Neither my Mom nor Grandmother ever had any effects from their first dose other than a sore arm. My buddy who just got his second shot said it absolutely kicked his ass for a day. Said he hasn't been that sick in ten years, but it was over the next day.
Coronavirus
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metcalfmafia said:
They seeing any side effects?
Not one serious side effect.
My 72 YO Dad said it made him really tired and he took three naps on Saturday after getting it Friday, but that's not that different than a normal Saturday for him.
He still works 50 or 60 hours a week so his weeks are full but the man naps like a damn champion on weekends.My sister-in-law that's in healthcare got her second shot last week and it put her on her ass for a day. That sounds like it's a much more common effect of the second shot than the first, though.
Thanks for asking!
This whole thing has turned me into being very careful about germs in general. Not sure I will ever stop with the hand sanitizer. I won't be wearing a mask majority of the time once this is over but I honestly don't have a problem with continuing to wear mask in crowded public places going forward. As one poster pointed out earlier, if this is what had driven flu numbers down then I'm all for continuing some of the practices.
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Thanks for the update and happy to hear they tolerated it well. My dad (he is 86 and has some health issues) said the same thing. Said his arm was sore for a couple of days, but no other symptoms. I do worry about how he handles the second dose, since I hear reports of it being much more symptomatic for many people.wilmwolf80 said:
Neither my Mom nor Grandmother ever had any effects from their first dose other than a sore arm. My buddy who just got his second shot said it absolutely kicked his ass for a day. Said he hasn't been that sick in ten years, but it was over the next day.
My 90 year old Mom had her second shot last week with no side effects at all. My daughter in law had hers last week and ran a fever with terrible chills for 24 hours. I'm getting my second next week. Fingers crossed.
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For today's vaccination update, I thought it would be helpful to show not only how the US and NC are doing, but how vaccinations are going in the Canada, the UK, and key EU countries.
For the US and NC, here are the current vaccination numbers:
US Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 73,394,260
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 59,082,379 <== 12.6% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 80.5%
NC Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 2,120,076
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 1,882,628 <== 12.2% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 88.8%
The US is currently averaging 1.6M doses administered per day (last 7-day average). As mentioned in earlier posts, the Winter storms being experienced across the nation, affecting about 1/3 of the population are having a negative effect on the ramping of vaccine administration. I do believe as the weather clears, the US will be able to catch-up and get back on track in the next week.
To get to 3M doses administered per day, the US will need to get the J&J vaccine approved and J&J will need to improve their manufacturing capacity to meet their commitments. Based on info I posted a couple of days ago, I expect it will be late March before J&J is able to produce 1M doses per day and this is what will be required for them to meet their commitment of 100M doses by the end of June. If this happens, the US should be in a position to begin hitting 3M doses per day (from a supply standpoint) in late March/early April.
As I mentioned, I did want to show how the US is doing compared to other key countries and as you can see form the chart below, the US is leading on total number of doses administered and is second only to the UK (I did not include Israel) in doses administered per 100 people. Additionally, you can see that the news is not good for Canada and for most of the EU. In fact, for these countries the vaccine rollout has been a disaster. I think from a US perspective, we should be very encouraged by the results we have achieved so far and I expect to see continual improvement.
Total Vaccination Doses Administered:
Vaccination Doses Administered per 100 people:
US Vaccinations Administered (Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker):
NC Vaccinations Administered (Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker):
For the US and NC, here are the current vaccination numbers:
US Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 73,394,260
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 59,082,379 <== 12.6% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 80.5%
NC Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 2,120,076
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 1,882,628 <== 12.2% of population have received 1st dose
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 88.8%
The US is currently averaging 1.6M doses administered per day (last 7-day average). As mentioned in earlier posts, the Winter storms being experienced across the nation, affecting about 1/3 of the population are having a negative effect on the ramping of vaccine administration. I do believe as the weather clears, the US will be able to catch-up and get back on track in the next week.
