This is been the case since January 2017.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Today has been further proof that these white house press conferences are a total waste of time. You've got the president of the United States yelling and arguing with the media and the media yelling and arguing with the president and neither accomplishing a damn thing. These briefings, IMO, are totally pointless at this point. Nothing informative is coming from them. Just a bunch of idiots yelling at each other because they can't stand each other.
Coronavirus
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Last: 1 hr ago by Werewolf
Local hospital system and one of the unintended consequences of what is going on:
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
cowboypack02 said:
Local hospital system and one of the unintended consequences of what is going on:
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
But let's keep up the myth that we are still doing this to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
I think people are so beat down with the images they see on national news, local news, etc of chaos in NYC, and a few other major scares, that they don't even apply a logic check anymore...just take it all as horrible gospel.Wayland said:cowboypack02 said:
Local hospital system and one of the unintended consequences of what is going on:
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
But let's keep up the myth that we are still doing this to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.
And that includes many in the media.
Heh, Governor Cuomo doesn't even try to hide the fact that he is a smug little b*tch. The total lack of empathy by politicians and the media for those that are afraid of losing their livelihood as a result of being deemed nonessential and therefore unable to earn a living to provide for themselves and their families is astounding.
Where are the articles about the number of people that live paycheck to paycheck? We see those stats all the time when the media wants to trash the rich. What kind of shape are these people in after six weeks without a paycheck? That would be a great expose for the front page of the NYTimes or the WAPO. Why are we not hearing from the working poor and how they are surviving without the ability to make money?
In fact, the people demanding that we keep the economy shut down are still employed and being paid in full. It's easy for politicians and the media to demand others forgo their ability to work and provide the basic needs for themselves and their families.
Instead of the photos of these long lines waiting at food banks, maybe interview some of these people. I doubt you would hear them praising the decisions that have left them without the opportunity to work, and having to wait hours at a food bank hoping to get enough food to feed their children that night. Has anyone seen the cable networks interview any of these people waiting for a handout to put supper on the table?
The fact that the American people were lied to about the reason the economy was shuttered bothers me the most. Flatten the curve and keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. That was obviously a crock of you know what. That has been accomplished across the country in most cities, but now we still need more time. How much longer can this continue before the economy will not be able to recover? How many unemployed is too many? What will state and federal tax revenue shortfalls need to be before the government can't function as needed? Does there become a point where loss of tax revenue becomes a factor in opening back up the economy or by that time will it be too late?
While this deadly virus is very dangerous to many people, the consequences of trying to combat it could end up being worse. I'm tired of hearing from politicians that continue to get paid. They don't have any skin in this game from a financial perspective. Donate your salary to a local food bank so the single mom waitress that you forbid from earning a living can feed her children.
Congress is basically on vacation. Has anyone in the media asked the members of Congress why they voted to give themselves 25 million in the Cares Act? Why did they need that money now?
I think the government's plan and the media's narrative would be so much different if they were also facing the dire realities as many of the unemployed are in this country. It's easy to only look at this as a health crisis when your'e not facing the economic crisis.
Sorry for the rant. Also, full disclosure, I despise probably 95% of the politicians and 99% of the media in this country with a passion.
Where are the articles about the number of people that live paycheck to paycheck? We see those stats all the time when the media wants to trash the rich. What kind of shape are these people in after six weeks without a paycheck? That would be a great expose for the front page of the NYTimes or the WAPO. Why are we not hearing from the working poor and how they are surviving without the ability to make money?
In fact, the people demanding that we keep the economy shut down are still employed and being paid in full. It's easy for politicians and the media to demand others forgo their ability to work and provide the basic needs for themselves and their families.
Instead of the photos of these long lines waiting at food banks, maybe interview some of these people. I doubt you would hear them praising the decisions that have left them without the opportunity to work, and having to wait hours at a food bank hoping to get enough food to feed their children that night. Has anyone seen the cable networks interview any of these people waiting for a handout to put supper on the table?
The fact that the American people were lied to about the reason the economy was shuttered bothers me the most. Flatten the curve and keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. That was obviously a crock of you know what. That has been accomplished across the country in most cities, but now we still need more time. How much longer can this continue before the economy will not be able to recover? How many unemployed is too many? What will state and federal tax revenue shortfalls need to be before the government can't function as needed? Does there become a point where loss of tax revenue becomes a factor in opening back up the economy or by that time will it be too late?
