Counties must be reporting somewhere around midday as well, because media numbers always spike right after DHHS posts their daily number.

I found it interesting how quickly WRAL was to update their deaths above the DHHS total, but still haven't updated the hospitalization number.

packgrad said:

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Maybe this has already been discussed, and apologies if so, but as I was sitting in the car at the grocery store looking through some of the information I saw that a "outbreak" at congregated living spaces is when there are two or more laboratory confirmed cases. Two cases. Such hyperbolic language for such a low threshold.

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While I tend to agree with some regard, if there are at least 2 cases in one of these places, there are likely more. And due to the close contact, these facilities are ripe to spread disease to at risk people. I'd rather they keep nursing home residents alive because their deaths are what is keeping the state locked down.

Wayland said:

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packgrad said:

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Maybe this has already been discussed, and apologies if so, but as I was sitting in the car at the grocery store looking through some of the information I saw that a "outbreak" at congregated living spaces is when there are two or more laboratory confirmed cases. Two cases. Such hyperbolic language for such a low threshold.

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While I tend to agree with some regard, if there are at least 2 cases in one of these places, there are likely more. And due to the close contact, these facilities are ripe to spread disease to at risk people. I'd rather they keep nursing home residents alive because their deaths are what is keeping the state locked down.

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I don't understand how the 2 person threshold for "outbreak" keeps them alive. I agree the deaths there skew the numbers and are locking the state down. I don't think reporting another "outbreak" helps the situation when an "outbreak" can be as little as 2 people.

New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/bay-area-coronavirus-deaths-signs-of-earlier-spread-california

WRAL's headline right now "Latest on coronavirus as NC has largest single-day rise in cases, with 300 new confirmed"

What they don't say is that most of those cases are from tests done 4+ days ago.

Wayland said:

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WRAL's headline right now "Latest on coronavirus as NC has largest single-day rise in cases, with 300 new confirmed"

What they don't say is that most of those cases are from tests done 4+ days ago.

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This is why I prefer to track hospitalizations over case reports. Due to delays in case reporting and the limited amount of testing being done in NC, it is a much better measure of the disease's progression. I would like to see them split out ICU numbers, but of NC this is likely too hard for the mental midgets running the government's response.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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WRAL's headline right now "Latest on coronavirus as NC has largest single-day rise in cases, with 300 new confirmed"

What they don't say is that most of those cases are from tests done 4+ days ago.

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This is why I prefer to track hospitalizations over case reports. Due to delays in case reporting and the limited amount of testing being done in NC, it is a much better measure of the disease's progression. I would like to see them split out ICU numbers, but of NC this is likely too hard for the mental midgets running the government's response.

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I have been looking around at data. Some European countries do an amazing job with their detailed breakdown. There are even a couple states that are solid. The Mass daily report gives you good insight on every fatality and even where every test was done and what the positive and negative at each site. Started to bum me out at the level of detail NC provides.

So far, the numbers look down for the day but I won't get excited about that unless it continues through Tuesday. As for the state of NC doing anything correct. With the moronic governor we have in charge, everything the state does will be bass ackwards and absolutely terrible. How that man was elected is beyond me but hopefully, someone in the state government can rattle his head enough so the 2 BB's he has between using ears actually connect and make a good decision.

Maybe some good news.....

Michael S. Rogers is Assistant Professor of Surgery at Harvard Medical School and Research Associate at Boston Children's Hospital. He writes:

I thought I'd point out a recent report that has what could be very good news. There has long been the question of how many people are getting very mild cases of COVID-19. Up until now we've been relying on a test for the presence of virus (a PCR test for viral RNA). Those data have suggested that approximately half of infected individuals get symptomatic disease. However, those tests cannot identify individuals who have been infected and successfully cleared the virus. By contrast, antibody tests (also known as serological tests) can identify such people.
This preliminary study is the first of its kind and looks at a village that was at "ground zero" for the German epidemic. The authors developed a high-specificity (>99%) test for anti-virus antibodies and tested a significant fraction of the village. They found that 7x as many people were positive for antibodies as were positive for viral RNA15% of the total population. There's good reason to think these results could be approximately representative of the rest of the world. The case-fatality rate based on RNA tests is in the range observed in the non-overwhelmed world.
This is a small and preliminary study, but if the results are borne out by others, then the mortality rates from even the direst models have to be divided by at least 7. That's still a lot of deaths, but (as the authors of the report indicate) it means that milder mitigation measures may be sufficient once we've got the hotspots (like New York City) under control. That would be very good news for the economy. Ronald Bailey's write-up for Reason may be more accessible to a general audience and is posted here.

