Wayland said:

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Watching the NJ press conference, they have an almost 5% positive test rate statewide in their nursing homes. That is crazy. That is 5% of the total population not 5% of the facilities.

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And I assume they'd test everyone in a nursing home, not just those with symptoms?

Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Watching the NJ press conference, they have an almost 5% positive test rate statewide in their nursing homes. That is crazy. That is 5% of the total population not 5% of the facilities.

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And I assume they'd test everyone in a nursing home, not just those with symptoms?

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They have only tested 100,000 total, so no way they have tested everyone in nursing homes. Maybe they have tested everyone in affected facilities. But that still doesn't account for negatives or post infection or non affected facilities. But I don't have a breakdown.

Didn't see it, but got from a friend that the Ohio gov press conference today stated they had flattened the curve and would begin presenting a reopening plan next week. He was one of the first to put in very restrictive measures....but happy to hear some forward thinking.

Based on latest numbers from the NC DHHS website:

Hospital Beds: 39% open capacity (6,895 available beds)
ICU Beds: 23% open capacity (754 available beds)
Ventilators: 77% open capacity (2,283 available ventilators)

One thing I can not tell from the DHHS numbers is how many patients on ventilators are Covid patients. This would go a long way in predicting how many people could eventually die from Covid-19, since reportedly people on a ventilator have a much higher probability of death.

I will also point out that DHHS notes that the capacity and utilization numbers are only from 81% of the hospitals in NC. I would have thought every hospital in NC had to report on these critical capacity numbers.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Based on latest numbers from the NC DHHS website:

Hospital Beds: 39% open capacity (6,895 available beds)
ICU Beds: 23% open capacity (754 available beds)
Ventilators: 77% open capacity (2,283 available ventilators)

One thing I can not tell from the DHHS numbers is how many patients on ventilators are Covid patients. This would go a long way in predicting how many people could eventually die from Covid-19, since reportedly people on a ventilator have a much higher probability of death.

I will also point out that DHHS notes that the capacity and utilization numbers are only from 81% of the hospitals in NC. I would have thought every hospital in NC had to report on these critical capacity numbers.

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I have seen the daily reporting percentage from hospitals vary from ~60%->~90%. May be able to calculate the estimated ventilator usage if you can extrapolate from NY numbers. They used to put out those numbers, but I don't have them in front of me.

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Watching the NJ press conference, they have an almost 5% positive test rate statewide in their nursing homes. That is crazy. That is 5% of the total population not 5% of the facilities.

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And I assume they'd test everyone in a nursing home, not just those with symptoms?

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They have only tested 100,000 total, so no way they have tested everyone in nursing homes. Maybe they have tested everyone in affected facilities. But that still doesn't account for negatives or post infection or non affected facilities. But I don't have a breakdown.

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Sorry, I know they haven't tested all nursing homes; I meant, if you're going to test in a nursing home, you'd test all patients/staff in that nursing home....would seem silly to skip past those feeling well now because of the inherent risk of spread. Just changes the context of the infected rate if you're testing all versus just those who've been symptomatic

adding fuel to the fire about bad data models driving policy for corona.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative

PossumJenkins said:

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Didn't see it, but got from a friend that the Ohio gov press conference today stated they had flattened the curve and would begin presenting a reopening plan next week. He was one of the first to put in very restrictive measures....but happy to hear some forward thinking.

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That sounds great - I hope that Governor Cooper is working hard to think about that because NC is projected to peak next week based on the IHME model. Who knows if the model is super accurate but its been the one everyone has pointed to thus far.

statefan91 said:

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PossumJenkins said:

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Didn't see it, but got from a friend that the Ohio gov press conference today stated they had flattened the curve and would begin presenting a reopening plan next week. He was one of the first to put in very restrictive measures....but happy to hear some forward thinking.

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That sounds great - I hope that Governor Cooper is working hard to think about that because NC is projected to peak next week based on the IHME model. Who knows if the model is super accurate but its been the one everyone has pointed to thus far.

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BTW - Roy's daily is on at 4pm today. Unfortunately, I am likely missing this one.

https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update

statefan91 said:

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PossumJenkins said:

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Didn't see it, but got from a friend that the Ohio gov press conference today stated they had flattened the curve and would begin presenting a reopening plan next week. He was one of the first to put in very restrictive measures....but happy to hear some forward thinking.

