The other thing the irks me is this plan to offer boosters without any evidence that it's needed. You're basically yelling at people for not getting vaccinated and then turning around and giving them a great reason why they shouldn't get vaccinated. Bizarre
Coronavirus
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you're right, comrade lol
No chance I mandate my employees be vax'd. They are grown ass adults who can make their own decisions. Getting vax'd was right for me and I don't see how I should make that decision for others. On top of that try hiring people today. There are NO people looking for work!!! Washington is so out of touch with Main Street it infuriates me.
Btw OSHA does not have time for chasing this ***** An employee files a complaint and they send a letter. You reply to the letter and they leave you alone again. No chance OSHA has man power to follow through with this.
Btw OSHA does not have time for chasing this ***** An employee files a complaint and they send a letter. You reply to the letter and they leave you alone again. No chance OSHA has man power to follow through with this.
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Here's the thing I wonder with OSHA. They are responsible for workplace safety and ensuring a safe working environment, but if a company's entire workforce is working from home (I have been required to work remote since March '20), how does OSHA have the right to enforce a safe working environment? Working remotely, I am of no risk to any of my fellow co-workers if I am unvaccinated.WPNfamily said:
No chance I mandate my employees be vax'd. They are grown ass adults who can make their own decisions. Getting vax'd was right for me and I don't see how I should make that decision for others. On top of that try hiring people today. There are NO people looking for work!!! Washington is so out of touch with Main Street it infuriates me.
Btw OSHA does not have time for chasing this ***** An employee files a complaint and they send a letter. You reply to the letter and they leave you alone again. No chance OSHA has man power to follow through with this.
Fear mongering isn't supposed to make senseDaviewolf83 said:Here's the thing I wonder with OSHA. They are responsible for workplace safety and ensuring a safe working environment, but if a company's entire workforce is working from home (I have been required to work remote since March '20), how does OSHA have the right to enforce a safe working environment? Working remotely, I am of no risk to any of my fellow co-workers if I am unvaccinated.WPNfamily said:
No chance I mandate my employees be vax'd. They are grown ass adults who can make their own decisions. Getting vax'd was right for me and I don't see how I should make that decision for others. On top of that try hiring people today. There are NO people looking for work!!! Washington is so out of touch with Main Street it infuriates me.
Btw OSHA does not have time for chasing this ***** An employee files a complaint and they send a letter. You reply to the letter and they leave you alone again. No chance OSHA has man power to follow through with this.
Wow that is a great question. Another reason why this won't work. Common sense governing is long gone. At this point I have to think Washington thinks we are all stupid.Daviewolf83 said:Here's the thing I wonder with OSHA. They are responsible for workplace safety and ensuring a safe working environment, but if a company's entire workforce is working from home (I have been required to work remote since March '20), how does OSHA have the right to enforce a safe working environment? Working remotely, I am of no risk to any of my fellow co-workers if I am unvaccinated.WPNfamily said:
No chance I mandate my employees be vax'd. They are grown ass adults who can make their own decisions. Getting vax'd was right for me and I don't see how I should make that decision for others. On top of that try hiring people today. There are NO people looking for work!!! Washington is so out of touch with Main Street it infuriates me.
Btw OSHA does not have time for chasing this ***** An employee files a complaint and they send a letter. You reply to the letter and they leave you alone again. No chance OSHA has man power to follow through with this.
OSHA enforcement of this is like asking the hall monitor to write down all people in hall during a stampede. It just can't work and I can't see how anyone would believe it would.
Yes, this will be interesting to watch. The focus is on the loudest -- whom are generally opposed to all-things Biden; but the majority may ultimately be many who voted for him.TheStorm said:It will only be enforced in regard to white federal employees. There will be a much larger percentage of blacks that won't get vaccinated in comparison to whites.Oldsouljer said:A very good question, I hope it's addressed in court soon. He's already declared that Fed employees be jacked up or be removed from their jobs. I particularly resent that because while I understood that my rights weren't the same in military service and my body wasn't my own, it was always understood that ended with the end of military service.FlossyDFlynt said:
Legitimate question - can OSHA have this power or is this like when he tried to go through the CDC for the eviction moratorium?
I'm vaccinated already, but it will be interesting to see how he navigates this. I think it's just another fear porn threat.
Good post
I also think it's completely infeasible for OSHA to try and deal with this. They'll probably go after a few workplaces in blue states for show, but ultimately I expect courts to block this before they can actually get this moving.