To get to 3M doses administered per day, the US will need to get the J&J vaccine approved and J&J will need to improve their manufacturing capacity to meet their commitments. Based on info I posted a couple of days ago, I expect it will be late March before J&J is able to produce 1M doses per day and this is what will be required for them to meet their commitment of 100M doses by the end of June. If this happens, the US should be in a position to begin hitting 3M doses per day (from a supply standpoint) in late March/early April.
As I mentioned, I did want to show how the US is doing compared to other key countries and as you can see form the chart below, the US is leading on total number of doses administered and is second only to the UK (I did not include Israel) in doses administered per 100 people. Additionally, you can see that the news is not good for Canada and for most of the EU. In fact, for these countries the vaccine rollout has been a disaster. I think from a US perspective, we should be very encouraged by the results we have achieved so far and I expect to see continual improvement.
Total Vaccination Doses Administered:
Vaccination Doses Administered per 100 people:
US Vaccinations Administered (Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker):
NC Vaccinations Administered (Bloomberg Vaccination Tracker):
One of my first cousins (once removed) is 30 and a firefighter and his 2nd dose hit him hard for for 1.5 days. He said that 1.5 days was worse than the flu but it left him quickly.wilmwolf80 said:
Neither my Mom nor Grandmother ever had any effects from their first dose other than a sore arm. My buddy who just got his second shot said it absolutely kicked his ass for a day. Said he hasn't been that sick in ten years, but it was over the next day.
I found out last week a former preacher friend of my dad had Covid-19 this past summer and had a tough time with it. He drove himself to the doctor and then the hospital and he had quit driving because of eyesight, 3-4 years ago. He was in the hospital for 3 weeks and suffered for 3 months and now his is fine and had both doses of vaccine. He said he lost some memory from the disease but other than that, he is fine. 2 of his 3 sons are NC State grads. He loves Atlanta Braves baseball and he watches it at home with the sound off.....just watches the games.
Vaccine Effectiveness against South African Variant
This is preliminary data, so still being studied. Pfizer vaccine had two-thirds less effectiveness neutralizing the B.1.351 (South African) Variant. Moderna vaccine also had reduced effectiveness, but was not statistically significant.
Researchers are not sure what this truly means in the grand scheme of things, but something to monitor going forward. "It is unclear what effect a reduction in neutralization by approximately two thirds would have on [vaccine]-elicited protection from [COVID]-19 caused by the B.1.351 lineage of SARS-CoV-2."
This is preliminary data, so still being studied. Pfizer vaccine had two-thirds less effectiveness neutralizing the B.1.351 (South African) Variant. Moderna vaccine also had reduced effectiveness, but was not statistically significant.
Researchers are not sure what this truly means in the grand scheme of things, but something to monitor going forward. "It is unclear what effect a reduction in neutralization by approximately two thirds would have on [vaccine]-elicited protection from [COVID]-19 caused by the B.1.351 lineage of SARS-CoV-2."
COVID-19 and Schools in Sweden
Sweden kept schools and pre-schools (1-16 years old children) open during the pandemic. COVID-19 did not have a large impact on those kids. 1 in 130,000 kids had severe COVID-19 defined as an ICU admission.
Of note, I did see my first student to teacher transmission 3 days ago. That is the only one I have seen so far, but interesting nonetheless. ETA: both patients are doing well so far without any complications.
Sweden kept schools and pre-schools (1-16 years old children) open during the pandemic. COVID-19 did not have a large impact on those kids. 1 in 130,000 kids had severe COVID-19 defined as an ICU admission.
Of note, I did see my first student to teacher transmission 3 days ago. That is the only one I have seen so far, but interesting nonetheless. ETA: both patients are doing well so far without any complications.
I've read that Pfizer and Moderna are also already working on booster shots that would supplement the vaccines to have broader protection against the variants.PackPA2015 said:
Vaccine Effectiveness against South African Variant
This is preliminary data, so still being studied. Pfizer vaccine had two-thirds less effectiveness neutralizing the B.1.351 (South African) Variant. Moderna vaccine also had reduced effectiveness, but was not statistically significant.
