Funny you say that -- wonder whatever happened with all those kids in Tampa during spring break that looked the fool at the time, and were promoted as the beginning of the end of civilization. How many cases did they trigger, I wonder?PossumJenkins said:
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
Coronavirus
2,600,786 Views |
20305 Replies |
Last: 2 days ago by Werewolf
Red&White said:The virus is flat-lining right now. It's not growing nor is it diminishing... been this way for 3 weeks... that is WITH all the measures... so imagine where it would be WITHOUT the stay at home measures... back to exponential growth. Then imagine what happens to an economy that has lost .1% of the population... or maybe even 1%. We don't know. Nobody does, so all you guys with your gung ho surety are embarrassing yourselves... the fact is we don't have a ****ing clue b/c we haven't been through something like this in any of our lifetimes. It's scary, but the economy is ****ed no matter how it gets sliced here, so we might as well accept it, put our newfound free time to use, stop complaining, plant a ****in garden, and get ready for some tough ****, cuz it's here.ncsualum05 said:Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
The only places where the virus isn't rapidly declining are a few extremely large, high density cities and nursing homes around the country. Stop reading headlines and look at the data that the government and media refuses to present. 330,000,000 Americans are spread out over 3,797,000 square miles. We can't let 50 square miles around NYC dictate policy for the other 95% of the country. I don't believe anyone here is a proponent of just going back to life as we knew it tomorrow, but there are logical and practical options to get us headed back in that direction sooner than later for a lot of Americans.
The times they posted was the half-life of the virus. Not elimination.Packchem91 said:Funny you say that -- wonder whatever happened with all those kids in Tampa during spring break that looked the fool at the time, and were promoted as the beginning of the end of civilization. How many cases did they trigger, I wonder?PossumJenkins said:
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,263
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
This was correct. The good news is it is apparent that sunlight and heat/humidity do a good job of killing the virus. It is not a cure and it is not a treatment to ridding yourself of the virus. It is a natural mechanism that in many cases will significantly reduce the amount of time the virus remains viable on surfaces. All along, there has been an expectation the virus would be less viable in the warmer Summer and early Spring months (like the influenza virus) and the study goes a long way in demonstrating this possibility.gtman49 said:The times they posted was the half-life of the virus. Not elimination.Packchem91 said:Funny you say that -- wonder whatever happened with all those kids in Tampa during spring break that looked the fool at the time, and were promoted as the beginning of the end of civilization. How many cases did they trigger, I wonder?PossumJenkins said:
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
One thing the researcher said that I found interesting (not sure it is that helpful) is that the virus is more viable on smooth surfaces (like table tops and door knobs) than on porous surfaces (such as your hand).
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,263
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
I had not looked at NY in several days, so I pulled up their Daily New Cases and Daily Death plots through yesterday. As everyone knows, NYC has been the most significant city impacted by the virus and has contributed to almost 30% of the cases and deaths in the US. So, the following graphs are very good news with regards to this hard hit area and it does show deaths and cases are declining in a major way. It is just matter of time until all regions begin to see similar results (if they have not done so already).Everpack said:Red&White said:The virus is flat-lining right now. It's not growing nor is it diminishing... been this way for 3 weeks... that is WITH all the measures... so imagine where it would be WITHOUT the stay at home measures... back to exponential growth. Then imagine what happens to an economy that has lost .1% of the population... or maybe even 1%. We don't know. Nobody does, so all you guys with your gung ho surety are embarrassing yourselves... the fact is we don't have a ****ing clue b/c we haven't been through something like this in any of our lifetimes. It's scary, but the economy is ****ed no matter how it gets sliced here, so we might as well accept it, put our newfound free time to use, stop complaining, plant a ****in garden, and get ready for some tough ****, cuz it's here.ncsualum05 said:Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
The only places where the virus isn't rapidly declining are a few extremely large, high density cities and nursing homes around the country. Stop reading headlines and look at the data that the government and media refuses to present. 330,000,000 Americans are spread out over 3,797,000 square miles. We can't let 50 square miles around NYC dictate policy for the other 95% of the country. I don't believe anyone here is a proponent of just going back to life as we knew it tomorrow, but there are logical and practical options to get us headed back in that direction sooner than later for a lot of Americans.