I also think it's completely infeasible for OSHA to try and deal with this. They'll probably go after a few workplaces in blue states for show, but ultimately I expect courts to block this before they can actually get this moving.
On an unrelated note, update on our numbers for the week:
279 hospitalized, average age 57
254 unvaccinated, average age 55
25 vaccinated, average age 70
43 ICU, average age 52
42 unvaccinated, average age 51
1 vaccinated, average age 73
27 on vent, average age 53
26 unvaccinated, average age 52
1 vaccinated, average age 73
279 hospitalized, average age 57
254 unvaccinated, average age 55
25 vaccinated, average age 70
43 ICU, average age 52
42 unvaccinated, average age 51
1 vaccinated, average age 73
27 on vent, average age 53
26 unvaccinated, average age 52
1 vaccinated, average age 73
PackPA2015 said:
On an unrelated note, update on our numbers for the week:
279 hospitalized, average age 57
254 unvaccinated, average age 55
25 vaccinated, average age 70
43 ICU, average age 52
42 unvaccinated, average age 51
1 vaccinated, average age 73
27 on vent, average age 53
26 unvaccinated, average age 52
1 vaccinated, average age 73
Previous Update.
Update before thatQuote:
Update from our hospital system:
236 hospitalized with an average age of 58. 214 of those are unvaccinated with an average age of 57. 22 are fully vaccinated with an average age of 68.
44 in the ICU with average age of 52. 42 of those are unvaccinated with an average age of 51. 2 are fully vaccinated with an average age of 70.
21 on the vent with an average age of 52. 20 unvaccinated with an average age of 52. 1 vaccinated with age of 56.
Quote:
Quote:
210 hospitalized (183 unvaccinated), 48 ICU (45 unvaccinated), 30 on vents (27 unvaccinated).
ICU numbers are stable/down, so I assume that is partly at least a capacity issue?
We have 82 total ICU beds across multiple campuses and as of 2 weeks ago, 74 were in use which, of course, includes non-COVID patients as well.
ETA: I haven't heard this week where the total ICU capacity is.
ETA: I haven't heard this week where the total ICU capacity is.
When the hospitals are reporting "ICU usage" that the media is expounding upon to drive this vaccination mandate are they referencing how many Covid patients there are? Just curious.PackPA2015 said:
We have 82 total ICU beds across multiple campuses and as of 2 weeks ago, 74 were in use which, of course, includes non-COVID patients as well.
ETA: I haven't heard this week where the total ICU capacity is.
And for the record I am fully vaccinated and have been. It was MY choice as it should be for 100 million others.
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PackPA - Thanks again for this information and the insight you provide. The numbers you report are in alignment with the latest demographics reported by NCDHHS. The graphs below show the hospitalization by age group and the vaccination rates by age group.PackPA2015 said:
On an unrelated note, update on our numbers for the week:
279 hospitalized, average age 57
254 unvaccinated, average age 55
25 vaccinated, average age 70
43 ICU, average age 52
42 unvaccinated, average age 51
1 vaccinated, average age 73
27 on vent, average age 53
26 unvaccinated, average age 52
1 vaccinated, average age 73
Good report.PackPA2015 said:
On an unrelated note, update on our numbers for the week:
279 hospitalized, average age 57
254 unvaccinated, average age 55
25 vaccinated, average age 70
43 ICU, average age 52
42 unvaccinated, average age 51
1 vaccinated, average age 73
27 on vent, average age 53
26 unvaccinated, average age 52
1 vaccinated, average age 73
So, message #1 in this sample size is that vaccinations help tremendously... second takeaway is the average age disparity between vaccinated and non-vaccinated in all three (3) categories, but even far more so in ICU and ventilator numbers... last takeaway is that 73.2% of unvaccinated are not (yet) in either of the two worst categories and that 92.0% of vaccinated are not (yet) in either of the two worst categories.
Doesn't look like a lot of school age children are being affected as of yet either.
Look forward to seeing Mormad's Cone system numbers as well... I remember him saying that their inside numbers were suggesting mid-September as their peak (which we are quickly approaching).
