Thanks. I fixed the wording. Also, I have received no response from the reporters contacted. I have also posted these graphs and some of my analysis on my Facebook page.statefan91 said:
Assume you mean huge number of people testing negative.
Also - did you get any response from any reporters?
Coronavirus
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Spain lowest deaths in over two weeks. Italy back under 600 today.
NY and NJ very similar to yesterday's deaths (NY a little down, NJ a little up). U.S totals will likely come in similar to the last few days (nearing 2000) barring any unforeseen spikes or backlog clearing.
NY and NJ very similar to yesterday's deaths (NY a little down, NJ a little up). U.S totals will likely come in similar to the last few days (nearing 2000) barring any unforeseen spikes or backlog clearing.
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Good news for NY and NJ, the rate of change for New Cases per Day from day to day is effectively flat. In other words, the number of new cases from day-to-day is basically the same.Wayland said:
Spain lowest deaths in over two weeks. Italy back under 600 today.
NY and NJ very similar to yesterday's deaths (NY a little down, NJ a little up). U.S totals will likely come in similar to the last few days (nearing 2000) barring any unforeseen spikes or backlog clearing.
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Looks like IHME is incorporating new data. NC is down to 416 deaths estimated.Daviewolf83 said:Good news for NY and NJ, the rate of change for New Cases per Day from day to day is effectively flat. In other words, the number of new cases from day-to-day is basically the same.Wayland said:
Spain lowest deaths in over two weeks. Italy back under 600 today.
NY and NJ very similar to yesterday's deaths (NY a little down, NJ a little up). U.S totals will likely come in similar to the last few days (nearing 2000) barring any unforeseen spikes or backlog clearing.
IHME increased the total deaths by about 500, dropped the amount of beds and vents down and now say today will be the peak day for deaths. Not sure what their rational is for increasing death total by a few hundred when the numbers have come in under their estimates on a consistent basis. I figure it will totally change by Monday.
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Wayland - Thanks for the heads up. I will pull the latest updates into my spreadsheet. They must have updated just a short time ago. I checked mid-morning and the forecasts had not changed. The latest total for deaths are coming closer to what I would estimate based on the latest trends. Before these numbers were posted, I was thinking total deaths would be below 450.Wayland said:Looks like IHME is incorporating new data. NC is down to 416 deaths estimated.Daviewolf83 said:Good news for NY and NJ, the rate of change for New Cases per Day from day to day is effectively flat. In other words, the number of new cases from day-to-day is basically the same.Wayland said:
Spain lowest deaths in over two weeks. Italy back under 600 today.
NY and NJ very similar to yesterday's deaths (NY a little down, NJ a little up). U.S totals will likely come in similar to the last few days (nearing 2000) barring any unforeseen spikes or backlog clearing.
I feel like their overall graph has a much longer tail.RunsWithWolves26 said:
IHME increased the total deaths by about 500, dropped the amount of beds and vents down and now say today will be the peak day for deaths. Not sure what their rational is for increasing death total by a few hundred when the numbers have come in under their estimates on a consistent basis. I figure it will totally change by Monday.
I'm guessing that's because they're modeling this assuming social distancing through the month of May, so most of the tails go through at least beginning of June.Wayland said:I feel like their overall graph has a much longer tail.RunsWithWolves26 said:
IHME increased the total deaths by about 500, dropped the amount of beds and vents down and now say today will be the peak day for deaths. Not sure what their rational is for increasing death total by a few hundred when the numbers have come in under their estimates on a consistent basis. I figure it will totally change by Monday.
Global aggregate deaths now over 100,000.
Wayland said:I feel like their overall graph has a much longer tail.RunsWithWolves26 said:
IHME increased the total deaths by about 500, dropped the amount of beds and vents down and now say today will be the peak day for deaths. Not sure what their rational is for increasing death total by a few hundred when the numbers have come in under their estimates on a consistent basis. I figure it will totally change by Monday.
You are probably right. Looking at the graph, it's hard to believe they could have gone up on total deaths with every day coming in under what they had projected. It is nice to see them say today should be the peak of deaths as well as their shortage numbers decreasing. Although IMO, I believe they are way over estimating what is needed and shortage numbers
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In looking at total deaths, the 4/7 model hits the maximum number (522.052 deaths) on 5/19. For the 4/9 model, it hits the maximum number of deaths (415.609 deaths) on 5/15. I get frustrated when the news media keeps saying deaths through August 1. After these dates, the models are not projecting any further increases, so they are being misleading with this statement. Total deaths from this outbreak should hit a max in mid-May.Wayland said:I feel like their overall graph has a much longer tail.RunsWithWolves26 said:
IHME increased the total deaths by about 500, dropped the amount of beds and vents down and now say today will be the peak day for deaths. Not sure what their rational is for increasing death total by a few hundred when the numbers have come in under their estimates on a consistent basis. I figure it will totally change by Monday.