New Daily Cases:
New Daily Deaths (the spike was a one day adjustment NYC did in adding probable cases):
Red&White said:The virus is flat-lining right now. It's not growing nor is it diminishing... been this way for 3 weeks... that is WITH all the measures... so imagine where it would be WITHOUT the stay at home measures... back to exponential growth. Then imagine what happens to an economy that has lost .1% of the population... or maybe even 1%. We don't know. Nobody does, so all you guys with your gung ho surety are embarrassing yourselves... the fact is we don't have a ****ing clue b/c we haven't been through something like this in any of our lifetimes. It's scary, but the economy is ****ed no matter how it gets sliced here, so we might as well accept it, put our newfound free time to use, stop complaining, plant a ****in garden, and get ready for some tough ****, cuz it's here.ncsualum05 said:Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
NC has NEVER had exponential growth.
NY does a good job with their daily graphs and their trends have all been trending down in a good way. NJ is in a rough spot as is MA right now.
But both those state's daily numbers include a good bit of reporting lag on deaths, so you sometimes need to look past the daily report and see when the deaths actually occurred.
Some of the medium size European countries are great at accurately backdating their death and providing details and graphs. So if you were just to look at Worldometer or something, you would really fail to see the true trend data which is more important than clearing a backlog for understanding where they are. Which is why it is so annoying to see headlines jump on some of the data without providing any context. I wish NC was truly transparent on day of death, and not just day reported.
Both NJ and MA have been absolutely SHREDDED in congregate facilities. The nursing home deaths in those states are otherworldly.
Interesting PA actually walked back a couple hundred deaths that were overreported as corona.
But both those state's daily numbers include a good bit of reporting lag on deaths, so you sometimes need to look past the daily report and see when the deaths actually occurred.
Some of the medium size European countries are great at accurately backdating their death and providing details and graphs. So if you were just to look at Worldometer or something, you would really fail to see the true trend data which is more important than clearing a backlog for understanding where they are. Which is why it is so annoying to see headlines jump on some of the data without providing any context. I wish NC was truly transparent on day of death, and not just day reported.
Both NJ and MA have been absolutely SHREDDED in congregate facilities. The nursing home deaths in those states are otherworldly.
Interesting PA actually walked back a couple hundred deaths that were overreported as corona.
Daviewolf83 said:This was correct. The good news is it is apparent that sunlight and heat/humidity do a good job of killing the virus. It is not a cure and it is not a treatment to ridding yourself of the virus. It is a natural mechanism that in many cases will significantly reduce the amount of time the virus remains viable on surfaces. All along, there has been an expectation the virus would be less viable in the warmer Summer and early Spring months (like the influenza virus) and the study goes a long way in demonstrating this possibility.gtman49 said:The times they posted was the half-life of the virus. Not elimination.Packchem91 said:Funny you say that -- wonder whatever happened with all those kids in Tampa during spring break that looked the fool at the time, and were promoted as the beginning of the end of civilization. How many cases did they trigger, I wonder?PossumJenkins said:
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
One thing the researcher said that I found interesting (not sure it is that helpful) is that the virus is more viable on smooth surfaces (like table tops and door knobs) than on porous surfaces (such as your hand).
I certainly meant kill the virus "on surfaces"...and thereby was wondering if that led to reduced amounts of the virus itself in Florida leading to less opportunity to come in contact with it. Never dreamed someone would suggest light inside the body as a cure or treatment.
So evidently New York is now finding the virus is far more widespread than previously thought.....and as some of us have been suspecting.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/new-york-finds-virus-marker-in-13-9-suggesting-wide-spread?fbclid=IwAR2jTJ689ond6GYYy0LEJQYdMHRpouR-wk05YdxOJfSukjZBX4zZaJDuNVE
New York Finds Virus Marker in 13.9%, Suggesting Wide Spread
"A New York study seeking to measure the spread of the new coronavirus found that 13.9% of 3,000 people tested across the state had signs of the virus, one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date.
