Coronavirus

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Wayland
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Packchem91 said:

So for our data guys who have been tracking this and the impact of the data on our general local government response.....I see the CDC has said asymptomatic do not need to be tested, is that right?

Which tends to fly in the face of what NC leaders have been saying with the "test, test, test" mantra?
And won't that impact the ever-important % positive testing metric? If general public no longer needs to get tested, and we're really only testing those with symptoms, would seem the % positive would increase again (even if total cases, hospitalizations, deaths decrease)??
Our current administration doesn't believe in the data and science they tout. They have a narrative and they stick to it.

The '% positive' metric is a bit over valued.

The % positive in a congregate outbreak (prison, LTC, dorm) MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of patients with CLI seeking care in an ED which MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a random sampling of a population WHICH MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a group of people who you basically know to be negative but are just pumping test numbers.

The problem is that each of these things CAN have value on their own to show trends, impact, etc. When you throw them all in one 'percent positive' pot, the story each tells gets very muddy.

The problem I have with the percent positive metric, is that the number '5%' means nothing on its own. Maybe that is a valuable for hospital setting (probably where it originated) but when you throw an outbreak in you will increase it, when you throw random people being tested for no reason, you are likely to decrease it.

The problem is that throwing all these random tests taken in different environments and under different conditions is that they DEVALUE the percent positive metric. They each can tell different stories and should be allowed to do so. An arbitrary metric which can be manipulated is dumb.

So, yes, it is possible that by reducing asymptomatic testing we could increase the % positive. We should be tracking percent positives separately. ED % and General Sampling % THEN ADDITIONALLY contained outbreaks (prison, LTC, dorm) should not be included in those since they do not represent widespread community but rather closed outbreaks.
Wayland
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Interesting Twitter thread.

Packchem91
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Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

So for our data guys who have been tracking this and the impact of the data on our general local government response.....I see the CDC has said asymptomatic do not need to be tested, is that right?

Which tends to fly in the face of what NC leaders have been saying with the "test, test, test" mantra?
And won't that impact the ever-important % positive testing metric? If general public no longer needs to get tested, and we're really only testing those with symptoms, would seem the % positive would increase again (even if total cases, hospitalizations, deaths decrease)??
Our current administration doesn't believe in the data and science they tout. They have a narrative and they stick to it.

The '% positive' metric is a bit over valued.

The % positive in a congregate outbreak (prison, LTC, dorm) MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of patients with CLI seeking care in an ED which MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a random sampling of a population WHICH MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a group of people who you basically know to be negative but are just pumping test numbers.

The problem is that each of these things CAN have value on their own to show trends, impact, etc. When you throw them all in one 'percent positive' pot, the story each tells gets very muddy.

The problem I have with the percent positive metric, is that the number '5%' means nothing on its own. Maybe that is a valuable for hospital setting (probably where it originated) but when you throw an outbreak in you will increase it, when you throw random people being tested for no reason, you are likely to decrease it.

The problem is that throwing all these random tests taken in different environments and under different conditions is that they DEVALUE the percent positive metric. They each can tell different stories and should be allowed to do so. An arbitrary metric which can be manipulated is dumb.

So, yes, it is possible that by reducing asymptomatic testing we could increase the % positive. We should be tracking percent positives separately. ED % and General Sampling % THEN ADDITIONALLY contained outbreaks (prison, LTC, dorm) should not be included in those since they do not represent widespread community but rather closed outbreaks.
Thanks -- and I agree -- any metric in a vacuum may be misleading. I've always thought the governor's approach, including metrics, should be two-tiered -- one for LTC and one for gen pop.
And to your point, while I think the impact of the schools should be included in general pop reporting (because those people intersect with the rest of society).at minimum there should be footnotes added to it.

I guess we'll just wait and see how the goal posts are moved.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10
8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9
8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.

8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.
8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total
8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28
8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.
8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13
8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date
8/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
156,396
NC Deaths
2535
Currently Hospitalized
948 <- 83% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,087,695

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS on 8/23.
BELOW IS 2 DAY CHANGE 8/23 and 8/24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1287 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
420 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 on 8/23)

828 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1707 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 199
Resident Care 109 -> 109
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2562* deaths

1283 positive cases over 9223* new tests. 14% positive rate. <- college outbreak testing(?)