The state of NC has four weeks to get their Test-and-Target planning complete and ready to go.
Here is why media members get so disrespected. From Brett Jensen today. No context, no follow ups to justify how this compares to the projections, etc. He should have labeled it "Breaking News" in all red cap font
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
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That is just a statement to get eyeballs and generate hysteria. Quite frankly, it is sloppy journalism. I just responded to his Tweet with the following:Packchem91 said:
Here is why media members get so disrespected. From Brett Jensen today. No context, no follow ups to justify how this compares to the projections, etc. He should have labeled it "Breaking News" in all red cap font
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
While every death is tragic, I would point out that total deaths are well below what the IHME model projected for this same date. While the number of those hospitalized is up, the rate of increase in hospitalization is basically flat (look at the logarithmic plots of data).
I'd also like further demographic breakdown on NC cases. How many came from congregate facilities? What is the true median age?Daviewolf83 said:That is just a statement to get eyeballs and generate hysteria. Quite frankly, it is sloppy journalism. I just responded to his Tweet with the following:Packchem91 said:
Here is why media members get so disrespected. From Brett Jensen today. No context, no follow ups to justify how this compares to the projections, etc. He should have labeled it "Breaking News" in all red cap font
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
While every death is tragic, I would point out that total deaths are well below what the IHME model projected for this same date. While the number of those hospitalized is up, the rate of increase in hospitalization is basically flat (look at the logarithmic plots of data).
Every press conference is about sound bites (both from media and government) instead of actually getting a real dialog.
Somehow people have gotten it in their head that no one is going to die, sadly it isn't realistic with a largely asymptomatic virus that is widespread. Covid-19 deaths will never be non-zero, ever. The goal should always have been mitigation, not overtaxing healthcare, and testing/identfying outbreaks to keep down fatalities.
As a whole NC has fared really well to this point and that should be celebrated.
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I 100% agree.Wayland said:I'd also like further demographic breakdown on NC cases. How many came from congregate facilities? What is the true median age?Daviewolf83 said:That is just a statement to get eyeballs and generate hysteria. Quite frankly, it is sloppy journalism. I just responded to his Tweet with the following:Packchem91 said:
Here is why media members get so disrespected. From Brett Jensen today. No context, no follow ups to justify how this compares to the projections, etc. He should have labeled it "Breaking News" in all red cap font
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
While every death is tragic, I would point out that total deaths are well below what the IHME model projected for this same date. While the number of those hospitalized is up, the rate of increase in hospitalization is basically flat (look at the logarithmic plots of data).
Every press conference is about sound bites (both from media and government) instead of actually getting a real dialog.
Somehow people have gotten it in their head that no one is going to die, sadly it isn't realistic with a largely asymptomatic virus that is widespread. Covid-19 deaths will never be non-zero, ever. The goal has should always been mitigation, not overtaxing healthcare, and testing/identfying outbreaks to keep down fatalities.
As a whole NC has fared really well to this point and that should be celebrated.
In a few weeks, we are going to begin reopening the economy. After this starts, people will continue to get the virus, just like people get other illnesses. People will be hospitalized, just like they are with other viruses. People will unfortunately die, just like they do with other viruses. What we will depend on is having a surveillance system in place that allows for rapid testing of suspected cases and doing contact tracing to identify who else to test and quarantine. We will have to move at that point from assuming everyone is sick and needs to quarantine (what we are doing with the lock-down) to a practice of testing those who deal with the most at-risk of our population and those who have symptoms.
I just saw a reporter for NBC ask President Trump about opening up the economy without testing and citing some study that said people will die when the economy is open - implying how dare you open the economy with the chance people will die. Here's the facts. We will open the economy and people will die from the virus. This is tragic, but at some point you have to accept this will happen. When you open, you must be able to protect the healthcare system to keep it from being maxed out, but the economy has to reopen.
"The Moore County Health Department has determined that further testing in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities in the county isn't necessary, as the coronavirus is likely present in all such facilities."
If we are throwing in the towel on nursing homes, let's just get back to opening it all up.
If we are throwing in the towel on nursing homes, let's just get back to opening it all up.
