weekend. I have to think there are a lot of false positives out there.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/nfl-positive-covid-19-tests-from-nj-lab-could-be-false

DrummerboyWolf said:

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Several cases of false positive tests in the NFL this weekend. I have to think there are a lot of false positives out there.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/nfl-positive-covid-19-tests-from-nj-lab-could-be-false

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77 false positives for the NFL. Good thing they have the money and resources to be able to retest all those errors.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-teams-could-alter-workouts-sunday-after-several-positive-coronavirus-test-results-140204758.html

It remains interesting to me that we hear all about the issues with the antibody tests, but no one seems to talk much about the false results on the other tests. I don't know that it is a widespread issue, but I've seen multiple reports of false positives, and some of false negatives as well, and you just wonder how any of that is being factored in to these numbers that we are living our lives around. When one of the stated criteria for moving to phase 3 is the positive test rate being below a certain level, or when positive tests are being used as justification for shutting down entire universities, it kinda matters how many false results there are.