Coronavirus
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I am just posting one graph right now, but it helps to show what I am talking about with regards to deaths after the lockdown.
1. The first two deaths from the Coronavirus were reported on 3/26. This was 22 days after the first reported case. Based on most things I have read, the virus generally takes between 2-14 days for symptoms to show up and typically, people who die from the virus are on average infected for 20 days, prior to death. Some are infected longer and some shorter, based on other underlying health factors, but the average is 20 days.
2. The Stay-at-Home order was issued on March 30.
3. As of 4/19, the Stay-at-Home order was in effect for 20 days (see point 1 above).
The Daily Deaths graph below shows when the Stay-at-Home order was put in place and also shows a point 20 days beyond the Stay-at-Home order. It also includes a 7-day moving average trend line. I am using the seven day period due to the reporting lags that seem to get worse around the weekend. I am also showing the Non-Congregate and Congregate deaths as stacked bars starting on 4/19, since this is when NCDHHS started breaking down this data. You can assume some of the deaths before this date were also from Congregate facilities.
1. The first two deaths from the Coronavirus were reported on 3/26. This was 22 days after the first reported case. Based on most things I have read, the virus generally takes between 2-14 days for symptoms to show up and typically, people who die from the virus are on average infected for 20 days, prior to death. Some are infected longer and some shorter, based on other underlying health factors, but the average is 20 days.
2. The Stay-at-Home order was issued on March 30.
3. As of 4/19, the Stay-at-Home order was in effect for 20 days (see point 1 above).
The Daily Deaths graph below shows when the Stay-at-Home order was put in place and also shows a point 20 days beyond the Stay-at-Home order. It also includes a 7-day moving average trend line. I am using the seven day period due to the reporting lags that seem to get worse around the weekend. I am also showing the Non-Congregate and Congregate deaths as stacked bars starting on 4/19, since this is when NCDHHS started breaking down this data. You can assume some of the deaths before this date were also from Congregate facilities.
I can't get over the fact that 61% of the deaths have been in Congregate living facilities vs. 39% across the rest of the general public.
Wouldn't surprise me if he's announcing they're going to form a committee to come up with a plan like they announced they were just forming a testing task force...Wayland said:
3pm. Governor is supposed to announce the plan.
Watch Live:
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
Brett Jensen is saying 10-14 more days. Hope he's wrong.
I was guessing 5/15 at a minimum. Would not surprise me if around 5/8 they announced it would go through end of May. Hopefully mid-May they will have a path for the counties that don't have outbreaks, unfortunately i'm in Mecklenburg so will be under some sort of stay at home for the foreseeable future.packgrad said:
Brett Jensen is saying 10-14 more days. Hope he's wrong.
I am shocked the news out of NY antibody is not the headline on every site right now with the massive implications.wilmwolf80 said:
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Not lifting restrictions, extending order to May 8.
Germany showed a lockdown locked the R0 at 1. We are screwed.
If they use a positive case rate we will never get out. The more they test, the more cases they will find, as evidenced by EVERYWHERE.
Cohen is framing the data where staying flat in some metrics is ok. So that is positive.
It feels like saying May 8th is setting up a 2 week window starting today. Will see what governor says.
Phase 1
Phase 2 - 2-3 weeks after Phase 1
Phase 3 - 4-6 weeks after Phase 2 (earliest if we start Phase 1 is June 19th)
Actual dates are my own estimates, Roy just said the time period in each phase.
Education announcement is tomorrow.
Germany showed a lockdown locked the R0 at 1. We are screwed.
If they use a positive case rate we will never get out. The more they test, the more cases they will find, as evidenced by EVERYWHERE.
Cohen is framing the data where staying flat in some metrics is ok. So that is positive.
It feels like saying May 8th is setting up a 2 week window starting today. Will see what governor says.