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That sounds great - I hope that Governor Cooper is working hard to think about that because NC is projected to peak next week based on the IHME model. Who knows if the model is super accurate but its been the one everyone has pointed to thus far.

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The IHME model has been revised three times. The peak for the mean daily deaths for the first run was on 4/23 (55.831 deaths on this date), the second version had the peak on 4/15 (30.251 deaths on this date) and the third version 4/15 (27.453 deaths on this date). These are the points where the daily number of deaths reaches its highest daily rate. Beyond these dates, the daily deaths starts to decline.

Near useless presser today by Roy.

New retail rules:

"Retailers will have to take the following steps:

• Limit the number of customers inside at any one time to 20 percent of allowed capacity under fire regulations, or five people per 1,000 square feet.
• Maintain 6-foot separation between customers at checkout lines and other areas where customers congregate.
• Routinely disinfect stores.

Retailers also are encouraged to take the following steps:

• Limit aisles to one-way traffic.
• Install plastic shields to separate cashiers from customers.
• Set aside specific hours for senior citizens to shop.
• Make hand sanitizer available for customers and staff."

Couple good media questions about just *** were nursing homes doing until now that an order had to be issued. Cooper danced around the issue saying it was hard on nursing homes that they had to limit contact/visitors. No kidding, it is hard, but these are the people that are most likely to die here, yes they need to be in LOCKDOWN.

Other than that nothing new. State policymakers still can't see what a fortunate position NC is in right now that we could look to test/trace and continue to focus on the non issue of hospital capacity.

Wayland said:

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Near useless presser today by Roy.

New retail rules:

"Retailers will have to take the following steps:

• Limit the number of customers inside at any one time to 20 percent of allowed capacity under fire regulations, or five people per 1,000 square feet.
• Maintain 6-foot separation between customers at checkout lines and other areas where customers congregate.
• Routinely disinfect stores.

Retailers also are encouraged to take the following steps:

• Limit aisles to one-way traffic.
• Install plastic shields to separate cashiers from customers.
• Set aside specific hours for senior citizens to shop.
• Make hand sanitizer available for customers and staff."

Couple good media questions about just *** were nursing homes doing until now that an order had to be issued. Cooper danced around the issue saying it was hard on nursing homes that they had to limit contact/visitors. No kidding, it is hard, but these are the people that are most likely to die here, yes they need to be in LOCKDOWN.

Other than that nothing new. State policymakers still can't see what a fortunate position NC is in right now that we could look to test/trace and continue to focus on the non issue of hospital capacity.

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Sadly, I am not shocked at all. This governor has proven to be an absolute moron from day 1 and that won't change with this. What it may do, is open the eyes of some to his absolute idiocy. When farmers suffer from his stupidity, most don't care. When an entire state suffers from his stupidity, maybe more will.

So while others begin to look towards how to open up...we decide to double down with more retail restrictions

PossumJenkins said:

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So while others begin to look towards how to open up...we decide to double down with more retail restrictions

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The things listed above are things I've been seeing for over a week in most stores like Sam's, BJ's, Costco, Grocery Stores and Home Depot and Lowes HP. Nothing earth shattering here

I think that illustrates exactly my point. You say it's not earth shattering...you've grown accustomed to it. It's what everyone's doing...but no one has actually determined it's needed?

And I'm not attacking you with the "your"...just as a society we're saying...ok well everyone else is doing it...and become accustomed to it...while still no one has proven the efficacy. Yet we all remain in lockdown as day by day the egregious models are shown to be massively incorrect.

I'm ok with the retailer restrictions because I've already noticed people in masks not being as good about social distancing.

However, Cooper needs to be coming up with a plan to get us open or we'll be in this purgatory for a long time

statefan91 said:

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I'm ok with the retailer restrictions because I've already noticed people in masks not being as good about social distancing.