^ Multiple experts have been speculating that the infection rate was much higher, and thus the death rate much lower, for some time now. Hopefully more studies are done, and get reported on, that show this is the case.

Agree with Steve. Couple of you guys doing very good work.

I think Fauci's time is up. Watched a clip of him on CNN this morning talking about how it can come back in November (obviously we understand the political direction a party wants to take on this now). All that guy does is fear monger.

Not as much interested in the numbers today but moreso in the numbers tomorrow and Tuesday. Really hoping to see a drop for several days in a row to see some light at the end of the tunnel. This this is going to come back at the end of the year. The hope is that by that time, we have a lot more info to go on. I love hearing Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci speak the news conferences. They come at it from a scientific angle and not a political angle. I tend to lower the volume or even mute it at times when Trump or Pence come on because it is political with them both. Would much prefer to listen to the non political angle of things. The numbers have certainly leveled off over the past 3-4 days. My hope is that continues.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

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4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

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4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

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4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

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4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

---

4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645

A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.

23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.

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4/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:38am)

NC Cases*
4312
NC Deaths**
80
Currently Hospitalized
362
Completed Tests
60393

Hospitalizations down.

Media reporting 84 deaths (so still a gap in reporting there)

2 more Nursing Homes 1 more Residential to add to outbreaks.

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4/12/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:45am)

NC Cases*
4520
NC Deaths**
81
Currently Hospitalized
331
Completed Tests
62139

Looks like counties are super slow getting data to the states, or media is overcounting since they are closing to 90 in their count. Hospitalizations drop again.

Still I want to see the breakdown in patient origin. How many of these are coming out of residential facilities or nursing homes.

Outbreaks: 28 Nursing Homes, 7 Residential Facilities, 6 Correctional, 1 Other.

NC has 2 ventilators for everyone currently in hospital for Covid available....

So we had 6 deaths in NC yesterday. According to the predictions, it was supposed to have been 16.

Still running well below the projected numbers.

Pacfanweb said:

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So we had 6 deaths in NC yesterday. According to the predictions, it was supposed to have been 16.

Still running well below the projected numbers.

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Worldometer had 3 yesterday and 6 the day before. Either way still way below that trend line and as I mentioned previously a lot of these deaths are now coming out of half rate nursing homes now.

I expect a 'catch up' day tomorrow in the DHHS numbers. WRAL is already to 91, they are again really happy to post new deaths before updating lower hospitalizations. I bet they have a party when NC gets to 100 with a HUGGGGEEEE headline.

"12:10 p.m.: A Pittsboro nursing facility, the Laurels of Chatham, just reported that 57 people from the facilty have tested positive for coronavirus. The nursing home had previously reported six cases but confirmed 51 more after the community was tested on April 10. To protect residents' privacy, no additional information about the confirmed cases will be shared."

Mass testing/positives in Congregate facilities is where a lot of these cases are coming in. Also super high risk population. NC failed where it needed.

Yes

Wayland said:

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Pacfanweb said:

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So we had 6 deaths in NC yesterday. According to the predictions, it was supposed to have been 16.

Still running well below the projected numbers.

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Worldometer had 3 yesterday and 6 the day before. Either way still way below that trend line and as I mentioned previously a lot of these deaths are now coming out of half rate nursing homes now.

I expect a 'catch up' day tomorrow in the DHHS numbers. WRAL is already to 91, they are again really happy to post new deaths before updating lower hospitalizations. I bet they have a party when NC gets to 100 with a HUGGGGEEEE headline.

