RunsWithWolves26 said:
I see on worldometers that new cases today are over 37,000. I am assuming that is due to more testing or antibody testing? Is that a correct assumption or am I missing something with these numbers?
WolfQuacker said:
I've sort of been keeping up with this thread... but is anyone reporting on % of positive tests by geographic region/state/country/etc?
Wayland said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
I see on worldometers that new cases today are over 37,000. I am assuming that is due to more testing or antibody testing? Is that a correct assumption or am I missing something with these numbers?
A lot of states have really ramped up testing. I feel like I remember Murphy in NJ making a comment to that effect in his presser today.
I feel some antibody tests were added to totals somewhere in Europe, but I hadn't heard of a US state doing that.
I do not believe NC is doing anti-body testing yet. The anti-body testing is problematic at the moment and most, if not all of the studies are being conducted by universities. I to not believe there is an FDA approved test available yet, which is why universities are involved. They are all trying to validate tests through trials. If they do test people and find them to be positive for the anti-body, they could add them, but they should maintain a separate list from the one tracking people with the active virus. The biggest concern with the anti-body testing is that many of the tests have a high false-positive rate, which is why experienced testers need to be involved - especially the anti-body tests coming out of China.Steve Williams said:
This most likely is a dumb question but if someone tests positive on the antibody test (meaning they've had it at some point in the past) are they added to the total number of coronavirus cases?
The Santa Clara test run by a Stanford professor has some rather serious issues with its methodology, so I am nt ready to accept its results. Basically, some serious questions have been raised with regards to sample bias due to the recruitment methodologies of the participants.wilmwolf80 said:
There are documented issues with false positives and negatives in the regular tests as well, but all of those numbers are treated as gospel. The antibody testing numbers are remarkably similar, in vastly different locations. Also I'm pretty sure the latest study posted in this thread was adjusted to account for false positives, and still shows a rate of infection much higher than currently reported. I don't think that what they are seeing can be discounted a easily as people seem to want to.
Correct. This is a trial being paid for by the state of NC and it was authorized by the Republicans in the legislator. out of a discretionary fund they control. The total study will take 1 year and cost $100,000. The Republicans reportedly grew tired of waiting on the governor and his staff to begin anti-body testing, so they were able to authorize the expenditure and worked with Wake Forest to implement the limited (1,000 participants) test.PackMom said:
They are doing trials of antibody tests at Wake Forest as well as one through the NIH. You can sign up to participate if you want.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection#qa-section
PackMom said:
They are doing trials of antibody tests at Wake Forest as well as one through the NIH. You can sign up to participate if you want.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection#qa-section
Under normal circumstances, it can take years to isolate the exact anti-bodies produced by exposure to the virus. Additionally, we do not know the level of anti-bodies required to provide immunity. Of course, progress on finding an anti-body test for the Coronavirus is proceeding at much higher rates than in the past, so there is hope a test can be found sooner rather than years.PackMom said:
How long is it likely to be before they can verify that a given antibody test is filtering adequately for this particular virus, as opposed to showing antibodies from various other coronaviruses?
4/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)Wayland said:4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185
124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273
388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.
DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584
132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths
444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.
Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.
Thanks for posting. This is a really good video and everyone needs to watch it. It is not the message the news media and the government want you to know. One key point they make - Sheltering in place lowers the effectiveness of your immune system. Our immune systems were built to experience bacteria and virus' and to develop IgM and IgG anti-bodies to deal disease. Basically, throughout our lives, our immune systems are trained to react to bacteria and virus' - this is how our bodies work. By locking us up and decreasing our exposure to virus' by wearing masks and washing our hands constantly, we are weakening our immune systems.Everpack said:
Long video of about an hour. Please watch if you have time.
I am working on some estimation of a CFR by age for NC that is closer to reality, based on anti-body testing out of Miami and NY. In the meantime, I did calculate the chances of survival by age using NC's current data. Since they do not provide the raw numbers of people for % of positive cases by age and the number of people for % of deaths by age, I had to use the percentages to calculate these numbers.Wayland said:
"State officials revised the number of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina on Sunday morning to account for a reporting error involving Vidant Health.
An email announcement from the state's Department of Health and Human Services said every test received from Vidant Health was counted as positive for Saturday's update. That inflated the total number of cases by 81."
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242301941.html
That changes yesterday's numbers from:
571 positive cases over 4681 new tests. 12.2% positive rate.
to
490 positive cases over 4681 new tests. 10.5% positive rate.
So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
4/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)Wayland said:4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185
124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273
388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.
DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584
132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths
444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.
Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.
NC Cases*
8542 (subtracted 81 reporting error)
NC Deaths**
289
Currently Hospitalized
456
Completed Tests
105,265
148 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+17 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)
106 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
183 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)
80 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7) <- Note a number of prisons added
WRAL is at 299 (+2) and NandO is at 304 deaths
I 100% agree with you -- lots of decisions out of fear.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
Yeah, you would have to think so. I mean, some of those towns would just go under I'd expect. Seems like maybe the MT governor is just trying to be overly proactive in his statements....but think the businesses there would run him out before shutting down the whole summer (and Ph3 could be well into next year even)Everpack said:Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
Those states are so dependent on summer tourism that there is no way they don't lift those restrictions sooner than later.
