PossumJenkins said:

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Interesting but not shocking...the IMHE model was adjusted down this morning...but no major headlines...had it been adjusted up to say "2.2 million will die"...the media would be printing bumper stickers

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BREAKING NEWS....Trump says something different than he said a month ago









also, less people expected to die (almost expect them to put a sad face on some of these headlines)



**And yes, I know this is likely a case of confirmation bias for my disrespect for the media in general

Packchem91 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Question on comparative cases/deaths.

We talk about how NYC has been so suspect due to its pop density. But what other factor has driven it to be the epicenter?
It has nowhere near the population of major cities in India -- India has like 10 of the top 20 most densely populated cities in the world. But has 6k reported cases as a country.
Is it international travel that brought so many more people into NYC during the peak crisis time that initiated the spread?

Was it a matter of IN just locking down soon enough to prevent (I know my staff in IN has been in complete lockdown for at least 3 weeks now)?

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Well I guess I could have googled it a little bit more......saw some articles, albeit couple of weeks old now lamenting that this could be false positive news. Basically, that the amount of testing had almost been non-existent in India, and that health experts expect the cases to explode (whether that has happened or not...the #s still don't show it).

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I work with offshore resources in Hyderabad every day. They say testing is almost non-existent. Everything is shut down and people are bracing for things to get really bad. They don't sound optimistic

As to the latest adjustments to the IHME data, I commented on the latest adjustments earlier. The 4/5 update was a major adjustment, due to the inclusion of new and better data. This lead to a significant decrease in the number of deaths being forecast. The 4/7 update reportedly includes some additional adjustment to the calculation on the number of deaths by including some smoothing methodologies. They also added a tremendous number of new countries to the model.

In comparing the 4/7 model to the 4/5 model from a couple of days ago, two things are clear when I look at "mean total deaths":
1. The total number of deaths has increased from 496 to 522.
2. The total number of deaths before 4/29 has been lowered on a daily basis between 10 to 30 percent. After 4/29, the total number of deaths is higher by up to 5%. However, the 5% is against a larger number than the 10 to 30 percent prior to 4/29, so the effect is to increase the overall number of deaths. This change in the percentages is due to the smoothing in the data.

The EPO idea might have some merit. It takes about 5 days to start working I think. Would be an interesting study.

Probably best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But to be unprepared or naive can have dire consequences.

I was reading a docs' forum today, and just like here, opinions are all over the place.

Anybody surprised that predictions change every day and/ or that previous predictions haven't held true with this pandemic is cray. Lots moving parts with varying degrees of population density, demographics, age/health, quality and quantity of care, breadth of care, compliance with recommendations, etc and a virus that is poorly understood. Predicting viral behavior is a tricky business.

Daviewolf83 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Wayland said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Wayland said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Wow. Just saw NY posted a big number at the end of the day to caused new cases to be higher today then yesterday. Almost 33% of new cases today we're from NY and 40% of deaths were from NY

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Worldometers and most tracking sites take the NY number from their morning release. The 730+ number out of NY was as of Cuomo's morning presser for the previous day's count.

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And it changed tonight which surprised me

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Everywhere I look I still see 5489 total for NY (from 11am this morning), what is your source?

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Worldometers had it at 6,900 and now has it at 10,500

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I also see 5,489 total deaths for NY. Total US deaths are 12,854. This is all on the following URL:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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New cases not new deaths. I was saying the new cases went way up because of a big number add at the end of the day for NY. Had to check my original post to make sure I said that and not new deaths

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Sorry RunsWithWolves26, I misunderstood your post and was focusing on the 40% deaths increase comment. I just checked the time series data and here is what I see for NY for daily cases:

Time Series Data is from the covidtracking.com website (tabulated from the daily NY press conference)

Date..............Cases
4/7...............138,863
4/6...............130,689
4/5...............122,031
4/4...............113,704
4/3...............102,863
4/2............... 92,381

142,384 <== Current cases as reported by Worldometers -- increase of 10,468 cases

I can see where Worldometer is reporting an increase of 10,468 cases where I am only seeing a 8,174. I suspect there are differences from when the reports are being tabulate that cause these differences. The reporting on all of these numbers are tricky. There are definitely differences from state to state in the tabulation methods for the reporting (time of day and lags in reporting inside the states) causing these discrepancies. This is one of the things that adds noise to the data and makes it harder to forecast accurate trends. The covidtracking.com website has not updated the time series data for today, but I suspect it could be closer to Worldometer's case count of 142,384 cases.