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I can give you this information, as it is reported by the hospitals to NCDHHS. The graph below shows the number of Covid patients in ICU and the number of non-Covid patients in ICU. I calculated it by subtracting the number of Covid-19 patients in ICU from the total number of full ICU beds. I just included data from 6/1/21, so the graphs are more easy to read, but I have the data from the time NCDHHS has reported it.BBW12OG said:When the hospitals are reporting "ICU usage" that the media is expounding upon to drive this vaccination mandate are they referencing how many Covid patients there are? Just curious.PackPA2015 said:
We have 82 total ICU beds across multiple campuses and as of 2 weeks ago, 74 were in use which, of course, includes non-COVID patients as well.
ETA: I haven't heard this week where the total ICU capacity is.
And for the record I am fully vaccinated and have been. It was MY choice as it should be for 100 million others.
The second chart shows overall ICU utilization and the average for the last 14 days. It does appear there has been a leveling off in ICU utilization and in the number of Covid patients in ICU. I do believe we are at peak for the Summer wave, but should be able to tell more in the updates from next week. If there was a Labor Day bump, it would be reflected by the data updates later next week.
So if this Qatar study holds. It appears protection against infection from Pfizer wanes after 6 months, but there is continued (although diminished) protection against severe disease.
Will be interesting to see more studies on the 'infection' portion.
Link to full study:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262584v1.full.pdf
I really do wonder what this means, in regards to a larger winter seasonal Delta wave.
Just as an aside. WRAL reported at the end of August that 35% of the cases in Wake County were vaccinated individuals.
It really speaks to the endemicity of the virus at this point.
Will be interesting to see more studies on the 'infection' portion.
The Pfizer COVID vaccine protects against severe disease and death for at least 6 months, while protection against asymptomatic and symptomatic infections wanes rapidly. pic.twitter.com/S4G55JUuDK
— Martin Kulldorff (@MartinKulldorff) September 10, 2021
Link to full study:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262584v1.full.pdf
I really do wonder what this means, in regards to a larger winter seasonal Delta wave.
Just as an aside. WRAL reported at the end of August that 35% of the cases in Wake County were vaccinated individuals.
It really speaks to the endemicity of the virus at this point.
What combination of % vaccinated plus those with natural immunity plus those that have already been infected do we need to reach before there cannot be another widespread wave?
It seems like 80% has kept waves from establishing in other places, with Delta as the predominant variantTheStorm said:
What combination of % vaccinated plus those with natural immunity plus those that have already been infected do we need to reach before there cannot be another widespread wave?
Maybe with hybrid or infection acquired immunity.statefan91 said:It seems like 80% has kept waves from establishing in other places, with Delta as the predominant variantTheStorm said:
What combination of % vaccinated plus those with natural immunity plus those that have already been infected do we need to reach before there cannot be another widespread wave?
The vaccine only immunity portion would all depend on HOW infectious those >6 months cases are, at least long term.
Of course this is all 'wave' vs 'wave with high hospital impacts'.
We might be getting waves forever. (See other endemic viruses).
Yes, the 80% number is inclusive of natural + vaccinated immunity
statefan91 said:
Yes, the 80% number is inclusive of natural + vaccinated immunity
The problem becomes with waning immunity (which the Qatar study puts at 6 months) and depending on the infectiousness of those post-vax +6 months cases (which MAY be less contagious?)...
As the immunity wanes your 80% number decreases. Now if people are widely vaccinated or previously infected you will have less severe cases, but cases will always be there.
We will know a lot more in 3 months.
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I would estimate we need between 70-80% to be fully vaccinated to turn this into an endemic cold/flu type of virus. Currently, it appears approximately 12% of the population in NC has been infected with Covid-19. Likely, a very small number of these have been infected more than once. We also know many people who have been infected were either asymptomatic and never got tested or they were sick and just stayed home. I have seen estimates as high as 20% of the population have been infected, since the beginning of the pandemic. The Delta variant, with its ability to infect more easily is also helping to increase the percentage of people who have natural immunity. This is a tough way to build natural immunity (compared with vaccination), but it has the same effect.TheStorm said:
What combination of % vaccinated plus those with natural immunity plus those that have already been infected do we need to reach before there cannot be another widespread wave?
In the video I posted earlier this week, Dr. Gandhi also said that she believes we will need to fully vaccinated about 80% of the population to turn this into a less severe endemic virus. She also pointed out that those countries that were more aggressive with their lockdown policies (Australia was highlighted by her, but I would include New Zealand as well) will actually have to vaccinated closer to 90-95% of their population, since fewer people in those countries have natural immunity from past infection.
