Sorry, but IMO nursing homes and like facilities should not be used in how we should game plan for the general population.
metcalfmafia said:
Sorry, but IMO nursing homes and like facilities should not be used in how we should game plan for the general population.
jkpackfan said:
Thoughts on this? I've seen a few people of late echoing similar
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/?fbclid=IwAR02qBPVHAWfLXKFPO9d8B4H04gM5FYuSqnJbePPrH8W8QL3uMRfF6IaZh4
Mormad - Thank for taking the time to respond. I saw a doctor from Johns Hopkins on television earlier this evening talking about the focus doctors and scientist have on finding effective cures and treatments for the Coronavirus. This does not surprise me. I am certain doctors and scientist are leaving not stone unturned to find a solution to this virus and I appreciate everything everyone in the medical community are doing to deal with this pandemic.Mormad said:
The EPO idea might have some merit. It takes about 5 days to start working I think. Would be an interesting study.
Probably best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But to be unprepared or naive can have dire consequences.
I was reading a docs' forum today, and just like here, opinions are all over the place.
Anybody surprised that predictions change every day and/ or that previous predictions haven't held true with this pandemic is cray. Lots moving parts with varying degrees of population density, demographics, age/health, quality and quantity of care, breadth of care, compliance with recommendations, etc and a virus that is poorly understood. Predicting viral behavior is a tricky business.
Daviewolf83 said:
Here are a few points I have been thinking about tonight:
1. Nursing home patients and employees and workers in hospitals should be tested regularly. If any of these people are found to test positive, they should be isolated and anyone they are coming in contact with should also be isolated and assumed to be positive for the virus. The State of NC is actually experiencing a low number of cases and deaths when compared with other states and you could argue the state is not in crisis. As a result, NC has the perfect opportunity to now to put in place a policy of testing the most vulnerable populations in the state. I believe the government of NC needs to be working on and instituting these plans now.
2. Dr. Brix just said there are 18,000 of the Abbott Labs testing device spread throughout the country and they have millions of test kits ready to go. She said to date, a very small number of tests have been run through these machines and this is a problem. She said the machines and test kits currently deployed have the capacity to test every healthcare worker and do it with very fast results. She mentioned having a call tonight at 8pm with the heads of all the labs and it sounds like she is going to be pressing them hard on getting these tests going.
3. The media needs to be asking the governor and his staff if they know where these Abbott Labs machines are deployed in NC and if not, what are the doing to find them? If they do know where they are, the next question is do they have plans to use them to test people who treat and interface with the most vulnerable people in NC. They could and should be regularly testing healthcare workers (this has a two-fold benefit) and they should be testing all the staff in nursing homes and the nursing home population. People who have not been tested and cleared, should have zero access to a nursing home.
RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here are a few points I have been thinking about tonight:
1. Nursing home patients and employees and workers in hospitals should be tested regularly. If any of these people are found to test positive, they should be isolated and anyone they are coming in contact with should also be isolated and assumed to be positive for the virus. The State of NC is actually experiencing a low number of cases and deaths when compared with other states and you could argue the state is not in crisis. As a result, NC has the perfect opportunity to now to put in place a policy of testing the most vulnerable populations in the state. I believe the government of NC needs to be working on and instituting these plans now.
2. Dr. Brix just said there are 18,000 of the Abbott Labs testing device spread throughout the country and they have millions of test kits ready to go. She said to date, a very small number of tests have been run through these machines and this is a problem. She said the machines and test kits currently deployed have the capacity to test every healthcare worker and do it with very fast results. She mentioned having a call tonight at 8pm with the heads of all the labs and it sounds like she is going to be pressing them hard on getting these tests going.
3. The media needs to be asking the governor and his staff if they know where these Abbott Labs machines are deployed in NC and if not, what are the doing to find them? If they do know where they are, the next question is do they have plans to use them to test people who treat and interface with the most vulnerable people in NC. They could and should be regularly testing healthcare workers (this has a two-fold benefit) and they should be testing all the staff in nursing homes and the nursing home population. People who have not been tested and cleared, should have zero access to a nursing home.
That is to much to ask of Governor I Hate Farmers Cooper but hopefully someone in that government has the brains to do it.