Phase 1
Phase 2 - 2-3 weeks after Phase 1
Phase 3 - 4-6 weeks after Phase 2 (earliest if we start Phase 1 is June 19th)
Actual dates are my own estimates, Roy just said the time period in each phase.
Education announcement is tomorrow.
Wayland said:I am shocked the news out of NY antibody is not the headline on every site right now with the massive implications.wilmwolf80 said:
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Are you really shocked? The media wouldn't dare withhold that headline if it fit their narritive. The fact remains that you will see very little, if any, good news coming from the media. I pissed a lot of people off the other day on a board by showing them the deaths for general population and nursing homes, etc. Some don't want to see any change and that includes 99% of the media.
Wayland said:
Not lifting restrictions, extending order to May 8.
Germany showed a lockdown locked the R0 at 1. We are screwed.
If they use a positive case rate we will never get out. The more they test, the more cases they will find, as evidenced by EVERYWHERE.
Cohen is framing the data where staying flat in some metrics is ok. So that is positive.
It feels like saying May 8th is setting up a 2 week window starting today. Will see what governor says.
Phase 1
Phase 2 - 2-3 weeks after Phase 1
Phase 3 - 4-6 weeks after Phase 2 (earliest if we start Phase 1 is June 19th)
Actual dates are my own estimates, Roy just said the time period in each phase.
Education announcement is tomorrow.
June 19th to open the entire economy up at the earliest? Yea, that is going to look really nice. Exactly what the hell will they be reopening at that point that hasn't already locked their doors for good?
Nope Phase 1 no earlier than May 9th.
Well this might stoke anger but it is the front headline on foxnews.com.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:I am shocked the news out of NY antibody is not the headline on every site right now with the massive implications.wilmwolf80 said:
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Are you really shocked? The media wouldn't dare withhold that headline if it fit their narritive. The fact remains that you will see very little, if any, good news coming from the media. I pissed a lot of people off the other day on a board by showing them the deaths for general population and nursing homes, etc. Some don't want to see any change and that includes 99% of the media.
ncsualum05 said:Well this might stoke anger but it is the front headline on foxnews.com.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:I am shocked the news out of NY antibody is not the headline on every site right now with the massive implications.wilmwolf80 said:
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Are you really shocked? The media wouldn't dare withhold that headline if it fit their narritive. The fact remains that you will see very little, if any, good news coming from the media. I pissed a lot of people off the other day on a board by showing them the deaths for general population and nursing homes, etc. Some don't want to see any change and that includes 99% of the media.
Shocking!
Took a while to get there. The news came out before noon, I bounced around sites this afternoon (even Fox News) and while they all had it, it was a side item.RunsWithWolves26 said:ncsualum05 said:Well this might stoke anger but it is the front headline on foxnews.com.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:I am shocked the news out of NY antibody is not the headline on every site right now with the massive implications.wilmwolf80 said:
Fascinated by the push back on social media anytime there is any indication that the disease isn't as deadly as first claimed. Very smart people are providing very well reasoned arguments based on the additional data that keeps coming in, and people insist on shouting all of it down. As a human being, why would you not want this to be less deadly? Some of it is politics sure, but the group think fear mongering seems to be a condition as bad as the virus. Like everything in society, there are groups that want to force every issue to extremes. It must be black or white, yes or no, but it is very possible that this pandemic is both very deadly, but at the same time not nearly as deadly as first feared. But if you try to point that out, good luck, because you are a horrible person that doesn't care if people die.
Are you really shocked? The media wouldn't dare withhold that headline if it fit their narritive. The fact remains that you will see very little, if any, good news coming from the media. I pissed a lot of people off the other day on a board by showing them the deaths for general population and nursing homes, etc. Some don't want to see any change and that includes 99% of the media.
Shocking!
Maybe just is taking time to digest.
I still can't see how Phase 1 is different than what we are in now, since no additional businesses are allowed to open in Phase 1.
So essentially the stay at home is until May 22nd. Except starting May 9th (MAYBE), you don't HAVE to stay at home, you just can't go anywhere new? Confusing.
