PackMom said:

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It does make me wonder how the question was worded. Did it specifically ask if they wore the mask so that it always covered their mouth and nose when they were in public? I've seen plenty of people, including in the hospital, who had on a mask but mouth and/or nose were not covered.

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This is a very good point. Based on what I have read in the study details, how the mask was worn was not asked. As I mentioned in an earlier post, there are refining questions that needed to be asked to really zero in on the answers people gave about wearing a mask. The study points out a related limitation where they did not ask about other activities where a person may have become infected and they did not wear a mask.

The study is interesting, but I continue to caution everyone to be careful in trying to draw definite conclusions about the effectiveness of wearing a mask.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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I am sorry to have missed providing yesterday's update, but here are the updated numbers from todays NCDHHS updated:

10/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
232,747 (225,959 PCR + 6,788 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,738 (PCR) + 35 (Anitgen) = 3,773 (+3 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,109<- 96% reporting (was 1,046 at 95%)
Completed Tests
3,411,026
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1,970 Deaths are now Congregate (+0 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (0% of deaths were Congregate today)

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1,232 positive cases over 29,520 new tests (DHHS reports 27,662). 4.2% positive rate. (DHHS reports 6.0%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/10, 10/9(2) <== PCR Deaths
No Antigen tested Deaths Today

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10/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
234,481 (227,496 PCR + 6,985 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3,774 (PCR) + 42 (Anitgen) = 3,816 (+43 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1,103<- 96% reporting (was 1,109 at 96%)
Completed Tests
3,437,598
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1,996 Deaths are now Congregate (+26 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (60% of deaths were Congregate today)

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1,537 positive cases over 26,572 new tests (DHHS reports 20,630). 5.8% positive rate. (DHHS reports 7.1%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/12(3), 10/11(6), 10/10(8), 10/9(5), 10/8(5), 10/6(2), 10/5, 10/1, 9/30, 9/28, 9/23 <== PCR Deaths
10/10(3), 10/6, 10/5, 9/28, 9/10 <== Antigen tested Deaths

Of today's deaths, it is worth pointing out that 60% of the reported deaths were from Congregate facilities. Also, there was a large increase in Antigen tested deaths reported today, with an increase of 7 deaths (35 went to 42 deaths).

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10/14/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
236407 (229115 PCR + 7292 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3813 (PCR) + 43 (Anitgen) = 3856 (+40 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1152<- 97% reporting (was 1103 at 96%)
Completed Tests
3,459,943
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2,011 Deaths are now Congregate (+15 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (38% of deaths were Congregate today)

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1,619 positive cases over 22,345 new tests (DHHS reports 20,689). 7.2% positive rate. (DHHS reports 6.6%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/13(2), 10/12(7), 10/11(8), 10/10, 10/9(2), 10/8(3), 10/7(2), 10/4, 10/2, 9/20, 9/2, 8/31, 8/30, 8/17 <== PCR Deaths
One death was removed from 7/9

10/10 <== Antigen tested Deaths

The date of death is missing today for 8 deaths.

I would suggest people focus more on hospitalizations and deaths, instead of cases. Cases are in some ways, directly related the amount of testing NC is currently conducting. The trend for testing is increasing, while at the same time, the percent positives are trending down slightly. The hospitalizations are more concerning at this point. It does appear that the severity of those being hospitalized is down slightly, if you look at the percentage in ICU. As a percentage, there are 28% of all patients in ICU and this is down a couple of percentage points from the averages over the past several weeks (average closer to 30%).

As far as deaths are concerned, it appears a lot of data mining took place today, with deaths reporting extending as far back as August (8/17).

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10/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
238939 (231362 PCR + 7577 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3831 (PCR) + 43 (Anitgen) = 3874 (+18 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1140 <- 96% reporting (was 1152 at 97%)
Completed Tests
3,493,186
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2,019 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (44% of deaths were Congregate today)

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2,247 positive cases over 33,243 new tests (DHHS reports 32,479). 6.8% positive rate. (DHHS reports 6.5%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/12:
10/14(2), 10/13(2), 10/11, 10/10(2), 10/9(2), 10/8(2), 10/7, 10/5(2), 10/4, 10/3, 9/28(2), 9/25, 9/20, 8/5, 7/9 <== PCR Deaths

No new Antigen tested deaths were reported today

Just a heads up. I will likely not be updating the numbers tomorrow and if I do, it will be late tomorrow night. I am heading to the mountains to do some landscape photography before all the leaves fall off the trees. Saturday's update will also be late, since I will be traveling and attending my son's football game on Saturday afternoon.

Wayland said:

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So I am not really here (back Mon or Tues), but interesting that 1% of all ED visits last week were for ILI but there were zero positive flu tests in the state. Been some discussion nationally this week about flu suppression due to C19, follows the complete lack of a flu season in the Southern hemisphere. Will be interesting to watch if C19 is dominating flu. Flu dropped to zero in spring like a rock when C19 appeared.