No - for this test reagent is not a limiting factor. The limiting factor is to get people to collect samples and put them in the machine. According to Dr. Birx, they have the test kits that are utilized in the machine. You could tell by her comments that she was less than happy with the labs. They worked with Abbott Labs to develop a test that could give results in less than 15 minutes, it was rapidly approved by FDA, and it is not being used. As she said, they could have tested every healthcare worker in the US with the currently available tests and already have their results.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:Daviewolf83 said:
Here are a few points I have been thinking about tonight:
1. Nursing home patients and employees and workers in hospitals should be tested regularly. If any of these people are found to test positive, they should be isolated and anyone they are coming in contact with should also be isolated and assumed to be positive for the virus. The State of NC is actually experiencing a low number of cases and deaths when compared with other states and you could argue the state is not in crisis. As a result, NC has the perfect opportunity to now to put in place a policy of testing the most vulnerable populations in the state. I believe the government of NC needs to be working on and instituting these plans now.
2. Dr. Brix just said there are 18,000 of the Abbott Labs testing device spread throughout the country and they have millions of test kits ready to go. She said to date, a very small number of tests have been run through these machines and this is a problem. She said the machines and test kits currently deployed have the capacity to test every healthcare worker and do it with very fast results. She mentioned having a call tonight at 8pm with the heads of all the labs and it sounds like she is going to be pressing them hard on getting these tests going.
3. The media needs to be asking the governor and his staff if they know where these Abbott Labs machines are deployed in NC and if not, what are the doing to find them? If they do know where they are, the next question is do they have plans to use them to test people who treat and interface with the most vulnerable people in NC. They could and should be regularly testing healthcare workers (this has a two-fold benefit) and they should be testing all the staff in nursing homes and the nursing home population. People who have not been tested and cleared, should have zero access to a nursing home.
That is to much to ask of Governor I Hate Farmers Cooper but hopefully someone in that government has the brains to do it.
Isn't the limiting factor for test reagent, not Abbott testing machines, not test kits?
wnosaj83 said:
What would you consider a good reason?
Incompetence? Unable to multi-task, so focused on hospital capacity, testing not prioritized? Supply-chain issues? If there are supply issues, at least put the framework and structure in place to handle testing when those kinks are let up.Mormad said:wnosaj83 said:
What would you consider a good reason?
You can't think of legitimate reasons why there wouldn't be universal or widespread testing at this point?
I have a hard time assuming those who have shut us down to hopefully protect us (to the point that so many are complaining) are at the very same time willfully withholding (for some nefarious reason) available testing or treatment to those very same people they're working so hard to protect. You or we may not agree with their decisions, but we also aren't privy to the information they have. And I get it, you can then assume their info is just bad for whatever reason you want. We all view things through different lens, and that's why opinions are all over the board I guess.
Wayland said:Incompetence? Unable to multi-task, so focused on hospital capacity, testing not prioritized? Supply-chain issues? If there are supply issues, at least put the framework and structure in place to handle testing when those kinks are let up.Mormad said:wnosaj83 said:
What would you consider a good reason?
You can't think of legitimate reasons why there wouldn't be universal or widespread testing at this point?
I have a hard time assuming those who have shut us down to hopefully protect us (to the point that so many are complaining) are at the very same time willfully withholding (for some nefarious reason) available testing or treatment to those very same people they're working so hard to protect. You or we may not agree with their decisions, but we also aren't privy to the information they have. And I get it, you can then assume their info is just bad for whatever reason you want. We all view things through different lens, and that's why opinions are all over the board I guess.
Hell, why are we using the DPA for a bunch of ventilators that we will now likely never need instead of using it to develop a test infrastructure?
I don't know any of the reasons because the people in charge don't tell us why they aren't implementing a plan and no one bothers to ask.
I do not think the state leaders are willfully withholding information for nefarious reasons. I think they honestly believe they are giving us the information we need at this time. The people who are in a position to ask for information and get some answers (the new media) have seemed unwilling or unable to ask the right questions. I really do not understand why this is the case. It is almost like they are all living in the same bubble and are only talking to each other and not to the average citizen (possibly due to the lock-downs). I think part of the issue is the press conference format. It keeps the reporters isolated on the phone and there is an operator fielding the questions. There only seems to be a chance to ask one question with no follow-up question capability. We use this format for large presentations and quarterly updates for our business unit where I work, since we have employees located around the world. It is not the best method for one-to-one communication.Mormad said:wnosaj83 said:
What would you consider a good reason?
You can't think of legitimate reasons why there wouldn't be universal or widespread testing at this point?
I have a hard time assuming those who have shut us down to hopefully protect us (to the point that so many are complaining) are at the very same time willfully withholding (for some nefarious reason) available testing or treatment to those very same people they're working so hard to protect. You or we may not agree with their decisions, but we also aren't privy to the information they have. And I get it, you can then assume their info is just bad for whatever reason you want. We all view things through different lens, and that's why opinions are all over the board I guess.