Researchers are not sure what this truly means in the grand scheme of things, but something to monitor going forward. "It is unclear what effect a reduction in neutralization by approximately two thirds would have on [vaccine]-elicited protection from [COVID]-19 caused by the B.1.351 lineage of SARS-CoV-2."
You are correct, sir. The worry would be, can we control it enough before we get those boosters ready? So far, so good on that front.statefan91 said:I've read that Pfizer and Moderna are also already working on booster shots that would supplement the vaccines to have broader protection against the variants.PackPA2015 said:
Vaccine Effectiveness against South African Variant
This is preliminary data, so still being studied. Pfizer vaccine had two-thirds less effectiveness neutralizing the B.1.351 (South African) Variant. Moderna vaccine also had reduced effectiveness, but was not statistically significant.
Researchers are not sure what this truly means in the grand scheme of things, but something to monitor going forward. "It is unclear what effect a reduction in neutralization by approximately two thirds would have on [vaccine]-elicited protection from [COVID]-19 caused by the B.1.351 lineage of SARS-CoV-2."
South Africa has began using the Johnson and Johnson vaccine exclusively as this has worked better in their studies on that specific variant. Yet another reason that J&J needs to ramp up their production quickly.
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I would point again to the interview I posted yesterday with Dr. Michael Mina, a Harvard epidemiologist. I will post the link here again for those who may have missed it. I highly recommend everyone read it. He has some very good insights and ideas.PackPA2015 said:You are correct, sir. The worry would be, can we control it enough before we get those boosters ready? So far, so good on that front.statefan91 said:I've read that Pfizer and Moderna are also already working on booster shots that would supplement the vaccines to have broader protection against the variants.PackPA2015 said:
Vaccine Effectiveness against South African Variant
This is preliminary data, so still being studied. Pfizer vaccine had two-thirds less effectiveness neutralizing the B.1.351 (South African) Variant. Moderna vaccine also had reduced effectiveness, but was not statistically significant.
Researchers are not sure what this truly means in the grand scheme of things, but something to monitor going forward. "It is unclear what effect a reduction in neutralization by approximately two thirds would have on [vaccine]-elicited protection from [COVID]-19 caused by the B.1.351 lineage of SARS-CoV-2."
South Africa has began using the Johnson and Johnson vaccine exclusively as this has worked better in their studies on that specific variant. Yet another reason that J&J needs to ramp up their production quickly.
How Long Can Covid Cases Keep Plummeting?
Some points he made on variants:
On Lack of a Broad-spectrum Vaccine:
"Another issue: All of the major vaccines that we are building all present the exact same spike protein. They're all clones of each other no difference for the most part. Nobody ever took a step back to say, what if this virus mutates? We are vaccinating with a narrow-spectrum vaccine against one piece of the virus. If that piece mutates, it would be able to escape all of our vaccines. And all it needs to do is mutate once, somewhere in the world. And then all of our major vaccines are moot. Why was that not considered?"
On Lack of Surveillance Testing:
"We'd much rather just wait and then blame South America and blame the U.K. Meanwhile, we're probably getting the identical variants here not just because they're being brought in by travelers, but because they are probably being built right here in the U.S. through mutation and viral evolution. But now we can blame it on South America or South Africa and the U.K. instead of blaming it on ourselves."
On Variants, How Scared Should We Be:
"This is one of the more recent things that I kind of have gotten in arguments with some other scientists about. I said, "If the variants are not as susceptible to immunity acquired by natural infection, then there's no reason to think that the vaccine would be any different than the natural infection-acquired immunity." And so many people say, "Well, we haven't seen the data for that, we need to actually see that vaccine-derived immunity is not performing as well for the variants before we can possibly say that, because it would be too scary to say it."
"But, like, use immunology and biology 101. We created the vaccines to look exactly like the natural virus. We don't need the data. We don't actually need it to be able to say, if there are natural strains that are coming about that are evading one version of this virus, then they would also evade the immunity derived by the vaccine. We don't need the empirical data to start talking about it, because you know, what if it means that policy-makers need to really shift gears and plan for a future in which maybe the vaccines don't work as well?"
