Coronavirus

309,665 Views | 5659 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by packgrad
Wayland
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Packchem91 said:

statefan91 said:

The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.
Hmmmm, surely nothing to cause suspicion there. So they made these adjustments with no footnotes, no nothing?

Do any reporters ever ask these guys questions about the changes in the reports?
Stealth edits under cover of a hurricane. Phase 2 announcement comes tomorrow.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

statefan91 said:

The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.
Hmmmm, surely nothing to cause suspicion there. So they made these adjustments with no footnotes, no nothing?

Do any reporters ever ask these guys questions about the changes in the reports?
Stealth edits under cover of a hurricane. Phase 2 announcement comes tomorrow.
Yep. It all makes sense now. Cooper has moved up his briefing from Friday to tomorrow and the day before, some weird, unexplained adjustments happen to their published percent positive test data. I am sorry, but the Cooper administration is far from transparent when it comes to Covid data.
wilmwolf80
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Far from transparent would be putting it very nicely.
Just A Guy
Packchem91
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Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

Packchem91 said:

statefan91 said:

The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.
Hmmmm, surely nothing to cause suspicion there. So they made these adjustments with no footnotes, no nothing?

Do any reporters ever ask these guys questions about the changes in the reports?
Stealth edits under cover of a hurricane. Phase 2 announcement comes tomorrow.
Yep. It all makes sense now. Cooper has moved up his briefing from Friday to tomorrow and the day before, some weird, unexplained adjustments happen to their published percent positive test data. I am sorry, but the Cooper administration is far from transparent when it comes to Covid data.
They are -- if just 1/2 of the local reporters who routinely grill (on twitter) and gripe about Trump's pressers -- which is very understandable -- would pay attention to what is happening in their very own houses, maybe Cooper would not be able to get away with this crap.
GuerrillaPack
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>>> Dr Fauci: "Right now in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks. Wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better...but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is."


"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Wayland
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/antibody-tests-may-miss-people-had-mild-symptoms-coronavirus/

I believe I cited this weeks if not months ago that the tests were calibrated against severe cases, so miss low level antibodies.
statefan91
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Not sure if it's due to State mask order, other factors, but Mecklenburg has clearly defined declines in hospitalizations and percent positives in latest posting:

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-August-2.aspx
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

Not sure if it's due to State mask order, other factors, but Mecklenburg has clearly defined declines in hospitalizations and percent positives in latest posting:

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-August-2.aspx
I noticed that but MHPC hospitalizations keep increasing, so someone in that group of Atrium and Novant is pumping cases in a non-Meck hospital (unless that reporting is lagged). Will see what they put out on Friday.

Meck hospitalizations should have been dropping for a while.
statefan91
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Technically, as of the reporting they were at their lowest in > 1 month for hospitalizations. Weird that Charlotte Observer didn't use that as a headline...
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Not sure if it's due to State mask order, other factors, but Mecklenburg has clearly defined declines in hospitalizations and percent positives in latest posting:

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-August-2.aspx
I noticed that but MHPC hospitalizations keep increasing, so someone in that group of Atrium and Novant is pumping cases in a non-Meck hospital (unless that reporting is lagged). Will see what they put out on Friday.

Meck hospitalizations should have been dropping for a while.
This has been one of the more confusing things to me. Mecklenburg hospitals have been showing declining hospital census for weeks, but the MHPC hospitalizations keep increasing. Something strange with the numbers, but media never asks why this is happening.
redsteel33
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Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
Wayland
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Daviewolf83 said:

Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Not sure if it's due to State mask order, other factors, but Mecklenburg has clearly defined declines in hospitalizations and percent positives in latest posting:

https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-August-2.aspx
I noticed that but MHPC hospitalizations keep increasing, so someone in that group of Atrium and Novant is pumping cases in a non-Meck hospital (unless that reporting is lagged). Will see what they put out on Friday.