So essentially the stay at home is until May 22nd. Except starting May 9th (MAYBE), you don't HAVE to stay at home, you just can't go anywhere new? Confusing.
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I am not surprised about the governor's announcement today. I actually expected him to extend Stay-at-Home until mid-May. I expect some lesser hit counties to push to open sooner and some probably will go without governor's approval.
Here are some other charts I have been updating today.
1. First chart is the one I have been maintaining that tracks actual total deaths to the Mean Total Deaths for all versions of the IHME model. It appears the official numbers from NCDHHS are tracking right on top of the model predictions from the latest version.
2. I have updated the Daily New Cases to show a split in Congregate and Non-Congregate cases and added a 7-day moving average trendline. As I did with the deaths graph, I used seven days due to the reporting delays we seem to have with the data. Please notice that the trendline is starting to flatten. I really think we are starting to hit a plateau with this data. I included some annotations to show where the Stay-at-Home orders were implemented and another marker 14 days out from this date. According to the CDC, most people experience the virus for 14 days and for the average person, the symptoms show up 5 days after exposure. So, any cases after the 14 days, you should assume they are people exposed AFTER the lock-down orders went into effect.
3. Updated the Hospitalizations graph to include a 7-day moving average trend line. Please note that hospitalizations jumped up a couple of days ago and now seems to be flattening.
4. Updated the Testing graph to only show daily positives and daily tests. Before, I was using a graph that showed cumulative testing results. For the past seven days, the positive rate has been 14%. This means we are not sampling enough people (needs to be closer to 10% positive). Based on what Dr. Cohen said last week, we need to double the daily testing and these recent percentages would back this up. I think we have to get to at least 7,000 tests per day. We have the physical capacity in NC for this, but need additional PPE and test kits to expand.
Here are some other charts I have been updating today.
1. First chart is the one I have been maintaining that tracks actual total deaths to the Mean Total Deaths for all versions of the IHME model. It appears the official numbers from NCDHHS are tracking right on top of the model predictions from the latest version.
2. I have updated the Daily New Cases to show a split in Congregate and Non-Congregate cases and added a 7-day moving average trendline. As I did with the deaths graph, I used seven days due to the reporting delays we seem to have with the data. Please notice that the trendline is starting to flatten. I really think we are starting to hit a plateau with this data. I included some annotations to show where the Stay-at-Home orders were implemented and another marker 14 days out from this date. According to the CDC, most people experience the virus for 14 days and for the average person, the symptoms show up 5 days after exposure. So, any cases after the 14 days, you should assume they are people exposed AFTER the lock-down orders went into effect.
3. Updated the Hospitalizations graph to include a 7-day moving average trend line. Please note that hospitalizations jumped up a couple of days ago and now seems to be flattening.
4. Updated the Testing graph to only show daily positives and daily tests. Before, I was using a graph that showed cumulative testing results. For the past seven days, the positive rate has been 14%. This means we are not sampling enough people (needs to be closer to 10% positive). Based on what Dr. Cohen said last week, we need to double the daily testing and these recent percentages would back this up. I think we have to get to at least 7,000 tests per day. We have the physical capacity in NC for this, but need additional PPE and test kits to expand.
Wayland said:
I still can't see how Phase 1 is different than what we are in now, since no additional businesses are allowed to open in Phase 1.
So essentially the stay at home is until May 22nd. Except starting May 9th (MAYBE), you don't HAVE to stay at home, you just can't go anywhere new? Confusing.
This is where I would like some clarification as well...
Similar numbers in Mass:statefan91 said:
I can't get over the fact that 61% of the deaths have been in Congregate living facilities vs. 39% across the rest of the general public.
1316 of their 2360 deaths are in care facilities.
283 Care Facilities with at least one case.
Overall in their state (one of the hardest hit), 24 of the 2360 deaths are in people under 50 (about 1%)
1504 of the deaths are in people over 80.