While this deadly virus is very dangerous to many people, the consequences of trying to combat it could end up being worse. I'm tired of hearing from politicians that continue to get paid. They don't have any skin in this game from a financial perspective. Donate your salary to a local food bank so the single mom waitress that you forbid from earning a living can feed her children.
Congress is basically on vacation. Has anyone in the media asked the members of Congress why they voted to give themselves 25 million in the Cares Act? Why did they need that money now?
I think the government's plan and the media's narrative would be so much different if they were also facing the dire realities as many of the unemployed are in this country. It's easy to only look at this as a health crisis when your'e not facing the economic crisis.
Sorry for the rant. Also, full disclosure, I despise probably 95% of the politicians and 99% of the media in this country with a passion.
I think that's the problem with the media in general. 99% of the national media is located in NY, DC, or LA and have not idea how the rest of the country lives or operates. On a state level probably 95% of the media live in Raleigh or Charlotte and suffer the same issue in NC.Packchem91 said:I think people are so beat down with the images they see on national news, local news, etc of chaos in NYC, and a few other major scares, that they don't even apply a logic check anymore...just take it all as horrible gospel.Wayland said:cowboypack02 said:
Local hospital system and one of the unintended consequences of what is going on:
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
But let's keep up the myth that we are still doing this to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.
And that includes many in the media.
And if you follow any of them on twitter, you quickly can realize what the term "group think" means in a practical example. I mean, even the sports guys follow the same narrow mantra on every single issue.cowboypack02 said:I think that's the problem with the media in general. 99% of the national media is located in NY, DC, or LA and have not idea how the rest of the country lives or operates. On a state level probably 95% of the media live in Raleigh or Charlotte and suffer the same issue in NC.Packchem91 said:I think people are so beat down with the images they see on national news, local news, etc of chaos in NYC, and a few other major scares, that they don't even apply a logic check anymore...just take it all as horrible gospel.Wayland said:cowboypack02 said:
Local hospital system and one of the unintended consequences of what is going on:
https://www.wnct.com/local-news/vidant-health-announces-furloughs-reduction-in-salaries-and-shifts-effective-april-26/
But let's keep up the myth that we are still doing this to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.
And that includes many in the media.
One thing that's grinding my gears is something I've read repeated over and over on social media and other forums, which is this idea that the stay at home order was intended to stop people from dying, and if we remove the order, more people would die. The orders were never intended to stop people from dying. They were intended to hopefully slow down the rate of infection and death so as to not overwhelm the hospitals. The fact is, as others have pointed out, people will continue to die of Covid-19 for years in the future. Eventually, we all will be exposed to it, and those that are at risk will likely die. That may happen this week, it may happen next year, but it will happen. Society has to reopen, and when that happens, the disease will spread to everyone that it hasn't spread to already. With social distancing we may be able to slow that spread, although I grow more and more dubious that it works at all, but it will happen. This idea that we have to keep the orders in place until such time as no more people will die is absurd. That time will never exist, even if a vaccine is made, even if a cure is found, people will die of this disease in the future. Some risk will have to be assumed if we want to have a country to come back to. That is inevitable.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Why are more people not bringing this up? I thought about this yesterday. It's clear we have not overrun the hospitals and it's not armageddon. But it's also clear that this virus is still spreading. We've been under these orders for what 5 to 6 weeks now? Some came later I just know my kids have been out of school for 6 weeks. Long enough to know that we can't literally stop this virus from spreading.Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
I 100% agree with you -- unfortunately, tying this to the concurrent conversation about the media group think and the people as sheep....when Georgia or Oklahoma or _____ does experience a spike, whether "spike" means an extra 5 people per 100k or 100 people per 100k, it is going to get all blown up, and the people will be told to be even more scared.wilmwolf80 said:
One thing that's grinding my gears is something I've read repeated over and over on social media and other forums, which is this idea that the stay at home order was intended to stop people from dying, and if we remove the order, more people would die. The orders were never intended to stop people from dying. They were intended to hopefully slow down the rate of infection and death so as to not overwhelm the hospitals. The fact is, as others have pointed out, people will continue to die of Covid-19 for years in the future. Eventually, we all will be exposed to it, and those that are at risk will likely die. That may happen this week, it may happen next year, but it will happen. Society has to reopen, and when that happens, the disease will spread to everyone that it hasn't spread to already. With social distancing we may be able to slow that spread, although I grow more and more dubious that it works at all, but it will happen. This idea that we have to keep the orders in place until such time as no more people will die is absurd. That time will never exist, even if a vaccine is made, even if a cure is found, people will die of this disease in the future. Some risk will have to be assumed if we want to have a country to come back to. That is inevitable.