That implies that about 2.7 million residents may have had Covid-19, Governor Andrew Cuomo said. That's about 10 times more than the official count based on the state's testing, which covered mostly very sick patients."
"It also means that the fatality rate is likely lower than implied by merely examining confirmed cases and deaths. If 2.7 million people have been infected, that would put the fatality rate at about 0.5%, based on the death count of 15,500 the state used to make its calculation."
"The weighted results showed more than 1-in-5 New Yorkers testing positive, as well as 16.7% of those in Long Island and 11.7% of those in Westchester and Rockland counties. The estimates showed 3.6% testing positive in the rest of the state."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/new-york-finds-virus-marker-in-13-9-suggesting-wide-spread?fbclid=IwAR2jTJ689ond6GYYy0LEJQYdMHRpouR-wk05YdxOJfSukjZBX4zZaJDuNVE
New York Finds Virus Marker in 13.9%, Suggesting Wide Spread
"A New York study seeking to measure the spread of the new coronavirus found that 13.9% of 3,000 people tested across the state had signs of the virus, one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date.
That implies that about 2.7 million residents may have had Covid-19, Governor Andrew Cuomo said. That's about 10 times more than the official count based on the state's testing, which covered mostly very sick patients."
"It also means that the fatality rate is likely lower than implied by merely examining confirmed cases and deaths. If 2.7 million people have been infected, that would put the fatality rate at about 0.5%, based on the death count of 15,500 the state used to make its calculation."
"The weighted results showed more than 1-in-5 New Yorkers testing positive, as well as 16.7% of those in Long Island and 11.7% of those in Westchester and Rockland counties. The estimates showed 3.6% testing positive in the rest of the state."
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,263
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
That was pretty funny. The look on Dr. Birx's face was priceless.PossumJenkins said:Daviewolf83 said:This was correct. The good news is it is apparent that sunlight and heat/humidity do a good job of killing the virus. It is not a cure and it is not a treatment to ridding yourself of the virus. It is a natural mechanism that in many cases will significantly reduce the amount of time the virus remains viable on surfaces. All along, there has been an expectation the virus would be less viable in the warmer Summer and early Spring months (like the influenza virus) and the study goes a long way in demonstrating this possibility.gtman49 said:The times they posted was the half-life of the virus. Not elimination.Packchem91 said:Funny you say that -- wonder whatever happened with all those kids in Tampa during spring break that looked the fool at the time, and were promoted as the beginning of the end of civilization. How many cases did they trigger, I wonder?PossumJenkins said:
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
One thing the researcher said that I found interesting (not sure it is that helpful) is that the virus is more viable on smooth surfaces (like table tops and door knobs) than on porous surfaces (such as your hand).
I certainly meant kill the virus "on surfaces"...and thereby was wondering if that led to reduced amounts of the virus itself in Florida leading to less opportunity to come in contact with it. Never dreamed someone would suggest light inside the body as a cure or treatment.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,263
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Our one of my pet peeves the news media (WRAL in particular) repeats daily - "NC has 7,608 cases of the Coronavirus." The proper words would be - "NC has recorded a total of 7,608 cases, since testing began." Based on my rough estimates, NC currently has approximately 3,900 active cases of the Coronavirus. I know they like to report it the way I stated, since it sounds more alarming, but if they want to report facts, they have to change the words they use.Wayland said:
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
Henry Hinton on his show in Greenville NC this morning said that he was told by a source in the hospital that the entire Vidant hospital system only has 41 cases as of yesterday. To put that in perspective Vidant serves 1.4 million people in 29 eastern NC counties.Daviewolf83 said:Our one of my pet peeves the news media (WRAL in particular) repeats daily - "NC has 7,608 cases of the Coronavirus." The proper words would be - "NC has recorded a total of 7,608 cases, since testing began." Based on my rough estimates, NC currently has approximately 3,900 active cases of the Coronavirus. I know they like to report it the way I stated, since it sounds more alarming, but if they want to report facts, they have to change the words they use.Wayland said:
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
But WRAL is happy to state for hospitalizations count "although many hospitals don't report their cases."Daviewolf83 said:Our one of my pet peeves the news media (WRAL in particular) repeats daily - "NC has 7,608 cases of the Coronavirus." The proper words would be - "NC has recorded a total of 7,608 cases, since testing began." Based on my rough estimates, NC currently has approximately 3,900 active cases of the Coronavirus. I know they like to report it the way I stated, since it sounds more alarming, but if they want to report facts, they have to change the words they use.Wayland said:
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
And showing that ever increasing positive case graph that will never actually come down because we don't report resolved cases. I don't even think at this point we should be addressing the overall positive cases.