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I believe masks, social distancing, and washing hands will help with the flu this year. If more people get the flu vaccine (as it has been recommended) and we follow the guidelines for controlling the spread of Covid, it should definitely help to control the flu season.

Focus should be on deaths and hospitalizations and not cases. Also, with hospitalizations, the more specific focus should be on ICU census.

Testing is up nationwide and as a result, cases are up. People like to jump on this number, without explaining or even looking into the why. It helps to sell a narrative. For example, NC reported 2,342 cases yesterday, but underneath this was a jump in testing. Yesterday, NC reported 38,654 tests, but you need to recognize this is 12,000 tests above the average for the 30 days. The actual percent positive for yesterday was actually lower than the day before.

As far as Covid patients in ICU, it has been 26% for the past few days and this percentage is the lowest percentage, since hospitalization data has been reported. This is a testament to better treatment options that are helping to lower the number of deaths. The trend for deaths (based on the date of death and not the date reported) continues to trend down in NC.

People and the media can continue to focus on cases as much as they want to sell their narrative, but it is a fools errand and it shows they do not really understand what is happening or even care to report it.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I don't watch the news, but I'm staying with friends in Raleigh tonight and the local news came on leading with the increase in cases and tying it to political rallies and football games without any context to those other statistics. I had to ask them to change the channel before I got mad.

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Now you see what I and others have been dealing with from the media and the scare tactics they have been using with regards to the virus. Most of the contact tracing reports I have seen (NC has a big problem with contract tracing by the way - I may do a post on this in the future) is most cases are coming from small family gatherings and restaurant/bars.

I would be highly suspect of any reports showing any connection to football games, since the only ones right now are college and they are highly regulated. Duke is still not allowing any fans and Wake has something close to 2,000. NC State, until last night, had not had a home game in three weeks. At the game last night, I watched the ushers near me, constantly remind people to wear their masks. We were so spaced out, it would be very doubtful anyone became infected at the game.

I just came back from grocery shopping for my father, had to visit two grocery stores, and during my time in both stores I saw no one not wearing a mask and people were following the social distancing guidelines.

Here is a much better graph, since it normalizes for population differences. I am showing deaths by day, since it shows the trends over time. Please note, at the peak of the virus, the US was well below several other countries at their peak.

You can also see that the US is relatively flat right now, while deaths by day are rising in several of the key European countries. Also, please take a note of Sweden, a country that did not have harsh lockdowns and was criticized early on by most of the mainstream media in the US and in other countries.




If you just want to look at total deaths, here is the graph of the same countries, normalized for the population. Since the US has a much larger population, you have to look at deaths normalized for population to get a better picture of how we are doing.

10/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
247172 (238894 PCR + 8278 Antigen)
NC Deaths
3892(PCR) + 47(Anitgen) = 3939 (+5 from yesterday)
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 92% reporting (was 1129 at 92%)
Completed Tests
3,640,086
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2,056 Deaths are now Congregate (+4 from yesterday)

52% of Deaths are from Congregate setting (80% of deaths were Congregate today)

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1,144 positive cases over 31,051 new tests (DHHS reports 29,711). 3.7% positive rate (DHHS reports 5.7%)

Dates of Death Reported 10/19:
10/18, 10/17(3), 10/16 <== PCR Deaths

No new Antigen tested deaths were reported today

Typical Monday with low number of deaths reported and lower number of tests. It is obvious that daily testing has increased significantly over the past couple of weeks and I expect this may continue for some time. The average number of daily tests (as reported by NCDHHS) has averaged 31,666 daily tests for the past two weeks. For the 30 days prior, the average daily tests were lower at 26,493 tests/day. The percent positive tests has averaged 6.2% for the past two weeks, which is above the 5.5% average for the 30 days prior to the 14 day period.

ciscopack said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Here is a much better graph, since it normalizes for population differences. I am showing deaths by day, since it shows the trends over time. Please note, at the peak of the virus, the US was well below several other countries at their peak.

You can also see that the US is relatively flat right now, while deaths by day are rising in several of the key European countries. Also, please take a note of Sweden, a country that did not have harsh lockdowns and was criticized early on by most of the mainstream media in the US and in other countries.




If you just want to look at total deaths, here is the graph of the same countries, normalized for the population. Since the US has a much larger population, you have to look at deaths normalized for population to get a better picture of how we are doing.

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2nd worst is good?

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I don't think I posted a value judgement. I am providing context and pointing out that lots of countries are having a hard time with the virus. Basically, the countries people were praising just a few weeks ago are now seeing increases in deaths and hospitalizations - in some cases, at higher rates than the US. The one country not seeing the jump in deaths and hospitalizations that the other countries are seeing is Sweden. Sweden is interesting to me, since my twin nephews live and work there. This is why I included it in the charts.