Astounding the difference in this board vs. the people in charge in regards to:
analysis, critical thinking, providing actual data worth review, social commentary and common sense....some of you all should be on the state task force. I would feel better about it, that's for sure!
analysis, critical thinking, providing actual data worth review, social commentary and common sense....some of you all should be on the state task force. I would feel better about it, that's for sure!
Some of that is probably financial, I have a friend that's a Doctor that was on a conference call regarding salary reductions last night because they're hurting financially.packgrad said:
Mecklenburg County commissioners want to extend lockdown another 2 weeks. Novant Health seems to disagree with this announcement.
Also, have seen some article that Mecklenburg can't extend the stay at home order without the support of all the towns that are contained within. Huntersville has already said they want to look at opening up so unless Cooper extends the statewide order I don't think Meck can keep theirs in place.
Heh, and Novant Health less than two weeks ago stressed the absolute need of constructing a field hospital to be able to handle the impending patient surge........
Agreed. It probably is impacted by financial reasons. What's good for the goose is good for the gander comes to mind.
Haha. I know. What a 2 weeks, huh?
Watching DeBlasio this morning, and holy ***** NYC had a full month where they averaged like 80% positive test rate for Covid-19 in the Public Health Lab. That is crazy high. Citywide peaked at 71% but was running over 50% for a while.
And those numbers are going down...but the question is, is it because of the SAH policy or simply because the virus was already a lot more widespread and this is just what the numbers are?Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
Or because many/most of the deaths are in congregate facilities?Pacfanweb said:And those numbers are going down...but the question is, is it because of the SAH policy or simply because the virus was already a lot more widespread and this is just what the numbers are?Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
4/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:35am)Wayland said:
4/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
5859
NC Deaths**
152
Currently Hospitalized
429 (87% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
72981
4/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6140
NC Deaths**
164
Currently Hospitalized
388 (88% hospital reporting)
Completed Tests
76211
4/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6493
NC Deaths**
172
Currently Hospitalized
465
Completed Tests
78772
66 Deaths are now Congregate (+7 since yesterday)
18 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not
That means 7 of the 8 deaths added to the total since yesterday are congregate deaths
59 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 188 (+2) and NandO is at 185. Again, the lag, I am guess is coming in trying to confirm death location. Don't know why the lag since WRAL was in the 180s on Friday.
85% of the deaths are 65+. That number keeps creeping up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
6764
NC Deaths**
179
Currently Hospitalized
373
Completed Tests
79484
NC Cases*
6951
NC Deaths**
213
Currently Hospitalized
427
Completed Tests
83331
NC Cases*
7220
NC Deaths**
242
Currently Hospitalized
434
Completed Tests
90336
116 Deaths are now Congregate (+20 since yesterday)
29 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+3)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+23 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
97 Deaths assumed General Population
145 Congregate and Unknown Setting.
67 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 244 (+2) and NandO is at 261
269 positive cases over 7005 new tests. 3.8% positive rate.
Why aren't we seeing all the reporting and media focus on the true crisis of congregate settings?
NC Cases*
7608
NC Deaths**
253
Currently Hospitalized
486
Completed Tests
96185
124 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
31 Deaths can't be confirmed Con/Not (+2)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
98 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
155 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
68 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 270 (+2) and NandO is at 273
388 positive cases over 5849 new tests. 6.6% positive rate.
DHHS is lagging hard on the media again but 10 of the 11 new deaths on DHHS were Congregate/Unknown. Only 1 was not.
Sounds like the same updates - State has done a terrible job preparing and protecting congregate facilities / prisons. General population is faring much better.
As I will show in some charts later today, the new daily cases curve is definitely bending and it appears the bending began approximately 10 days after the SAH orders were issued. This aligns with the evidence that it can take 2 to 10 days for symptoms to appear, with an average of about 5 days for most people.Pacfanweb said:And those numbers are going down...but the question is, is it because of the SAH policy or simply because the virus was already a lot more widespread and this is just what the numbers are?Daviewolf83 said:
Please remember this one fact. The people dying this week and next, were exposed to the virus after NC instituted the state-at-home policy.
It appears the new daily cases are effectively flat, so NC looks to have reached a plateau in the number of new daily cases. As such, the SAH orders will likely be extended to mid-May by the governor. By this time, I suspect we will have started heading down in the number of new daily cases, which will be a requirement to move to the first phase. Daily deaths have not plateaued and given deaths are a trailing indicator, I would expect them to not plateau until early next week.
