As soon as DHHS posts their numbers, media reporting 8 more deaths. I guess will get added to tomorrow's tally.
Coronavirus
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I agree. It will be very hard to ever come out of the lock-down if NC does not make drastic improvement in their testing capacities. The media really needs to keep pressing this issue in the daily briefings they are getting. Here's the number of daily tests for the past seven days:acslater1344 said:
I know the data isn't perfect, but per worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), NC is ranked 42nd out of 50 states for tests per 1M population. Pretty sad.
Date......Number of Tests
4/1..........3,137
4/2..........2,436
4/3..........2,919
4/4..........7,125
4/5..........1,212
4/6.............681
4/7.............356
so I assume we will get this initial infection rate down to something the healthcare system can manage. What is the plan for moving forward? I am yet to hear one.
The problem is in NC, we are at a rate that the healthcare system can manage. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed... even in NYC where things are the worst of the worst, they currently have the resources (beds) to handle their infections but are admittedly having to stretch.burnbarn said:
so I assume we will get this initial infection rate down to something the healthcare system can manage. What is the plan for moving forward? I am yet to hear one.
Corona cases in NC account for less than 2% of the overall beds and ICU admissions (estimated based on NC DHHS reported numbers). The state has not been crystal clear with what the next steps are other than planned surveillance is going to take place at some point. How can we have any confidence in that when the state can't even execute basic testing? And they look to be shaping policy on an admitted "preliminary and not peer-reviewed" analysis that any layman could see was junk data in 30 seconds.
The government seems lost in how to manage the situation and unwilling to accept the realities of the situation.
I'm sure it's somewhere else in the thread, but are NC #s decreasing because:Daviewolf83 said:I agree. It will be very hard to ever come out of the lock-down if NC does not make drastic improvement in their testing capacities. The media really needs to keep pressing this issue in the daily briefings they are getting. Here's the number of daily tests for the past seven days:acslater1344 said:
I know the data isn't perfect, but per worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), NC is ranked 42nd out of 50 states for tests per 1M population. Pretty sad.
Date......Number of Tests
4/1..........3,137
4/2..........2,436
4/3..........2,919
4/4..........7,125
4/5..........1,212
4/6.............681
4/7.............356
1) capacity / supplies don't exist?
2) demand is not as high b/c people are feeling good?
3) haven't practices changed where if someone has certain conditions, they aren't even tested?
4) All of above / other / etc?
Lack of test
I asked a ref if he could give me a technical foul for thinking bad things about him. He said, of course not. I said, well, I think you stink. And he gave me a technical. You can't trust em. Jim Valvano.
Just saw the following stat from a Brett Jensen tweet
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
These are testing guidelines:
"In general, patients who have mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do not need testing for COVID-19 and should be instructed to stay and recover at home. Also, please do not test patients who are not sick or who have already recovered from a respiratory illness.
Clinicians should use their clinical judgment and prioritize testing of patients for whom clinical management would be different if they are infected with COVID-19 and patients in high risk categories (e.g., patients in long-term or congregate care settings, elderly and/or those with respiratory comorbidities, health care workers, and first responders)."
Basically only testing severe cases, congregate care, elderly, or front line workers.
How they are going to make the leap to true surveillance from that, good luck. Hopefully other states can actually execute a plan, so we can at least get some insight into similar community types.
Overall positive covid-19 tests means nothing BECAUSE WE AREN'T TESTING. That number might actually be great since we are only testing the elderly.
"In general, patients who have mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do not need testing for COVID-19 and should be instructed to stay and recover at home. Also, please do not test patients who are not sick or who have already recovered from a respiratory illness.
Clinicians should use their clinical judgment and prioritize testing of patients for whom clinical management would be different if they are infected with COVID-19 and patients in high risk categories (e.g., patients in long-term or congregate care settings, elderly and/or those with respiratory comorbidities, health care workers, and first responders)."
Basically only testing severe cases, congregate care, elderly, or front line workers.
How they are going to make the leap to true surveillance from that, good luck. Hopefully other states can actually execute a plan, so we can at least get some insight into similar community types.
Overall positive covid-19 tests means nothing BECAUSE WE AREN'T TESTING. That number might actually be great since we are only testing the elderly.
Yeah, that's the worst of the reasons, unfortunately. You'd think NC would have more pull than to be left that far behind.Glasswolf said:
Lack of test
Thank you -- I knew I had seen that guidance somewhere, and I agree, that purposefully (or maybe by default if due to lack of supplies) skews the data, which is not good for analysis and identifying where we really are in the lifespan of this.Wayland said:
These are testing guidelines:
"In general, patients who have mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do not need testing for COVID-19 and should be instructed to stay and recover at home. Also, please do not test patients who are not sick or who have already recovered from a respiratory illness.
