Coronavirus

1,981,003 Views | 19755 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Werewolf
Wayland
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So the CDC tracks ED visits for CLI for all hospitals.

Why do the NC DHHS values for CLI differ so greatly from the CDC ones?

CDC



DHHS
TheStorm
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.




Well they're going to have to start getting more innovative in how they manipulate the numbers if they're going to stay with the same narrative... first problem is there never really was a true second spike in NC to begin with (the numbers drifted up some but they never left the general range that they were already in) - but they used the increase in tests (which yielded higher # of cases, albeit at the same general percentages) to incite the panic and artificially back up their mask mandate.

Then we get a clear policy change on Hospital admits, but Cohen and Cooper respond with "I see nothing"... so now they're trying to throw extra deaths in from dates gone by to see if they can generate another "spike" to confuse the general public with (they reported 174 deaths over a 5 day period last week - probably easily a high for any 5 day period since this started).

Problems with that are, 1) there is no other active - or more properly "lagged" - trend to support those numbers, and b) if you can't sustain reporting those numbers over and over and over the impact on the overall numbers goes right back away in 2 or 3 days (which it has basically already done).

Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.
TheStorm
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TheStorm said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.




Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.
Yeah, I know that's not what is going to happen either but I had to type it just for fun... I think anyone with half a brain knows what's coming next.
Wayland
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TheStorm said:

TheStorm said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.




Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.
Yeah, I know that's not what is going to happen either but I had to type it just for fun... I think anyone with half a brain knows what's coming next.
I have been sitting and spinning trying to figure out how they will find a way to hide the case drop. What kind of data games they will play. Without manipulation or finding some mass amount of outbreak cases somewhere there is almost no way one of the next two days won't be the lowest 'reported' since June.

The lagged cases seem mostly caught up, and the reported days where most of the specimens will originate for the next two reporting days are the weekend days.
packgrad
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When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?
Wayland
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I thought it was Friday.

July 16, 2020

Extends Executive Order 141's Safer At Home Phase 2 measures until at least Aug. 7, 2020.
packgrad
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Thanks
ncsualum05
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Wayland said:

I thought it was Friday.

July 16, 2020

Extends Executive Order 141's Safer At Home Phase 2 measures until at least Aug. 7, 2020.
Damn that's coming up. This is going to be a fun week of tracking data. Think of all the dumping and manipulation they will do in preparation for that press conference. You could have a goldmine of stuff to feed the media Wayland if they weren't complicit with the governor.
statefan91
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packgrad said:

When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?
I wouldn't get your hopes up, if I'm thinking about it realistically. They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops. They'll use a target like 4-5% which I think Davie has mentioned, but then also continue the focused testing of nursing homes and meat packing plants which just boost the numbers vs. general pop.

I'm not expecting us to be out of Phase II until there is a vaccine and/or we're < 5% positivity.
acslater1344
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

acslater1344 said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

PackBacker07 said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

So much for doctors being able to have their own opinion about how to treat Covid-19. Dr. Simone Gold who is the originator of the Front Line Doctors, was fired yesterday because she "appeared in an embarrassing video." A doctor with 20 years experience in Emergency Room medicine has been cancelled because she can think for herself and believes HCQ is good way to treat Covid 19.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/hydroxychloroquine-touting-doctor-fired


https://www.centinelamed.com/News/2020/July/STATEMENT-RE-SIMONE-GOLD-MD.aspx

You should not read The Blaze.
Why? Because they tell the truth? If they make a mistake they correct it. Unlike most main stream media members. You read what you want to read and I will read what I want to read. I know I am informed.

Sorry to get off the coronavirus topic.




LOL so she was fired from a place that hasn't employed her in years? She's an attention ***** that is taking advantage of an awful situation to make money. and lord knows it's gonna work. I'm sure you'll buy whatever she tries to sell you down the road.


She sounds pretty similar to every single politician, news outlets etc during this entire covid crap. I ain't saying I do or don't believe her but you throwing out that line that someone will buy whatever is thrown out down the road, is the exact same thing you're doing with the media coverage you decide to watch.



May want to check some of my previous posts about the dangers of both obviously liberal/conservative news outlets. I try to be skeptical of anyone with a clear political agenda other than speaking facts. I feel the same way about "experts" talking about locking the country back up.
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

packgrad said:

When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?
I wouldn't get your hopes up, if I'm thinking about it realistically. They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops. They'll use a target like 4-5% which I think Davie has mentioned, but then also continue the focused testing of nursing homes and meat packing plants which just boost the numbers vs. general pop.

