I agree with you. It is a stop gap.

How would people stop following the orders though? There's no where to go.

Unless you're talking about gathering more than 10 people together. Businesses hands are tied.

In short? By keeping those people at home. If it's not a problem to tell 330 million spread out all over the country to stay at home, it shouldn't be a problem to tell the one place that is driving the nationwide numbers to do it for a few more weeks. I just don't think this is a nationwide crisis and the solutions should reflect that.

metcalfmafia said:

---

How would people stop following the orders though? There's no where to go.

Unless you're talking about gathering more than 10 people together. Businesses hands are tied.

---

I can't wait to receive my $1200 and have nowhere to spend it at

Everpack said:

---

In short? By keeping those people at home. If it's not a problem to tell 330 million spread out all over the country to stay at home, it shouldn't be a problem to tell the one place that is driving the nationwide numbers to do it for a few more weeks. I just don't think this is a nationwide crisis and the solutions should reflect that.

---

NYC should be shut down till beginning of June IMO. Everywhere else could restart in mid-May.

King Leary said:

---

metcalfmafia said:

---

How would people stop following the orders though? There's no where to go.

Unless you're talking about gathering more than 10 people together. Businesses hands are tied.

---

I can't wait to receive my $1200 and have nowhere to spend it at

---

I'm saving it in case the layoff monster comes for me.

wnosaj83 said:

---

Apologies. My intent was not be combative or insinuate any sentiment, a foreign concept on this board at times so i understand the conclusion you came to. I can think of legitimate reasons why there is not universal or widespread testing at this point. I was simply asking a question directed at a professional who seems to know much more on the crisis at hand than I do. I hope that there are good reasons and that there is a plan in place for increased testing. I wish someone would tell us more about those reasons and that plan.

---

Apologies not necessary. Sorry if I came across like I thought you were being combative. I really didn't think you were. I've been really impressed with this thread... Lots of knowledge, lots of reasonable thoughts, lots of time spent trying to understand, and level headed discussion despite some mild disagreement. You know much more than you think if you've spent any time reading this stuff. Doctors dont know it all. Wish I did tho. Best wishes to you.

Saw a tweet on this subject, but can someone explain the rationale of keeping parks and greenways open and closing beaches?

metcalfmafia said:

---

Saw a tweet on this subject, but can someone explain the rationale of keeping parks and greenways open and closing beaches?

---

Local government decisions? My parents are in Dare County right now and go walking on the beach everyday, I don't know if they have less restrictions because access to the county is limited compared to other NC beaches.

I think it's because there have been beach parties that have been all over the news. That would be my guess. My brother lives in Wilmington and they shut down the boat ramps, he thinks, because of a big island party that happened somewhere down there.

Edit... doesn't explain parks though as they have made the news as well. Should have read better the first time.

metcalfmafia said:

---

Saw a tweet on this subject, but can someone explain the rationale of keeping parks and greenways open and closing beaches?

---

Charlotte shut down all the car access to parks and greenways. Now it's really only people that can reach them on foot or bike.

statefan91 said:

---

metcalfmafia said:

---

Saw a tweet on this subject, but can someone explain the rationale of keeping parks and greenways open and closing beaches?

---

Charlotte shut down all the car access to parks and greenways. Now it's really only people that can reach them on foot or bike.

---

Raleigh hasn't. Drove to Fred Fletcher park yesterday.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

---

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning. 82% of deaths > 65

16 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care Facilities, 4 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other with outbreaks.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

---

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning.

---

Part of the nonsense outrage from Charlotte government and media is not receiving federal support from FEMA for a 3000 bed field hospital, now revised down to 600, again outage because no support from federal government. There aren't 600 people hospitalized in the state according to these numbers.

Everpack said:

---

In short? By keeping those people at home. If it's not a problem to tell 330 million spread out all over the country to stay at home, it shouldn't be a problem to tell the one place that is driving the nationwide numbers to do it for a few more weeks. I just don't think this is a nationwide crisis and the solutions should reflect that.

---

But how do you stop that? How do you stop from a family loading in the car and driving to some resort that is now open (people in NYC are probably desperate to get away too).

I know...how long do you stop life for a relatively small %. I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but I think it's a reasonable concern.

**Of course, could say the same for all the take out restaurants and grocery stores where we are getting our food now -- who is to say the people preparing / serving us the food are not sick.

King Leary said:

---

metcalfmafia said:

---

How would people stop following the orders though? There's no where to go.

Unless you're talking about gathering more than 10 people together. Businesses hands are tied.

---

I can't wait to receive my $1200 and have nowhere to spend it at

---

Paying off the last piece of my car with mine. 3 year loan paid off in 12 months if it arrives soon.

You make the decision for yourself. If you're going to a resort, somebody there may be sick. If you're going to the grocery store, there may be a drunk driver. If you're going for a hike in the woods, you may twist your ankle on a tree root.

Awesome e-mail, please let us know if you get a response. Hope so.

IseWolf22 said:

---

King Leary said:

---

metcalfmafia said:

---

How would people stop following the orders though? There's no where to go.

Unless you're talking about gathering more than 10 people together. Businesses hands are tied.

---

I can't wait to receive my $1200 and have nowhere to spend it at

---

Paying off the last piece of my car with mine. 3 year loan paid off in 12 months if it arrives soon.

---

That's pretty nice right there!

Great letter! I hope it has some impact on the reporters.

Treasury Secretary said this morning he expects the country to reopen May 1st

packgrad said:

---

You make the decision for yourself. If you're going to a resort, somebody there may be sick. If you're going to the grocery store, there may be a drunk driver. If you're going for a hike in the woods, you may twist your ankle on a tree root.