I haven't read the book in 30 years but Apple/google's test and trace sounds like the Scarlet Letter. I'm certainly not signing up for any government tracking until we know more about the virus. The whole time we have been led astray with doomsday forecasts, losing civil liberties (out of caution and argumentally the correct decision), and giving the government a lot more say in my daily life than I am comfortable giving them. I am not voluntarily giving this type of tracking information until we know more about this virus, and how proper the virus reaction was.
At the end of the day, I think the American people did a much better job than expected to distance and that is what really made the biggest difference. Any model has assumptions and the american public has not done this recently. We have all paid a big penalty but are not out of the woods yet.
Interesting seeing a full profile of ages and conditions like Mass provides.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-10-2020/download
1 out of 96 deaths in their 40s
1 out of 96 deaths in their 50s
7 out of 96 in their 60s
58 out of 96 in their 70s/80s (didn't count it out).
25 out of 96 in their 90s
4 out of 96 in their 100s
Twice as many died over 100 than under 60.
I would like to see a profile like this for NC.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-10-2020/download
1 out of 96 deaths in their 40s
1 out of 96 deaths in their 50s
7 out of 96 in their 60s
58 out of 96 in their 70s/80s (didn't count it out).
25 out of 96 in their 90s
4 out of 96 in their 100s
Twice as many died over 100 than under 60.
I would like to see a profile like this for NC.
Am I wrong to think that by the time we see the statistical decline of cases and deaths, we'll actually be further along due to the delay in reporting both? Positive results and deaths reported out are somewhere between 1-7 days old, correct?
Everpack said:
Am I wrong to think that by the time we see the statistical decline of cases and deaths, we'll actually be further along due to the delay in reporting both? Positive results and deaths reported out are somewhere between 1-7 days old, correct?
Definite delay on positive tests, don't know how much death lag NC has. Usually does lag on weekends.
On a side note, Texas is releasing some kind of open back up plan on Monday.
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The death lag seems to be at least one day, but I think there are a few deaths taking two days to report. I still think we are 5 to 6 days from peak on cases and 10 to 12 days on deaths. We are about a week behind NYC with regards to peaks. By this time next week (4/17), I believe NC will have 215 deaths. The latest model says next Friday is peak for deaths in NC, but I think it will be end of next weekend, given current trajectories.Wayland said:Everpack said:
Am I wrong to think that by the time we see the statistical decline of cases and deaths, we'll actually be further along due to the delay in reporting both? Positive results and deaths reported out are somewhere between 1-7 days old, correct?
Definite delay on positive tests, don't know how much death lag NC has. Usually does lag on weekends.
On a side note, Texas is releasing some kind of open back up plan on Monday.
Daviewolf83 said:The death lag seems to be at least one day, but I think there are a few deaths taking two days to report. I still think we are 5 to 6 days from peak on cases and 10 to 12 days on deaths. We are about a week behind NYC with regards to peaks. By this time next week (4/17), I believe NC will have 215 deaths. The latest model says next Friday is peak for deaths in NC, but I think it will be end of next weekend, given current trajectories.Wayland said:Everpack said:
Am I wrong to think that by the time we see the statistical decline of cases and deaths, we'll actually be further along due to the delay in reporting both? Positive results and deaths reported out are somewhere between 1-7 days old, correct?
Definite delay on positive tests, don't know how much death lag NC has. Usually does lag on weekends.
On a side note, Texas is releasing some kind of open back up plan on Monday.
Deaths, I feel we are at the mercy of the nursing homes. If it is really as bad as some officials say, it is a roll if the dice with how bad that gets. If that is under control, I don't see much of a spike coming at all. But one or two facilities blow up and that is shot.
Doing a dive into NYC stats. Only 5% of cases are under 45 (and virtually all with underlying conditions). And less than 2% of all cases have no underlying conditions.
So the Moore County health department is washing it's hands of testing people that may not be infected because they believe it is likely that the virus is present in all facilities? This sure seems like a poor (and extremely callous) decision to me. Glad I don't have a relative in a Moore County nursing home.Wayland said:
"The Moore County Health Department has determined that further testing in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities in the county isn't necessary, as the coronavirus is likely present in all such facilities."
If we are throwing in the towel on nursing homes, let's just get back to opening it all up.