PossumJenkins said:
Another 6.6 million new unemployment claims last week. Brings the total to 17 million over 3 weeks.
I think this has been handled poorly by government officials at all levels and by both parties. I don't care what political party someone is right now, if they can lead effectively, do it. Too much news is being filtered through a political lens or being laced with melodrama to provide ratings.Mormad said:
I find it interesting what drives differing sentiments regarding this pandemic. It's sometimes not solid science.
There are those who have never written a prescription who can't understand why plaquenil isn't handed out like breath mints. (And yes there are protocols for giving it to the very sick)
And yet a very intelligent doc who hates Trump said in conversation, "our president thinks it's (plaquenil) a game changer, but everybody else thinks it's just asinine." No, bud, that's an uniformed asinine statement based on hatred and politics. And that's from one of my peers who has championed this pandemic as " a very real crisis" from the get go and championed closing the OR. But his thoughts are based in politics, not science.
Wayland said:I think this has been handled poorly by government officials at all levels and by both parties. I don't care what political party someone is right now, if they can lead effectively, do it. Too much news is being filtered through a political lens or being laced with melodrama to provide ratings.Mormad said:
I find it interesting what drives differing sentiments regarding this pandemic. It's sometimes not solid science.
There are those who have never written a prescription who can't understand why plaquenil isn't handed out like breath mints. (And yes there are protocols for giving it to the very sick)
And yet a very intelligent doc who hates Trump said in conversation, "our president thinks it's (plaquenil) a game changer, but everybody else thinks it's just asinine." No, bud, that's an uniformed asinine statement based on hatred and politics. And that's from one of my peers who has championed this pandemic as " a very real crisis" from the get go and championed closing the OR. But his thoughts are based in politics, not science.
Things are bad, this is a crisis. Is this a moderately contagious virus with a high fatality rate or an extremely contagious virus with a low fatality rate but is spreading super rapidly due to zero population immunity? What is the true count of 'hidden cases'? Either situation is dire, but a crazy high priority should be understanding penetration since that knowledge should be directing strategy and policy.
"Shut it all down" is not a policy, it is a stop gap.
Daviewolf83 said:I do not think the state leaders are willfully withholding information for nefarious reasons. I think they honestly believe they are giving us the information we need at this time. The people who are in a position to ask for information and get some answers (the new media) have seemed unwilling or unable to ask the right questions. I really do not understand why this is the case. It is almost like they are all living in the same bubble and are only talking to each other and not to the average citizen (possibly due to the lock-downs). I think part of the issue is the press conference format. It keeps the reporters isolated on the phone and there is an operator fielding the questions. There only seems to be a chance to ask one question with no follow-up question capability. We use this format for large presentations and quarterly updates for our business unit where I work, since we have employees located around the world. It is not the best method for one-to-one communication.Mormad said:wnosaj83 said:
What would you consider a good reason?
You can't think of legitimate reasons why there wouldn't be universal or widespread testing at this point?
I have a hard time assuming those who have shut us down to hopefully protect us (to the point that so many are complaining) are at the very same time willfully withholding (for some nefarious reason) available testing or treatment to those very same people they're working so hard to protect. You or we may not agree with their decisions, but we also aren't privy to the information they have. And I get it, you can then assume their info is just bad for whatever reason you want. We all view things through different lens, and that's why opinions are all over the board I guess.
As a benchmark, I believe Governor Cuomo is doing an outstanding job of communicating updates and starting to talk about the future. His press conferences have reporters in the room (well spaced out) and they are able to ask questions in a more one-on-one setting. I wish NC was doing something similar and providing equally valuable information to what NY's governor is doing.
Again, the state leaders may believe they are giving us the updates we need for this point in time, but it does not demonstrate they are planning. On top of this, they put out their own model the other day and it was instantly picked apart. Many other states are also using their own model and they seem to be about as good as the one NC put out. Most of the attention of the federal government appears to be focused on the IHME model from Washington and this is the reason I look to it.
Ultimately, it is the responsibility of the government's leadership to provide confidence in what they are doing to handle the crisis and what they are currently doing is not providing confidence - at least on my part. This is not political and I do not care what party is in charge. I am just as frustrated at certain elements of President Trump's daily updates. Some of his updates are good, but much of it is filled with hyperbole and grandstanding. I always look forward to the portion of the press conference when we hear from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci. I find them to be very much in command of the facts and I get a great deal of confidence from what they say.