Meck hospitalizations should have been dropping for a while.
This has been one of the more confusing things to me. Mecklenburg hospitals have been showing declining hospital census for weeks, but the MHPC hospitalizations keep increasing. Something strange with the numbers, but media never asks why this is happening.
Wonder if that is more double reporting they need to clean up.
Wayland
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redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
packgrad
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redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks


****ing ridiculous.
statefan91
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Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Doing the update now. Funny they ran out of cases to harvest on extension day.

Lowest number of cases reported in a day since June. I know it is partial an aggregation thing, but going to fire people up.
wilmwolf80
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I remain confused on why gyms are included in with bars. I get bars, drinking, making bad decisions, not social distancing, fine. But if a gym can open and limit the number of people inside, provide distance between machines, etc. I just don't get why they can't be open.
Just A Guy
Wayland
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Gyms should be open.
redsteel33
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The gym thing seems crazy to me - at this point those facilities would be OK with abiding by any requirements.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25
8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.
8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.



8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.
8/4/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
128,161
NC Deaths
2010
Currently Hospitalized
1166 <- 92% reporting (was 1057 at 79% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,854,026

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1048 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
301 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

661 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

321 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+14)
Nursing Homes 163 -> 170
Resident Care 95 -> 98
Correctional 34 -> 37
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2015* deaths

1629 positive cases over 16616 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 16616 but DHHS claims only 9667 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/4
8/3(2), 8/2(8), 8/1(9), 7/31(1), 7/30(3), 7/21, 7/19, 7/14, 7/2, and 1 added to Missing DoD.


Cases are higher than I would have guessed for lag. I think the case numbers are being bumped some by outbreak testing. A number of new correctional and nursing outbreaks caught. Did a quick glance down county data, and other than Meck posting a little higher than average lately (around 300 cases) most of the other case increases are from smaller counties having slightly higher case totals reported.

The amount of tests done is obscenely low and shows that it is all basically hospital cases, not outside labs being counted.
8/5/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
129,288
NC Deaths
2050
Currently Hospitalized
1167 <- 93% reporting (was 1166 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,854,026

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1065 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
311 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+40 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

674 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
1376 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)

322 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 170 -> 172
Resident Care 98 -> 98
Correctional 37 -> 39
Other 16 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2039* deaths

1127 positive cases over 19624 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 19624 but DHHS claims only 19444 completed tests

BACKLOG DAY
Dates of Death Reported 8/5
8/4, 8/3(5), 8/2(4), 8/1(4), 7/31(5), 7/30(4), 7/29(2), 7/28(5), 7/27(3), 7/26, 7/25, 7/24(4), 7/23(2), 7/8 , 7/6, 6/30

One removed on 7/14. I am getting one additional death assigned than should be accounted for, but there could be another removal that I am missing or just a reporting error.

Lowest case reported day since June

Deaths Added by County
Camden(2), Chatham(1), Davie(1), Duplin(1), Forsyth(2), Gaston(1), Granville(1), Guilford(3), Harnett(2), Haywood(1), McDowell(2), Meck(2), New Hanover(1), Richmond(1), Stanly(13)!!!!!!!!, Wake(3), Union(3)

Deaths Removed
Bladen 1

CONGREGATE DEATHS continue to drive the increase. 17 congregate and 10 unknowns reported today.
redsteel33
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Tweet right after the Phase 2 leak - lol...
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Since they can go back at their leisure and retroactively change the percent positive to be whatever they want and not have anyone call them out. We will forever be at their mercy.
Wayland
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redsteel33 said:



Tweet right after the Phase 2 leak - lol...
I told you they were going to run out of lag cases to harvest eventually.
TheStorm
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Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
It gets them within 2 months of the election... eye on the prize...
TheStorm
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statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Were you not wearing a mask prior to the mask mandate?
Wayland
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Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Since they can go back at their leisure and retroactively change the percent positive to be whatever they want and not have anyone call them out. We will forever be at their mercy.
Going to the data downloads, it looks like they are going to RE RETROACTIVELY change the percent positives back down. The dashboard hasn't updated the graph, but the data download looks like it is shifted back.

