Coronavirus

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RunsWithWolves26
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Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
packgrad
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Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.


7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

GuerrillaPack
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Doesn't seem like many people are talking about this, but the CDC's own numbers say that the deaths claimed to be "caused by coronavirus" peaked around mid April (at supposedly 15,000 per week for the entire United States), and have steadily declined since that time to now only around 300 deaths in the entire nation in the last week.

So why is there this hysteria over the supposed "rise in cases"?? What about the fact that the number of deaths (by their own numbers) has plummeted to almost ZERO?

Harly anyone is even dying from this anymore.

Graph below from the CDC shows the weekly deaths for various age groups over the last 4 months.



CDC source for graph and data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Via ZeroHedge
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
TheStorm
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acslater1344 said:

PackMom said:

Acslater, how are you and your girlfriend doing?
We're doing pretty well! Thanks for asking. My gf still has some lingering coughing issues that come on at night when we're trying to get to sleep, but otherwise everything is back to normal. June was a strange month.
Very happy to hear that you feel you are both continuing to improve... hope that more steadily continues for both of you and hope that life in general starts getting more comfortable and enjoyable for you again. Please know that we have been thinking of you and hoping for a positive update.
TheStorm
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.


7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198


Man, I don't know how you continue to do it... Thanks for all of this!
redsteel33
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14-states-are-seeing-coronavirus-declines

The map, which was circulated to federal agencies involved in the coronavirus response on July 1, shows that 36 out of 50 states have experienced no "days of decrease in confirmed cases." Only 14 states show such decreases according to the graphic, and only nine of those have reached the critical threshold of 14 consecutive days of declining numbers of new infections, a critical metric according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The states showing decreases of at least a single day are Oregon, Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware and Hawaii.
packgrad
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Friend's grandmother recently died. Had been tested multiple times for Covid as she was in the short rows. She fell and had a brain hemorrhage and ultimately died. Hospital put cause of death as related to Covid. Family fought it to get it removed.

Anecdotal, but wonder how often it happens.
PackMom
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acslater1344 said:

PackMom said:

Acslater, how are you and your girlfriend doing?
We're doing pretty well! Thanks for asking. My gf still has some lingering coughing issues that come on at night when we're trying to get to sleep, but otherwise everything is back to normal. June was a strange month.
Glad to hear the good news, and I hope you both continue to recover fully and quickly!
GuerrillaPack
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packgrad said:

Friend's grandmother recently died. Had been tested multiple times for Covid as she was in the short rows. She fell and had a brain hemorrhage and ultimately died. Hospital put cause of death as related to Covid. Family fought it to get it removed.

Anecdotal, but wonder how often it happens.
Not anecdotal. This is an official policy of many nations, states, cities, and counties. The claimed "deaths from Covid" are being deliberately inflated. And this is also not speculation. This is now proven and admitted.

Here is a tweet from the official twitter account of the Toronto Public Health Dept, where they admit that they are including deaths as "caused" by covid even if someone supposedly had the virus and actually died from other causes (such as pneumonia, heart attack, etc):

"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Daviewolf83
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Staff
RunsWithWolves26 said:

Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
The information in the following tweet should give you a good view of the impact of testing increases over the past several months and particularly in June.

TheStorm
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Just numbers... from NCDHHS Daily Updates...

1. Confirmed Cases / Completed Tests (Running Average) - a) Carbon Copy of 6/20 Running Average, b)Carbon Copy of 6/22 Running Average (EXTENSION of Phase 2, implementation of MASK MANDATE), and c) safely below 5/22 Levels (START of Phase 2).

2. Confirmed Deaths / Completed Tests (Running Average) - a) LOWEST RUNNING AVERAGE SINCE APRIL 13, b) 38 OUT OF LAST 43 DAYS that the Running Average has decreased, c) 16 OUT OF LAST 17 DAYS that the Running Average has decreased, and d) RUNNING AVERAGE HAS DECREASED LAST 10 DAYS IN A ROW.

3. Confirmed Deaths / Confirmed Cases (Running Average) - a) FIRST TIME BELOW 2.00 % SINCE 4/13, b) LOWEST RUNNING AVERAGE SINCE APRIL 13, c) 38 OUT OF LAST 43 DAYS that the Running Average has decreased, d) 16 OUT OF LAST 17 DAYS that the Running Average has decreased, and e) RUNNING AVERAGE HAS DECREASED LAST 10 DAYS IN A ROW.