---

Well, my wife actually just sprained her ankle when she stepped in a hole on a walk we were on...it's not the same as contracting the corona.

I agree in principle however. But there is no doubt we are in a case of "paralysis by analysis" on this virus.
We just had our first death in Union County last night -- a 70 yo with underlying conditions. I think of how big this county has become and think....that is a knit.

Davie -- great points (and seemingly questions that folks who's job it is to cover this situation would have already come up with)...unfortunately, many in the media are conditioned to 15-second soundbites....I'm not sure they make it to your 3rd para.

packgrad said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

---

4/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3651
NC Deaths**
65
Currently Hospitalized
398
Completed Tests
47809

Looks like deaths now align with media totals for the morning.

---

Part of the nonsense outrage from Charlotte government and media is not receiving federal support from FEMA for a 3000 bed field hospital, now revised down to 600, again outage because no support from federal government. There aren't 600 people hospitalized in the state according to these numbers.

---

Some good news in the numbers. The rate of hospitalizations has declined for the past two days and four out of the past five days. Hospitalizations on 4/7 are the only day that saw an increase and suspect it was due to increases over the weekend where reporting was delayed. Total deaths are running slightly below the mean number of deaths predicted for this date by the IHME model (4/7 model data). Last, in looking at a logarithmic plot of daily cases, the curve is definitely starting to flatten, meaning the rate of change from one day to the other is becoming very stable (ie., case rate increases are slowing).

NY deaths in at 799 today. Hospitalization rates continue to decline.

Just to throw an aside at the NC numbers as well. I believe I heard Cuomo say NY has over 18,000 hospitalized... compared to under 400 for NC... and we are treating the situations the same.

Along with the 30,000 ventilators NY said they needed, more beds were also needed. A convention center was converted to a military hospital and the USNS Comfort was dispatched. They are currently at less than 4% capacity. I get that people appreciate Cuomo's speaking at press conferences, but he deserves quite a bit of critique himself.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/07/javits-center-and-usns-comfort-have-a-combined-110-patients-1273409

packgrad said:

---

Along with the 30,000 ventilators NY said they needed, more beds were also needed. A convention center was converted to a military hospital and the USNS Comfort was dispatched. They are currently at less than 4% capacity. I get that people appreciate Cuomo's speaking at press conferences, but he deserves quite a bit of critique himself.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/07/javits-center-and-usns-comfort-have-a-combined-110-patients-1273409

---

I give him some slack on the hope for the best prepare for the worst since those early models were designed to scare and Italy did get overwhelmed.

Governments need to do a better job of handling variables in this situation. I think we all could have seen on day 1 that NC and NY (or even NJ which has fewer people than NC but is most population dense state) would have very different curves with regards to an outbreak.

packgrad said:

---

I think it's because there have been beach parties that have been all over the news. That would be my guess. My brother lives in Wilmington and they shut down the boat ramps, he thinks, because of a big island party that happened somewhere down there.

Edit... doesn't explain parks though as they have made the news as well. Should have read better the first time.

---

Masonboro island. It's a popular hangout spot anyway, but after they closed the beaches, the youngsters just moved their extended spring break out there. It's not really stopping people though, plenty of private docks and ramps for people to use. And to your point, the park by my house is absolutely packed with people today.

wilmwolf80 said:

---

packgrad said:

---

I think it's because there have been beach parties that have been all over the news. That would be my guess. My brother lives in Wilmington and they shut down the boat ramps, he thinks, because of a big island party that happened somewhere down there.

Edit... doesn't explain parks though as they have made the news as well. Should have read better the first time.

---

Masonboro island. It's a popular hangout spot anyway, but after they closed the beaches, the youngsters just moved their extended spring break out there. It's not really stopping people though, plenty of private docks and ramps for people to use. And to your point, the park by my house is absolutely packed with people today.

---

I think people are going to start the "crying wolf" thing, and look at the relative numbers across the Carolinas, and begin to go back outside. Kind of to packgrad's comment about "decide for yourself", especially if the weather remains beautiful, people are inclined to be active.
If rates were increasing, there would be a bigger detriment....will be interesting to see how long people heed the call.

**This is why I'm allowing neither of my college sons to go back to their houses in Wilmington and Columbia yet, even though their friends are there....because they'll end up in big groups almost out of habit.

I don't disagree on wanting to be prepared. I more mean his rhetoric about the situation. My numbers may be off, so apologies on that, but when receiving 4000 ventilators instead of 30,000, comments like the federal government can pick which 26,000 people are going to die. Desperately needing the additional bed space and "logistical and communication constraints" are preventing them from being used.

The president says a drug may treat the virus, based on anecdotal evidence, and is raked over the coals. NY governor and mayor scream from the mountain tops that people are going to die without help, then either can't put in place the procedures to use the help when provided, or don't need what they said they needed.

I get that everybody is doing the best they can with what they have. Just saying he/they deserve a bit of critique as well. I hope at some point our leaders can temper the hysteria, instead of thriving in it.

While this just may be perception or happenstance...i do believe there are more cars on the road in and around the Charlotte area today than i have seen over the last couple weeks.

From my anecdotal observations, the number of people out and about has steadily increased all week. The roads were a ghost town last week.

Definitely see an increase in the triangle as well. Certainly not as many as non quarantine days, but definitely an increase.

Watching the NJ press conference, they have an almost 5% positive test rate statewide in their nursing homes. That is crazy. That is 5% of the total population not 5% of the facilities.