Some Reports Say New Vaccines Will Not Be Available Until 2022 to Address New Variants. Shouldn't We Be Moving Faster to Develop New Vaccines for Variants?
"Yeah, exactly. I fully agree. We went truly from zero to a hundred with the current vaccine in less than a year. Why would it be a multiyear timeline to get a new version of the vaccine out? That doesn't make any sense. But our sense of urgency keeps swinging back and forth. People are kind of picking and choosing where they say things can and should be accelerated versus not."
Why Are People Picking and Choosing Where It Should Be Accelerated?
"I think people have a really hard time not falling back into old ways. In the case of vaccines, there's such a history of slowness, that when people are then placed in a position to comment on it, their brain just immediately reverts back to thinking that anything really robust and fast is impossible. People allow themselves to see barriers much more than they allow themselves to see solutions."
I agree and disagree with his variant comments. I do think we need to be discussing this in terms of vaccines or boosters and policy right now. However, I do not agree with his comments about not needing to see data and assume that natural immunity is the same as vaccine immunity. We often find in studies that what we assume for years has been wrong. This virus has changed how we look at infectious disease in so many ways. The way it infects and causes a variety of symptoms in different individuals so differently does not make sense. So no, I do not think we need to make assumptions on what immunity looks like either. Data is important and should drive our ultimate decisions, but we do need to discuss what happens if it changes the one protein that we have been trying to block this entire time and how we can prevent the next pandemic.
ETA: I am sure he is a lot smarter than I am and do not mind reading his comments, but I think assuming anything with this virus can cause a lot of issues going forward.
ETA: I am sure he is a lot smarter than I am and do not mind reading his comments, but I think assuming anything with this virus can cause a lot of issues going forward.
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Thanks for your comments and I look forward to reading your perspectives. Dr. Mina raises a lot of interesting points on a variety of topics in the article. Since last March, he has been very focused on the use of rapid testing to get society back open and for the most part, his fears have been realized (ie., a lack of wide-scale rapid testing capabilities). In the article, he calls out another epidemiologist (Dr. Mike Osterholm - an advisor to President Biden on Covid policy) for his reliance on a lock-down strategy instead of a strategy of extensive testing. He believes we have wasted valuable time in putting both rapid testing and wide-spread antibody surveillance. I definitely agree with him on this point.PackPA2015 said:
I agree and disagree with his variant comments. I do think we need to be discussing this in terms of vaccines or boosters and policy right now. However, I do not agree with his comments about not needing to see data and assume that natural immunity is the same as vaccine immunity. We often find in studies that what we assume for years has been wrong. This virus has changed how we look at infectious disease in so many ways. The way it infects and causes a variety of symptoms in different individuals so differently does not make sense. So no, I do not think we need to make assumptions on what immunity looks like either. Data is important and should drive our ultimate decisions, but we do need to discuss what happens if it changes the one protein that we have been trying to block this entire time and how we can prevent the next pandemic.
ETA: I am sure he is a lot smarter than I am and do not mind reading his comments, but I think assuming anything with this virus can cause a lot of issues going forward.
I also agree with him that the policy makers and administration need to state now what our endgame is for ending the lockdowns and masking policies. He argues it should be centered on reaching an "acceptable level" of hospitalizations and deaths and not based on having zero hospitalizations and zero deaths from the vaccines. Getting to zero, as he points out, will take a really long time. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people who seem to be arguing for zero and I just do not think that is realistic.
I'm not an expert but the virus acts so differently b/c it's not a natural occurring virus. It was manipulated and released in that lab. I wish we would put an end to China's viral experimentation. Instead we fund it.PackPA2015 said:
I agree and disagree with his variant comments. I do think we need to be discussing this in terms of vaccines or boosters and policy right now. However, I do not agree with his comments about not needing to see data and assume that natural immunity is the same as vaccine immunity. We often find in studies that what we assume for years has been wrong. This virus has changed how we look at infectious disease in so many ways. The way it infects and causes a variety of symptoms in different individuals so differently does not make sense. So no, I do not think we need to make assumptions on what immunity looks like either. Data is important and should drive our ultimate decisions, but we do need to discuss what happens if it changes the one protein that we have been trying to block this entire time and how we can prevent the next pandemic.