"12:10 p.m.: A Pittsboro nursing facility, the Laurels of Chatham, just reported that 57 people from the facilty have tested positive for coronavirus. The nursing home had previously reported six cases but confirmed 51 more after the community was tested on April 10. To protect residents' privacy, no additional information about the confirmed cases will be shared."

Mass testing/positives in Congregate facilities is where a lot of these cases are coming in. Also super high risk population. NC failed where it needed.

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Yeah, there's a nursing home in Louisburg that has 33 cases currently.

packgrad said:

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Yes

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At least you're honest but wow.

Wayland said:

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Pacfanweb said:

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So we had 6 deaths in NC yesterday. According to the predictions, it was supposed to have been 16.

Still running well below the projected numbers.

---

Worldometer had 3 yesterday and 6 the day before. Either way still way below that trend line and as I mentioned previously a lot of these deaths are now coming out of half rate nursing homes now.

I expect a 'catch up' day tomorrow in the DHHS numbers. WRAL is already to 91, they are again really happy to post new deaths before updating lower hospitalizations. I bet they have a party when NC gets to 100 with a HUGGGGEEEE headline.

"12:10 p.m.: A Pittsboro nursing facility, the Laurels of Chatham, just reported that 57 people from the facilty have tested positive for coronavirus. The nursing home had previously reported six cases but confirmed 51 more after the community was tested on April 10. To protect residents' privacy, no additional information about the confirmed cases will be shared."

Mass testing/positives in Congregate facilities is where a lot of these cases are coming in. Also super high risk population. NC failed where it needed.

---

One note, on the NCDHHS site says deaths reported must be lab verified for Covid-19 to be included in their totals. I suspect a couple of things are going on. The state is only reporting deaths after they get lab verification (something I do not believe the news media is doing) and I expect given it is Easter, reports may have been delayed.

I expect a jump in case reports and deaths tomorrow, but I still expect deaths to be below the latest forecast. The Mean deaths predicted for tomorrow (4/9 model) is 17. Mean deaths today were projected to be 16 by the same model.

I also agree the one area the state has failed is in protecting people in nursing homes. This is the one population we knew at the onset is most at risk when they catch the virus. I really wish we had some way to see cases in and out of these facilities.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

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At least you're honest but wow.

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What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

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At least you're honest but wow.

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What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

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What's wow is the fact that you said because you don't agree with what someone says, they should be removed from their position. That's what is wow about your statement. The fact that you truly believe that if someone doesn't do or say what you want them to do or say, should be removed from whatever position they have is imo wow. Hope that clears it up for you.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

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At least you're honest but wow.

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What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

---

What's wow is the fact that you said because you don't agree with what someone says, they should be removed from their position. That's what is wow about your statement. The fact that you truly believe that if someone doesn't do or say what you want them to do or say, should be removed from whatever position they have is imo wow. Hope that clears it up for you.

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Isn't that typically why people want someone removed? Because they have different thoughts on something. What is your preferred reason if it's not that?

Do you vote in elections?

Welp. Butner prison just had its first corona death, we better keep hiding inside because of another congregate death.

"4:30 p.m.: An inmate at the federal prison in Butner died of COVID-19 on Saturday, the Federal Bureau of Prisons announced. Charles Rootes, who was 81, went into respiratory failure and was pronounced dead by hospital staff. Rootes was serving a 99-year sentence and had been in custody at the facility in Butner since October of 2019."

When you have nothing good to say, say nothing.

packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

---

At least you're honest but wow.

---

What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

---

What's wow is the fact that you said because you don't agree with what someone says, they should be removed from their position. That's what is wow about your statement. The fact that you truly believe that if someone doesn't do or say what you want them to do or say, should be removed from whatever position they have is imo wow. Hope that clears it up for you.

---

Isn't that typically why people want someone removed? Because they have different thoughts on something. What is your preferred reason if it's not that?

Do you vote in elections?