Since the curves are statewide, it is possible some lesser hit counties will try to move to Phase 1 sooner than other areas of the state. It will be interesting to see if this happens and I personally believe this is an acceptable response. Reports we are hearing are the state of NC's first phase may be more restrictive than the Federal guidelines issued last week. We should have more detail later today at the daily press briefing.
I expect a justifiable stink to be made if the state quarantine is extended 2 more weeks and they allow hospitals to perform non emergency procedures.
Wake County for the last 7 days in positive cases:
+13
+13
+13
+3
+14
+7
+7
+13
+13
+13
+3
+14
+7
+7
Where did you find this? Or are you tracking yourself? I'm trying to find same information for Durham.
https://covid19.wakegov.com/ Clicked on cases. Counties vary on what they provide.packgrad said:
Where did you find this? Or are you tracking yourself? I'm trying to find same information for Durham.
Statewide NY 13.9% tested positive for antibodies. Per Cuomo briefing. In preliminary survey of 3000 residents.
Positive for antibodies.
(NYC 21.2%)
(Long Island 16.7%)
(Westchester/ Rockland 11.7%)
(Rest of State not NYC/Westchester/LI 3.6%)
2.7 million people in NY is 13.9% of population. Puts preliminary death rate at 0.5%.
Again, just a phase 1, preliminary survey by NY State government. But hey, at least someone is looking.
And I know nothing about antibodies, but don't you have to clear the virus to have them so this doesn't include current actives?
How do you trace 3 million people. Test and trace is lost in some places. What is the R0 correlation to population density?
There are two types of antibodies, so it depends on which one they were testing for with their tests. The first type of antibody is produced early in the infection cycle and this is type IgM. The one they want to look for to see if someone has had the virus is IgG and this is produced late in the cycle and is the one present after you are over the infection.Wayland said:
Statewide NY 13.9% tested positive for antibodies. Per Cuomo briefing. In preliminary survey of 3000 residents.
Positive for antibodies.
(NYC 21.2%)
(Long Island 16.7%)
(Westchester/ Rockland 11.7%)
(Rest of State not NYC/Westchester/LI 3.6%)
2.7 million people in NY is 13.9% of population. Puts preliminary death rate at 0.5%.
Again, just a phase 1, preliminary survey by NY State government. But hey, at least someone is looking.
And I know nothing about antibodies, but don't you have to clear the virus to have them so this doesn't include current actives?
How do you trace 3 million people. Test and trace is lost in some places. What is the R0 correlation to population density?
As to R0, this is the number of cases an infected person will cause during the period they are infectious. As Dr. Fauci said a couple of weeks ago, social distancing is the enemy of R0. If you have a high population density, you would expect R0 to be high - compared to areas with lower population density. To the degree you social distance, you reduce the R0. Ideally, you want R0 to be as close to 0 as possible.
I saw yesterday where China is doing it on people's phone. They also had things like QR codes that told what people could do because maybe they had CV-19 and have been cleared...etc. That might not get everyone but something must be done. "Smart" testing is the first step and ramping up where it can be done fairly easy and fairly safe and fairly quick with great accuracy. Smart meaning who is tested first, etc.Wayland said:
Statewide NY 13.9% tested positive for antibodies. Per Cuomo briefing. In preliminary survey of 3000 residents.
Positive for antibodies.
(NYC 21.2%)
(Long Island 16.7%)
(Westchester/ Rockland 11.7%)
(Rest of State not NYC/Westchester/LI 3.6%)
2.7 million people in NY is 13.9% of population. Puts preliminary death rate at 0.5%.
Again, just a phase 1, preliminary survey by NY State government. But hey, at least someone is looking.
And I know nothing about antibodies, but don't you have to clear the virus to have them so this doesn't include current actives?
How do you trace 3 million people. Test and trace is lost in some places. What is the R0 correlation to population density?
Right, but at what point did the lockdown help or did the virus hit its natural peak based on population density? Not that we shouldn't strive to protect susceptible populations. Just like each flu season has a natural peak and curve every year.Daviewolf83 said:There are two types of antibodies, so it depends on which one they were testing for with their tests. The first type of antibody is produced early in the infection cycle and this is type IgM. The one they want to look for to see if someone has had the virus is IgG and this is produced late in the cycle and is the one present after you are over the infection.Wayland said:
Statewide NY 13.9% tested positive for antibodies. Per Cuomo briefing. In preliminary survey of 3000 residents.