Everpack said:Wayland said:I think this has been handled poorly by government officials at all levels and by both parties. I don't care what political party someone is right now, if they can lead effectively, do it. Too much news is being filtered through a political lens or being laced with melodrama to provide ratings.Mormad said:
I find it interesting what drives differing sentiments regarding this pandemic. It's sometimes not solid science.
There are those who have never written a prescription who can't understand why plaquenil isn't handed out like breath mints. (And yes there are protocols for giving it to the very sick)
And yet a very intelligent doc who hates Trump said in conversation, "our president thinks it's (plaquenil) a game changer, but everybody else thinks it's just asinine." No, bud, that's an uniformed asinine statement based on hatred and politics. And that's from one of my peers who has championed this pandemic as " a very real crisis" from the get go and championed closing the OR. But his thoughts are based in politics, not science.
Things are bad, this is a crisis. Is this a moderately contagious virus with a high fatality rate or an extremely contagious virus with a low fatality rate but is spreading super rapidly due to zero population immunity? What is the true count of 'hidden cases'? Either situation is dire, but a crazy high priority should be understanding penetration since that knowledge should be directing strategy and policy.
"Shut it all down" is not a policy, it is a stop gap.
Is it really a crisis, though? I guess if you live within 50 miles of NYC, I could agree. I'm a dumb hick and even I can see the concentration of cases and deaths in NYC and the surrounding counties. Surely the geniuses who run this country can see that, too. It's like using deaths in nursing homes in the overall numbers to make decisions. I've said from the beginning that civil unrest will become a problem, and we are nearing people's capacity to put up with these restrictions based on what's going on around them.
But what community leaders are going to suggest that and then get vilified in the media? We talk about herd-immunity....holy crap, the herd-mentality aspect of the media drives so much of what people are led to think, and leadership is not immune.statefan91 said:
I think it's a crisis because we have made it one. I completely agree that super dense cities like NYC or places with huge gatherings like Mardi Gras need to continue to be locked down until their peak passes.
Even places like Charlotte where I am, despite having the most numbers in the State, shouldn't be on this total lockdown. We've been basically distancing since mid-March and now they're projecting that the social distancing has worked and that we will not have a peak until mid-May, and it won't overwhelm the hospital systems.
If that's the case, we need to start opening things back up so people can get back to life, focus on the most vulnerable populations, hell I'm fine with wearing masks and limiting shoppers at stores until the peak but right now we're basically shut down.
I saw this today, and thought it was an interesting map as it covers cases per capita,Everpack said:
The whole NYC thing interested me enough to run some quick numbers. The top 5 counties affected in NY and NJ are all within 50 miles of NYC. There are more counties within this radius, but my numbers only include those ten counties. 10 counties in two states currently account for 167,771 total cases and 6,837 total deaths. That's 39% of the nationwide cases and 46% of the nationwide deaths in a 50 mile radius. For the record, there is 3.797 million square miles in the US. We've shut the country down for an outbreak that is centered in 0.21% of the land area, which just happens to be the most densely populated city in the US, with multiple international airport hubs, with the most diverse population. NYC is not a representation of the rest of the country. In fact, it is the anomaly. Fix NYC, and let the rest of us return to our normal lives.
I hear you....but lets take a look locally....I was supposed to go to Isle of Palms next week for family vaca. Cases in NC/SC seem to be shrinking and maybe we could practice reasonable social distancing still but live reasonably normally there. Lets say they opened it up.....I'm not sure I'd be very comfortable if I knew people from NYC/NJ were also escaping to that area and going out to the restaurants, etc. And how do you prevent that from happening?Everpack said:
The whole NYC thing interested me enough to run some quick numbers. The top 5 counties affected in NY and NJ are all within 50 miles of NYC. There are more counties within this radius, but my numbers only include those ten counties. 10 counties in two states currently account for 167,771 total cases and 6,837 total deaths. That's 39% of the nationwide cases and 46% of the nationwide deaths in a 50 mile radius. For the record, there is 3.797 million square miles in the US. We've shut the country down for an outbreak that is centered in 0.21% of the land area, which just happens to be the most densely populated city in the US, with multiple international airport hubs, with the most diverse population. NYC is not a representation of the rest of the country. In fact, it is the anomaly. Fix NYC, and let the rest of us return to our normal lives.
Source: https://www.newsbreak.com/topics/covid-19