time to own up to my predictions for our athletes. Some were pretty dang good. Some were awful in both directions. Some athletes were just complete unknowns. Next is Distance. Here's what i said:
Distance
Ian Shanklin - He will compete in the 5k and 10k this season. It's his last season after a long respectable career with NC State with multiple all american finishes in Cross Country and multiple ACC titles on the track. I think he's past the point of having a time goal, though a new 10k PB could be in the cards for sure. He's looking to compete for another ACC title, probably in the 10k, and he's looking to score at nationals again probably in the 10k.
Ian Harrison - Will probably run the gamut from 1500-10k, but i expect the focus to be on either the 5k or 10k come ACC's and regionals. He's made massive improvements over the last 12 months and the future is very bright for him. His mile/1500 improved by ~4 seconds from last outdoors, his track 5k improved by ~20 seconds, and his 10k from nationals was ~20 seconds faster than his track 10k PB. The sky is the limit seemingly. If i had to set goals, i would start with qualification for nationals in whatever event he chooses to focus on. Timewise, i think he's in 3:44-45 shape in the 1500 so cropping a couple of seconds off that for a 3:42 ish would be fantastic and set him up for a sub 4 mile next indoors. In the 5k coming off a 13:35 indoors, a sub 13:30 could be on the cards. And in the 10k, i think he's figured it out after his great xc campaign so maybe a 29:30 is in the cards.
Brett Gardner - Will probably run a lot of 1500's and 5k's but end up focusing on the 3k steeplechase. Another guy who showed massive improvements the last 12 months. He improved his mile/1500 by 2-3 seconds, he ran a 15:48 in the 5k and finished an impressive 64th at nationals in a 10k. He dropped a 8:37 in the steeplechase last outdoors and with his improvements a sub 8:30 and a potential school record could be on the cards. I'd love to see him compete for an ACC title and qualify for nationals in the event. Any improvement on his 1500 and 5k times would be gravy considering they aren't the focus likely.
Gavin Gaynor - Will likely focus on the 1500 and 3k steeplechase. After redshirting indoors where he dropped a 3:57 mile unattached, he's clearly in good form. A sub 3:40 1500 could and maybe should be in the cards. I'd also look for his increased speed to push him closer to sub 8:40 in the steeplechase.
Robinson Snider - Similar to Harrison he'll probably run all between the 1500 and 10k. He's tended to focus on the 10k later in the season for ACC's and regionals. has continued improving last track season and in cross country before redshirting indoors due to a lack of eligibility. Comes in with a 13:49 5k and 29:59 10k. I'd expect him to push for a sub 13:40 5k and sub 29:40 10k.
David Vorbach - Will compete in the 5k and maybe dabble in the 10k. His sub 13:42 5k indoors sets him up well to chase a good time outdoors, conservatively 13:40, aggressively 13:35. I'd also like to see him potentially get top 15 at ACC outdoors in the 5k.
Zach Hughes - Will focus on the 800m. Wasn't able to improve upon his PB in the 800 last season, but he did run a new school record in the 1000m as well as a new PB in the mile. He's the current school record holder in the 800 outdoors with a 1:49.12. Given he wasn't able to improve in indoors, anything sub 1:49 would be a really good showing this season.
Kyle Durham - Will also focus on the 800m. Has never been the best indoors runner but this wasn't his best season other than setting a new PB in the mile. Has the 2nd fastest time in school history outdoors with a 1:49.52. Given his indoors season, a new PB should be the goal here. A sub 1:49 would be amazing.
HM: Dan McGoey & Patrick Gibbons - McGoey was consistently in the top 7 in Cross Country before getting injured and redshirting indoors. If he runs and is healthy a sub 14:00 5k should definitely be in the cards for him. Gibbons isn't really ready to be competitive at the ACC level as a true freshman, but while researching this i noticed that he improved his time in every single race he ran in indoors. Over the mile he lowered his time over 4 races from a 4:23 to a 4:17 to a 4:16 to a 4:13. And then he switched focus over the 800 where he came in with a high school PB of 1:57 and opened with a 1:53.6 and then ran a 1:52.6 at ACC's. With that kind of progression a sub 3:50 1500 and sub 1:52 800 could be in the cards.
Ian Shanklin ran one 1500 at Raleigh Relays then never raced again, presumably due to injury. Tough way to end a legendary NC State career.
Ian Harrison and Brett Gardner were the 2 & 3 behind Shanklin for much of the XC and indoor seasons. But both never ran (or completed) a race this season. Nothing was ever announced but it has to be assumed that this was a planned redshirt and a 5th year of running is planned in 2024-25 for both of them (fingers crossed it wasn't just injury).
Gavin Gaynor has had a brilliant season. Didn't run the steeplechase but mostly because he has been so good at the 1500. He hasn't hit the PB goal i set of sub 3:40 (though he has a 3:40.05) but mostly because he's been either winning the fast races like Penn Relays or just hitting qualify marks in championship style races. He's qualified for nationals which is bigger than any PB.
Robinson Snider seems like he is out of outdoor eligibility which i hadn't realized
David Vorbach also didn't run in Outdoors, unclear as to why
Zach Hughes, didn't set a new PB but slowly worked his times back down after a slower indoors campaign and was right at his PB by ACC's running 1:49.1x multiple times.
Kyle Durham had a pretty poor season by my expectations. Never broke 1:50 all year, so he'll need to perform again before he's on my all-acc radar.
For the honorable mentions Patrick Gibbons redshirted this season so thats a wash. Dan McGoey i was hoping for a sub 14:00 5k but it wasn't in the cards. But where i was wrong negatively about McGoey i was wrong positively about JJ Malach. While he didn't hit any crazy time marks, he showed up when it mattered and scored points by finishing 7th in the 10k at ACC's. That kind of finish and the names he beat shows potential for a 10k PB much better than what he currently owns.