However, Cooper needs to be coming up with a plan to get us open or we'll be in this purgatory for a long time

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I think people are going to start taking things into their own hands if we don't see a definite way out sooner instead of later

Yep, agree completely

I definitely agree that much of the measures in place are governors, mayors,etc. trying to copy or outdo the orders that came before them. I said it earlier in the thread, but the US isn't a homogenous place, it's much more like a collection of smaller countries. Different regions, states, and cities pose way different logistical concerns due to geography, population density, diversity, age, etc. What works for New York City may not be what's needed in East Podunk, NC. The people in charge are so scared ****less of getting blamed if there are negative consequences in their area that they may have gone too far, but they will never admit that.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I definitely agree that much of the measures in place are governors, mayors,etc. trying to copy or outdo the orders that came before them. I said it earlier in the thread, but the US isn't a homogenous place, it's much more like a collection of smaller countries. Different regions, states, and cities pose way different logistical concerns due to geography, population density, diversity, age, etc. What works for New York City may not be what's needed in East Podunk, NC. The people in charge are so scared ****less of getting blamed if there are negative consequences in their area that they may have gone too far, but they will never admit that.

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The vast majority of the resources should be going to protecting, isolating congregate facilities/nursing homes. The government has failed to protect those communities as it is despite a stay at home because they are too worried about the wrong things.

The rest of us should be released back with test and trace and surveillance testing. If capacity begins to become an issue and an outbreak isn't isolated then shut **** down... but until then time to move on.

Some encouraging news on a search for a treatment for the Coronavirus. The info is a few days old, so there are likely even more clinical tests underway.

New York has more announced coronavirus cases than any country in the world.

acslater1344 said:

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PossumJenkins said:

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Didn't see it, but got from a friend that the Ohio gov press conference today stated they had flattened the curve and would begin presenting a reopening plan next week. He was one of the first to put in very restrictive measures....but happy to hear some forward thinking.

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Good. I hope others, NC included, start to follow suit soon. I'm not saying we should have the same timeframe for opening back up, but we HAVE to start talking about the plan and what it looks like.

Public sentiment is about to start shifting in a major way over the next 10 days or so. We're ALL watching the numbers, we've all seen how much the projections have changed and we're all starting to wonder how and when we start living our lives again. WHAT IS THE F****** PLAN!?

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Based on yesterday's governor's order on limiting retail, the plan is to add more restrictions that will make things harder to walk back.

I listened to "Up First" on NPR and another one NPR is doing regarding daily updates.

Up First mentioned that the CDC Director is expecting the peak in the next couple weeks, also mentioned wanting to plan for the go forward and upping the antibody testing

The other one mentioned that the government is planning on a very large workforce to help implement some form of contract tracing and planning so that we can contain future waves

Both good to hear coming from a national perspective

I read a fascinating and very insightful article last night in The Atlantic on the search for a Coronavirus treatment. It mentions Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesvir, two drugs being studied and the mechanism behind how they can help, plus additional drugs and treatment ideas. I highly recommend everyone reading this very insightful article.

The Best Hopes for a Coronavirus Drug

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

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4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

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4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

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4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

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4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

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4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

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4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

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4/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3908
NC Deaths**
74
Currently Hospitalized
423
Completed Tests
57645

A 2.5% positive test rate is insanely low.

23 Nursing Homes, 6 Residential Care Facilities, 5 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

7 Additional nursing home since YESTERDAY (and 2 additional residential care). Just goes to show you how ineffective this has all been when we aren't actually protecting the most vulnerable. Time for a shift in strategy.

As you know, I have been tracking the Covid-19 data for North Carolina for the past few weeks. I included a graph that compares the total number of actual deaths against the IHME model (3 different versions). I also have graphs for other statistics (daily case rates and hospitalizations) I will try to post soon

That definitely looks good - although it will likely be used to extend the stay at home order into May as to give enough time to have things level out.

The following graph is a logarithmic plot of New Daily Covid-19 Cases, showing how it is trending flat. The advantage of the logarithmic plot is that is shows the rate of change from one day to the next. It is often difficult to see this information when you just look at the number of cases.




The graph below is a logarithmic plot of the number of Covid-19 patients reported as hospitalized on a daily basis. You can see the rate of hospitalizations is trending to being flat, meaning the growth rate in the number of people being hospitalized is starting to flatten out.



The last graph shows the number of people testing positive and the number testing negative. From this graph, you can see the huge number of people testing negative. Under current guidelines, these are people who supposedly had symptoms of the Coronavirus.

Davie...thanks for being a nerd and doing these. It helps people like me to be able to visualize these things.

Assume you mean huge number of people testing negative.

Also - did you get any response from any reporters?