They also need to do a better job providing context to case and death rates as to not provide general panic when there is a spike in cases/deaths due to a specific congregate facility. Context needs to be provided.
I assume with regards to the number of positive cases that duplicates don't count. I would think that we would be smart enough to exclude, but if someone has a second test to try and test if the virus is resolved and that comes back positive, is it recorded as a new test? I don't know how or who records positive tests and if they are directly coded to individuals in the count.
cowboypack02 said:Henry Hinton on his show in Greenville NC this morning said that he was told by a source in the hospital that the entire Vidant hospital system only has 41 cases as of yesterday. To put that in perspective Vidant serves 1.4 million people in 29 eastern NC counties.Daviewolf83 said:Our one of my pet peeves the news media (WRAL in particular) repeats daily - "NC has 7,608 cases of the Coronavirus." The proper words would be - "NC has recorded a total of 7,608 cases, since testing began." Based on my rough estimates, NC currently has approximately 3,900 active cases of the Coronavirus. I know they like to report it the way I stated, since it sounds more alarming, but if they want to report facts, they have to change the words they use.Wayland said:
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
Not surprising. I heard that Rex Hospital in Raleigh had 6 people in their COVID unit the other day, I'll assume that that means their ICU cases.
Live now task force audio:
First thirty minutes just recap of yesterday's briefing basically. Nothing new.
Nothing that interesting in the meeting that wasn't already known.
Except, NC is now at 10% of Nursing Homes in the state now have an outbreak.
Leading the race:
Mecklenburg County with 10 (5 Nursing, 5 Residential)
Cabarrus County with 5 (1 Nursing, 2 Residential, 2 Other)
Durham with 4 (3 Nursing, 1 Correctional)
Guilford with 4 (2 Nursing, 1 Residential, 1 Other)
Many more with 3.
First thirty minutes just recap of yesterday's briefing basically. Nothing new.
Nothing that interesting in the meeting that wasn't already known.
Except, NC is now at 10% of Nursing Homes in the state now have an outbreak.
Leading the race:
Mecklenburg County with 10 (5 Nursing, 5 Residential)
Cabarrus County with 5 (1 Nursing, 2 Residential, 2 Other)
Durham with 4 (3 Nursing, 1 Correctional)
Guilford with 4 (2 Nursing, 1 Residential, 1 Other)
Many more with 3.
4/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)Wayland said:4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:40am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185
124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273
388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.
DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
NC Cases*
8052
NC Deaths**
269
Currently Hospitalized
477
Completed Tests
100,584
132 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+11 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
103 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
166 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
73 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 279 (+2) and NandO is at 281 deaths
444 positive cases over 4399 new tests. 10% positive rate.
Positive test rate is above average today. That sucks big time, would like to know if this is largely indicative of a congregate outbreak(s). I guess a side benefit is, if we can get the positive rate to spike, we can show improvement.
I injected some Clorox this morning and sprayed my mouth and ears with Lysol as I stood in Peroxide; I feel better. Oh, I was in the Sun too.
