Democratic Debates

23,020 Views | 310 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by IseWolf22
Glasswolf
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cowboypack02 said:

Glasswolf said:

If Biden stays above the 20% mark in California he will still head into next week with the delegate lead. Several big states up for grab including Michigan and Florida. IMHO having been involved with primaries since 1988, if Biden is still on top a week from today, it's over. There won't be a contested convention in July
I'd love to hear some of your experiences with the primaries and the way the delegate thing works.

I'll gather my thought together. Biggest thing was in 1992 being involved with Clinton's election and attending the mtv inaugural ball in dc. Just the hope we all felt. I've been heavily involved with all of Jim hunts campaigns
Redandwhite4life
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IseWolf22
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cowboypack02 said:

IseWolf22 said:

Bloomberg out, endorses Biden.
He's back to being the clear favorite, especially is Warren stays in.

Finally down to 4 candidates (lol Tulsi, even though I like her)
I like Tulsi too....but probably for different reasons
LOL, we probably agree on those reasons

I don't think she'd be a great president but there are a few issues I agree with her on where she has a Libertarian bent. Also it's entertaining whenever she flings mud at her own party.
IseWolf22
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Glasswolf said:

If Biden stays above the 20% mark in California he will still head into next week with the delegate lead. Several big states up for grab including Michigan and Florida. IMHO having been involved with primaries since 1988, if Biden is still on top a week from today, it's over. There won't be a contested convention in July
538 is predicting a contested convention at 61% That's probably an overestimate but there is certainly a major chance of a contested convention.

Biden has a 31% shot of winning outright and Bernie has an 8% shot according to their model.

That said, if Biden has more votes and delegates than anyone else, I don't think he'll have trouble winning over the super delegates like Bernie would
RunsWithWolves26
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IseWolf22 said:

Glasswolf said:

If Biden stays above the 20% mark in California he will still head into next week with the delegate lead. Several big states up for grab including Michigan and Florida. IMHO having been involved with primaries since 1988, if Biden is still on top a week from today, it's over. There won't be a contested convention in July
538 is predicting a contested convention at 61% That's probably an overestimate but there is certainly a major chance of a contested convention.

Biden has a 31% shot of winning outright and Bernie has an 8% shot according to their model.

That said, if Biden has more votes and delegates than anyone else, I don't think he'll have trouble winning over the super delegates like Bernie would



They also predicted trump had basically no chance. Lol. Regardless, it will be interesting for sure.
RunsWithWolves26
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I can only speak for myself but who Biden picks as his VP(should be actually get the nomination to represent the Dems) will go a long way in how I vote. I can't stand trump as a person but I can look at what he has done and see the good things he has done as well as the bad(at least to me.)

Knowing Biden is going to be a one term president, if he makes it through his first term, his VP nominee will be important to me when it comes down to who I will vote for. Now, if it is Bernie, I'm voting trump, holding my nose and throwing up, but voting for Trump.
IseWolf22
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538 predicted Trump had a 28.4% chance to win. Waaay higher than most others sites
RunsWithWolves26
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IseWolf22 said:

538 predicted Trump had a 28.4% chance to win. Waaay higher than most others sites


True but still very little. Hell, I watched election night until early morning and still didn't give him a chance to win when he actually won. Hahaha
statefan91
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Quote:

538 is predicting a contested convention at 61% That's probably an overestimate but there is certainly a major chance of a contested convention.

Biden has a 31% shot of winning outright and Bernie has an 8% shot according to their model.

That said, if Biden has more votes and delegates than anyone else, I don't think he'll have trouble winning over the super delegates like Bernie would
I think it will be Biden but I think the DNC will have to think about how they keep the progressives involved as the Bernie Bros fall by the wayside.

If it's Biden I think he will almost definitely have a female VP candidate with him. Potentially Kamala Harris or Klobuchar. They have to balance rounding out Biden's weakest areas of the country, finding someone that still excites the base but doesn't drive away swing voters.
IseWolf22
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People have been floating Stacy Abhrams as a potential VP for awhile. There will be pressure for a female, and most likely a black female. Personally I hope it's not Harris with her record on Civil Liberties
griff17matt
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IseWolf22 said:

People have been floating Stacy Abhrams as a potential VP for awhile. There will be pressure for a female, and most likely a black female. Personally I hope it's not Harris with her record on Civil Liberties
Kamala is terrible but she'll eviscerate Pence in any and all debate formats. Biden/Klobuchar would get a vote from me. What the hell has Stacey Abrams done to deserve a VP spot? Harris or Abrams would make me vote Libertarian. Sanders would make me vote for Trump.
statefan91
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I honestly don't think the VP matters very much - what has Pence done while in his position? A couple tie-breaking votes that were never in question for GOP. He's currently leading the Coronavirus response but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump dumps him for a Nikki Haley or someone like that.
IseWolf22
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statefan91 said:

I honestly don't think the VP matters very much - what has Pence done while in his position? A couple tie-breaking votes that were never in question for GOP. He's currently leading the Coronavirus response but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump dumps him for a Nikki Haley or someone like that.
I would agree with you in almost all cases...but not this one. Biden is 77 and the chance he makes it 8 years in good cognitive standing is low. His VP will be scrutinized more than most.
statefan91
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IseWolf22
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Final 2!