I'm not expecting us to be out of Phase II until there is a vaccine and/or we're < 5% positivity.
Which when you are only counting hospital testing is a really tough metric to hit. If they actually included ALL testing, we are getting close.

I tend to agree, they way they have been misrepresenting their own statistics to keep the narrative away from the fact that we have been in a decline for a month now, means they won't change much.

Can also always just use raw case numbers and just say there are too many cases in general.

I still would like to see them explain the discrepancy in the CLI line vs what the CDC has for NC. Since that is the only chart from the CLI surveillance they use. If you look at other states that are hit harder you can see the obvious peaking in CLI. It could be just a reporting issue, but they should address why they are reporting a much higher CLI number in surveillance than they report to the CDC.
RunsWithWolves26
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acslater1344 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

acslater1344 said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

PackBacker07 said:

DrummerboyWolf said:

So much for doctors being able to have their own opinion about how to treat Covid-19. Dr. Simone Gold who is the originator of the Front Line Doctors, was fired yesterday because she "appeared in an embarrassing video." A doctor with 20 years experience in Emergency Room medicine has been cancelled because she can think for herself and believes HCQ is good way to treat Covid 19.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/hydroxychloroquine-touting-doctor-fired


https://www.centinelamed.com/News/2020/July/STATEMENT-RE-SIMONE-GOLD-MD.aspx

You should not read The Blaze.
Why? Because they tell the truth? If they make a mistake they correct it. Unlike most main stream media members. You read what you want to read and I will read what I want to read. I know I am informed.

Sorry to get off the coronavirus topic.




LOL so she was fired from a place that hasn't employed her in years? She's an attention ***** that is taking advantage of an awful situation to make money. and lord knows it's gonna work. I'm sure you'll buy whatever she tries to sell you down the road.


She sounds pretty similar to every single politician, news outlets etc during this entire covid crap. I ain't saying I do or don't believe her but you throwing out that line that someone will buy whatever is thrown out down the road, is the exact same thing you're doing with the media coverage you decide to watch.



May want to check some of my previous posts about the dangers of both obviously liberal/conservative news outlets. I try to be skeptical of anyone with a clear political agenda other than speaking facts. I feel the same way about "experts" talking about locking the country back up.


Don't need to check your previous post. You made a statement and I responded to it. You didn't like what the doctor said so you decided it best to, in your way, discredit her because she didn't say what you wanted to hear or agreed with. Everyone has a bias, it's in our nature. Again, I don't know that I believe her or not but the line you threw out is one that could easily be thrown back to you as well. Just a simple observation.
Daviewolf83
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statefan91 said:

packgrad said:

When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?
I wouldn't get your hopes up, if I'm thinking about it realistically. They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops. They'll use a target like 4-5% which I think Davie has mentioned, but then also continue the focused testing of nursing homes and meat packing plants which just boost the numbers vs. general pop.

I'm not expecting us to be out of Phase II until there is a vaccine and/or we're < 5% positivity.
As I understand it, the target for Percent Positive testing is still 5% or less. Since we do not know NCDHHS's methodology for the calculation of this percentage, it is difficult to forecast when we might reach this number. I have added a line showing the 5% target.

As I have mentioned in the past, NCDHHS will often go back and make adjustments to their published percent positive. I have included a chart below that shows the originally reported percent positive (what the media reports daily) compared to the current percent positive posted on the NCDHHS website for each date. The originally reported percent positive is in blue and the updated percent positive is in orange. As you can see, the typical percent positive adjustment is lower than the originally reported percent positive they media reports.

Below is an update to my graph that compares the NCDHHS percent positive percentage to the percent positive you get when you divide the daily new cases by the daily new tests. As you can see, both are showing declining trend lines. The daily new cases and daily new tests are calculated by subtracting the total number of positive cases and total number of tests for yesterday from the total positive cases and total number of tests for today.


