Saw an article where the CDC said the death rate for Covid19 is extremely low. Figured that was the case from the start with all the weird reporting ways things are done.

Check this article out, wayland.

Thank you for your first hand insight and information.
A lot of different theories out there about practically everything related to Covid. Good to hear from someone who is closer to the situation than most. Opinions will surely vary , and as you mentioned , medicine can not move but so fast and be as accurate as possible.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

---

7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

---

7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

---

7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

---

7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

Interesting thread here (best to read all 9 tweets). Ashamed to say I'm not familiar with Simpson's Paradox?

It used to be wait 2 weeks. Now, it's wait 8 weeks. Next, it's wait until November. Ridiculous.

And here is a response to that thread. Again read the thread.

https://t.co/iCFlOk6CDC

....dozens of NYCs seems absurd at both first glance AND when I read additional information.

I guess we can bookmark and see soon enough...

Interesting read as well, thanks. It's so damn hard to wade through through the data on this thing.

I swear, for some reason, I feel like I've heard that somewhere before. Hmm, maybe about 3 months ago. At least this tweet didn't say 2.2mil or whatever would die from this. I guess hundreds of thousands in an improvement. The fact that people still believe morons like this is fascinating to me but I guess that's just the way it works.

Regarding ICU usage data:

In normal times, icus are approx 80 percent full of non covid patients.

During covid, these numbers are down as fewer surgeries are done that require ICU care, less people driving, less people seeking care and maybe dying at home, whatever.

I'm not of the opinion that we can look at the lack of current ICU shortage and feel confident we can't get in trouble really quickly. If icus are typically pretty full of non covid patients, it doesn't take a big spike to stress the system.

We opened up old women's hospital to become a covid center.

Houston opened up its children's hospital to adult patients. If you got a kid with congenital adrenal hypoplasia who gets sick and needs admission, you aren't gonna be too happy about that scenario with your 2yo.

A bunch of NYs may be hyperbolic, but a lack of social responsibility among us all can lead to a significant uptick in potentially avoidable infections and further delay in what we all want. I personally think we're seeing that in Cali, Florida, Texas.

I've seen and heard all the arguments and explanations. But I've always thought common things are common and usually the simplest explanation is the right one. The is a virus doing what viruses do, and doing it efficiently from what I can tell. It leaves some destruction in its wake, and while the apparently expendable old and infirm is mostly affected, every once in a while the unexpected loved one is left all FUBAR. There are simple things we can do responsibly to help reduce transmission until a treatment is found that may eradicate it. There are consequences if we don't, and it's a personal choice rather or not those are acceptable to you. Maybe we should accept that this is the new world order and some will get it and add to the herd and some will just die or be left with some morbidity. Idk. Seems harsh, but so is this alternative life we're all living.

It'll be really interesting to see who's right. I suspect it'll be Mr paradox, but what if it's the doctor scientist dad? Who and what are you willing to risk until we know? That's my dilemma honestly.

Totally get it, my brother. Many many share your frustration.

Agree...I'm waiting for the Governor to shut it back down....it's gonna happen

Mormad said:

---

Totally get it, my brother. Many many share your frustration.

---

Just to clarify. My response wasn't an attack on you. Just a response in general.

statefan91 said:

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statefan91 said:

---

...

---

...

---

nm

ncsupack1 said:

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Agree...I'm waiting for the Governor to shut it back down....it's gonna happen

---

I'd much prefer stricter enforcement of masks-wearing and social distancing protocols. There should be a national mask mandate (either applied federally or applied unanimously at the state level). Wearing masks is such low-hanging fruit.

When around others masks should be non-negotiable unless you've got a doctor's note or in very special circumstances, and flouting social gathering protocols like hosting or attending large parties should be a citable offense. It's so dumb there are still states out there not requiring masks. Throwing or attending "COVID raffle parties" should be treated like serving alcohol to minors.

But 'Shutting it all down' is just too damaging to our economy and at some point politicians have to listen to their constituents when public opinion is so pronounced.

What do you think the support would currently be for shutting it back down again? 7%? 12%? Whatever the number is, my guess is that it's incredibly low.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

---

7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

---

7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

---

7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

---

7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

---

7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.

