I don't understand your post, however an 8000+ percentage increase in something is absolutely not a sign that containment efforts are working.

Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

packgrad said:

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I don't understand your post, however an 8000+ percentage increase in something is absolutely not a sign that containment efforts are working.

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Would it suggest it works (at least to some degree)if the projections without it are a multiple higher or exponentially higher?

No. It would suggest neither work.

packgrad said:

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I don't understand your post, however an 8000+ percentage increase in something is absolutely not a sign that containment efforts are working.

---

I visited Dorothea Dix twice with a group from church when I was a teenager; 1/2 of them would know better!!!!!!!! I have not done the percentages but I'll take your 8000% increase as fact. I met one guy at DD on my second visit and I talked to him for 5 minutes and at ~17, I wondered what is this guy doing here? Then he told me that he owned Brock's Candy Company and I was believing him but then he said he owned Sears-Robuck too and I knew he was lying and then he said he owned the whole GD World and I knew he was crazy as bat$#!+; maybe he went to China and ate some?. 8000% would be 1,000,000,000% in your world!!!! We ain't even burying people that had it dude! I don't want to be 6 feet away from of a cough and definitely not a sneeze by someone with CV-19!

Apparently with the economy shut down folks get in the bottle earlier

On a Monday.

PossumJenkins said:

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Apparently with the economy shut down folks get in the bottle earlier

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Iced tea during the post and 3 beers since....I would not change a thing. PackGrad qualifies but Dorothea Dix/Dix Hill is closed.

Dix Hill

Then you should drink more...you're an ahole when you're sober.

Perhaps you didn't understand. Packgrad is referring to a model that says that if we continue all the social distancing, lockdowns etc...everything that is in place as it sits right now...that as a state...who currently has 3000 cases...we will be at 250,000 cases in two months! Again. Not changing a thing from the restrictions that are in place now. If you can't see the asininery in that...i can't help ya. The point being if that were indeed to happen...it would prove social distancing wasn't having the affect it had hoped.

He also didn't direct it at you or call you a third grader or mentally challenged...maybe check that tea

Math is tough for you, huh? Drink another clown.

Not to interrupt the wonderfully insightful back and forth but I take it as a good sign that states like Washington and Oregon are sending ventilator's back because they have to many and don't need that many. Seems that is a good sign of things improving in areas of the country that took social distancing steps and other measures early to flatten the curve as they say. Looking forward to seeing if other states end up following this and seeing when they put measures into place in their states. Saw a comparison of KY and Tenn a week or so ago showing KY taking steps earlier then Tenn even when they had their first case 1 day apart and how much better off KY was at the time of reading this article as Tenn was. Hoping for more positive trends in the coming days.

ciscopack said:

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packgrad said:

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I don't understand your post, however an 8000+ percentage increase in something is absolutely not a sign that containment efforts are working.

---

I visited Dorothea Dix twice with a group from church when I was a teenager; 1/2 of them would know better!!!!!!!! I have not done the percentages but I'll take your 8000% increase as fact. I met one guy at DD on my second visit and I talked to him for 5 minutes and at ~17, I wondered what is this guy doing here? Then he told me that he owned Brock's Candy Company and I was believing him but then he said he owned Sears-Robuck too and I knew he was lying and then he said he owned the whole GD World and I knew he was crazy as bat$#!+; maybe he went to China and ate some?. 8000% would be 1,000,000,000% in your world!!!! We ain't even burying people that had it dude! I don't want to be 6 feet away from of a cough and definitely not a sneeze by someone with CV-19!

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I'm not sure if I've had a stroke or you have but I don't understand a single ****ing thing you post

Guess your moderating style has changed. Lol.

packgrad said:

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Math is tough for you, huh? Drink another clown.

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Yeah....I did not go to State ( I was accepted at State and the other 5 places I sent my partying paperwork to but I majored in partying) and I got kicked out of college for social and academic problems! The Math.....99.99% finished below me on the SAT. In other news on CV-19...