(+Tulsi)
griff17matt
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statefan91 said:

I honestly don't think the VP matters very much - what has Pence done while in his position? A couple tie-breaking votes that were never in question for GOP. He's currently leading the Coronavirus response but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump dumps him for a Nikki Haley or someone like that.
In the grand scheme of things maybe so but I believe John Adams said it best - "I am Vice President. In this I am nothing, but I may be everything." If Trump runs with Nikki Haley, I might vote for him regardless. I really like her, her stance on most things, and think she'd be great if something were to happen to Trump or if he gets impeached again or whatnot.

Sanders is a bridge too far for me. Harris is just a poor choice. Adams doesn't deserve it and I'd question his decision making if he chose her, tbh.
statefan91
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I don't know much about Haley and her time in SC, what accomplishments or stances would make you lean to Trump / Haley vs. say Biden / Klobuchar?

griff17matt
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statefan91 said:

I don't know much about Haley and her time in SC, what accomplishments or stances would make you lean to Trump / Haley vs. say Biden / Klobuchar?


Aside from the fact that I side with conservatives/libertarians on almost all fiscal/social issues? I side more with Libertarian aspects of social issues (ie leave me alone I leave you alone) and we MUST get someone that is fiscally responsible before we default as a country.

With that said, I like the fact that Haley seems to have huge stones and has stood up to Trump in the past and was STILL appointed by him to a significant political position on the world stage. She seems to be someone that at least attempts to find common ground with ideological foes. Maybe they don't always reach that common ground, but she doesn't seem to try to find nits to pick. For instance - ****** bathroom issue from a few years ago - she shot those bills down requiring people to use the bathroom according to their sexual organs. Might seem like a reasonable stance now, but that was quite the stfu to her base at the time.

My worry with the Dems like Biden and Klobuchar is that they'll fold when pressured by the stupid fringe of those on the left. Very similar to my worry with Trump, honestly. I'm confident that Haley can be his balls when he inevitably loses them. Can Klobuchar do the same with Uncle Joe? I'd wager probably so. Also, I'd be generally fine with either of these women leading the country if something were to happen to put them in that role. Harris, Warren, and Adams would not give me as much confidence.

Depending on debate performance and what they put forward, Biden/Klobuchar would get me to at least vote Independent/Libertarian unless Haley is VP. Sanders would get me to vote Trump 100 times out of 100 and I wouldn't even feel bad about it. Biden/"fake-woke pandering bull**** artist VP" would get me to vote Trump. *shrug*
IseWolf22
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Harris and Booker endorse Biden.

After adding in all the recent polls, 538 has updated to

Biden wins majority - 94%
Contested Convention - 5%
Bernie wins majority - 1%

A strong showing by Biden tomorrow could bury Bernie
statefan91
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IseWolf22 said:

Harris and Booker endorse Biden.

After adding in all the recent polls, 538 has updated to

Biden wins majority - 94%
Contested Convention - 5%
Bernie wins majority - 1%

A strong showing by Biden tomorrow could bury Bernie
Michigan and Florida are both trending to Biden. I hope Bernie and Progressives get behind Biden if he beats up on Bernie tomorrow and not drag this out.
PackBacker07
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This one's about over folks. Looks like Biden is raking it in tonight, including Michigan.
I once blocked Muggsy Bogues' shot at the Siskey YMCA.
IseWolf22
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PackBacker07 said:

This one's about over folks. Looks like Biden is raking it in tonight, including Michigan.
Yep, very sudden turnaround. It's Biden vs Trump unless something crazy happens (with Caronavirus and two septuagenarians you never know)
statefan91
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I think Biden will be able to claw-back a lot of the Obama then Trump voters that just hated Clinton or wouldn't vote for a woman. Exit polls so far have sort of confirmed much of that.

Interested in his choice of VP. I think he'll look at Senate ranks with Klobuchar, Booker, or Harris. Agreed with others earlier that I don't think Stacey Abrams doesn't get you anything.

Biden + Booker probably convinces people that nothing drastic will happen with their healthcare. Biden + Klobuchar may help solidify some of the ticket's Midwest appeal.
griff17matt
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statefan91 said:

I think Biden will be able to claw-back a lot of the Obama then Trump voters that just hated Clinton or wouldn't vote for a woman. Exit polls so far have sort of confirmed much of that.

Interested in his choice of VP. I think he'll look at Senate ranks with Klobuchar, Booker, or Harris. Agreed with others earlier that I don't think Stacey Abrams doesn't get you anything.