ETA: I am sure he is a lot smarter than I am and do not mind reading his comments, but I think assuming anything with this virus can cause a lot of issues going forward.
Agree with you wholeheartedly on setting the goal post firmly in the ground on what our goal is for opening up. I also agree that we will not lower this thing down to zero cases, hospitalizations, or death. I think if you can continue rate of positives under 5% consistently, have less than 1000 new cases per day, hospitalizations decreasing, etc. with continued improvement of vaccinations efforts, we can open things up. I would venture to say late spring/early summer on that goal.
ncsualum05: As of now, there is no evidence to suggest this was a man-made virus. The WHO (I know they received a bad rep) has investigated and said no evidence so far. Now, I will admit China only allows certain things to be viewed, investigated, reported, etc, but even in studies here in the states, there has been no evidence so far. I am sure there will be more studies to come on this.
ncsualum05: As of now, there is no evidence to suggest this was a man-made virus. The WHO (I know they received a bad rep) has investigated and said no evidence so far. Now, I will admit China only allows certain things to be viewed, investigated, reported, etc, but even in studies here in the states, there has been no evidence so far. I am sure there will be more studies to come on this.
PackPA2015 said:
I agree and disagree with his variant comments. I do think we need to be discussing this in terms of vaccines or boosters and policy right now. However, I do not agree with his comments about not needing to see data and assume that natural immunity is the same as vaccine immunity. We often find in studies that what we assume for years has been wrong. This virus has changed how we look at infectious disease in so many ways. The way it infects and causes a variety of symptoms in different individuals so differently does not make sense. So no, I do not think we need to make assumptions on what immunity looks like either. Data is important and should drive our ultimate decisions, but we do need to discuss what happens if it changes the one protein that we have been trying to block this entire time and how we can prevent the next pandemic.
ETA: I am sure he is a lot smarter than I am and do not mind reading his comments, but I think assuming anything with this virus can cause a lot of issues going forward.
I respectfully disagree. Data is extremely important, and should guide policy and decision making. But so should common sense, or at least calculated caution. And data takes precious time and, unfortunately in this particular instance, failures (failed immunity as evidenced by infection) to gather. Lack of infection presumes immunity, and that's fine... But not as specific as infection presumes failure.
So i think his point should be heeded. For now, presume because primary infection is not creating immunity to the variant that the derived vaccines are also unlikely to provide the level of immunity we seek. That makes us proceed with caution and prepare for the worst until the data is better known, and maybe start creating something NOW to potentially combat variants. Broader coverage, if you will.
This is sort of how this pandemic was managed (prepare for the worst, but hopefully medical science and social consciousness will flatten the curve as we learn) from the beginning. Many presumptions were wrong, predictions went ary, but lives were arguably saved with a steep price. I'd rather assume the data will fit, prepare for the variants, broaden the coverage, and then sigh in relief if the measures are never needed because the data finally suggests the original vaccines were enough.
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As I mentioned earlier, the Winter storms definitely impacted the distribution of vaccines and the administration of vaccine doses this past week. It was reported today that roughly have of the available doses (6M doses) were not distributed this week. The federal government believes they should be able to get these doses distributed over the next several days.
Additionally, the J&J vaccine is targeted for final approval next Friday and if it is approved, you can expect distribution to begin the first week of March. As I have mentioned in previous posts, expect the number of vaccines distributed the first couple of weeks to total around 7M or slightly less. J&J is expected to ramp production and it is hoped by mid to late March they will be able to produce up to 1M doses per day.
Additionally, the J&J vaccine is targeted for final approval next Friday and if it is approved, you can expect distribution to begin the first week of March. As I have mentioned in previous posts, expect the number of vaccines distributed the first couple of weeks to total around 7M or slightly less. J&J is expected to ramp production and it is hoped by mid to late March they will be able to produce up to 1M doses per day.