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Haha. No worries man. I had to go back and make sure I actually typed out what I wanted to or if my fingers and brain bad decided to go different directions!

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

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4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

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4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

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4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

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4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

WRAL is already reporting over 60 deaths. Up from 55 yesterday morning. DHHS seems to lag a day.

Up to 13 Nursing Homes in outbreak situations (2+ positive cases)

Italy with 542 deaths today. Keeping that trend going the right way. They also completed almost 52,000 tests... in one day!

The state needs to use this opportunity to pivot to identifying a plan to test and isolate outbreaks since the state is not overwhelmed.

NY lower hospitalizations, but highest death day 779.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

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4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

4/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
3326
NC Deaths**
53
Currently Hospitalized
386
Completed Tests
42987

WRAL is already reporting over 60 deaths. Up from 55 yesterday morning. DHHS seems to lag a day.

Up to 13 Nursing Homes in outbreak situations (2+ positive cases)

Italy with 542 deaths today. Keeping that trend going the right way. They also completed almost 52,000 tests... in one day!

The state needs to use this opportunity to pivot to identifying a plan to test and isolate outbreaks since the state is not overwhelmed.

NY lower hospitalizations, but highest death day 779.

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Wayland - I think you and I are preaching to the choir. NC compared to other states is in very good shape.

I saw today where Texas and Louisiana are going to start doing the rapid tests at some drug stores. Will give people results in less than 15 minutes and they believe they could do 3,000 a day doing this in a drive-through format.

Where's the thinking in NC into those ideas. Do this in the areas where there are hot spots like Greensboro, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, Durham, and Wilmington. There are so many counties in NC with less than 20 cases that this likely does not make sense to do. Begin identifying, contact tracking, and isolating. Start targeting nursing homes, starting with the ones with the large populations. Test the workers and the patients.

This state seems to be moving so slow. It is maddening. At some point, we have to stop treating everyone as if they all have the virus and start identifying and tracing those who do really have it and let everyone who is not part of the vulnerable population and those who do not interface with the vulnerable population on a daily basis to go about their lives. Still wash hands, still stay home when sick, etc, but stop the lock-downs by middle of May at the latest.

I don't think NC is moving toward drive-thru testing applications at this time.

Business I work for had been in communication with a contractor for FEMA a few weeks ago regarding drive-thru test locations. Nothing came of it. From what I got from my contact, the drive thru test locations didn't spike in numbers like had originally been expected. (And this was almost 2 weeks ago)

With respect to Raleigh-Durham area, I was in communication with one of the hospitals in the area to try and provide some outdoor testing/screening locations, and they did not move forward with those either (citing less than anticipated volume/numbers)

I really wish we would/could increase our testing, but it doesn't seem like NC is trending that way at this time.

Raleigh's suburban sprawl coming back to bite?

This seems encouraging........

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/cdc-considering-easing-safety-guidelines-some-cases-exposure-report

From a Mecklenburg County news presser today. No, I have no idea if anyone actually questioned this statement.

Health Director Gibbie Harris says they are seeing a flattening of the curve. But said they still expect to see an overwhelming of the hospitals in @MeckCounty in early to mid-May #StayConnected @wbtradio

Still seems high. Now, it was mentioned that there were two potential outbreaks in nursing homes, which could absolutely increase #s quickly. That is a sad, sad scenario

Packchem91 said:

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From a Mecklenburg County news presser today. No, I have no idea if anyone actually questioned this statement.