Mostly Europe discussion, but touches on the US a little later in the video. Just things to think about, certainly not sure of the validity of all this.

On rt.live, NC has fared fairly well. So I was digging around their site a little and found this graph which adjusts for the number of tests done.

It feels like a good representation of how I have always kind of visualized the case spread in NC. We've just kind of existed in a C19 purgatory with the slow burn rolling along. Much different than the 'cases are high sky is falling' that media portrays.

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

---

7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

---

7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

---

7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

---

7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

---

7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,0136,838


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.

---

7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.

Quote:

---

Local data, based on an analysis of 766 patients,indicate that by day 15 from onset of illness, 30% of all COVID-19 patients are PCR-negative by nasopharyngeal swab, this rises to 68% by day 21 and 88% by day 28 and by day 33, 95% of all patients are negative by PCR(NCID data). While the duration of viral shedding by PCR may extend to a month and sometimes longer for a small group of patients, and several jurisdictions including Singapore have been using it to guide de-isolation and discharge policies, it is important to note that viral RNA detection by PCR does not equate to infectiousness or viable virus.

Based on the accumulated data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic individuals may begin around 2 days before the onset of symptoms,and persists for about 7-10 days after the onset of symptoms. Active viral replication drops quickly after the first week, and viable virus was not found after the second week of illness despite the persistence of PCR detection of RNA. These findings are supported by epidemiologic, microbiologic and clinical data.These new findings allow for revised discharge criteria based on the data on the time course of infectiousness rather than the absence of RNA detection by PCR testing, taking into consideration both the clinical and public health perspectives, including the individual patient's physical and mental well-being. In addition, given these findings, resources can focus on testing persons with acute respiratory symptoms and suspected COVID-19 in early presentation, allowing timelier public health intervention and containment.

---

https://www.ams.edu.sg/view-pdf.aspx?file=media%5c5556_fi_331.pdf&ofile=Period+of+Infectivity+Position+Statement+(final)+23-5-20+(logos).pdf

Out of Singapore.

I may be in the minority, but I think a 3% national death rate from a virus is a really big deal.

I'm not as upset about media hysteria over this particular issue as many here. They are not writing policy, and they aren't advisors to those who do I guess. They just inform the masses, and if they can scare people into wearing masks, washing their hands, and staying apart then they're helping do our jobs. Those that complain that healthcare doesn't do enough preventative medicine are likely the same ones complaining about these preventative measures for covid. People love to complain but hate to act responsibly. It's the same whether it's diabetes, heart disease, smoking, or riding without a helmet. I can preach it til I'm blue in the face but I can't take the fork out of hands, the cigarette out of the mouth, or put the mask on the face. I'm admittedly talking out of both sides of my mouth, because I feel very differently about to media's role in politics lol, and yes I see the irony. Oh well, we all have our things.

No other opinion to come to at this point other than our numbers are being manipulated for political purposes... everything still trending down (cases / tests continues to stay FLAT despite cherry picking where these more targeted tests are now getting done)... so we have to manipulate the hospitalizations by changing the admit criteria so that we can continue to fear-monger to our in-state population - and stay relevant on CNN in the national conversation.

I live on an island on the NC coast that sees a 40,000 population turnover every single weekend... the only people wearing masks down here are us "idiot" locals who actually thinks it means anything to anybody anymore... we are nothing but pawns at this point.

Mormad said:

---

I may be in the minority, but I think a 3% national death rate from a virus is a really big deal..[...]..People love to complain but hate to act responsibly.

---

Couldn't agree more with these two points.

Wayland said:

---

Mormad said:

---

I may be in the minority, but I think a 3% national death rate from a virus is a really big deal.

I'm not as upset about media hysteria over this particular issue as many here. They are not writing policy, and they aren't advisors to those who do I guess. They just inform the masses, and if they can scare people into wearing masks, washing their hands, and staying apart then they're helping do our jobs. Those that complain that healthcare doesn't do enough preventative medicine are likely the same ones complaining about these preventative measures for covid. People love to complain but hate to act responsibly. It's the same whether it's diabetes, heart disease, smoking, or riding without a helmet. I can preach it til I'm blue in the face but I can't take the fork out of hands, the cigarette out of the mouth, or put the mask on the face. I'm admittedly talking out of both sides of my mouth, because I feel very differently about to media's role in politics lol, and yes I see the irony. Oh well, we all have our things.