Cuomo is in full spread fear mode right now. His slide showing an exponential off the chart explosion of cases in July if they ease up now was almost comical. NY likely hit a similar curve as Italy, Spain, UK, where the virus basically exhausted itself due to mass spread.
I think there are certainly a lot of places that could have later spikes worse than they have now. I think NYC saw the virus' natural worst trend given their variables. Again, not saying they won't have a future 'bump' in cases, but assuming antibodies provide immunity, I can't see how it would be feasible to have a second worse curve for NYC.
I think there are certainly a lot of places that could have later spikes worse than they have now. I think NYC saw the virus' natural worst trend given their variables. Again, not saying they won't have a future 'bump' in cases, but assuming antibodies provide immunity, I can't see how it would be feasible to have a second worse curve for NYC.
Well, it's really difficult to have any sympathy for Fredo's brother. He has implemented orders that compel the nursing homes in NY to admit or readmit covid positive patients, even though he claimed he did not know that was the policy. And secondly, he issued new guidelines urging emergency services workers not to bother trying to revive anyone without a pulse when they get to a scene, amid the covid outbreak.
First responders were outraged over the move.
"They're not giving people a second chance to live anymore,'' Oren Barzilay, head of the city union whose members include uniformed EMTs and paramedics, fumed of state officials.
First responders were outraged over the move.
"They're not giving people a second chance to live anymore,'' Oren Barzilay, head of the city union whose members include uniformed EMTs and paramedics, fumed of state officials.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,263
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Additionally, we should not be shutting down the economy for bumps. For example, we now know NC can handle daily new cases in the 500 range and 20 average deaths per day without causing distress to our healthcare capacity. Since the shutdown was put in place to reduce the chance of exceeding out healthcare capacity, future outbreaks that have these current levels of cases and deaths should NOT cause us to lockdown the economy.Wayland said:
Cuomo is in full spread fear mode right now. His slide showing an exponential off the chart explosion of cases in July if they ease up now was almost comical. NY likely hit a similar curve as Italy, Spain, UK, where the virus basically exhausted itself due to mass spread.
I think there are certainly a lot of places that could have later spikes worse than they have now. I think NYC saw the virus' natural worst trend given their variables. Again, not saying they won't have a future 'bump' in cases, but assuming antibodies provide immunity, I can't see how it would be feasible to have a second worse curve for NYC.
I certainly do not want to see 20 or more deaths a day from this, but I would suggest ongoing deaths in the 5-10 per day range (at steady-state) would be manageable and should not cause us to shutdown the economy. During the flu season in NC this year, we averaged approximately 1 death per day. So if you take this as a lower threshold, the question for the public health experts is what number above 1 per day is going to be allowed before we shutdown the economy again.
We have learned a lot about the virus over the past few months and we will continue to learn more about the virus,the mechanisms of infection and the mortality rates.We are starting to realize that the CFR is likely in the 0.5% range and the IFR is likely less than 1%. Plugging these values into updated models will likely drive a different response from the one we are experiencing now.
What will long term impacts be for students who have essentially missed a full quarter of school?
Good decision.
I am a bit confused. Was there a reason they couldn't have just said yesterday during the briefing "schools will remain closed for the year"? Was there a need or reason to stretch it out another day? Not that it does anything either way...just doesn't make sense
Efficiency is a foreign concept in government circles. They probably had ten meetings to decide what everyone knew was going to happen anyway. Then you've got to have a few more meetings to plan the briefing.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
Add the extra school officials to the meeting, not that anyone asked them any questions.
Again, side note at the end of that meeting was that some nursing home in Harnett County has 50+ cases that wasn't on the DHHS site and they wanted to know why. These are the things causing case spikes or positively rate spikes, and need to be separated out from general testing since they are congregate/confined populations.
Just a side note on positive percent ratings as I watch the NJ press conference. NC's was a little about average at 10% today. NJ positive test percent is running about 44-45% daily. Perspective is always good.