Clinicians should use their clinical judgment and prioritize testing of patients for whom clinical management would be different if they are infected with COVID-19 and patients in high risk categories (e.g., patients in long-term or congregate care settings, elderly and/or those with respiratory comorbidities, health care workers, and first responders)."
Basically only testing severe cases, congregate care, elderly, or front line workers.
How they are going to make the leap to true surveillance from that, good luck. Hopefully other states can actually execute a plan, so we can at least get some insight into similar community types.
Overall positive covid-19 tests means nothing BECAUSE WE AREN'T TESTING. That number might actually be great since we are only testing the elderly.
Packchem91 said:
Just saw the following stat from a Brett Jensen tweet
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
Brett Jensen also tweeted the ridiculous claims from the model released yesterday. You would think a reporter would investigate the facts, but that's not their goal. Their job is to sell fear and get hits.
Good chance, U.S. death total today pushes just under 2,000 for the day (which I think is actually under the line for IHME). Worldometers has U.S already over 1300 with no Michigan numbers, at least NY is in for the day so that is a good chunk.
Davie can probably answer this for me as it relates to deaths and total cases. My thinking is we should start to see a decrease in total daily cases over the next several days while at the same time, seeing an increase in total deaths. Basically one positive to go with one negative. If that isn't right, hopefully Davie can clarify it for me.
I guess what I will be watching closely is when the daily new cases decrease and the daily new deaths decrease. At that point, the government is going to have to start opening things back up because if they don't, this economy is not sustainable. I'm just glad, as I've said before, I am not the one in charge of making those types of life altering decisions.
I guess what I will be watching closely is when the daily new cases decrease and the daily new deaths decrease. At that point, the government is going to have to start opening things back up because if they don't, this economy is not sustainable. I'm just glad, as I've said before, I am not the one in charge of making those types of life altering decisions.
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Good points. To expand on the capacity discussion, NC currently has 9,292 available (unoccupied) beds statewide out of a total capacity of 22,020 beds. This includes both regular beds and ICU beds. So, 42% of the beds are still available to be filled statewide.Wayland said:The problem is in NC, we are at a rate that the healthcare system can manage. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed... even in NYC where things are the worst of the worst, they currently have the resources (beds) to handle their infections but are admittedly having to stretch.burnbarn said:
so I assume we will get this initial infection rate down to something the healthcare system can manage. What is the plan for moving forward? I am yet to hear one.
Corona cases in NC account for less than 2% of the overall beds and ICU admissions (estimated based on NC DHHS reported numbers). The state has not been crystal clear with what the next steps are other than planned surveillance is going to take place at some point. How can we have any confidence in that when the state can't even execute basic testing? And they look to be shaping policy on an admitted "preliminary and not peer-reviewed" analysis that any layman could see was junk data in 30 seconds.
The government seems lost in how to manage the situation and unwilling to accept the realities of the situation.
Looking at just ICU beds, NC has 4,219 total capacity and currently 996 are empty and available. So, 23% of all ICU rooms are currently available.
From a ventilator standpoint, NC currently has a total capacity of 3,197 ventilators available statewide and currently, only 749 ventilators are currently in use (may include some Covid-19 patients). So, 2,448 of the ventilators in NC hospitals are available for use.
Looking at the latest IHME modeling, the requirements at peak for hospital rooms and ventilators are as follows:
All Beds:
Upper Confidence Interval = 2,694 beds
Mean = 1,361 beds
Lower Confidence Interval = 648 beds
ICU Beds:
Upper Confidence Interval = 525 beds
Mean = 264 beds
Lower Confidence Interval = 139 beds
Ventilators:
Upper Confidence Interval = 446 ventilators
Mean = 224 ventilators
Lower Confidence Interval = 118 ventilators
In summary, even if you assume NC requires the capacity reflected by the Upper Control Intervals for Beds, ICU beds, and Ventilators, there is enough to cover the needs at the forecast peak of demand. At peak, the following capacity would still be available:
All Beds (remaining beds at Upper Limit Peak Demand): 6,598 available beds
ICU Beds (remaining ICU beds at Upper Limit Peak Demand): 471 available ICU beds
Ventilators (remaining ventilators at Upper Limit Peak Demand): 2,002 available ventilators
If the worst case projections of the model comes true, NC still has an excess of 2,000 ventilators available. This means NC could afford to send a large number of ventilators to states where they are more needed and still keep some buffer.
Bottom line, at this point the citizens of NC should feel confident that the hospitals will have the capacity to deal with the illnesses at the peak of the epidemic.