Positive for antibodies.
(NYC 21.2%)
(Long Island 16.7%)
(Westchester/ Rockland 11.7%)
(Rest of State not NYC/Westchester/LI 3.6%)
2.7 million people in NY is 13.9% of population. Puts preliminary death rate at 0.5%.
Again, just a phase 1, preliminary survey by NY State government. But hey, at least someone is looking.
And I know nothing about antibodies, but don't you have to clear the virus to have them so this doesn't include current actives?
How do you trace 3 million people. Test and trace is lost in some places. What is the R0 correlation to population density?
As to R0, this is the number of cases an infected person will cause during the period they are infectious. As Dr. Fauci said a couple of weeks ago, social distancing is the enemy of R0. If you have a high population density, you would expect R0 to be high - compared to areas with lower population density. To the degree you social distance, you reduce the R0. Ideally, you want R0 to be as close to 0 as possible.
What if New York (and the other super high dense centers in Western Europe) just maxed out their curves based on population density. Spain has been locked down hard and still has deaths trailing. There are studies that show that the UK trend past its peak before the lockdown there could make an impact.
Surgery centers in New Hanover county scheduled to restart electives as soon as Monday for a handful of physicians. All scheduled to re-open by 5/4. A bit of good news.
The lockdown came too late for it to help NYC and most everywhere else. I saw an article today (in the NY Times) that estimates that by the time the first case in NYC was diagnosed (March 1 - a lady who traveled from Iran), there were already over 10,000 cases silently active in the city.Wayland said:Right, but at what point did the lockdown help or did the virus hit its natural peak based on population density? Not that we shouldn't strive to protect susceptible populations. Just like each flu season has a natural peak and curve every year.Daviewolf83 said:There are two types of antibodies, so it depends on which one they were testing for with their tests. The first type of antibody is produced early in the infection cycle and this is type IgM. The one they want to look for to see if someone has had the virus is IgG and this is produced late in the cycle and is the one present after you are over the infection.Wayland said:
Statewide NY 13.9% tested positive for antibodies. Per Cuomo briefing. In preliminary survey of 3000 residents.
Positive for antibodies.
(NYC 21.2%)
(Long Island 16.7%)
(Westchester/ Rockland 11.7%)
(Rest of State not NYC/Westchester/LI 3.6%)
2.7 million people in NY is 13.9% of population. Puts preliminary death rate at 0.5%.
Again, just a phase 1, preliminary survey by NY State government. But hey, at least someone is looking.
And I know nothing about antibodies, but don't you have to clear the virus to have them so this doesn't include current actives?
How do you trace 3 million people. Test and trace is lost in some places. What is the R0 correlation to population density?
As to R0, this is the number of cases an infected person will cause during the period they are infectious. As Dr. Fauci said a couple of weeks ago, social distancing is the enemy of R0. If you have a high population density, you would expect R0 to be high - compared to areas with lower population density. To the degree you social distance, you reduce the R0. Ideally, you want R0 to be as close to 0 as possible.
What if New York (and the other super high dense centers in Western Europe) just maxed out their curves based on population density. Spain has been locked down hard and still has deaths trailing. There are studies that show that the UK trend past its peak before the lockdown there could make an impact.
As to deaths, we will always see them. Even if we stay locked down, we will continue to see them. By my estimates, in NC at least 50 deaths (likely more than this) have come from people infected AFTER the lockdown went into place. I will have a post later to explain the methodology, but it is becoming clear to me that:
1. Lockdowns have helped to slow the spread
2. Lockdowns have prevented many deaths by slowing the spread
3. Staying locked down will NOT stop cases from occurring and they will NOT prevent large numbers of people from dying.
The best option to lower the number of deaths will be to:
1. Keep all nursing homes and other congregate facilities locked down until a vaccine is available.
2. People who are over the age of 65 and more importantly, people over the age of 70 should not be going to any functions or events where there are large groups of people until a vaccine is available.
These recommendations are based on two documented facts:
1. 85% of the deaths in NC are people over the age of 65
2. By tomorrow or Saturday at the latest, over half of the NCDHHS documented deaths in NC will be from Congregate facilities.
When did you say you were running for public office? Why is it so hard for elected officials to use the data readily available to make decisions that won't cripple our society for decades to come?
It's been said many times, but I truly want to thank you Daviewolf83 and others for your time and willingness to research and provide great information during these crazy times.
It's been said many times, but I truly want to thank you Daviewolf83 and others for your time and willingness to research and provide great information during these crazy times.
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