Percent Positive Tracking (NCDHHS vs Calculated):




Originally Reported Percent Positive vs Adjusted Percent Positive:

wilmwolf
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"They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops"

That's really my main beef with the policies they have enacted. They are so open ended, and vague, that regardless of which way the numbers go, they can find justification for extending them. If numbers go down, they say "see, the measures worked, so we're going to keep them in place". If the numbers go up they say "you guys weren't following the measures well enough, so we're going to keep them in place". It's really a no lose situation for those making the decisions, which are definitely tough decisions, and the fluid nature of this thing makes it more difficult. I just wish there were more concrete targets. At this point in time, we should know enough about the virus to make those types of decisions. Of course, the cynic in me says even if they set hard targets, they'll probably just manipulate the data to keep us from hitting the marks.


Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Packchem91
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wilmwolf80 said:

"They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops"

That's really my main beef with the policies they have enacted. They are so open ended, and vague, that regardless of which way the numbers go, they can find justification for extending them. If numbers go down, they say "see, the measures worked, so we're going to keep them in place". If the numbers go up they say "you guys weren't following the measures well enough, so we're going to keep them in place". It's really a no lose situation for those making the decisions, which are definitely tough decisions, and the fluid nature of this thing makes it more difficult. I just wish there were more concrete targets. At this point in time, we should know enough about the virus to make those types of decisions. Of course, the cynic in me says even if they set hard targets, they'll probably just manipulate the data to keep us from hitting the marks.



Politics 101. Or sadly, in this era, "Leadership 101".
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25
8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.
8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.



8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.
Packchem91
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Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.
Wayland
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NC presumed recoveries greater than reported cases for the second straight week.

12791 > 12194
packgrad
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statefan91, FYI. Sure you probably already know, but just in case.


statefan91
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packgrad said:

statefan91, FYI. Sure you probably already know, but just in case.



Haha, thanks, good to know (hadn't heard from school yet).

At this point we're just going to do virtual academy and keep my son in daycare. We'll basically be paying to keep his spot in the program he got into but it doesn't cost most much compared to daycare. I don't think daycare would want to have him going to school for a week and then rotating back to daycare for two weeks. Just easier to wait until everything opens back up fully since we can afford it.
acslater1344
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Packchem91 said:

Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.

Interesting... I wonder if any bars in Meck will test the policy. Apparently ALE officers were making the rounds just after 11pm last weekend to make sure nobody was being served. No idea if any tickets/fines were being issued, though.
Packchem91
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acslater1344 said:

Packchem91 said:

Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.

Interesting... I wonder if any bars in Meck will test the policy. Apparently ALE officers were making the rounds just after 11pm last weekend to make sure nobody was being served. No idea if any tickets/fines were being issued, though.
PINS Mechanical bar over in SouthEnd broadcast last week they were going to reopen -- and they did. But it only lasted a day, and reads like the Charlotte police went and enforced that they close again

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/07/31/south-end-bar-pins-mechanical-closes-one-day-after-reopening/

They were pretty public about their plans....in a glaring 'hood. I'm guessing there have been some more discrete that have given it a run as well.

Unfortunately, its not feeling like there will be any relief this coming Friday...which will likely make it another 3-4 weeks for these hard-hit businesses. Its easy to understand their desperation.
cowboypack02
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TheStorm said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.




Well they're going to have to start getting more innovative in how they manipulate the numbers if they're going to stay with the same narrative... first problem is there never really was a true second spike in NC to begin with (the numbers drifted up some but they never left the general range that they were already in) - but they used the increase in tests (which yielded higher # of cases, albeit at the same general percentages) to incite the panic and artificially back up their mask mandate.

Then we get a clear policy change on Hospital admits, but Cohen and Cooper respond with "I see nothing"... so now they're trying to throw extra deaths in from dates gone by to see if they can generate another "spike" to confuse the general public with (they reported 174 deaths over a 5 day period last week - probably easily a high for any 5 day period since this started).

Problems with that are, 1) there is no other active - or more properly "lagged" - trend to support those numbers, and b) if you can't sustain reporting those numbers over and over and over the impact on the overall numbers goes right back away in 2 or 3 days (which it has basically already done).

Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.

LOL....you've never met a politician have you?
Packchem91
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Per Joe Bruno tweet -- Meck County Health Director Gibbie Harris says positivity rate is declining and is now at 8.9%, and hospitalizations are down.

Not sure if Meck County ever fully resolved the issue of including all test results in its counts (positive and negative, regardless of where administered).
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25
8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.
8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.