Curious as to what everybody's thoughts here might be.
RunsWithWolves26
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Daviewolf83 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
The information in the following tweet should give you a good view of the impact of testing increases over the past several months and particularly in June.




Thanks for that. I wonder how the outrage would be today if that had actually happened.
Wayland
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TheStorm said:




Man, I don't know how you continue to do it... Thanks for all of this!

Coping mechanism.
Mormad
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packgrad said:

Friend's grandmother recently died. Had been tested multiple times for Covid as she was in the short rows. She fell and had a brain hemorrhage and ultimately died. Hospital put cause of death as related to Covid. Family fought it to get it removed.

Anecdotal, but wonder how often it happens.


I'll address this. I can't speak to the individual case you speak of obviously.

1. At least where I am, nothing pays a hospital better than a subdural hematoma. I suspect there was no financial reason to label her covid, and there's really no underlying secondary gain issue (hysteria, politics, etc) I'd imagine.
2. I've never in my 20 yr career had a hospital or govt official influence what I listed as COD
3. Death certificates list multiple medical conditions, so including covid is fair
4. If you understand the pathophysiology of covid infections and the myriad systemic alterations that occur, then you would understand why there is difficulty with COD determination and why a patient with covid who dies of stroke, falls, MI, or other cause will also have covid listed. Would that patient have died of that disease at that time if they weren't infected with covid to tip them over the edge? If you know, then I might as well flush 4 yrs of med school, 6yrs of residency, and 20 yrs of practice right down the drain, because I often have no clue unless it's just obvious or fraud.
5. Covid is a losing game for health Care entities/ providers. Whatever uptick in reimbursement they might see in certain cases has been slaughtered by cost of care, length of stay, cancelled procedures, private pay customers, etc.

While I find the political antics maddening and unfounded fairly often, I have a really hard time understanding how inflating covid helps hospitals or providers in the least other than helping their constituents understand why they find themselves always preparing for the worst and hoping for the best while hoping their preparations will be completely unnecessary.
82TxPackFan
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Daviewolf83 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
The information in the following tweet should give you a good view of the impact of testing increases over the past several months and particularly in June.




Thanks for sharing. Amazing how inept the people making decisions regarding Covid are at using simple math concepts to guide decisions.
Wayland
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So finally got home and looked at the date of death chart today.

Deaths ADDED today:
7/1, 6/30(2), 6/29(2), 6/24, 6/21, 6/7, 5/31, 5/26 = 10 total NEW

Deaths REMOVED today:
6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16 = 9 total DELETED


Note that NC DHHS deaths by county showed a delta of -9 for Buncombe County today. (Changed from 38 to 29). The county reports 40 deaths on their dashboard.

I have no good answers for this at the moment.
packgrad
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She tested negative for Covid every time she was tested.
Mormad
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Yeah I gathered that. I just don't know why they'd do it. You have any idea from talking to fam?
Mormad
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You think they were originally labeled covid deaths and then changed when final COD was determined (death certificate signed, autopsy, records reviewed)?
Mormad
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You guys should check out Chris Ohl's talks from Baptist? He's an ID doc. Good info that's easy to listen to. Not political, just medical.
packgrad
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No.
Wayland
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Mormad said:

You think they were originally labeled covid deaths and then changed when final COD was determined (death certificate signed, autopsy, records reviewed)?


The county hasn't taken them down, so I don't know what to believe. If the state actually is cleaning up data, I give them props. But you can't make a change like that and not specifically note or acknowledge it.

I honestly don't know what to think about it. I only started tracking county data so don't know if this has occurred previously.
Pacfanweb
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Daviewolf83 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
The information in the following tweet should give you a good view of the impact of testing increases over the past several months and particularly in June.


My question about that graph is this:

Only sick/obvious symptomatic people were tested early on, so the positive % was obviously higher then. So it's not correct to just blow up those numbers of that particular time, is it?

We're testing more now, so obviously the positive rate has also gone down in comparison.
bigeric
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How many tests would have to have been performed during MAR/APR to achieve that number of positive results, using the current rate?
Like I said, if you can't get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
Daviewolf83
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Staff
Mormad said:

You guys should check out Chris Ohl's talks from Baptist? He's an ID doc. Good info that's easy to listen to. Not political, just medical.
I have watched all of his updates and I agree. Dr.Ohl gives very good, reasoned updates on Covid. He is very calm and rational and really tries to explain what is happening in layman's terms. His updates were posted by one of my son's teammate's father who works for Wake Forest School of Medicine. My sister-in-law also works at Baptist Hospital in administration. She has been with the hospital for over 35 years.
Mormad
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I was there from 91 to 01
Civilized
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Daviewolf83 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Does anyone know how many test the US is doing per day? Also, I see these numbers of new cases +50,000 in a day. Could it be because if more testing? Could it be because of something GP brought up that The Hill reported on that the CDC is combining positive antibody test with positive COVID19 test? One other question is do you believe these numbers being reported and what do you see happening in the month of July? A gradual flattening of things or for the spike to continue? Thank in advance for any answers provided.
The information in the following tweet should give you a good view of the impact of testing increases over the past several months and particularly in June.



