Coronavirus

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wilmwolf
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I personally wouldn't fly right now. I've found it weird that so many places like California have had such harsh restrictions on everything else, but continue to allow people to pack on to planes.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
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desope24
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One odd little side effect of COVID-19 that I discovered last week. Because air travel is way down, there's a glut of jet fuel available. To make use of it, suppliers apparently mix it with fuel oil. You would think that the heating value of jet fuel (energy per gallon) would be higher than diesel fuel oil, but apparently it's the other way around. So, for some specific diesel fuel oil applications that demand a certain minimum heating value, it's become harder to get a reliable supply of fuel oil (No.2 fuel oil anyway).
Mormad
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https://www.wired.com/story/the-ethics-of-vaccinating-teachers-and-keeping-schools-closed/

Another great piece
packgrad
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Teachers should move to the back of the line in districts where unions are refusing to work.
Daviewolf83
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Staff
dogplasma said:

One odd little side effect of COVID-19 that I discovered last week. Because air travel is way down, there's a glut of jet fuel available. To make use of it, suppliers apparently mix it with fuel oil. You would think that the heating value of jet fuel (energy per gallon) would be higher than diesel fuel oil, but apparently it's the other way around. So, for some specific diesel fuel oil applications that demand a certain minimum heating value, it's become harder to get a reliable supply of fuel oil (No.2 fuel oil anyway).
Jet fuel is effectively kerosene, so it makes sense.
Daviewolf83
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I may be in the minority, but I would be okay flying now. However, I would only fly on an airline that is reserving the center seat. I will also gladly fly after getting the vaccine with no issue on how crowded the plane may be.

I have two friends (husband/wife) that flew during Christmas break and they were fine. They both got Covid a couple of weeks after flying. The wife is a high school basketball coach and she got it from one of her players. Most of her team go it as well from the player. She ended up giving it to her husband. She only had mild symptoms (headache for two days and loss of smell/taste - no other symptoms). Her husband had what he described as the sniffles for four days. Neither of them ran a fever. Both are in their mid-50s and are in relatively normal health (both are former college athletes - husband coaches high school baseball).
Wayland
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Daviewolf83 said:

I may be in the minority, but I would be okay flying now. However, I would only fly on an airline that is reserving the center seat. I will also gladly fly after getting the vaccine with no issue on how crowded the plane may be.

I have two friends (husband/wife) that flew during Christmas break and they were fine. They both got Covid a couple of weeks after flying. The wife is a high school basketball coach and she got it from one of her players. Most of her team go it as well from the player. She ended up giving it to her husband. She only had mild symptoms (headache for two days and loss of smell/taste - no other symptoms). Her husband had what he described as the sniffles for four days. Neither of them ran a fever. Both are in their mid-50s and are in relatively normal health (both are former college athletes - husband coaches high school baseball).

Obviously, I flew back in October (I guess during the seasonal dip). It was what it was, a little odd. Other than being mindful when we got back, it was a means to an end.

Just like anything else. Know your risk. Be mindful of how you are feeling. Take appropriate precautions.

My nephew flies a couple times a month for hockey tournaments or to check in back home (and is currently living with my parents). I think almost his entire team has tested positive at one point, he never has. I think it is likely that either he did already have it or had some sort of pre-existing immunity. I believe he is tested almost weekly. Do I have some concerns with my parents living with a teenage who frequently travels? Sure, but they understand the risks and are loving having their grandson in their home and getting to get one more chance at doting on a teenager.

My parents went to Hawaii for Christmas (Hawaii requires testing before going) with my sister's family. My parents (late 70s) still work part time in a 'family owned' business to help out and keep busy. They are well informed of the risks and these are the choices they have made. Other than that, they don't do much other than see friends outside. Those are their choices.

This Christmas we visited with my wife's grandmother, who is well into her 90s, and almost didn't survive a fall two years ago (lives alone and was on the ground for well over a day before was found. Was hospitalized then caught a virus in rehab and hospitalized again). Other than my father-in-law, she was the only one we visited for Christmas and we had to think LONG and hard about it. It was the best visit I have ever had with her (she is still very sharp mentally). There was a year in the recent past (but well before COVID) where I opted out of visiting because I wasn't feeling well, as I would have this time. No one is guaranteed another day, especially not at her age.

In every case, we evaluate risk. By no means do we make (in my mind at least) reckless choices. Hell, outside of our trip (where we did eat in a restaurant 4 or 5 times), I haven't been to eat to a bar or restaurant in almost a year (the theater of it is not worth the effort).

But I am not going to judge whatever level of risk people are comfortable with. There is a serious virus out there and people should act at the level they are comfortable with.
WPNfamily
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My dad got his first shot today in Charlotte. He is 73. He had the rona a month ago and his pcp still had him get vax'd because of the new strains out there. He feels great and is excited about getting the first round. He got the
Pfizer vac.
Cthepack
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Daviewolf83 said:

I may be in the minority, but I would be okay flying now. However, I would only fly on an airline that is reserving the center seat. I will also gladly fly after getting the vaccine with no issue on how crowded the plane may be.