Pfizer Vaccine Storage
Pfizer CEO states their vaccine is 85% effective after the 1st dose and can now be stored in a normal freezer. They have submitted this information to the FDA. Would be huge for increased access.
Pfizer CEO states their vaccine is 85% effective after the 1st dose and can now be stored in a normal freezer. They have submitted this information to the FDA. Would be huge for increased access.
I'm not going to go through and try to find old links for you but I saw some stories last year that say otherwise. I believe Tucker Carlson reported on some of it and even had a couple chinese scientists that had escaped China interview. But it was in a few other outlets too. Key points though that I can recall...PackPA2015 said:
Agree with you wholeheartedly on setting the goal post firmly in the ground on what our goal is for opening up. I also agree that we will not lower this thing down to zero cases, hospitalizations, or death. I think if you can continue rate of positives under 5% consistently, have less than 1000 new cases per day, hospitalizations decreasing, etc. with continued improvement of vaccinations efforts, we can open things up. I would venture to say late spring/early summer on that goal.
ncsualum05: As of now, there is no evidence to suggest this was a man-made virus. The WHO (I know they received a bad rep) has investigated and said no evidence so far. Now, I will admit China only allows certain things to be viewed, investigated, reported, etc, but even in studies here in the states, there has been no evidence so far. I am sure there will be more studies to come on this.
1. Wuhan virology lab is only level 4 lab in China. US funded this lab and actually sent inspectors over in 2018. The report in 2018 was that inspectors noted the lab did not follow the safety precautions required in a level 4 viral research facility. No one ever did anything about it.
2. In this lab they performed gain of function research. They took coronaviruses in bats and other animals and manipulated them to see if they could mutate them into more contagious strains that could jump to humans. This is actually performed in the US as well and is not uncommon for top level viral labs.
3. I saw it reported that because of China being China and not following good regulation that the virus got out in a lab tech. He or she unknowingly took it out into Wuhan. China being China of course once things started breaking and getting out of control covered everything up, burned evidence, and lied to the world.
Now I remember seeing some of this reporting back last year. My guess is you can't google it or find it b/c we know our social media and internet companies delete things they don't like. And our elite class in this country is helping China suppress info. So I'm sure you can say there's no hard evidence.... b/c only 5% of the media even cared to look into it and whatever they found has probably been deleted.
The question we need to ask is why we don't press harder for origin investigation, and why would we believe China and our mainstream media which lies all the time.
My takeaway from this chart is that we're actually doing a pretty darn good job of getting shots in arms.
"The NCAA's business model would be flatly illegal in almost every other industry in America...The NCAA is not above the law."
Murphy vs. NCAA, 594 U.S. ____ (2021)
Murphy vs. NCAA, 594 U.S. ____ (2021)
That's what I was saying, the WHO did just perform another investigation and are continuing to investigate for years to come. However, as of now, all of the evidence that we have says it was not man-made. The second link is the interview with the leader of the WHO team investigating in Wuhan and he talks about why we believe it is not man-made. Third article is a very lengthy discussion and again points out the evidence we have so far.
We have so many capabilities of breaking down the genome of a virus nowadays. It would be very, very difficult to create a new virus that would look almost identical to a naturally occurring virus, such as other coronaviruses.
UN Story on COVID Origination
Leader of WHO Team Investigating in Wuhan
Discussion on the Origination of COVID-19 - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
We have so many capabilities of breaking down the genome of a virus nowadays. It would be very, very difficult to create a new virus that would look almost identical to a naturally occurring virus, such as other coronaviruses.
UN Story on COVID Origination
Leader of WHO Team Investigating in Wuhan
Discussion on the Origination of COVID-19 - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
I don't think the virus was man made. If you were going to make and release a virus for whatever assumed nefarious reason, I'm not sure what is gained by making one that most people don't experience serious effects from. I'm not willing to rule out that it's spread is the result of negligence, willful or otherwise, on the part of the Chinese scientists. Though I doubt we will ever know for sure, and I don't really trust them to be truthful even if it were their negligence.