Delta completed tests 9223 but DHHS claims only 9003 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/24
8/23, 8/22(3)

Reviewing additional data

8/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
157,741
NC Deaths
2570
Currently Hospitalized
1000 <- 92% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,102,359


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1302 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
430 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

838 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1732 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+25)

371 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 202
Resident Care 109 -> 110
Correctional 46 -> 48
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2574* deaths

1345 positive cases over 14644* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 14644 but DHHS claims only 8467 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/25
8/24(3), 8/23(8), 8/21(10), 8/20(7), 8/15(2), 8/2

Four new MISSING Dates of Death (now 6 total).

8/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
158,985
NC Deaths
2606
Currently Hospitalized
1004 <- 90% reporting (was 1000 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,121,001


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1323 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
437 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

846 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1760 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+28)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-13)
Nursing Homes 202 -> 196
Resident Care 110 -> 105
Correctional 48 -> 45
Other 11 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2599* deaths

1244 positive cases over 18642* new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 18642 but DHHS claims only 15303 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/26
8/25(6), 8/24(11), 8/23(10), 8/22(2), 8/21(3), 8/20, 8/19, 8/15, 8/11, 8/9, 8/8, 8/5, 8/4

FlossyDFlynt
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Guess were not following science anymore
Wayland
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Well, the Twitter function doesnt want to work, so heres the link



Guess were not following science anymore

Edit: I give up, its copied below

[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]Joe Bruno

@JoeBrunoWSOC9
[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]


Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

No kidding. As I was watching the briefing, I scrolled through my Facebook feed and found a nice sponsored ad from NC DHHS directing me where I could find free testing in my area. They REALLY want me to get tested.

ncsualum05
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Wayland said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Well, the Twitter function doesnt want to work, so heres the link



Guess were not following science anymore

Edit: I give up, its copied below

[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]Joe Bruno

@JoeBrunoWSOC9
[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]


Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

No kidding. As I was watching the briefing, I scrolled through my Facebook feed and found a nice sponsored ad from NC DHHS directing me where I could find free testing in my area. They REALLY want me to get tested.
LOL. Slowly but surely more people are not giving a ****. Which is why the testing is down. Now that CDC has changed guidelines they are in panic mode to keep this thing going. My wife got a rapid test to be on the safe side over the weekend. Turns out we had a case of the good ole fashion rhinovirus (cold) in our house. Everyone got sick but me. My children brought it home from school. Called pediatrician... nurse wasn't even worried about COVID. Said if anything we need to test for strep... that was bad right now.
FlossyDFlynt
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It was also pointed out to me that today is the first day of budget proposal for NC, then I saw this quote from Roy as part of today's press conference.

[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]

Its all coming full circle now
Civilized
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Guess were not following science anymore

Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

Are you saying NC isn't following science because they're not following the CDC's guidance?
Everpack
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ncsualum05 said:

Wayland said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Well, the Twitter function doesnt want to work, so heres the link



Guess were not following science anymore

Edit: I give up, its copied below

[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]Joe Bruno

@JoeBrunoWSOC9
[url=https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9][/url]


Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

No kidding. As I was watching the briefing, I scrolled through my Facebook feed and found a nice sponsored ad from NC DHHS directing me where I could find free testing in my area. They REALLY want me to get tested.
LOL. Slowly but surely more people are not giving a ****. Which is why the testing is down. Now that CDC has changed guidelines they are in panic mode to keep this thing going. My wife got a rapid test to be on the safe side over the weekend. Turns out we had a case of the good ole fashion rhinovirus (cold) in our house. Everyone got sick but me. My children brought it home from school. Called pediatrician... nurse wasn't even worried about COVID. Said if anything we need to test for strep... that was bad right now.


Yep. Folks are finally starting to realize they've been had for 6 months. I realized as I was walking into the grocery store this afternoon that I forgot my mask in the truck and thought, ya know what, screw it. What a liberating experience. There's only one way to end this and that's for people to just stop listening to the bull***** Live life as you want to live it.
FlossyDFlynt
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Civilized said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Guess were not following science anymore

Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

Are you saying NC isn't following science because they're not following the CDC's guidance?
What I am saying, as I had said for months, is that Cooper is picking and choosing what he wants to believe to push his agenda. He has been hiding under the guide of "science" for months, and now that the science isnt with guidance, he isnt budging. As I said in my previous post, this is a mighty convenient statement to come on the first day of budget proposals. He isnt letting a crisis go to waste
Civilized
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Civilized said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Guess were not following science anymore

Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

Are you saying NC isn't following science because they're not following the CDC's guidance?
What I am saying, as I had said for months, is that Cooper is picking and choosing what he wants to believe to push his agenda. He has been hiding under the guide of "science" for months, and now that the science isnt with guidance, he isnt budging. As I said in my previous post, this is a mighty convenient statement to come on the first day of budget proposals. He isnt letting a crisis go to waste

I agree that the state's data is opaque and/or suspect, or both, and has been politicized.