Biden + Booker probably convinces people that nothing drastic will happen with their healthcare. Biden + Klobuchar may help solidify some of the ticket's Midwest appeal.
His spat with the Michigan plant worker was...really strange and off-putting. I don't understand how he thinks he can talk to someone like that and it be okay. I suppose his base is all for putting a "gun nut" in his place much like Trump's would be if this was someone touting for abortion rights or something. Still...weird dude...
cowboypack02
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griff17matt said:

statefan91 said:

I think Biden will be able to claw-back a lot of the Obama then Trump voters that just hated Clinton or wouldn't vote for a woman. Exit polls so far have sort of confirmed much of that.

Interested in his choice of VP. I think he'll look at Senate ranks with Klobuchar, Booker, or Harris. Agreed with others earlier that I don't think Stacey Abrams doesn't get you anything.

Biden + Booker probably convinces people that nothing drastic will happen with their healthcare. Biden + Klobuchar may help solidify some of the ticket's Midwest appeal.
His spat with the Michigan plant worker was...really strange and off-putting. I don't understand how he thinks he can talk to someone like that and it be okay. I suppose his base is all for putting a "gun nut" in his place much like Trump's would be if this was someone touting for abortion rights or something. Still...weird dude...
I would agree with you, but that's not the first time that he has done that recently. I think that keeping Biden out of the spotlight is gonna be what keeps him going. I think once he ends up having to stay at a debate and speak for long periods of time he is going to have major issues. I'm curious to see how the moderators save him from himself
IseWolf22
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cowboypack02 said:

griff17matt said:

statefan91 said:

I think Biden will be able to claw-back a lot of the Obama then Trump voters that just hated Clinton or wouldn't vote for a woman. Exit polls so far have sort of confirmed much of that.

Interested in his choice of VP. I think he'll look at Senate ranks with Klobuchar, Booker, or Harris. Agreed with others earlier that I don't think Stacey Abrams doesn't get you anything.

Biden + Booker probably convinces people that nothing drastic will happen with their healthcare. Biden + Klobuchar may help solidify some of the ticket's Midwest appeal.
His spat with the Michigan plant worker was...really strange and off-putting. I don't understand how he thinks he can talk to someone like that and it be okay. I suppose his base is all for putting a "gun nut" in his place much like Trump's would be if this was someone touting for abortion rights or something. Still...weird dude...
I would agree with you, but that's not the first time that he has done that recently. I think that keeping Biden out of the spotlight is gonna be what keeps him going. I think once he ends up having to stay at a debate and speak for long periods of time he is going to have major issues. I'm curious to see how the moderators save him from himself
Eh, I don't know about that. Personally I'm expecting Trump/Biden debates to be hilarious. Both will ramble incoherently on several points. It will be like watching two nursing home residents yelling at each other.
statefan91
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nm
statefan91
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Does this qualify as socialism if they are bailing out the markets? Just want to make sure I understand the distinctions between when government giving away money is good and bad.
1MANWOLFPAK
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You serious?
statefan91 said:



Does this qualify as socialism if they are bailing out the markets? Just want to make sure I understand the distinctions between when government giving away money is good and bad.
grandpack1
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I was hoping and praying that the Dems would come up with someone that I could get excited about. Really hoping that. I don't really like our president. Just do not think he is a very good person although I agree with him on certain items that I think are important. But some of his beliefs truly turn me off. And he needs to stay off social media. I think we need leadership sometimes from a president that is presidential.

That being said, if Sanders would have won, I absolutely would be voting for Trump and even supporting him.

Was excited when Biden came back against Sanders. But watching Biden in action is hard to do. I wonder sometimes if something is wrong with him. The dispute with the Worker was weird.

What I want to know is if we are going to ever have another good president? Seriously.
IseWolf22
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grandpack1 said:

I was hoping and praying that the Dems would come up with someone that I could get excited about. Really hoping that. I don't really like our president. Just do not think he is a very good person although I agree with him on certain items that I think are important. But some of his beliefs truly turn me off. And he needs to stay off social media. I think we need leadership sometimes from a president that is presidential.

That being said, if Sanders would have won, I absolutely would be voting for Trump and even supporting him.

Was excited when Biden came back against Sanders. But watching Biden in action is hard to do. I wonder sometimes if something is wrong with him. The dispute with the Worker was weird.

What I want to know is if we are going to ever have another good president? Seriously.
2024?

Magic 8-ball says"Try again next time"
IseWolf22
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Debate last night was mildly interesting. Definitely more coherent than the 7+ candidates yelling over each other. I actually like it MUCH better with no audience. The crowd reactions add nothing to the debate and just break up flow.

This debate likely cements Biden just because he didn't flop. Bernie's best chance was Biden being destroyed in a 1 on 1 or having a major senior moment on national TV. That didn't happen and Biden will likely take an overwhelming lead when the next set of states vote.
 
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