To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
Steve Williams said:To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
I think what hurt parks was perception, and videos of "bad behavior". Stories of parking lots overflowing and paths packed. Video in Charlotte of a volleyball game going on, etc.Steve Williams said:To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
It is now about control and how much the government can get away with in the future. I keep saying the government had one shot to shut things down and this was it. We did not know how bad the virus would be, how it would spread, how many people would be infected, how it would impact our health systems, and the percentage of people by age that would die. We saw horror stories out of Europe, particularly Italy and Spain and based on these reports, we took drastic actions to slow the spread and prevent our hospitals from being overrun. I should point out that a couple of years ago, Italy's healthcare system was similarly overrun by the flu, so apparently it does not take much for it to be overrun.Packchem91 said:I think what hurt parks was perception, and videos of "bad behavior". Stories of parking lots overflowing and paths packed. Video in Charlotte of a volleyball game going on, etc.Steve Williams said:To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
Those things may not be bad at all....but they occurred when we were at the peak of hysteria, and were hyped very negatively by our friends in the media.
Golf courses were always lower profile. And they quickly were smart to adopt and promote safety features such as dedicated carts, using noodle parts for putting so you didn't have to touch anything, etc.
Now boat ramps, state forests, etc....that's really impossible to explain. Other than fear mongering.
These are great points, and very much agree -- particularly about the divide growing, and that people are very soon going to just start flaunting those demands.Daviewolf83 said:It is now about control and how much the government can get away with in the future. I keep saying the government had one shot to shut things down and this was it. We did not know how bad the virus would be, how it would spread, how many people would be infected, how it would impact our health systems, and the percentage of people by age that would die. We saw horror stories out of Europe, particularly Italy and Spain and based on these reports, we took drastic actions to slow the spread and prevent our hospitals from being overrun. I should point out that a couple of years ago, Italy's healthcare system was similarly overrun by the flu, so apparently it does not take much for it to be overrun.Packchem91 said:I think what hurt parks was perception, and videos of "bad behavior". Stories of parking lots overflowing and paths packed. Video in Charlotte of a volleyball game going on, etc.Steve Williams said:To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
Those things may not be bad at all....but they occurred when we were at the peak of hysteria, and were hyped very negatively by our friends in the media.
Golf courses were always lower profile. And they quickly were smart to adopt and promote safety features such as dedicated carts, using noodle parts for putting so you didn't have to touch anything, etc.
Now boat ramps, state forests, etc....that's really impossible to explain. Other than fear mongering.
We now have better stats and information on the virus and how it spreads and how many people could die. We do not have good information on the number of cases, but with the anti-virus testing that will come in the future, we will get a better idea. Once we open up, we will not shutdown to this extent again. We will have to move to a policy of only quarantining the sick and letting people who are not sick and have no health issues to go about their normal life.One thing the lock-downs have taught us it this - even with a lock-down we will still cases and we will have deaths. We have a much better idea of how will get sick and how many will die.
We are now seeing people clearly splitting into two camps, centered around political parties. Those people who align with Democrats tend to support continuing lock-downs and restrictions and attacking anyone who suggests another policy. I believe this is due to a mindset that the government should have more control over our lives and the government should decide what is safe. Republicans and Libertarians tend to be for less government control and more freedom to chose to do what you want, even it is risky. As we move forward, I expect this division to continue to grow. At some point in the near future, people are going to stop listening to the government and do what they want to do.
We are going to see more and more people doing what they want and ignoring the lock-down. As I have been saying, the government has until mid-May to get testing in place. After this, people are going to start coming out in mass. Businesses are going to start opening up and defying the governor. It the government tries to take legal action, it will go to court and I predict the government will lose. In some areas of the state that have seen limited impact from the virus, they can and should open up their economies now.
Personally, I will only wear a mask if it is required by my employer or a business I need to enter. If it is not required by either, I will not wear one - even if it is required by the government. I know enough now about the virus to assume my own risk. Once restaurants open, I will have no issue or concern about eating out. I will actually not be afraid to attend sporting events. I have looked at the data and I am willing to accept the risk.
Based on what I have read recently, avoiding virus' and bacteria is not healthy. Our immune system works best when we are exposed to virus and bacteria. In some cases, there is bacteria that our body needs to fight bad bacteria. We are constantly exposed to virus and bacteria and our body's immune system needs this exposure to develop natural defenses. Constantly wearing a mask and washing hands only serves to weaken our immune systems over the long-term. I saw a doctor predict that when we stop wearing masks and washing hands there will be an increase in illness. This is why I do not plan to wear a mask and plan to expose my body to the normal bacteria my body's immune system needs to function properly.
We are at a point now where we have to stop quarantining healthy people. If you are sick or if you are randomly tested and found to have the virus, you have to be quarantined. We will need to contact trace all those people who you contacted and if they are found to be sick, they should quarantine. For everyone else, go out and live life. If you are in a nursing home or other congregate facility, you should stay on lock-down. If you have a health condition that puts you at risk, you should continue to be careful - wear a mask, wash your hands, and avoid crowds.