Health Director Gibbie Harris says they are seeing a flattening of the curve. But said they still expect to see an overwhelming of the hospitals in @MeckCounty in early to mid-May #StayConnected @wbtradio

Still seems high. Now, it was mentioned that there were two potential outbreaks in nursing homes, which could absolutely increase #s quickly. That is a sad, sad scenario

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I kind of get this feeling from watching the State and some other local pressers, like they are expecting this mass wave and this is preventing them from being able to shift focus. The majority of the information out of the NC briefings have all been about handling surge capacity which is important, but maybe should be secondary given current trends.

Being able to shift back if things change is great, but... I am not sure I see where this massive surge is coming from. Day over day... Wake County added 12 cases today... 12...

Edit to add. Nursing Homes/Congregate and general population are two completely different things and need to be treated as such.

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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From a Mecklenburg County news presser today. No, I have no idea if anyone actually questioned this statement.

Health Director Gibbie Harris says they are seeing a flattening of the curve. But said they still expect to see an overwhelming of the hospitals in @MeckCounty in early to mid-May #StayConnected @wbtradio

Still seems high. Now, it was mentioned that there were two potential outbreaks in nursing homes, which could absolutely increase #s quickly. That is a sad, sad scenario

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I kind of get this feeling from watching the State and some other local pressers, like they are expecting this mass wave and this is preventing them from being able to shift focus. The majority of the information out of the NC briefings have all been about handling surge capacity which is important, but maybe should be secondary given current trends.

Being able to shift back if things change is great, but... I am not sure I see where this massive surge is coming from. Day over day... Wake County added 12 cases today... 12...

Edit to add. Nursing Homes/Congregate and general population are two completely different things and need to be treated as such.

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agreed. Especially with social distancing pretty well in place (other than the boobs out playing volleyball in the city parks, etc).

State briefing going right now. I missed the first couple minutes of Cooper talking.

Wayland said:

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State briefing going right now.

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Please update with comments if you can, I can't watch right now unfortunately

Basically about congregate and nursing home cases which are flaring up like wildfire. Apparently one facility (in Orange County) has 60+ cases, 2 deaths, and 7 hospitalized.

Executive order about employees wearing masks, etc.

Yes, one in Orange County with at least 60, and one in Pinehurst with 26, I think it was. Residents and staff. And two from the Orange County facility have died. Sad situation.

PackMom said:

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Yes, one in Orange County with at least 60, and one in Pinehurst with 26, I think it was. Residents and staff. And two from the Orange County facility have died. Sad situation.

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How scary it would be if your parents (or spouse) were in a nursing home. Feels like almost no way to stop that, nor to stop it from being devastating.
Heard on the news last night, a nursing home, I think in Philadelphia, is assuming all 800 residents are infected.

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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PackMom said:

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Yes, one in Orange County with at least 60, and one in Pinehurst with 26, I think it was. Residents and staff. And two from the Orange County facility have died. Sad situation.

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How scary it would be if your parents (or spouse) were in a nursing home. Feels like almost no way to stop that, nor to stop it from being devastating.
Heard on the news last night, a nursing home, I think in Philadelphia, is assuming all 800 residents are infected.

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When you see France release numbers for both in and out of facility, it is scary to see the facility number.

That being said congregate settings and general population are two separate entities and need to be treated as such. I'd hope that extreme measures were already in place at these facilities before these outbreaks and have been for weeks.

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Agreed on how to apply the counts and then corresponding treat / prevent should be handled differently.

Cooper says he doesn't know yet whether the stay at home order will be extended when asked directly by a reporter.

First cases at that OC facilty were identified 7 or 8 days ago.

More hard hitting reporter questions, like vehicle renewals. Glad we have our priorities in line.

My aunt lives in a retirement community, but she has her own house and does her own cooking. They are not allowed to have visitors but I speak with her regularly. She does have a home health aide who has to get screened before entering the property. Still scary.

Wayland said:

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Cooper says he doesn't know yet whether the stay at home order will be extended when asked directly by a reporter.

First cases at that OC facilty were identified 7 or 8 days ago.

More hard hitting reporter questions, like vehicle renewals. Glad we have our priorities in line.