Distance
Ian Shanklin - He will compete in the 5k and 10k this season. It's his last season after a long respectable career with NC State with multiple all american finishes in Cross Country and multiple ACC titles on the track. I think he's past the point of having a time goal, though a new 10k PB could be in the cards for sure. He's looking to compete for another ACC title, probably in the 10k, and he's looking to score at nationals again probably in the 10k.
Ian Harrison - Will probably run the gamut from 1500-10k, but i expect the focus to be on either the 5k or 10k come ACC's and regionals. He's made massive improvements over the last 12 months and the future is very bright for him. His mile/1500 improved by ~4 seconds from last outdoors, his track 5k improved by ~20 seconds, and his 10k from nationals was ~20 seconds faster than his track 10k PB. The sky is the limit seemingly. If i had to set goals, i would start with qualification for nationals in whatever event he chooses to focus on. Timewise, i think he's in 3:44-45 shape in the 1500 so cropping a couple of seconds off that for a 3:42 ish would be fantastic and set him up for a sub 4 mile next indoors. In the 5k coming off a 13:35 indoors, a sub 13:30 could be on the cards. And in the 10k, i think he's figured it out after his great xc campaign so maybe a 29:30 is in the cards.
Brett Gardner - Will probably run a lot of 1500's and 5k's but end up focusing on the 3k steeplechase. Another guy who showed massive improvements the last 12 months. He improved his mile/1500 by 2-3 seconds, he ran a 15:48 in the 5k and finished an impressive 64th at nationals in a 10k. He dropped a 8:37 in the steeplechase last outdoors and with his improvements a sub 8:30 and a potential school record could be on the cards. I'd love to see him compete for an ACC title and qualify for nationals in the event. Any improvement on his 1500 and 5k times would be gravy considering they aren't the focus likely.
Gavin Gaynor - Will likely focus on the 1500 and 3k steeplechase. After redshirting indoors where he dropped a 3:57 mile unattached, he's clearly in good form. A sub 3:40 1500 could and maybe should be in the cards. I'd also look for his increased speed to push him closer to sub 8:40 in the steeplechase.
Robinson Snider - Similar to Harrison he'll probably run all between the 1500 and 10k. He's tended to focus on the 10k later in the season for ACC's and regionals. has continued improving last track season and in cross country before redshirting indoors due to a lack of eligibility. Comes in with a 13:49 5k and 29:59 10k. I'd expect him to push for a sub 13:40 5k and sub 29:40 10k.
David Vorbach - Will compete in the 5k and maybe dabble in the 10k. His sub 13:42 5k indoors sets him up well to chase a good time outdoors, conservatively 13:40, aggressively 13:35. I'd also like to see him potentially get top 15 at ACC outdoors in the 5k.
Zach Hughes - Will focus on the 800m. Wasn't able to improve upon his PB in the 800 last season, but he did run a new school record in the 1000m as well as a new PB in the mile. He's the current school record holder in the 800 outdoors with a 1:49.12. Given he wasn't able to improve in indoors, anything sub 1:49 would be a really good showing this season.
Kyle Durham - Will also focus on the 800m. Has never been the best indoors runner but this wasn't his best season other than setting a new PB in the mile. Has the 2nd fastest time in school history outdoors with a 1:49.52. Given his indoors season, a new PB should be the goal here. A sub 1:49 would be amazing.
HM: Dan McGoey & Patrick Gibbons - McGoey was consistently in the top 7 in Cross Country before getting injured and redshirting indoors. If he runs and is healthy a sub 14:00 5k should definitely be in the cards for him. Gibbons isn't really ready to be competitive at the ACC level as a true freshman, but while researching this i noticed that he improved his time in every single race he ran in indoors. Over the mile he lowered his time over 4 races from a 4:23 to a 4:17 to a 4:16 to a 4:13. And then he switched focus over the 800 where he came in with a high school PB of 1:57 and opened with a 1:53.6 and then ran a 1:52.6 at ACC's. With that kind of progression a sub 3:50 1500 and sub 1:52 800 could be in the cards.
Ian Shanklin ran one 1500 at Raleigh Relays then never raced again, presumably due to injury. Tough way to end a legendary NC State career.
Ian Harrison and Brett Gardner were the 2 & 3 behind Shanklin for much of the XC and indoor seasons. But both never ran (or completed) a race this season. Nothing was ever announced but it has to be assumed that this was a planned redshirt and a 5th year of running is planned in 2024-25 for both of them (fingers crossed it wasn't just injury).
Gavin Gaynor has had a brilliant season. Didn't run the steeplechase but mostly because he has been so good at the 1500. He hasn't hit the PB goal i set of sub 3:40 (though he has a 3:40.05) but mostly because he's been either winning the fast races like Penn Relays or just hitting qualify marks in championship style races. He's qualified for nationals which is bigger than any PB.
Robinson Snider seems like he is out of outdoor eligibility which i hadn't realized
David Vorbach also didn't run in Outdoors, unclear as to why
Zach Hughes, didn't set a new PB but slowly worked his times back down after a slower indoors campaign and was right at his PB by ACC's running 1:49.1x multiple times.
Kyle Durham had a pretty poor season by my expectations. Never broke 1:50 all year, so he'll need to perform again before he's on my all-acc radar.
For the honorable mentions Patrick Gibbons redshirted this season so thats a wash. Dan McGoey i was hoping for a sub 14:00 5k but it wasn't in the cards. But where i was wrong negatively about McGoey i was wrong positively about JJ Malach. While he didn't hit any crazy time marks, he showed up when it mattered and scored points by finishing 7th in the 10k at ACC's. That kind of finish and the names he beat shows potential for a 10k PB much better than what he currently owns.