I just didn't know if you were calling the CDC's guidance 'science' when it's clear they got pressured from the executive branch to modify their testing recommendations. Their recommendations have been politicized too.

I'm tired as **** of politicians on both sides being the ones who manage COVID responses. Their motivations are not sufficiently aligned with most Americans on this issue.
bigeric
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I detect a growing weariness, but deservedly so.
Like I said, if you cant get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
Wayland
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Civilized said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Guess were not following science anymore

Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

Are you saying NC isn't following science because they're not following the CDC's guidance?
What I am saying, as I had said for months, is that Cooper is picking and choosing what he wants to believe to push his agenda. He has been hiding under the guide of "science" for months, and now that the science isnt with guidance, he isnt budging. As I said in my previous post, this is a mighty convenient statement to come on the first day of budget proposals. He isnt letting a crisis go to waste
I would cheer the day that Cooper actually openly cited all the 'science' used to make policy decisions so that it could be properly reviewed and/or countered with additional studies.
GoPack2008
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Civilized said:

FlossyDFlynt said:

Guess were not following science anymore

Governor Roy Cooper: "We want more people to get tested." Governor Cooper says the state wants asymptomatic people who have been in close contact with COVID-19 positive cases to get tested

Dr. Cohen:
"The CDC has changed their guidance. North Carolina has not."

Are you saying NC isn't following science because they're not following the CDC's guidance?
FWIW, the change in CDC guidelines is pretty controversial among a lot of public health/epidemiology folks.

To my non-expert eye, it doesn't really make a lot of sense.
SupplyChainPack
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Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

So for our data guys who have been tracking this and the impact of the data on our general local government response.....I see the CDC has said asymptomatic do not need to be tested, is that right?

Which tends to fly in the face of what NC leaders have been saying with the "test, test, test" mantra?
And won't that impact the ever-important % positive testing metric? If general public no longer needs to get tested, and we're really only testing those with symptoms, would seem the % positive would increase again (even if total cases, hospitalizations, deaths decrease)??
Our current administration doesn't believe in the data and science they tout. They have a narrative and they stick to it.

The '% positive' metric is a bit over valued.

The % positive in a congregate outbreak (prison, LTC, dorm) MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of patients with CLI seeking care in an ED which MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a random sampling of a population WHICH MEANS SOMETHING DIFFERENT
than the % positive of a group of people who you basically know to be negative but are just pumping test numbers.

The problem is that each of these things CAN have value on their own to show trends, impact, etc. When you throw them all in one 'percent positive' pot, the story each tells gets very muddy.

The problem I have with the percent positive metric, is that the number '5%' means nothing on its own. Maybe that is a valuable for hospital setting (probably where it originated) but when you throw an outbreak in you will increase it, when you throw random people being tested for no reason, you are likely to decrease it.

The problem is that throwing all these random tests taken in different environments and under different conditions is that they DEVALUE the percent positive metric. They each can tell different stories and should be allowed to do so. An arbitrary metric which can be manipulated is dumb.

So, yes, it is possible that by reducing asymptomatic testing we could increase the % positive. We should be tracking percent positives separately. ED % and General Sampling % THEN ADDITIONALLY contained outbreaks (prison, LTC, dorm) should not be included in those since they do not represent widespread community but rather closed outbreaks.


Really good points.
Wolfblood
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Does anyone have a link where the CDC admits that the executive branch pressured them to change their testing protocols?

I haven't seen that admission yet. That would be interesting if true.

I do find it strange that the biggest line of attack against Trump is that he hasn't listened to the experts, but today the experts come out with new testing protocols and already three governors have dismissed them outright. I have a feeling that more governors will join Cuomo, Newsome and Cooper in defying the experts opinions at the CDC.

Will the media and other democrats condemn these governors and any others who decide to defy the experts at the CDC? I guess we'll see.