Great visual, and context.

Info on relative number of tests being run now vs. 60 days ago is glaringly inadequate in most of these reports.

Thanks for sharing!
Civilized
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Mormad said:

packgrad said:

Friend's grandmother recently died. Had been tested multiple times for Covid as she was in the short rows. She fell and had a brain hemorrhage and ultimately died. Hospital put cause of death as related to Covid. Family fought it to get it removed.

Anecdotal, but wonder how often it happens.


I'll address this. I can't speak to the individual case you speak of obviously.

1. At least where I am, nothing pays a hospital better than a subdural hematoma. I suspect there was no financial reason to label her covid, and there's really no underlying secondary gain issue (hysteria, politics, etc) I'd imagine.
2. I've never in my 20 yr career had a hospital or govt official influence what I listed as COD
3. Death certificates list multiple medical conditions, so including covid is fair
4. If you understand the pathophysiology of covid infections and the myriad systemic alterations that occur, then you would understand why there is difficulty with COD determination and why a patient with covid who dies of stroke, falls, MI, or other cause will also have covid listed. Would that patient have died of that disease at that time if they weren't infected with covid to tip them over the edge? If you know, then I might as well flush 4 yrs of med school, 6yrs of residency, and 20 yrs of practice right down the drain, because I often have no clue unless it's just obvious or fraud.
5. Covid is a losing game for health Care entities/ providers. Whatever uptick in reimbursement they might see in certain cases has been slaughtered by cost of care, length of stay, cancelled procedures, private pay customers, etc.

While I find the political antics maddening and unfounded fairly often, I have a really hard time understanding how inflating covid helps hospitals or providers in the least other than helping their constituents understand why they find themselves always preparing for the worst and hoping for the best while hoping their preparations will be completely unnecessary.

This is really great, first-hand, front-line context. It's what I would have suspected (broad conspiracies require the complicity of too many people that have no aligned interests with falsifying the situation to make sense).

Thanks very much for sharing what you're seeing on the ground!
packgrad
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Didn't realize my friend was in on a conspiracy. I'll let him know.
Civilized
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packgrad said:

Didn't realize my friend was in on a conspiracy. I'll let him know.

I wasn't talking to you.

Unless you think getting MD's to falsely assert COVID as a contributing cause of death is a widespread thing, in which case I was.
packgrad
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Aside from 1, 3, 4, and 5 being inaccurate in my friend's situation, ok.
Mormad
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packgrad said:

Aside from 1, 3, 4, and 5 being inaccurate in my friend's situation, ok.


If you can find out more let us know. Could be really interesting, unless it was just a mistake or a misunderstanding or something.
packgrad
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Will do.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

So finally got home and looked at the date of death chart today.

Deaths ADDED today:
7/1, 6/30(2), 6/29(2), 6/24, 6/21, 6/7, 5/31, 5/26 = 10 total NEW

Deaths REMOVED today:
6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16 = 9 total DELETED


Note that NC DHHS deaths by county showed a delta of -9 for Buncombe County today. (Changed from 38 to 29). The county reports 40 deaths on their dashboard.

I have no good answers for this at the moment.
It appears that Buncombe County has also removed 10 deaths from their county dashboard and now report 30 instead of 40. So it remains possible that there was a reconciliation and that deaths that were not COVID19 were identified as COVID19. However, I have yet to see a statement on the correction.

Found it. It was 10 deaths misidentified in an LTC facility that after review were found not to be COVID.


Quote:

A long term care facility in our county that has been heavily affected by COVID-19 informed our communicable disease staff that the Medical Director of the facility conducted a review of the medical records of the residents of their facility who had died during their COVID-19 outbreak. As a result of that review, the facility administration reported to us that they had incorrectly reported the deaths of 10 residents of their facility as COVID-related deaths.

Not sure how these things get this far, that they are just going 'oops' now. But appreciate the reconciliation.
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