Someone got caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
statefan91
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Wayland said:

Gyms should be open.
Honestly it seems like most have found some way to open. Whether it's to serve those who say they medically need it, or having outdoor classes and training. The YMCA near me has an entire section of free weights outside now with squat racks and a variety of free weight machines.
statefan91
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TheStorm said:

statefan91 said:


No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Were you not wearing a mask prior to the mask mandate?
Yes I was wearing one prior to the mandate. I can't speak to whether there is a significant population of people that weren't and now are though.
BruceDouble
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I get the whole science behind heavy breathing but If bowling alleys can win a lawsuit to reopen, I don't see how gyms can't with certain conditions.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

redsteel33 said:

Per WRAL - Sources: NC will stay in Phase 2, bars and gyms stay closed, for at least 4 weeks
I don't even have words.
No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Since they can go back at their leisure and retroactively change the percent positive to be whatever they want and not have anyone call them out. We will forever be at their mercy.
Going to the data downloads, it looks like they are going to RE RETROACTIVELY change the percent positives back down. The dashboard hasn't updated the graph, but the data download looks like it is shifted back.

Someone got caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
They have not adjusted the graph showing percent positives by date for today (yet). The percent positives start on 8/3, but should be starting on 8/4. They are showing the same numbers I recorded yesterday. Possible they realized the graph they posted yesterday contains errors and may adjust later. I think you are right that someone got caught with a hand in the cookie jar.
packgrad
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statefan91 said:

Wayland said:

Gyms should be open.
Honestly it seems like most have found some way to open. Whether it's to serve those who say they medically need it, or having outdoor classes and training. The YMCA near me has an entire section of free weights outside now with squat racks and a variety of free weight machines.


In Durham, that is not the case.
IseWolf22
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I went to a gym in Charleston a couple times while spending the week at Isle of Palms. Despite rules, I don't think staff or many people were treating things that seriously. There's still a lot of sweat and fluids flying around between machines barely 6 feet apart and there are just some unavoidable bottlenecks in gym layout. The Dumbbell rack was the worst with benches being located too close to the rack and no one cleaning them off after use

That said, Gyms should still be open. Let people make a measured decision on the risk for themselves. Some gyms will enforce rules more than others and people can decided for themselves if they are still willing to show up. Personally I wouldn't go again, but I have a full Power rack in my garage and don't need to.
Packchem91
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statefan91 said:

TheStorm said:

statefan91 said:


No one should be surprised by this (no offense intended). We're now seeing declines in numbers, but that will be attributed to the fact that we're still in Phase 2 and we have a mask mandate. They aren't going to move us into Phase 3 until we're at ~5% positivity
Were you not wearing a mask prior to the mask mandate?
Yes I was wearing one prior to the mandate. I can't speak to whether there is a significant population of people that weren't and now are though.
Yeah, its pretty obvious the mask wearing is much higher now than 2 mos ago. I was just in Boone / Blowing Rock and every store we went to had requirements to wear masks. As do many big box stores now. People may take them off when they leave, but I think that has to help at least a little while in the store / restaurant, etc.

*And I fully acknowledge that it also requires social distancing, not just the mask. Clearly some wear masks and think that means they can get up in your grill like "the old days"
Wayland
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Two minutes from briefing. I wonder if the WRAL story was a trial balloon or Coop is really going to keep gyms locked down another month.
Wayland
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OK. So they are claiming cases are low because of a reporting anomaly. Going to add new tests back in.

OK Mandy.

Straight up misrepresenting data again in the briefing. By zooming the graph in to the last few days and stopping on Sunday.

One of the reasons provided for why we are not going forward is because not enough people are seeking tests.
 
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