---

There is a difference in people having different thoughts and you just outright wanting someone gone because they don't say what you want. The man is a doctor. He says what the science says. Maybe he isn't far right enough for you but one of the most noted doctors in the world shouldn't be removed because he doesn't follow your line of thinking. I certainly do vote in elections. I am an independent that votes both right and left. You answered yes that you wants someone removed because they didn't say what you wanted them to say. They may have and more then likely were staying fact. It's just not the fact you want to hear so let's remove him!!!

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

---

At least you're honest but wow.

---

What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

---

What's wow is the fact that you said because you don't agree with what someone says, they should be removed from their position. That's what is wow about your statement. The fact that you truly believe that if someone doesn't do or say what you want them to do or say, should be removed from whatever position they have is imo wow. Hope that clears it up for you.

---

Isn't that typically why people want someone removed? Because they have different thoughts on something. What is your preferred reason if it's not that?

Do you vote in elections?

---

There is a difference in people having different thoughts and you just outright wanting someone gone because they don't say what you want. The man is a doctor. He says what the science says. Maybe he isn't far right enough for you but one of the most noted doctors in the world shouldn't be removed because he doesn't follow your line of thinking. I certainly do vote in elections. I am an independent that votes both right and left. You answered yes that you wants someone removed because they didn't say what you wanted them to say. They may have and more then likely were staying fact. It's just not the fact you want to hear so let's remove him!!!

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You think he was saying "fact"? Jesus man. How much evidence do you need that he wasn't? He has NOT been accurate. He is not speaking based on what science says. He is speaking based on his opinion. That has been wrong a lot.

Lol on the "far right" stuff too.

packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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Yes

---

At least you're honest but wow.

---

What is "wow" about that? It's not a unique thought that Fauci has been incredibly wrong this entire process. He sticks to his guns and promotes fear. Possible treatments or solutions, other than what he suggests, are not viable in his eyes. Also, that he is some type of cult hero for people is not something I get at all.

---

What's wow is the fact that you said because you don't agree with what someone says, they should be removed from their position. That's what is wow about your statement. The fact that you truly believe that if someone doesn't do or say what you want them to do or say, should be removed from whatever position they have is imo wow. Hope that clears it up for you.

---

Isn't that typically why people want someone removed? Because they have different thoughts on something. What is your preferred reason if it's not that?

Do you vote in elections?

---

There is a difference in people having different thoughts and you just outright wanting someone gone because they don't say what you want. The man is a doctor. He says what the science says. Maybe he isn't far right enough for you but one of the most noted doctors in the world shouldn't be removed because he doesn't follow your line of thinking. I certainly do vote in elections. I am an independent that votes both right and left. You answered yes that you wants someone removed because they didn't say what you wanted them to say. They may have and more then likely were staying fact. It's just not the fact you want to hear so let's remove him!!!

---

You think he was saying "fact"? Jesus man. How much evidence do you need that he wasn't? He has NOT been accurate. He is not speaking based on what science says. He is speaking based on his opinion. That has been wrong a lot.

Lol on the "far right" stuff too.

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You will not be removed for having an opinion and thoughts different then others here. Life is great that way. Happy Easter!

I have a friend whose mother went into the infected Louisburg nursing home a month ago. She's been tested and so far tests negative. While grateful she's neg. so far, he and his family are about to lose their minds over the situation.

I, too, worry because my mother is in a facility in Johnston County. She has multiple health issues including cancer, which was just diagnosed as terminal stage 3. If her facility gets infected, and she does as a result, I have no doubt it will take her on out.

Mormad said:

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Fauci isn't in the minority when he says he thinks there will be a second wave in November. Everything I receive from different medical sources every day predicts the same thing.

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And a month ago 2.2 million Americans were going to die, and the state of NC released an analysis partly based on the report this week.

There may be a second wave, but what does it look like. Is NY pushing HI at this point, their infection rate must be insane. Or at least a critical mass infection rate.

Maybe on the next wave we will actually protect nursing homes unlike this time.

2 vents available for every hospitalized covid pt isn't enough for my comfort. That is enough vents if we could assume there would be no other patients who needed to be ventilated for any other condition. But, our "regular" or "typical" patients' need for ventilators remains. Certainly can't open up hospitals for elective business given that number.