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I agree - I also do not believe it was man made. My personal opinion is they were studying various viruses in the Wuhan lab and there was an accident that lead to it unknowingly infecting someone - causing it to escape the lab. As far as China is concerned, people can give up on ever having the Chinese government comply with any investigation that will get to the truth. This is not how they work.wilmwolf80 said:
I don't think the virus was man made. If you were going to make and release a virus for whatever assumed nefarious reason, I'm not sure what is gained by making one that most people don't experience serious effects from. I'm not willing to rule out that it's spread is the result of negligence, willful or otherwise, on the part of the Chinese scientists. Though I doubt we will ever know for sure, and I don't really trust them to be truthful even if it were their negligence.
For example, did you know they are actually having some serious Covid outbreaks right now in several areas of China? So much so, travel during the Chinese Lunar holiday last week and this week was restricted for many employees. You will not see this in the press, since information is tightly controlled by the government, but it does not keep people from talking on daily phone calls.
Daviewolf83 said:I agree - I also do not believe it was man made. My personal opinion is they were studying various viruses in the Wuhan lab and there was an accident that lead to it unknowingly infecting someone - causing it to escape the lab. As far as China is concerned, people can give up on ever having the Chinese government comply with any investigation that will get to the truth. This is not how they work.wilmwolf80 said:
I don't think the virus was man made. If you were going to make and release a virus for whatever assumed nefarious reason, I'm not sure what is gained by making one that most people don't experience serious effects from. I'm not willing to rule out that it's spread is the result of negligence, willful or otherwise, on the part of the Chinese scientists. Though I doubt we will ever know for sure, and I don't really trust them to be truthful even if it were their negligence.
For example, did you know they are actually having some serious Covid outbreaks right now in several areas of China? So much so, travel during the Chinese Lunar holiday last week and this week was restricted for many employees. You will not see this in the press, since information is tightly controlled by the government, but it does not keep people from talking on daily phone calls.
So it was a novel coronavirus that they found in animals and they were studying that but it hadn't made the jump to humans yet until it made a jump to a researcher?
Seems possible, no idea how plausible.
Why do people think it came from a lab anyway? Animal to human transmission of respiratory illness happens frequently. Has a virus ever escaped a lab and started a serious outbreak?
Because there was a virology lab in the city it originated from. Is there any doubt where it would be said the virus originated from if there was a lab in a town it originated from in the US under the previous administration?
packgrad said:
Because there was a virology lab in the city it originated from. Is there any doubt where it would be said the virus originated from if there was a lab in a town it originated from in the US under the previous administration?
China has intense interest in coronaviruses because the bat population there is an extremely prolific generator of them. In the last 10 years scientists have found hundreds of new coronaviruses in their bat colonies.
Again I'm not arguing it didn't escape from a lab, just that it wouldn't have needed to. Coronaviruses in the wild are very common in China, which is why their Wuhan lab studies them.
It's not some big smoking gun that there's a virology lab in Wuhan when the whole reason that lab focuses on coronaviruses is that so many have been found in China's wildlife. It may have escaped from the lab. Or, it was one of the hundreds of coronaviruses that their bat populations carry in the wild.
No one has produced any evidence the lab was responsible and the international scientific community has no reason to run interference for China.
But China does.
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Here is one recent article on the lab escape theory.Civilized said:Daviewolf83 said:I agree - I also do not believe it was man made. My personal opinion is they were studying various viruses in the Wuhan lab and there was an accident that lead to it unknowingly infecting someone - causing it to escape the lab. As far as China is concerned, people can give up on ever having the Chinese government comply with any investigation that will get to the truth. This is not how they work.wilmwolf80 said:
I don't think the virus was man made. If you were going to make and release a virus for whatever assumed nefarious reason, I'm not sure what is gained by making one that most people don't experience serious effects from. I'm not willing to rule out that it's spread is the result of negligence, willful or otherwise, on the part of the Chinese scientists. Though I doubt we will ever know for sure, and I don't really trust them to be truthful even if it were their negligence.
For example, did you know they are actually having some serious Covid outbreaks right now in several areas of China? So much so, travel during the Chinese Lunar holiday last week and this week was restricted for many employees. You will not see this in the press, since information is tightly controlled by the government, but it does not keep people from talking on daily phone calls.
