RunsWithWolves26 said:
Noticed on the CDC website that the running 7 day average increased yesterday for the first time since April 18th. Figured that would happen 7-10 days after memorial day. Hoping it is just a little blip on the radar and things go back to a decline.
One other question because I haven't paid much attention to it but, exactly what is this new delta variant I keep hearing about? Asking seriously and not asking for the couple of posters who will repsond with fake, false, socialist, lefties, made up, blah, blah, blah. Mainly asking Davie and PackPA.
The CDC data is considered a reporting blip, due to delays in data reporting following the holiday period. Unfortunately, some of the "experts" on Twitter used this data to try and raise alarm bells. After a year of this virus, you would think they would know better and understand the data. The graphs were based on "date of report" data for cases and deaths instead of the more meaningful and accurate "date of specimen" and "date of death" report.
As to the Delta variant, here is the information I have been following:
1. As some of you know, the method to report different variants has been updated to use Greek letters instead of the more archaic system used in the past. It is thought it would be easier for the general public to understand. Other previously known variants were renamed to follow this convention as well. Delta can also be classified by as B.1.617.2 and you will see it referred to in this way by some articles.
2. For variants, there are three types of classification that are import to understand:
- Variant of Interest (VOI) - Variant has specific genetic markers that are "predicted" to affect transmission or immunity escape, evidence that it causes an increase in the proportion of cases, and limited expansion or prevalence in the US.
- Variant of Concern (VOC) - Evidence of increased transmissibility, more severe disease, and significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination, and reduced effectiveness of treatments and vaccines.
- Variant of of High Consequence (VOHC) - A variant with clear evidence that prevention measures have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to other circulating variants. Currently, there are no SARS-CoV-2 variants that rise to this level in circulation in the US.
3. The Delta variant is currently classified as a VOI. It appeared in India in December of 2020 and it is believed to be one of several reasons for the severity of the outbreak in India. It has several mutations on the spike protein that enables it to spread more effectively.
4. As of the most recent data I have found, it is thought to make up 6% of all of the current cases reported in the US. Due to the genetic markers of the virus, it is expected to spread more easily than other variant forms. In the UK, Delta is now the dominant strain. Some of the reason it may have spread more rapidly in the UK is due to the UK's approach of spreading out vaccination first and second doses to 12 weeks from the standard 3 to 4 weeks. The UK has reported that transmissibility may be 40% higher for Delta over other viruses.
5. Delta may be associated with higher disease severity, but this is also in question. I had seen earlier reports that hospitalizations were 2.5 times higher for people infected with the Delta variant, over those infected by other variants. Also, it seems the vaccines may do less to protect you from becoming sick if you become infected.
6. Overall, the vaccines are considered effective, but not as effective as they are against other variants. There are still studies being conducted, but some studies have shown a two-fold reduction in neutralizing titers in people who are fully vaccinated. Remember my comment above about the UK and their decision to spread out the dosing schedule. Some believe this may have made Delta appear to be worse than it really is, since the population may have had lower levels of antibodies compared to countries that stayed on the prescribed dosing schedule. Bottom line, being fully vaccinated should help protect you from the Delta variant, but the protection may be less the protection against other variants.
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