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That's what he said yesterday, but it felt like he was laying the groundwork to extend it. Especially with their seeming reliance on the NC model that was created showing the peak moving to mid-May.

statefan91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Cooper says he doesn't know yet whether the stay at home order will be extended when asked directly by a reporter.

First cases at that OC facilty were identified 7 or 8 days ago.

More hard hitting reporter questions, like vehicle renewals. Glad we have our priorities in line.

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That's what he said yesterday, but it felt like he was laying the groundwork to extend it. Especially with their seeming reliance on the NC model that was created showing the peak moving to mid-May.

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His comments very much resembled yesterday. He referenced other studies, looking at other states, and business. I am guessing that last 'business' part is some push back he is getting.

Even Cuomo in his presser this morning was not willing to extend his end of April date yet. While I am most certain in NY, it will be pushed back, Cuomo was firm that it is too early to make concrete decisions. If Cuomo can hold to that given the **** storm he is in, I would hope Cooper would not force a decision.

Thanks - glad to hear he's listening to all potential inputs. Think there needs to be an updated strategy at end of April to focus on most vulnerable populations and protecting them, letting others get back to a bit of normalcy while recommending masks, increased cleanliness recommendations, etc.

Barring some late reporting (and especially since we get big totals once a day out of NY/NJ etc.), it looks like the U.S. is trending to be about where it was yesterday on death totals (based on worldometer GMT data). So unless someone is really holding back or there is a late day surge somewhere, no huge spike (as bad as it is).

Were there any questions about testing? Why it's fallen in the recent days? How we're planning to ramp up so that we can get back to work?

PossumJenkins said:

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Were there any questions about testing? Why it's fallen in the recent days? How we're planning to ramp up so that we can get back to work?

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Zero questions on testing or exit strategy. As expected.

Wayland said:

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PossumJenkins said:

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Were there any questions about testing? Why it's fallen in the recent days? How we're planning to ramp up so that we can get back to work?

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Zero questions on testing or exit strategy. As expected.

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I've read a few articles about businesses discussing opening as normal anyway. I've wondered how long we would last like this before local businesses decided that they had enough and were going to open anyway.

Somebody please tell me that the worldometers number for NV is wrong. They are showing 22,000 new cases in NV today. That can't be right can it????!?!?!?!!

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Somebody please tell me that the worldometers number for NV is wrong. They are showing 22,000 new cases in NV today. That can't be right can it????!?!?!?!!

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That is likely a typo since that number is greater than the total tests Nevada has run. Happens now and then.

State of Nevada website has 2318 as their positive.

Wayland said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Somebody please tell me that the worldometers number for NV is wrong. They are showing 22,000 new cases in NV today. That can't be right can it????!?!?!?!!

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That is likely a typo since that number is greater than the total tests Nevada has run. Happens now and then.

State of Nevada website has 2318 as their positive.

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Yep. Figured it had to be but what a freaking shocker it was to check and see new cases at 44,000 and NV with 22,000 new cases today! Lord have mercy.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Somebody please tell me that the worldometers number for NV is wrong. They are showing 22,000 new cases in NV today. That can't be right can it????!?!?!?!!

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May have cleared a large backlog and batch reported them.This is why it is so hard to track new daily cases. Dr. Birx mentioned yesterday that testing of people at hospitals is taking priority over testing from drive through testing and other testing methods. Until they clear the hospital backlog, they will not test the specimens from the other testing areas.

Daviewolf83 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Somebody please tell me that the worldometers number for NV is wrong. They are showing 22,000 new cases in NV today. That can't be right can it????!?!?!?!!

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May have cleared a large backlog and batch reported them.This is why it is so hard to track new daily cases. Dr. Birx mentioned yesterday that testing of people at hospitals is taking priority over testing from drive through testing and other testing methods. Until they clear the hospital backlog, they will not test the specimens from the other testing areas.

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Looks like it has been cleared up now and replaced with the proper number. No way one state would have 22,000 cases backlogged! Or at least I hope to god they wouldn't