In January 2020, Christi Grimm became the Principal Deputy Inspector General of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of Inspector General (OIG). As Principal Deputy Inspector General, she leads an independent and objective organization of more than 1,600 auditors, evaluators, investigators, lawyers, and management professionals who carry out OIG's mission of protecting the integrity of HHS programs as well as the health and welfare of program beneficiaries. Ms. Grimm is responsible for the oversight of more than 100 programs administered by HHS agencies such as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), Administration for Children and Families, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Food and Drug Administration, and National Institutes of Health. Ms. Grimm brings two decades of leadership and expertise in health and human services programs. She is a leading expert in program integrity issues related to HHS programs, with particular emphasis on health care services provided in home and community-based settings. Ms. Grimm serves as an executive liaison by engaging with Government partners, national professional associations, and the private sector, and she frequently represents OIG as a speaker at educational programs and before Congress and the media.

Dix Hill

PGA tour has set tour dates for the rest of the year. The end is near.

packgrad said:

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PGA tour has set tour dates for the rest of the year. The end is near.

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Right on grad...you are more worldly...
The Water Cooler (55.7%)

cisco
Alpha Wolf Rising (89.7%)

The Captain voted, so maybe CV-19 does make a difference on the carrier? 1 weak vote

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

NC numbers are down.

2 deaths. Less than 300 positives. The updated projections say we were supposed to have 12 per day by April 6.

Hope this trend continues.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

Yeah, I can't get over that. Lumberton reminded me of the density of the city as so much greater than everywhere else....but it's still a fascinating (in a bad way statistic when you look at the cases ranked by state and see that gap.

Pacfanweb said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

NC numbers are down.

2 deaths. Less than 300 positives. The updated projections say we were supposed to have 12 per day by April 6.

Hope this trend continues.

---

several hours ago, Brett Jensen, who's been covering this for WBT radio in Charlotte, tweeted that Charlotte hospitals have 25 patients currently in ICU due to COVID.
I've not tracked that over the days to know if it's good or bad, but would assume some # of those will sadly become death stats -- and surely victims who almost suredly had some underlying condition.

Packchem91 said:

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Pacfanweb said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

NC numbers are down.

2 deaths. Less than 300 positives. The updated projections say we were supposed to have 12 per day by April 6.

Hope this trend continues.

---

several hours ago, Brett Jensen, who's been covering this for WBT radio in Charlotte, tweeted that Charlotte hospitals have 25 patients currently in ICU due to COVID.
I've not tracked that over the days to know if it's good or bad, but would assume some # of those will sadly become death stats -- and surely victims who almost suredly had some underlying condition.

---

We will certainly have a higher number of deaths in today's numbers. There were a number reported by media yesterday.

ICU usage isn't great, but it would be interesting to know how many are on ventilators. Since NC is at such a low point as far as resource usage, hopefully it is possible that lower severity cases are getting a disproportionate ICU usage and they will recover. But going into the ICU is not a positive.

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Pacfanweb said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

NC numbers are down.

2 deaths. Less than 300 positives. The updated projections say we were supposed to have 12 per day by April 6.

Hope this trend continues.

---

several hours ago, Brett Jensen, who's been covering this for WBT radio in Charlotte, tweeted that Charlotte hospitals have 25 patients currently in ICU due to COVID.
I've not tracked that over the days to know if it's good or bad, but would assume some # of those will sadly become death stats -- and surely victims who almost suredly had some underlying condition.

---

We will certainly have a higher number of deaths in today's numbers. There were a number reported by media yesterday.

ICU usage isn't great, but it would be interesting to know how many are on ventilators. Since NC is at such a low point as far as resource usage, hopefully it is possible that lower severity cases are getting a disproportionate ICU usage and they will recover. But going into the ICU is not a positive.

---

Agreed -- you raise a good point about being able to serve 25 folks much easier, and hopefully positively, than if you are over-run.
But I also would expect that # to lead to a more significant increase in the death counts.

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Pacfanweb said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Numbers are up today which is not surprising. Glad to see the new cases not going over 30,000 today. Still crazy that 40% of cases and almost 60% of deaths are from two states, NY and NJ. Hopefully the steps California, Washington and a few other big city or vulnerable states took pays off.

---

NC numbers are down.

2 deaths. Less than 300 positives. The updated projections say we were supposed to have 12 per day by April 6.

Hope this trend continues.

---

several hours ago, Brett Jensen, who's been covering this for WBT radio in Charlotte, tweeted that Charlotte hospitals have 25 patients currently in ICU due to COVID.
I've not tracked that over the days to know if it's good or bad, but would assume some # of those will sadly become death stats -- and surely victims who almost suredly had some underlying condition.