I have two friends (husband/wife) that flew during Christmas break and they were fine. They both got Covid a couple of weeks after flying. The wife is a high school basketball coach and she got it from one of her players. Most of her team go it as well from the player. She ended up giving it to her husband. She only had mild symptoms (headache for two days and loss of smell/taste - no other symptoms). Her husband had what he described as the sniffles for four days. Neither of them ran a fever. Both are in their mid-50s and are in relatively normal health (both are former college athletes - husband coaches high school baseball).


I fly all the time and have most weeks since August 2020. Noticed flights getting fuller as airlines have condensed the number of flights. People are wearing masks and they attempt to maximize social distancing by exiting the aircraft by rows. So I agree with you no issue for me flying.
PossumJenkins
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I've been flying weekly since May/June of last year. Have never felt unsafe. Honestly the airports worry me more than the actual planes.
statefan91
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statefan91
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NC passes 1MM doses delivered. My parents and father in law went to the Atrium / Bank of America vaccination event this past weekend. I think it was estimated that about 19k got their first doses and scheduled for #2.

packgrad
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I got my first one this past weekend. Sore arm, but no other issues.
statefan91
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packgrad said:

I got my first one this past weekend. Sore arm, but no other issues.
Great to hear
Daviewolf83
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Updated vaccination news for the US and NC and it continues to be good news for both (Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker):

US Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 49,916,170
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 32,844,840
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 65.8%

NC Vaccinations:
Total Vaccination Doses Available: 1,422,665
Total Vaccination Dose Administered: 1,061,308
Percentage of Available Doses Administered: 74.6% <== currently rank 11th in US for available doses administered

For NC, 8.5% of the population has received one dose and 1.6% of the population are fully vaccinated. NC should be updating their vaccination data tomorrow and we will get a better view of the progress being made with respect to the LTC facilities in the update.

Based on the latest vaccinations numbers, the graphs below show how the US is doing versus the 100M and 150M doses in 100 goal and how NC is doing with the 3.2M and 4.8M goals to enable the US goals.

US Vaccination Progress:




NC Vaccination Progress:

statefan91
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8.5% of the population seems really good. Great news.
wilmwolf
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I can't believe that there are now serious discussions about people needing to wear two masks. Of course, multiple layers protects better than one, which I've said all along that there is no way most of the masks being worn are as effective as products designed specifically for that purpose. But getting to the point where Fauci and the CDC are commenting on possibly recommending people double mask makes me feel like I'm living in the twilight zone. I bet if you put on four or five masks you really can stop the transmission of Covid. You'll probably die from asphyxiation, but not the Rona!
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
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packgrad
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I'm pretty sure the two mask recommendation is just a drunk bet Faucci is trying to win with his fellow epidemiologists. "No way you can convince them to do this..."
Daviewolf83
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wilmwolf80 said:

I can't believe that there are now serious discussions about people needing to wear two masks. Of course, multiple layers protects better than one, which I've said all along that there is no way most of the masks being worn are as effective as products designed specifically for that purpose. But getting to the point where Fauci and the CDC are commenting on possibly recommended people double mask makes be feel like I'm living in the twilight zone. I bet if you put on four or five masks you really can stop the transmission of Covid. You'll probably die from asphyxiation, but not the Rona!
On NBC's "Meet the Press" this weekend, Dr. Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota was asked about Dr. Fauci's double masking advice. Dr. Osterholm is an advisor to President Biden on Covid-19 policy. In the interview, he expressed concern about Dr. Fauci's advice because people may not be wearing the masks correctly. He said double masking could further restrict airflow and force air through the open areas around the mask - potentially increasing the risk of infection. So, in these cases, double masking would actually have a negative effect.

I wear a thick mask and plan to continue wearing just one mask. I told my wife the other night that the double mask advice would be used to virtue shame those people only wearing one mask.
FlossyDFlynt
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Ive been wearing a mask since it was mandated by the state. I dont mind it at this point, just the cost of going in public until this thing goes away.

That being said, there is no way in hell Im wearing more than one. Get out of here with that mess
statefan91
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FlossyDFlynt said:

Ive been wearing a mask since it was mandated by the state. I dont mind it at this point, just the cost of going in public until this thing goes away.