Today I have been trying to remember back to the press conference at the White House when Trump and the task force put forth the phased reopening plan. I'm probably wrong, but I seem to remember Dr Birx putting forth a testing plan more in line with a contact tracing plan for cases that flared up in communities and future hotspots instead of the blanket testing plan that has been used. Does anyone else remember a plan of attacking hotspots or was it always test as many random people across the country as we can. I was just curious and thought I would ask our experts what they remember.
Daviewolf83
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A couple of updates I thought people might find interesting:

1. If you are not familiar with the weekly updates provided by Dr. Ohl of Wake Forest Baptist Health, I highly recommend you watch his updates.You can find them on Youtube, but the the most recent ones seem to only be on Facebook. I have provided a link below to his update last week. Dr. Ohl is an expert in infectious disease. I find his updates to be very understandable and he delivers them in a calm and reassuring way.

One thing I found interesting in the most recent update is the importance (or lack of importance) in the use of temperature checks to screen people for possible Covid-19 infection. Bottom line - early on they believed temperature checks could be an effective method for screening for Covid-19, but now most people, including Dr. Ohl do not believe it provides any help.

https://www.facebook.com/wakehealth/videos/350570519439579

2. Some very encouraging news in the testing arena. On the heels of the FDA's approval of the Yale-developed saliva test, a new antigen test was given authorization by the FDA today. This new test has the potential to greatly increase the amount of testing that can be conducted, with quick turn around, and at a very affordable price. This could really help as schools and business try to reopen, by allowing them to either quickly screen students and employees or even allowing them to screen themselves daily. Results are obtained in about 15 minutes. You can read more about it here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/08/26/us-approves-abbott-labs-5-mass-scale-covid-19-test/#2f01d8582937
Steve Williams
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Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.
GoPack2008
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Steve Williams said:

Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.


How much do you think people are getting to stay home?
Steve Williams
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GoPack2008 said:

Steve Williams said:

Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.


How much do you think people are getting to stay home?
It was quite a bit when the state and feds were both giving it out. In the past, workers had to show they were trying to get a job in order to get unemployment. That has been waived and you can simply sit at home and cash your checks.
statefan91
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Steve Williams said:

Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.


Most? Dude what the ****? Do you know how many families are crippled right now from trying to manage multiple children in virtual school and work? Do you think those jobs you're seeing allow for remote work so they can stay home with their kids during this pandemic? Even if you don't agree with the level of restrictions in place, it's clear that we are in a situation where children won't be let back in schools in a widespread fashion any time soon.

Do you think most people want to worry about whether congress will decide they're going to extend benefits so they can make their rent or mortgage payment? Maybe you don't have small kids at home that you need to figure something out for but maybe try to have some semblance of empathy for families that are on the verge of poverty.

wilmwolf
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.
GoPack2008
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Steve Williams said:

GoPack2008 said:

Steve Williams said:

Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.


How much do you think people are getting to stay home?
It was quite a bit when the state and feds were both giving it out. In the past, workers had to show they were trying to get a job in order to get unemployment. That has been waived and you can simply sit at home and cash your checks.


But like, how much? Like how much per week do you think people were getting?
wilmwolf
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If you know the number, just ****ing post it and stop being a dick and trying to get Steve in a "GOTCHA" moment. For a period of time at least, it was up to $350 from NC +$600 federal pandemic benefit.

https://des.nc.gov/need-help/covid-19-information/covid-19-information-individuals/federal-pandemic-unemployment
packgrad
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My sister in NYC, that works part time in a doctors office, fell into the category of making more not to work when their office was shut down.

My mother also works in HR for a company that uses seasonal workers. Her job has been made more difficult because many of their regular workers have decided to remain home as they make more money that way.
wilmwolf
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A 40 hour week working a minimum wage job comes out to $290 before taxes. It is very clear that some people could be making more money not working than working. If given the choice between making $290 a week playing xbox or $290 a week working the fry cooker, I would probably stay home too. Obviously some people have no choice but to stay home due to kid situations, but there are undoubtedly people who don't have that consideration who are simply choosing not to work.
GoPack2008
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wilmwolf80 said:

If you know the number, just ****ing post it and stop being a dick and trying to get Steve in a "GOTCHA" moment. For a period of time at least, it was up to $350 from NC +$600 federal pandemic benefit.

https://des.nc.gov/need-help/covid-19-information/covid-19-information-individuals/federal-pandemic-unemployment



Calm down, I wasn't trying to be a dick. I was just wondering what Steve was anchored to, and he doesn't need you defending him. I didn't know asking questions was so controversial.