---

We will certainly have a higher number of deaths in today's numbers. There were a number reported by media yesterday.

ICU usage isn't great, but it would be interesting to know how many are on ventilators. Since NC is at such a low point as far as resource usage, hopefully it is possible that lower severity cases are getting a disproportionate ICU usage and they will recover. But going into the ICU is not a positive.

---

I think ICU usage is different depending on where you are. My wife works in ICU but but there are a lot of times that folks who aren't that sick are up there in her, just because there isn't anywhere else to put them. Of course she is at a smaller hospital.

The president acquired more hydroxy chloroquine from India. Also looks like Australia is going to start using it as a treatment as well.

packgrad said:

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The president acquired more hydroxy chloroquine from India. Also looks like Australia is going to start using it as a treatment as well.

---

So Australia is doing exactly what we are doing, correct?

Found this to be an interesting read...

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

Did it get pulled down? There was another Medium article that seemed really insightful that I think packgrad posted but it got pulled down from Medium.

Interesting read. Thanks for sharing. I follow a guy called Naval on Twitter. He retweeted a thread from a guy called Yishan with a similar diagnosis. He is also studying plasma transfusion as well, so differs a bit from this guy, but interesting nonetheless.

Both are basing off of this report, coincidentally done in China who I earlier said not to listen to.

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173

I'm currently frustrated with the increasing calls for everyone to wear a mask in public. Firstly, where are the masks supposed to come from? Most people do not have a stash of surgical masks sitting around in their homes. I know I don't. I've been trying to source some to wear while working, but they are either not in stock or not available until mid May. Most retailers are giving priority to hospitals and the like, as they should. And yes, I've seen the thousands of tutorials on Facebook about how to make your own out if an old t-shirt, but if you aren't using the proper materials, it's not going to do one iota of good. Which brings me to my second complaint, that if everyone is wearing a mask, it gives them a false sense of security, particularly if those masks aren't the proper type or are homemade. If the CDC or whomever else wants everyone to wear masks, and has a cache of enough of them to supply multiple masks to everyone in the country, fine, hand them out. Otherwise stay off TV telling people to wear masks

Steak-umm tweeting some stuff. Like 8 parts to this tweet.

My boss ordered some online last week. Still at least a couple weeks out for delivery. Can't find them anywhere. I look almost every day at the big box stores. My in house guys are more concerned than my subs, so I'm trying to find something for them. I don't see them being readily available for months.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

Over 700 deaths in NY today, but their hospital admissions and ICU admissions continue to drop. So some positive news in light of the worst day yet for their death total.

I know the data isn't perfect, but per worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), NC is ranked 42nd out of 50 states for tests per 1M population. Pretty sad.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

---

4/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2402
NC Deaths**
24
Currently Hospitalized
271

Looks like DHHS is lagging in numbers today, since we should have had at least 5 more deaths in the morning count. Guilford only showing 3 deaths in this count and they are at 5 or 6. DHHS only reports lab confirmed reported deaths, so maybe the local health departments either aren't reporting or don't have lab confirmation on the media counts?

Congregate Data:
6 Nursing Homes, 4 Residential Care, 2 Correctional Facilities, and 1 Other have 2 more more lab confirmed cases. Considered Outbreak.

---

4/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2585
NC Deaths**
31
Currently Hospitalized
261

Deaths in NC
26 > 65 years of age
3 Between 50-64 years of age
2 Between 25-49 years of age

---

4/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
2870
NC Deaths**
33
Currently Hospitalized
270

---

4/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 10:15am)

NC Cases*
3221
NC Deaths**
46
Currently Hospitalized
354

Worst day. Although some of that total looks to be the lag that the media had that DHHS wasn't reported. 80% of total deaths 65+ years of age.

The highest day for positive cases by collective sample is still 3/23/2020 second highest is 4/1/2020. But positive cases still awful metric since testing is not consistent.

---

Seems like maybe some of the increase is a bit of lag from preceding day?
The metric of 80% of deaths 65+ is telling. And good reminder to not be sending kids over to see grandparents, as difficult as that may be.

*Side note -- Not sure if you guys face this, but my 79-yo parents are more stubborn than a donkey, and will not allow us to shop for them, etc. At least they've minimized going out otherwise to runs to pick up food now.