Again, side note at the end of that meeting was that some nursing home in Harnett County has 50+ cases that wasn't on the DHHS site and they wanted to know why. These are the things causing case spikes or positively rate spikes, and need to be separated out from general testing since they are congregate/confined populations.
Just a side note on positive percent ratings as I watch the NJ press conference. NC's was a little about average at 10% today. NJ positive test percent is running about 44-45% daily. Perspective is always good.
Miami-Dade antibody test:
"UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.
That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html
"UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.
That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html
Was just looking at CNN-Trump homepage....and the thing that is most clear to me is -- if Trump wants the country to get moving forward, Trump needs to stay away from the pressers.He can never help himself to get in a p' contest, so ends up saying things off script that are wrong, whether purposeful or not.
Which is probably not necessarily unique to presidents / leaders, except it has now become a game with the media, and it completely detracts from actual news updates....and then you mix in the way news agencies today completely mix "opinion" with, and into the news and analysis stories, and its hard to tell what is what....and it just results in confusion and angst amongst the people that he wants to get back into circulation.
It's a sad cycle we are in....and both groups are guilty (and both, apparently, giddy about the ratings).
Which is probably not necessarily unique to presidents / leaders, except it has now become a game with the media, and it completely detracts from actual news updates....and then you mix in the way news agencies today completely mix "opinion" with, and into the news and analysis stories, and its hard to tell what is what....and it just results in confusion and angst amongst the people that he wants to get back into circulation.
It's a sad cycle we are in....and both groups are guilty (and both, apparently, giddy about the ratings).
Ten times the current reported rate. How many of these studies have to happen before this is front page news? There are experts, and non experts like myself, who have been saying this for months.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
Heard him on WPTF this afternoon & thought he made a pretty good case for Eastern NC to move into Phase 1 immediately & that Cooper and team need to not use Charlotte area results to dictate how to move forward in other areas in the state.cowboypack02 said:Henry Hinton on his show in Greenville NC this morning said that he was told by a source in the hospital that the entire Vidant hospital system only has 41 cases as of yesterday. To put that in perspective Vidant serves 1.4 million people in 29 eastern NC counties.Daviewolf83 said:Our one of my pet peeves the news media (WRAL in particular) repeats daily - "NC has 7,608 cases of the Coronavirus." The proper words would be - "NC has recorded a total of 7,608 cases, since testing began." Based on my rough estimates, NC currently has approximately 3,900 active cases of the Coronavirus. I know they like to report it the way I stated, since it sounds more alarming, but if they want to report facts, they have to change the words they use.Wayland said:
It is why absolute number of positive cases is a horrible metric for establishing lockdown restrictions. The panic when the media reports "OMG NEW NC RECORD IN POSITVE CORONA CASES!!!!!" without immediately properly adding the context that the state actually ran some of the highest number of actual tests OR that the number of positive cases was directly related to a congregate outbreak like a prison.
Number of positive cases should only be used as a supporting metric, or in testing closed/confined populations.
I see on worldometers that new cases today are over 37,000. I am assuming that is due to more testing or antibody testing? Is that a correct assumption or am I missing something with these numbers?
I've sort of been keeping up with this thread... but is anyone reporting on % of positive tests by geographic region/state/country/etc?
Featured Stories
See All
RELEASE: Pack Adds Two Signees in Class of 2025
by NC State Athletics
8:43
2h ago
253
IPS IN 5: Jayden Taylor Leads The Way
by James Henderson
GAME HIGHLIGHTS: NC State's Home Win Over Coastal Carolina
by James Henderson
8:37
14h ago
616
Kevin Keatts: "I Love the Way This Group Plays"
by Rob McLamb
5:40
15h ago
317
LOCKER ROOM REPORT: Wolfpack Players
by Daniel Wilson
StrengthOfThePack92
BOX SCORE: NC State 82, Coastal Carolina 70 (POSTGAME THREAD)
in Reynolds Concourse
11
StrengthOfThePack92
BOX SCORE: NC State 82, Coastal Carolina 70 (POSTGAME THREAD)
in Reynolds Concourse
6