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I totally agree. Even if immunity wanes and more people become infected, their cases should be less severe and this is the goal of making the virus endemic. It is why I posted yesterday that we have to stop freaking out when vaccinated people and people who were previously infected have a breakthrough case. In the vast majority of these cases, they will be mild and require no hospitalization or additional treatment. For those who are more severe, they will be treated with monoclonal antibodies and some of the emerging antivirals.Wayland said:statefan91 said:
Yes, the 80% number is inclusive of natural + vaccinated immunity
The problem becomes with waning immunity (which the Qatar study puts at 6 months) and depending on the infectiousness of those post-vax +6 months cases (which MAY be less contagious?)...
As the immunity wanes your 80% number decreases. Now if people are widely vaccinated or previously infected you will have less severe cases, but cases will always be there.
We will know a lot more in 3 months.
People who believe Covid will go away and no one will ever get sick again are living in a fantasy world. This is not how viruses work. Viruses become endemic and cases become more mild as immunity increases. To get immunity there are two ways - get vaccinated (this is the safer path to immunity) or through infection.
New COVID-19 data thru 9/8 » https://t.co/WYpIuQNOz4
— Mecklenburg County (@MeckCounty) September 10, 2021
Cases and hospitalizations decreased. The percent testing positive decreased slightly to 12.3%. pic.twitter.com/JpKzSTNiao
Which is why we need a major pivot in messaging away from anything that resembles 'CovidZERO'Daviewolf83 said:I totally agree. Even if immunity wanes and more people become infected, their cases should be less severe and this is the goal of making the virus endemic. It is why I posted yesterday that we have to stop freaking out when vaccinated people and people who were previously infected have a breakthrough case. In the vast majority of these cases, they will be mild and require no hospitalization or additional treatment. For those who are more severe, they will be treated with monoclonal antibodies and some of the emerging antivirals.Wayland said:statefan91 said:
Yes, the 80% number is inclusive of natural + vaccinated immunity
The problem becomes with waning immunity (which the Qatar study puts at 6 months) and depending on the infectiousness of those post-vax +6 months cases (which MAY be less contagious?)...
As the immunity wanes your 80% number decreases. Now if people are widely vaccinated or previously infected you will have less severe cases, but cases will always be there.
We will know a lot more in 3 months.
People who believe Covid will go away and no one will ever get sick again are living in a fantasy world. This is not how viruses work. Viruses become endemic and cases become more mild as immunity increases. To get immunity there are two ways - get vaccinated (this is the safer path to immunity) or through infection.
Focus on 'Endemicity with minimal severe impacts',
Allow for nuance in policy and vaccination. Recognize prior immunity from actual infection.
Be 'okay' that 1 dose vaccination is 'good enough' in some groups (prior infected or pediatric) and use that as a vehicle to drive greater uptake.
I think another thing that frustrates me is the metric of measurement of how many ICU beds are "occupied". To me, the news organizations have turned that metric into something that is easily misunderstood by the public.
ICU's aren't designed to be empty, there will always be occupancy in an ICU. I don't think the general public gets that. Hospitals take a loss when a patient isn't in a room.
ICU's aren't designed to be empty, there will always be occupancy in an ICU. I don't think the general public gets that. Hospitals take a loss when a patient isn't in a room.
Its admittedly not my area of expertise, but arent all ICU's usually in the 75-85% occupancy? I feel like that was the normal area for my customers when I was on site a while ago.hokiewolf said:
I think another thing that frustrates me is the metric of measurement of how many ICU beds are "occupied". To me, the news organizations have turned that metric into something that is easily misunderstood by the public.
ICU's aren't designed to be empty, there will always be occupancy in an ICU. I don't think the general public gets that. Hospitals take a loss when a patient isn't in a room.
Agree, and there is typically very little exposition on what it means when they report that hospitals are "full" with covid patients. It's a tremendous amount of work for those folks that work in the hospitals either way, and much respect to all those people (and I know a good number of them), but in the greater context as to whether things are getting better or worse, some added details for the general public couldn't hurt. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much room for that type of nuanced reporting.hokiewolf said:
I think another thing that frustrates me is the metric of measurement of how many ICU beds are "occupied". To me, the news organizations have turned that metric into something that is easily misunderstood by the public.