Daviewolf83 said:It is now about control and how much the government can get away with in the future. I keep saying the government had one shot to shut things down and this was it. We did not know how bad the virus would be, how it would spread, how many people would be infected, how it would impact our health systems, and the percentage of people by age that would die. We saw horror stories out of Europe, particularly Italy and Spain and based on these reports, we took drastic actions to slow the spread and prevent our hospitals from being overrun. I should point out that a couple of years ago, Italy's healthcare system was similarly overrun by the flu, so apparently it does not take much for it to be overrun.Packchem91 said:I think what hurt parks was perception, and videos of "bad behavior". Stories of parking lots overflowing and paths packed. Video in Charlotte of a volleyball game going on, etc.Steve Williams said:To take this a step further. I don't know of any golf courses that closed but parks were shut down. Can't figure the logic of that.Daviewolf83 said:I am just happy they are going to open in the state of NC. This should reopen the Blue Ridge Parkway where it has been closed and reopen some of the fly fishing spots that I have not been able to visit, since the Federal lands were locked down. Additionally, Governor Cooper has no jurisdiction/control of these areas, so the President can open them without having to have their agreement.Packchem91 said:So one of the things that goes with this (I assume this is the part about working with governors) is that many states where these parks exist have 14-day self quarantines.packgrad said:
National parks should be opening up.
In particular...Yellowstone --- Montana and Wyoming both still have these rules (ID may as well). Montana's governor has said he will not remove it until they are at Phase 3.
So who's going to fly to Billings or stay in West Yellowstone or Gardiner only to have to quarantine when there to see YNP?
I'm sure the $$ pressures will pile up on those governors, as they look at destroying what has to be one of the larger, if seasonal, sources of income for the state -- tourism around YNP and other parks there.
This is a positive move. It has made no logical sense to keep the Federal (and State parks for that matter) to be locked down, while you allow people to go to grocery stores and large box stores. Based on the CFR's I just posted, if you are under the age of 50,your risk of death is extremely small (likely as low as the flu).
Those things may not be bad at all....but they occurred when we were at the peak of hysteria, and were hyped very negatively by our friends in the media.
Golf courses were always lower profile. And they quickly were smart to adopt and promote safety features such as dedicated carts, using noodle parts for putting so you didn't have to touch anything, etc.
Now boat ramps, state forests, etc....that's really impossible to explain. Other than fear mongering.
We now have better stats and information on the virus and how it spreads and how many people could die. We do not have good information on the number of cases, but with the anti-virus testing that will come in the future, we will get a better idea. Once we open up, we will not shutdown to this extent again. We will have to move to a policy of only quarantining the sick and letting people who are not sick and have no health issues to go about their normal life.One thing the lock-downs have taught us it this - even with a lock-down we will still cases and we will have deaths. We have a much better idea of how will get sick and how many will die.
We are now seeing people clearly splitting into two camps, centered around political parties. Those people who align with Democrats tend to support continuing lock-downs and restrictions and attacking anyone who suggests another policy. I believe this is due to a mindset that the government should have more control over our lives and the government should decide what is safe. Republicans and Libertarians tend to be for less government control and more freedom to chose to do what you want, even it is risky. As we move forward, I expect this division to continue to grow. At some point in the near future, people are going to stop listening to the government and do what they want to do.
We are going to see more and more people doing what they want and ignoring the lock-down. As I have been saying, the government has until mid-May to get testing in place. After this, people are going to start coming out in mass. Businesses are going to start opening up and defying the governor. It the government tries to take legal action, it will go to court and I predict the government will lose. In some areas of the state that have seen limited impact from the virus, they can and should open up their economies now.
Personally, I will only wear a mask if it is required by my employer or a business I need to enter. If it is not required by either, I will not wear one - even if it is required by the government. I know enough now about the virus to assume my own risk. Once restaurants open, I will have no issue or concern about eating out. I will actually not be afraid to attend sporting events. I have looked at the data and I am willing to accept the risk.
Based on what I have read recently, avoiding virus' and bacteria is not healthy. Our immune system works best when we are exposed to virus and bacteria. In some cases, there is bacteria that our body needs to fight bad bacteria. We are constantly exposed to virus and bacteria and our body's immune system needs this exposure to develop natural defenses. Constantly wearing a mask and washing hands only serves to weaken our immune systems over the long-term. I saw a doctor predict that when we stop wearing masks and washing hands there will be an increase in illness. This is why I do not plan to wear a mask and plan to expose my body to the normal bacteria my body's immune system needs to function properly.
We are at a point now where we have to stop quarantining healthy people. If you are sick or if you are randomly tested and found to have the virus, you have to be quarantined. We will need to contact trace all those people who you contacted and if they are found to be sick, they should quarantine. For everyone else, go out and live life. If you are in a nursing home or other congregate facility, you should stay on lock-down. If you have a health condition that puts you at risk, you should continue to be careful - wear a mask, wash your hands, and avoid crowds.