Overall, 97.9% of deaths have underlying conditions.
Interesting to see these numbers scaled for another state that really shows the how impacted nursing homes are.
In Phase 1:
- Modify the Stay At Home order allow travel not currently defined as essential allowing people to leave home for commercial activity at any business that is allowed to be open, such as clothing stores, sporting goods stores, book shops, houseware stores and other retailers.
- Ensure that any open stores implement appropriate employee and consumer social distancing, enhanced hygiene and cleaning protocols, symptom screening of employees, accommodations for vulnerable workers, and provide education to employees and workers to combat misinformation
- Continue to limit gatherings to no more than 10 people
- Reopen parks that have been closed subject to the same gathering limitation. Outdoor exercise will continue to be encouraged.
- Continue to recommend face coverings in public spaces when 6 feet of distancing isn't possible
- Encourage employers to continue teleworking policies
- Continue rigorous restrictions on nursing homes and other congregant care settings
- Local emergency orders with more restrictive measures may remain in place.
My biggest issue with this plan is that there almost NO difference in what we're currently doing and what occurs in Phase 1.
I don't disagree with extending the stay at home order, but phase one is total bs. Essentially Cooper is saying in 4-5 weeks we can start to loosen restrictions...
I don't think this decision is wise given the data we're seeing.
I don't disagree with extending the stay at home order, but phase one is total bs. Essentially Cooper is saying in 4-5 weeks we can start to loosen restrictions...
I don't think this decision is wise given the data we're seeing.
Agree. We should move to Phase 1 immediately.King Leary said:
My biggest issue with this plan is that there almost NO difference in what we're currently doing and what occurs in Phase 1.
I don't disagree with extending the stay at home order, but phase one is total bs. Essentially Cooper is saying in 4-5 weeks we can start to loosen restrictions...
I don't think this decision is wise given the data we're seeing.
Or even just replace "phase one" with phase two. Phase one is just there to make it appear like we're progressing towards opening up. Phase one is status quo from our current state.
New surveillance report for state just posted.
Haven't digested it yet.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Haven't digested it yet.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Someone help me understand the following from Gov. Cooper's plan. One of the requirements is the following:
How is it feasible that we will have a leveling or decreased trajectory if they are continually expanding testing? If you are increasing your denominator of tests, of course the # of positives will increase. The next bullet is around % of positive which seems much more of a valid metric:Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory of Lab-Confirmed Cases Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory of lab-confirmed cases over the last 14 days cases is still increasing, although at a slower rate.
Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory in Percent of Tests Returning Positive Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory in percent of tests returning positive over the last 14 days is increasing at a slow rate.
Wayland said:
New surveillance report for state just posted.
Haven't digested it yet.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Looking forward to digestion. My uneducated eyes don't see the justification for today's decision.
statefan91 said:
Someone help me understand the following from Gov. Cooper's plan. One of the requirements is the following:How is it feasible that we will have a leveling or decreased trajectory if they are continually expanding testing? If you are increasing your denominator of tests, of course the # of positives will increase. The next bullet is around % of positive which seems much more of a valid metric:Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory of Lab-Confirmed Cases Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory of lab-confirmed cases over the last 14 days cases is still increasing, although at a slower rate.
Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory in Percent of Tests Returning Positive Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory in percent of tests returning positive over the last 14 days is increasing at a slow rate.
They gave themselves a huge out on the levelling, and Cohen even stressed that positive case rate was more important than overall positives, just for that reason. As they expand testing they will find more positive, especially since DHHS removed some of the limitation recommendations on testing (65 older, congregate, severe, healthcare only).
That being said, I still don't love positive cases in any capacity as a metric, unless you see some kind of outlandish spike and or test rate. As evidenced by NY antibody (and others) testing, this is WAY more widespread. And any increased testing is going to lead to a roughly linear increase in positive cases.