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In looking at the graph of daily new cases, I would project that the rate of increase will level off this week in the percentage increase in daily new cases and you should start to see an overall leveling off the middle of next week. It seems to show some flattening now, but the standard deviation is still too high to say for sure that it has flattened, driven in part by the low testing the past few days. The percentage of number of people who are tested that tests positive is now up to 8%, so it appears they are doing a better job of testing people who exhibit the signs of illness.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Davie can probably answer this for me as it relates to deaths and total cases. My thinking is we should start to see a decrease in total daily cases over the next several days while at the same time, seeing an increase in total deaths. Basically one positive to go with one negative. If that isn't right, hopefully Davie can clarify it for me.
I guess what I will be watching closely is when the daily new cases decrease and the daily new deaths decrease. At that point, the government is going to have to start opening things back up because if they don't, this economy is not sustainable. I'm just glad, as I've said before, I am not the one in charge of making those types of life altering decisions.
With regards to deaths, they unfortunately are a trailing indicator, so they will continue to increase, even when daily new cases flatten out and begin to decline. The IHME model shows mean total daily deaths peaking on April 15 (30 deaths on this date), but I think the peak could be a little later in the week based on the curves.
We should have a better idea on all of this over the weekend and hopefully testing will pick back up again.
Agreed on the model context comment....and I questioned him about the context (he never responded).packgrad said:Packchem91 said:
Just saw the following stat from a Brett Jensen tweet
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
Brett Jensen also tweeted the ridiculous claims from the model released yesterday. You would think a reporter would investigate the facts, but that's not their goal. Their job is to sell fear and get hits.
But that doesn't mean everything is wrong (I think the trends are over-stated).but the fatality rate....I suspect both flu and covid have under-reported cases...lots of people get the flu and never go to the doctor.
The governor and his team are giving an update at 2 PM. Please do not let him make a rash decision over that horrible model from yesterday.
Packchem91 said:Agreed on the model context comment....and I questioned him about the context (he never responded).packgrad said:Packchem91 said:
Just saw the following stat from a Brett Jensen tweet
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
Brett Jensen also tweeted the ridiculous claims from the model released yesterday. You would think a reporter would investigate the facts, but that's not their goal. Their job is to sell fear and get hits.
But that doesn't mean everything is wrong (I think the trends are over-stated).but the fatality rate....I suspect both flu and covid have under-reported cases...lots of people get the flu and never go to the doctor.
I agree. It does not mean everything is wrong. Context is important though, and it does not seem that is something he is interested in.
packgrad said:
The governor and his team are giving an update at 2 PM. Please do not let him make a rash decision over that horrible model from yesterday.
Can watch here I believe:
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
Hasn't committed to extending into May but laying the groundwork. Saying stay at home is our best tool but NO MENTION OF RAMPING UP MASS TESTING
Wayland said:packgrad said:
The governor and his team are giving an update at 2 PM. Please do not let him make a rash decision over that horrible model from yesterday.
Can watch here I believe:
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
Cooper said that he doesn't know if the stay at home order will be extended into May. I was getting worried after he quoted that bull**** study from yesterday.
Hopefully, they will make the right call (whatever it is) based on good information.
Still REALLY focused on expanding hospital capacity.
At least they said it's just part of the toolkit and not what they will base everything on.
Wonder if they are going to redo the model with updated data.
Wonder if they are going to redo the model with updated data.
Thanks for the updates. I'm in my truck and the audio went out on the press conference feed for me.
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I need to find a member of the new media who attends these press conferences and is willing to ask some of the questions you and I would have for the governor and the other members of the staff. These questions would be:Wayland said:packgrad said:
The governor and his team are giving an update at 2 PM. Please do not let him make a rash decision over that horrible model from yesterday.
Can watch here I believe:
https://www.ncdps.gov/storm-update
1. Testing per day has declined over the past several days. What is the reason for the decline and what your the plans to increase testing to levels that would support Test-and-Trace?
2. Speaking of Test-and-Trace and specifically Contact Tracing, what plans are you making to put these types of steps in place after we pass the peak of the cases? Many experts say that Contact Tracking and Test-and-Trace are critical to implement, so the economy can return to normal levels and you get out of the practice of assuming everyone is asymptomatic with the virus.
3. Based on the worst case scenario of the IHME model, at peak NC is projected to have 2,000 additional unused ventilators. Have you had any discussions with harder hit states with regards to supplying them some of the these ventilators? It appears you could send 1,000 ventilators and still have 1,000 as a buffer.
4. Why are did you chose to use your own models instead of relying on the IHME model? It appears many in the federal government, including Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are relying on this model, so it must have some value to them.
I am going to post on Twitter and tag a couple of local reporters from WRAL and the N&O.
I would e-mail them directly too, not just twitter.