---

How things are in NC right now, is about how I think things should have been this entire time (except that schools should be running). Smart social distancing, precautions, all that jazz.

The problem is the media has gone so far overboard they are causing people to basically mentally break. It is going to take years to recover and for some of these people just to be comfortable leaving the house again (if ever). There is a real risk to this, it is serious... it can be very serious even deadly. We should take proper precautions.

Those precautions do not include locking our children inside for years because it is scary out there and the virus is going to get them. But that is where we are, I see all these people that I once thought rational who are scared to have their kids ever leave the house again.

There is a balance between, let's take the proper precautions and OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE TOMORROW DONT YOU SEE.

And the media is presenting the YOU ARE ALL GOING TO DIE case.

The media should inform, not panic. What they are doing is irresponsible. We can agree to disagree on that point.

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Agreed.

I have several friends (late 20s) that seem to be scared to leave the house. Grocery Store trips are like preparing for armageddon and they won't come out to see any friends. Thet are becoming socially isolated and it's hurting them. The are also extremely defensive when I make any attempt to coax them out of the house to see eachother.

TheStorm said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Mormad said:

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I may be in the minority, but I think a 3% national death rate from a virus is a really big deal.

I'm not as upset about media hysteria over this particular issue as many here. They are not writing policy, and they aren't advisors to those who do I guess. They just inform the masses, and if they can scare people into wearing masks, washing their hands, and staying apart then they're helping do our jobs. Those that complain that healthcare doesn't do enough preventative medicine are likely the same ones complaining about these preventative measures for covid. People love to complain but hate to act responsibly. It's the same whether it's diabetes, heart disease, smoking, or riding without a helmet. I can preach it til I'm blue in the face but I can't take the fork out of hands, the cigarette out of the mouth, or put the mask on the face. I'm admittedly talking out of both sides of my mouth, because I feel very differently about to media's role in politics lol, and yes I see the irony. Oh well, we all have our things.

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But what if it's not 3%? What if it's closer to 1% or even a little less because of the hundreds of thousands of cases that went untested and unaccounted for. Would that be as big a deal to you? This is not a shot at you, just a question in general.

As for the media scaring people into something. IMO, it is not the responsibility of the media to scare the public into anything. It is the responsibility of the media to present ACCURATE and TRUTHFUL information to the public, which we all know, is not something they have been or even will begin to do.

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North Carolina's own numbers are 1.876% of Confirmed Cases... and as we now know - even that is exaggerated...

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The guy isn't taking about the death rate among those with covid. He's saying that covid deaths currently make up 3% of the daily deaths in this country. That, to me, is a big number. If heart disease accounted for 3% these days I'd throw a party. But that number for a viral outbreak when all those other well known killers still exist is eye opening to me.

For NC, here are the CFR's by age group. Of course, we all know the CFR is not the true measure for how deadly the virus is for people. The IFR is a much better measure, but it can be more difficult to calculate, since you have to estimate the actual number of cases from serology testing and other methods. Given the high percentage of asymptomatic patients with Covid-19, estimating actual cases is even more complicated and why the serology studies being conducted are so important to our understanding of actual mortality rates.

CFR by Age Group:
0-17 = 0%
18-24 = 0% <== reportedly 4 people under the age of 24 have died and at least 2 of these had pre-existing conditions
24-49 = 0.21%
50-64 = 1.48%
65-74 = 6.25%
75+ = 18.45%

Overall CFR for NC = 1.88%

The study being conducted by Wake Forest Baptist Health recently indicated 12-14% of people in NC have the antibodies for Covid-19. The study is on-going, but these are the latest published results. If you apply these percentages to NC's overall population, it would imply an IFR of 0.095% to 0.11%. The study does carry some positive bias (the study does not mention any adjustments for this bias), since it is not a purely random study and as such, the 12-14% could be lower. If you conservatively assume the study is off by factor of 2 (I doubt it is off this much, but I am being very conservative), the infection rate could be in the 6-7% range. If apply these lower percentages to the overall population, it would imply an IFR of 0.19% to 0.22%. Either way, the IFR is significantly lower than the 1.88% CFR calculated from the known cases and deaths.