Looks like a lot of declining / lack of hospital visits / etcpackgrad said:Wayland said:
New surveillance report for state just posted.
Haven't digested it yet.
https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf
Looking forward to digestion. My uneducated eyes don't see the justification for today's decision.
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You have to expand testing to testing of people who do not display symptoms. Eventually, you can get the percentage positive to decline. Currently, over past 7 days we have had 14% test positive which means they are not testing enough of the general population. The percent positive should be closer to 10%.Wayland said:statefan91 said:
Someone help me understand the following from Gov. Cooper's plan. One of the requirements is the following:How is it feasible that we will have a leveling or decreased trajectory if they are continually expanding testing? If you are increasing your denominator of tests, of course the # of positives will increase. The next bullet is around % of positive which seems much more of a valid metric:Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory of Lab-Confirmed Cases Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory of lab-confirmed cases over the last 14 days cases is still increasing, although at a slower rate.
Quote:
- Sustained Leveling or Decreased Trajectory in Percent of Tests Returning Positive Over 14 Days
- Currently, North Carolina's trajectory in percent of tests returning positive over the last 14 days is increasing at a slow rate.
They gave themselves a huge out on the levelling, and Cohen even stressed that positive case rate was more important than overall positives, just for that reason. As they expand testing they will find more positive, especially since DHHS removed some of the limitation recommendations on testing (65 older, congregate, severe, healthcare only).
That being said, I still don't love positive cases in any capacity as a metric, unless you see some kind of outlandish spike and or test rate. As evidenced by NY antibody (and others) testing, this is WAY more widespread. And any increased testing is going to lead to a roughly linear increase in positive cases.
That was my point above, we'll never have lower # of overall cases if they're expanding tests. That's why it seems like a non-starter as a metric
If I hear Mike Pence say "we are healing our land" or "we are one day closer to this being over" I may start drinking again. People's rights have been taken from them, the government continues to falsify information and ignore facts that give right back to people but keep telling us to continue to do what we are told. Lord, I figured by now enough people would stand up and fight back. I guess that's asking to much. I'm just over this mess at this point. The continued lies at all levels by both parties and the continued omitting of key information is pathetic
Task force briefing had new info tonight about how long the virus can live. Said sunlight and humidity can kill the virus in two minutes or less. That's great news obviously. I've definitely been interested in the fact that Florida has seemed to do really well with the virus with all inputs considered. A state that's home to so many seniors has really done well from a fatality standpoint considering. Would seem the sunlight and humidity truly do help.
The virus is flat-lining right now. It's not growing nor is it diminishing... been this way for 3 weeks... that is WITH all the measures... so imagine where it would be WITHOUT the stay at home measures... back to exponential growth. Then imagine what happens to an economy that has lost .1% of the population... or maybe even 1%. We don't know. Nobody does, so all you guys with your gung ho surety are embarrassing yourselves... the fact is we don't have a ****ing clue b/c we haven't been through something like this in any of our lifetimes. It's scary, but the economy is ****ed no matter how it gets sliced here, so we might as well accept it, put our newfound free time to use, stop complaining, plant a ****in garden, and get ready for some tough ****, cuz it's here.ncsualum05 said:Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
Red&White said:The virus is flat-lining right now. It's not growing nor is it diminishing... been this way for 3 weeks... that is WITH all the measures... so imagine where it would be WITHOUT the stay at home measures... back to exponential growth. Then imagine what happens to an economy that has lost .1% of the population... or maybe even 1%. We don't know. Nobody does, so all you guys with your gung ho surety are embarrassing yourselves... the fact is we don't have a ****ing clue b/c we haven't been through something like this in any of our lifetimes. It's scary, but the economy is ****ed no matter how it gets sliced here, so we might as well accept it, put our newfound free time to use, stop complaining, plant a ****in garden, and get ready for some tough ****, cuz it's here.ncsualum05 said:Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
Cept for all the you know...facts...that don't support that
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