ICU's aren't designed to be empty, there will always be occupancy in an ICU. I don't think the general public gets that. Hospitals take a loss when a patient isn't in a room.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
To that end. And I am going to pick a little.wilmwolf80 said:Agree, and there is typically very little exposition on what it means when they report that hospitals are "full" with covid patients. It's a tremendous amount of work for those folks that work in the hospitals either way, and much respect to all those people (and I know a good number of them), but in the greater context as to whether things are getting better or worse, some added details for the general public couldn't hurt. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much room for that type of nuanced reporting.hokiewolf said:
I think another thing that frustrates me is the metric of measurement of how many ICU beds are "occupied". To me, the news organizations have turned that metric into something that is easily misunderstood by the public.
ICU's aren't designed to be empty, there will always be occupancy in an ICU. I don't think the general public gets that. Hospitals take a loss when a patient isn't in a room.
There is some haze to the numbers. I am all about the highest level of medical care, but look at NC hospital admissions compared to the case rates and %ED for COVID numbers.
Broader infections peaked weeks ago. You can look at the demographics and the later case bump was driven primarily 'back to school' age cases.
The %ED WITH Diagnosed COVID has been declining for weeks.
Hospitalizations and ICU are basically dead flat, but look at those 'New Admit' numbers.... ESPECIALLY on the first weekday or two in a week. A little bit of 'with COVID' mixed in early weeks combined with lowering admission standards (which there is no problem with since we want good outcomes).
I will say, I am a little uneasy about today's case reporting from NC DHHS. I expected a huge post holiday bump... maybe the reduction in back to school testing countered it out... but it feels low.
Especially with 447 of the cases reported today coming from 8/27. Odd backlog post.
Especially with 447 of the cases reported today coming from 8/27. Odd backlog post.
And since I am talking to myself today.... NOW Fauci acknowledges we need to talk about prior infection immunity.... AFTER LAST NIGHT?!?!?!?!?
I can't even any more.
I can't even any more.
Dr. Fauci on why Americans who’ve previously been infected should get vaccinated despite studies showing it’s unnecessary: “I don’t have a really firm answer for you on that” pic.twitter.com/Y1CH2Wh6nk
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) September 10, 2021
Reading you loud and clear, brother!
Panama, Brazil, Argentina already ahead of US. We are on the only developed nation this far behind. Must stress to our country way back to normalcy is vaccines; Denmark, Ireland, UK, EU all doing this. https://t.co/Nm7a18hNGy
— Monica Gandhi MD, MPH (@MonicaGandhi9) September 10, 2021
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I posted something about the importance of prior immunity on Twitter yesterday and as expected, someone highlighted the Kentucky study that says you are twice a likely to become infected if you have prior immunity than you are if vaccinated. My response - the much more broad and statistically relevant study out of Israel that says prior immunity is stronger than vaccination immunity. At this point, they stopped trying to argue. I already had my other study links lined up.Wayland said:
And since I am talking to myself today.... NOW Fauci acknowledges we need to talk about prior infection immunity.... AFTER LAST NIGHT?!?!?!?!?
I can't even any more.Dr. Fauci on why Americans who’ve previously been infected should get vaccinated despite studies showing it’s unnecessary: “I don’t have a really firm answer for you on that” pic.twitter.com/Y1CH2Wh6nk
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) September 10, 2021
Bottom line - there is immunity from prior infection. Can you get infected with prior immunity? Yes. Are your outcomes likely to be in line with the outcome for those who are vaccinated and become infected? Yes. It is important to recognize that our bodies do an amazing job at providing us immunity and the mechanism that causes immunity after infection is the same mechanism that provides immunity from vaccination. Antibodies are a first line of defense and as they begin to wane (and they will), the B-Cells and T-Cells will kick in to help protect us from severe illness and infection. Will some people still get severely ill? Yes. Will some people still die? Yes. This will happen with vaccine immunity (we are seeing this today) and it will happen with prior infection immunity.
Why doesn't the media focus on it prior infection immunity? I think it comes partly from the unwillingness of Fauci and others to talk about its importance. Everyone thinks the Winter Wave ended due to vaccines, but this is far from the case. The Winter Wave ended due to prior infection immunity and to a smaller part, vaccination. If you remember, vaccinations were just ramping up in January, but hospitalizations peaked in early January and declined from that point forward. Why? The virus ran out of easy victims to infect. The ones most easily infected had already been infected and had prior infection protection. This is the same thing that will lead to a decline in the Summer Wave. Delta will run out of victims to infect - due to vaccinations and prior infection immunity.
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