So it was a novel coronavirus that they found in animals and they were studying that but it hadn't made the jump to humans yet until it made a jump to a researcher?
Seems possible, no idea how plausible.
Why do people think it came from a lab anyway? Animal to human transmission of respiratory illness happens frequently. Has a virus ever escaped a lab and started a serious outbreak?
Coronavirus Lab Escape Theory
Here is a paper from 2014, presenting an historical review of outbreaks of Potentially Pandemic Pathogens or related pathogens that occurred from nationally supported laboratories.
Laboratory Escapes and "Self-fulfilling Prophecy" Epidemics
Another article from March of 2019 on virus escapes from labs:
Pathogens sometimes escape from the lab
Another theory is it came from animal to human transmission in a wet market. It is also possible as a theory, but I am not sure how probable it is. I've been to China and I have seen wet markets first hand, so it is possible this could be the cause. It is also possible a laboratory escape occurred and the Chinese government has a lot of reason to cover it up. We know they definitely lied about the virus' severity in the early days. Months ago, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx talked about how much the Chinese cover-up impacted our ability to react to the virus in the early days of the outbreak.
packgrad said:
But China does.
Agreed on that point. I don't think any of us take their word for it for sure.
Really interesting reading. Thanks for sharingDaviewolf83 said:Here is one recent article on the lab escape theory.Civilized said:Daviewolf83 said:I agree - I also do not believe it was man made. My personal opinion is they were studying various viruses in the Wuhan lab and there was an accident that lead to it unknowingly infecting someone - causing it to escape the lab. As far as China is concerned, people can give up on ever having the Chinese government comply with any investigation that will get to the truth. This is not how they work.wilmwolf80 said:
I don't think the virus was man made. If you were going to make and release a virus for whatever assumed nefarious reason, I'm not sure what is gained by making one that most people don't experience serious effects from. I'm not willing to rule out that it's spread is the result of negligence, willful or otherwise, on the part of the Chinese scientists. Though I doubt we will ever know for sure, and I don't really trust them to be truthful even if it were their negligence.
For example, did you know they are actually having some serious Covid outbreaks right now in several areas of China? So much so, travel during the Chinese Lunar holiday last week and this week was restricted for many employees. You will not see this in the press, since information is tightly controlled by the government, but it does not keep people from talking on daily phone calls.
So it was a novel coronavirus that they found in animals and they were studying that but it hadn't made the jump to humans yet until it made a jump to a researcher?
Seems possible, no idea how plausible.
Why do people think it came from a lab anyway? Animal to human transmission of respiratory illness happens frequently. Has a virus ever escaped a lab and started a serious outbreak?
Coronavirus Lab Escape Theory
Here is a paper from 2014, presenting an historical review of outbreaks of Potentially Pandemic Pathogens or related pathogens that occurred from nationally supported laboratories.
Laboratory Escapes and "Self-fulfilling Prophecy" Epidemics
Another article from March of 2019 on virus escapes from labs:
Pathogens sometimes escape from the lab
Another theory is it came from animal to human transmission in a wet market. It is also possible as a theory, but I am not sure how probable it is. I've been to China and I have seen wet markets first hand, so it is possible this could be the cause. It is also possible a laboratory escape occurred and the Chinese government has a lot of reason to cover it up. We know they definitely lied about the virus' severity in the early days. Months ago, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx talked about how much the Chinese cover-up impacted our ability to react to the virus in the early days of the outbreak.
Now we even have liberals here defending China in regards to the coronavirus just so that they can march to that party beat... kind of like when the previous president's first move after corona hit the US mainland was to block travel to the US from China and the Democrats screamed bloody murder... now they want to block travel to other states from Florida - all while releasing illegals into the US.
But I guess that shouldn't surprise me as they will never be the party of "common sense", let alone "science"...
But I guess that shouldn't surprise me as they will never be the party of "common sense", let alone "science"...
I don't really see anyone defending China in any of these posts.
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