I think most people, long term, prefer to work. Right now, it makes sense to incentivize people to stay home to help reduce exposure and spread of the virus. That doesn't have to be a long term solution.

But the idea that there's "a whole class of people" out there who don't want to work is pretty weird to me. Part of the reason the numbers might even work out to stay home is that a lot of jobs pay laughably little.

Ultimately this veers into ideology around government benefits so probably there isn't going to be much constructive discussion here.
GoPack2008
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wilmwolf80 said:

A 40 hour week working a minimum wage job comes out to $290 before taxes. It is very clear that some people could be making more money not working than working. If given the choice between making $290 a week playing xbox or $290 a week working the fry cooker, I would probably stay home too. Obviously some people have no choice but to stay home due to kid situations, but there are undoubtedly people who don't have that consideration who are simply choosing not to work.


Yes exactly, you made my point. $290/week after taxes is so little money that it boggles the mind.

The government is not giving out huge sums of money. It's just that a lot of jobs pay laughable wages.

We see the same situation and assess it differentlyyou see the problem as being the government giving out money, I see a job market Thats really ****ty for a lot of people.
wilmwolf
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Nothing you've posted invalidates what he said. If you want to turn it into a larger discussion about wage disparity, make a thread.
Daviewolf83
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The impact to the labor market for having schools closed was one of several reasons Sweden decided to not close schools. Early on, they assessed the risk to young people and decided the risk to students attending in-person classes did not outweigh the impact to the labor market of having children not attend school.

As the US continues to make policy decisions regarding the Coronavirus, they have to take into account the full costs and impacts to keeping different businesses and activities shutdown or operating in remote fashion. Yes, you have to consider health impacts to individuals, but you also have to consider economic and business impacts that can also have a direct impact on people's health and mental well-being. It is a cost/benefit or risk/reward analysis and this must be something the people in charge continually review and adjust as we move through the course of this virus.

For example, in NC and other states, many day cares have remained open during the pandemic. This was done to provide childcare for those essential workers who needed to have care for their children so they could work. Based on reports I have seen and the most recent weekly update by Dr. Christopher Ohl I posted a link to last night, it seems to have been a rather good decision for all involved.
DrummerboyWolf
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GoPack2008 said:

Steve Williams said:

GoPack2008 said:

Steve Williams said:

Driving around Wake Forest and Myrtle Beach a couple of weeks ago, me and my wife were blown away by how many "now hiring" signs we saw. They're literally everywhere. And then I think I read tonight where Roy is ready to give people more free money in the near future. I'm guessing there's literally an entire class of people that are hoping we stay stay masked-up and locked-down forever. Most are sitting at home getting more money in the mail than they ever got working a real job.


How much do you think people are getting to stay home?
It was quite a bit when the state and feds were both giving it out. In the past, workers had to show they were trying to get a job in order to get unemployment. That has been waived and you can simply sit at home and cash your checks.


But like, how much? Like how much per week do you think people were getting?
Many people were getting their regular unemployment from the state which might have been 3-4 hundred dollars, then they were getting $600 from the Federal Government. So I know two family members on my wife's side were getting a thousand bucks a week to not work. So if you weren't making that much, why would you go back to work?

And let me add, unemployment is usually not your full pay. People can make money in this country when it's open. Some people don't need as much to live a good life. Every situation is different and to say wages are too low is myopic.
Being an N. C. State Fan Builds Great Character
wilmwolf
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In coronavirus news, New Hanover RMC is modifying their visitor policy and now allowing most patients to designate one visitor who can visit them.

https://www.wect.com/2020/08/24/nhrmc-modifies-visiting-restrictions/
packgrad
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Speaking of CV ramifications and gyms, my brother lives in Wilmington and was able to work out at Planet Fitness. Durham hasn't reopened the one my wife goes to. Wonder if the franchisee down there said damn the man.
Daviewolf83
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packgrad said:

Speaking of CV ramifications and gyms, my brother lives in Wilmington and was able to work out at Planet Fitness. Durham hasn't reopened the one my wife goes to. Wonder if the franchisee down there said damn the man.
The one in Wilmington is likely applying the loophole in the Governor's order and the one in Durham decided opening under the loophole was not worth the negative press and attention it might draw from Durham county.
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