It's so misleading for him to stand up there and say we have 3,221 cases when they aren't testing everyone with symptoms. I guess he has to say something, but that number could be off by a factor of ten or more and we wouldn't know. People see that number and think that the death rate is %1.5 and use it to justify hysteria. Reporting incomplete numbers, and making policy using those numbers, isn't helping. It creates doubt on both sides. People need to be about to trust what they are being told to justify the measures we are taking.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
In other COVID news.......
http://360newslasvegas.com/nv-prisons-hoarded-anti-malaria-drug-after-sisolak-issued-ban/
http://360newslasvegas.com/nv-prisons-hoarded-anti-malaria-drug-after-sisolak-issued-ban/
wilmwolf80 said:
It's so misleading for him to stand up there and say we have 3,221 cases when they aren't testing everyone with symptoms. I guess he has to say something, but that number could be off by a factor of ten or more and we wouldn't know. People see that number and think that the death rate is %1.5 and use it to justify hysteria. Reporting incomplete numbers, and making policy using those numbers, isn't helping. It creates doubt on both sides. People need to be about to trust what they are being told to justify the measures we are taking.
The whole briefing was fluff except for the comments from DHHS about emergency child-care. While that is great, I would really like more focus on the actual virus.
Let's see if any good questions actually get asked.
Good question from someone on when we can open back up or what strategy is being developed to figure that out.
Cooper first referenced the model done by "NC Experts" and then talked about how our best position from that is to continue our stay at home order through May. Said that they would consult that model, other models, health care leaders, and business leaders.
Cooper first referenced the model done by "NC Experts" and then talked about how our best position from that is to continue our stay at home order through May. Said that they would consult that model, other models, health care leaders, and business leaders.
Wiseman asks about race and ethnicity data. Damnit, man, that has been on the DHHS website for over a week, what kind of investigative reporter are you????
Come on, media.
Come on, media.
Daviewolf83 said:In looking at the graph of daily new cases, I would project that the rate of increase will level off this week in the percentage increase in daily new cases and you should start to see an overall leveling off the middle of next week. It seems to show some flattening now, but the standard deviation is still too high to say for sure that it has flattened, driven in part by the low testing the past few days. The percentage of number of people who are tested that tests positive is now up to 8%, so it appears they are doing a better job of testing people who exhibit the signs of illness.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Davie can probably answer this for me as it relates to deaths and total cases. My thinking is we should start to see a decrease in total daily cases over the next several days while at the same time, seeing an increase in total deaths. Basically one positive to go with one negative. If that isn't right, hopefully Davie can clarify it for me.
I guess what I will be watching closely is when the daily new cases decrease and the daily new deaths decrease. At that point, the government is going to have to start opening things back up because if they don't, this economy is not sustainable. I'm just glad, as I've said before, I am not the one in charge of making those types of life altering decisions.
With regards to deaths, they unfortunately are a trailing indicator, so they will continue to increase, even when daily new cases flatten out and begin to decline. The IHME model shows mean total daily deaths peaking on April 15 (30 deaths on this date), but I think the peak could be a little later in the week based on the curves.
We should have a better idea on all of this over the weekend and hopefully testing will pick back up again.
As always, thanks!
Lol. I thought that was him. Can't stand that guy.
Not particularly surprising coming from him.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
Yes...and I think his reporting is important. Unfortunately, its like he posts it, then gives no additional details,which I find very frustrating, and potentially misleading. I mean, and what else does he (or others), have to do?packgrad said:Packchem91 said:Agreed on the model context comment....and I questioned him about the context (he never responded).packgrad said:Packchem91 said:
Just saw the following stat from a Brett Jensen tweet
In NC from 9/29-3/28 (6 mos), 88,929 ppl tested positive for the flu. 159 have died. A fatality rate of 0.18%.
In NC from 3/2-4/5 (34 days), 3,221 ppl tested positive for COVID-19. At least 47 have died. A fatality rate of 1.46%.
Brett Jensen also tweeted the ridiculous claims from the model released yesterday. You would think a reporter would investigate the facts, but that's not their goal. Their job is to sell fear and get hits.
But that doesn't mean everything is wrong (I think the trends are over-stated).but the fatality rate....I suspect both flu and covid have under-reported cases...lots of people get the flu and never go to the doctor.
I agree. It does not mean everything is wrong. Context is important though, and it does not seem that is something he is interested in.
They'd rightly question POTUS / Governor / other leader in a presser on things they say....why not question the data and the context in which it was provided. That is part of the story.
That was a topic on CBS National News last night. Seems like it should be a post-analysis type of issue. I mean, its one thing to say, "75% of deaths, but only 20% of cases"...but like the theme on these last few pages, without context of the health of those affected, and other data, it's not necessarily useful data.Wayland said:
Wiseman asks about race and ethnicity data. Damnit, man, that has been on the DHHS website for over a week, what kind of investigative reporter are you????
Come on, media.
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