That being said, there is no way in hell Im wearing more than one. Get out of here with that mess
Yep. Since recovery I've been back in the gym and have no problem wearing a mask the whole time. But two of them seems a stretch.
statefan91
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RunsWithWolves26
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Well that seems like good news. Talking to my brother, he flat out told me it is amazing the difference they are seeing now in hospital numbers since the vaccine has started.
statefan91
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Well that seems like good news. Talking to my brother, he flat out told me it is amazing the difference they are seeing now in hospital numbers since the vaccine has started.
Awesome news, I saw that the hospitalizations have gone down for 8-9 days straight. Hopefully it just continues to decline.
PackPA2015
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Well that seems like good news. Talking to my brother, he flat out told me it is amazing the difference they are seeing now in hospital numbers since the vaccine has started.
Absolutely. Numbers have plummeted here locally as well. Hospitalizations improving, positives per day decreasing. Deaths are beginning to plateau for us, so should be decreasing soon.

As long as the new variants do not reek havoc, which we do not believe will happen, we should be continuing to work towards 'normal'.
Civilized
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Well that seems like good news. Talking to my brother, he flat out told me it is amazing the difference they are seeing now in hospital numbers since the vaccine has started.

Vaccine rollout + distance from holiday gatherings = winning
ciscopack
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I'd think Dr. F was talking about doubling poor quality masks that fit well? More N-95's are finally coming to the market after 1 year and they should be good on their own.
.................

The goal of the "100 Days Masking Challenge" is to curb the rapid spread of the coronavirus, which has already claimed the lives of more than 400,000 Americans. Indeed, a study published on January 19 in the Lancet Digital Health journal Studies found that increasing mask-wearing across the U.S. by just 10% would significantly curb the transmission of the coronavirus.

Mask-wearing is even more effective when the face coverings fit properly and efficiently filter aerosol particles, according to medical experts.

"In addition to filtration, fit is the most important factor," said Devabhaktuni Srikrishna, founder of global-health platform Patient Knowhow, which curates educational health content for the general public.

"Even if you're wearing a high-quality mask, if it doesn't contact your face, it's going to leak all around. The best masks have a very solid, tight seal so that air doesn't leak. Effectively, a low fit equals low filtration," Srikrishna said.

Where to find an N95 or high-filtration mask for Biden's 100-day challenge

RunsWithWolves26
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My brother works in the Raleigh area. What area are you in? He literally called me the end of December telling me they had people sleeping in the ER because they didn't have beds. He called the other day and was just amazed out how much better things are. His words "The hell with the amount of positive test. They mean nothing. What matters is what the hospitals are dealing with and they are doing 1000% better now then a month ago."
Civilized
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

My brother works in the Raleigh area. What area are you in? He literally called me the end of December telling me they had people sleeping in the ER because they didn't have beds. He called the other day and was just amazed out how much better things are. His words "The hell with the amount of positive test. They mean nothing. What matters is what the hospitals are dealing with and they are doing 1000% better now then a month ago."

So great to hear!
Daviewolf83
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Well that seems like good news. Talking to my brother, he flat out told me it is amazing the difference they are seeing now in hospital numbers since the vaccine has started.
Part of decline is due to the vaccine, but it is also likely due to the seasonality effect. This is the same timing we see every year as flu infections decline. Considering the fact that most of the hospitalizations (~70%) have been people 60+ years of age, the vaccine may be having some impact.

As far as LTC facilities, it appears we have more work to be done to reduce the infections in these facilities. Based on NC's update yesterday, a total of 94,315 people have received their first dose and 12,635 have been fully immunized in LTC facilities. So far, NC has administered 32% of the available vaccine doses that are allocated to the LTC facilities.

NC Historical Influenza Infection Reporting:

PackPA2015
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I work in the Rutherford/Cleveland/Polk counties area just above SC.

Yeah, the hospital numbers were getting scary in our area as well right after Christmas and New Years.
Daviewolf83
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The graph below shows the daily hospitalized in NC and an estimate of the percentage of active Covid-19 cases that are hospitalized in NC. On top of this I superimposed the yearly influenza infection curves for the last three years. As I have pointed out previously, the growth in hospitalizations began in late October (approximately the same timing as the start of flu infections increasing) and as we all know, the numbers began declining in the past couple of weeks. The average percentage of Covid-19 patients hospitalized is 3.5% for the past 14 days. This is down from 3.7% for the 14 day span prior to this most recent period.


Mormad
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653v1

Those with previous covid only need single dose of mRNA vax, and may still get up to 10x the antibody response compared to those fully vaxed but no previous infection.
Mormad
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/01/how-soon-can-we-achieve-immunity-through-vaccinations-this-calculator-can-help-answer-question/

Cool calculator in the wash post to maybe help predict herd immunity using differing assumptions. Might be fun to play with and discuss.
Civilized
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Interesting. Hospitalizations clearly took a sharp upward turn several weeks before Thanksgiving and they're a trailing indicator since it takes people several weeks to get sick enough to be hospitalized typically. So the dramatic rise in infections began a month or more prior to Thanksgiving.

Makes it look more like the fall and winter surge was mostly cold weather related rather than holiday related.

That bodes really well for the sudden and dramatic downturn we've seen over the last few weeks. Still cold, and people are still inside, but far fewer are getting seriously ill than a few weeks ago.
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