Exactly my thoughts. I responded to him similarly --- using his own tweet from just a few days ago that sounded "end of world'ish".Daviewolf83 said:That is just a statement to get eyeballs and generate hysteria. Quite frankly, it is sloppy journalism. I just responded to his Tweet with the following:Packchem91 said:
Here is why media members get so disrespected. From Brett Jensen today. No context, no follow ups to justify how this compares to the projections, etc. He should have labeled it "Breaking News" in all red cap font
Over the last 4 days, NC's deaths have gone up 124% from 33 to 74 and those currently hospitalized have gone up 57% from 270 to 423. @wbtradio #StayConnected
While every death is tragic, I would point out that total deaths are well below what the IHME model projected for this same date. While the number of those hospitalized is up, the rate of increase in hospitalization is basically flat (look at the logarithmic plots of data).
packgrad said:
I haven't read the book in 30 years but Apple/google's test and trace sounds like the Scarlet Letter. I'm certainly not signing up for any government tracking until we know more about the virus. The whole time we have been led astray with doomsday forecasts, losing civil liberties (out of caution and argumentally the correct decision), and giving the government a lot more say in my daily life than I am comfortable giving them. I am not voluntarily giving this type of tracking information until we know more about this virus, and how proper the virus reaction was.
You are stunningly naive if you think this isn't already happening. The only thing you're opting into is being given the data that is already being tracked. The mic on your phone is constantly on to give you targeted ads on google and facebook. You don't think they also track where you've been too? Get real.
European countries with similar corona profiles to NC (population, death toll, etc) are starting to loosen restrictions next week even as NC government looks to keep shutting things down.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Czech Republic is one of those countries that I have been following since they were so celebrated for their early restrictions. And here they are looking to ease thing up next week.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Czech Republic is one of those countries that I have been following since they were so celebrated for their early restrictions. And here they are looking to ease thing up next week.
griff17matt said:packgrad said:
I haven't read the book in 30 years but Apple/google's test and trace sounds like the Scarlet Letter. I'm certainly not signing up for any government tracking until we know more about the virus. The whole time we have been led astray with doomsday forecasts, losing civil liberties (out of caution and argumentally the correct decision), and giving the government a lot more say in my daily life than I am comfortable giving them. I am not voluntarily giving this type of tracking information until we know more about this virus, and how proper the virus reaction was.
You are stunningly naive if you think this isn't already happening. The only thing you're opting into is being given the data that is already being tracked. The mic on your phone is constantly on to give you targeted ads on google and facebook. You don't think they also track where you've been too? Get real.
I am well aware of a phone's tracking ability. I am also aware of the phone listening to what I'm talking about and ads representing that on my phone. I am also aware that we don't know how proper our response has been to this. If you're comfortable giving the government the authority to say you need to quarantine for 2 weeks because you shopped in the same Home Depot as someone that tested positive, go right ahead. Nobody is stopping you. It's voluntary. I am not. The essential stores are nothing but Petrie dishes now. Everyone would be required to self quarantine.
Modeler says we are on the downslope. He's been spot on this whole time so I trust this information.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/coronavirus-model-ihme-worst-is-behind-us
https://www.foxnews.com/media/coronavirus-model-ihme-worst-is-behind-us
4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
7% positive test results while only testing those with most of the symptoms or most at risk...
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Thanks for posting the updates Wayland.Wayland said:4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)Wayland said:4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)Wayland said:Wayland said:4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204
4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184
4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)
NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259
Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.
15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)
2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.
NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271
Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?
Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.
NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261
Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age
4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270
NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354
Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.
The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.
NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987
NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809
Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65
16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645
A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.
23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.
7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.
NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393
Hospitalizations down.
Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)
2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.
I believe the media are still counting the deaths for 2 people who were citizens from outside NC, but they died while passing through NC. Since these deaths are likely being included by other states, NC is not including them. Here are the good news statistics:
Hospitalizations:
-61 people
Deaths:
6 people <== Down from 9 the previous day and 12 two days before
Daily New Cases:
404 new cases <-- Up from 257 New Daily Cases reported the previous day
I suspect the increase in New Daily Cases is directly linked to the nursing home increases and not the general population seeing increases. I have included three graphs. One shows Total Deaths to the four IHME Model updates, one showing the logarithmic plot of hospitalizations, and one showing a logarithmic plot of New Daily Cases. I do expect case rates to begin leveling back off over the next few days.
Model Comparison to Actual Deaths:
Logarithmic Plot of Hospitalizations:
Logarithmic Plot of Daily New Cases:
Maybe this has already been discussed, and apologies if so, but as I was sitting in the car at the grocery store looking through some of the information I saw that a "outbreak" at congregated living spaces is when there are two or more laboratory confirmed cases. Two cases. Such hyperbolic language for such a low threshold.
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