Everpack said:
The puzzling part of all of this is why are Americans not dying? These other countries have seen exponential daily death tolls once it hits. The last six days saw us lose 8, 5, 8, 8, 11 and 18 people. So far today it looks like we've lost another 11 with about six hours left on the daily clock. The first death in the States was on February 29th. We're 17 days into this and still haven't breached 100 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Deaths in large droves don't start until the local health system is overwhelmed and until those most likely to die are infected.
Population density in the United States is very low, so natural spread is slower even in our urban areas which are quasi rural compared to urban areas over seas
Italy has an average age of 47 and a population density of 532 per square mile
China has an average age of 39 and a population density of 375 per square mile
US has an average age of 38 and a population density of 94 per square mile
Density matters.
Density in China rises in some cities to 9000 per square mile. NYC is the only place in the US that comes close to such density so while the spread from major city to city may be as fast as other nations, the spread within urban areas will be slower because our areas are less dense.
We are probably 8-10 days before any large number of deaths because we have equipment and people to last that long in urban areas. Two weeks from now when the medical system is overtaxed and the equipment and supplies are down you will start to see a Katrinia like triage where those that are not likely to survive despite a herculean effort don't get that effort and the effort goes to the less critically ill. Some of it depends where the deep pockets are - a deep pocket here in the Triangle is one thing, a deep pocket in say Pikeville KY is another based on who you can plug into the system to provide care.
I like the athletic type