8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.
8/4/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
128,161
NC Deaths
2010
Currently Hospitalized
1166 <- 92% reporting (was 1057 at 79% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,854,026

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1048 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
301 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

661 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

321 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+14)
Nursing Homes 163 -> 170
Resident Care 95 -> 98
Correctional 34 -> 37
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2015* deaths

1629 positive cases over 16616 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 16616 but DHHS claims only 9667 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/4
8/3(2), 8/2(8), 8/1(9), 7/31(1), 7/30(3), 7/21, 7/19, 7/14, 7/2, and 1 added to Missing DoD.


Cases are higher than I would have guessed for lag. I think the case numbers are being bumped some by outbreak testing. A number of new correctional and nursing outbreaks caught. Did a quick glance down county data, and other than Meck posting a little higher than average lately (around 300 cases) most of the other case increases are from smaller counties having slightly higher case totals reported.

The amount of tests done is obscenely low and shows that it is all basically hospital cases, not outside labs being counted.
Packchem91
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Wayland -- on the nursing home outbreaks....are those cumulative numbers (includes history where some may be resolved now) or current outbreaks?
Wayland
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Packchem91 said:

Wayland -- on the nursing home outbreaks....are those cumulative numbers (includes history where some may be resolved now) or current outbreaks?
That is only active current outbreaks.

I did a quick scan of the outbreak reports I had downloaded and there have been at least 108 outbreaks that are considered resolved and no longer on the report (and removed from daily counts)
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25
8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.
8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.



8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.
8/4/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
128,161
NC Deaths
2010
Currently Hospitalized
1166 <- 92% reporting (was 1057 at 79% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,854,026

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1048 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
301 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

661 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

321 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+14)
Nursing Homes 163 -> 170
Resident Care 95 -> 98
Correctional 34 -> 37
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2015* deaths

1629 positive cases over 16616 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 16616 but DHHS claims only 9667 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/4
8/3(2), 8/2(8), 8/1(9), 7/31(1), 7/30(3), 7/21, 7/19, 7/14, 7/2, and 1 added to Missing DoD.


Cases are higher than I would have guessed for lag. I think the case numbers are being bumped some by outbreak testing. A number of new correctional and nursing outbreaks caught. Did a quick glance down county data, and other than Meck posting a little higher than average lately (around 300 cases) most of the other case increases are from smaller counties having slightly higher case totals reported.

The amount of tests done is obscenely low and shows that it is all basically hospital cases, not outside labs being counted.
They also went back and revised most of the percent positive test percentages on their graph. In most cases, they have increased the percent positive from the percentage they showed on the graph yesterday.


Wayland
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How is that showing any sort of integrity? And they get up at briefings and spout nonsense about 'transparency'.
statefan91
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The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

How is that showing any sort of integrity? And they get up at briefings and spout nonsense about 'transparency'.

Totally agree. I was shocked when I saw the updates today. I always go back though them every day and I usually find that they update 3 to 5 days back. Today, the updates kept coming. I double-checked the numbers a couple of times to make sure I was not off by a column in my spreadsheet. Even if I was, the numbers for the other dates would have increased as well. I suspect it is in preparation for Friday's press conference where they can say the percent positive is still too high.
Wayland
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Today was super unusual with the reporting. The absurdly low number of completed tests and the relatively higher percent positive. I know that is mostly due to case sources, but I feel like they are playing with numbers some to not have things dip too low early this week.

Maybe I misjudged just how good they were getting on some of that lag.



Actually had more cases within the 9 day window today than last Tuesday.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Today was super unusual with the reporting. The absurdly low number of completed tests and the relatively higher percent positive. I know that is mostly due to case sources, but I feel like they are playing with numbers some to not have things dip too low early this week.

Maybe I misjudged just how good they were getting on some of that lag.



Actually had more cases within the 9 day window today than last Tuesday.
Here is my graph showing the distribution of cases announced today. Almost 1,400 of the cases reported today are from tests run Saturday or earlier.

Wayland
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I was a little surprised to see Friday that high. Thought we would get a little more drop there. Will see if they can maintain this. My rough estimation is that they have 600 or so more cases they can scoop from the weekend. Not sure how many from last week, all this testing of prisons and LTC's throws things off.
Packchem91
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statefan91 said:

The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.
Hmmmm, surely nothing to cause suspicion there. So they made these adjustments with no footnotes, no nothing?

Do any reporters ever ask these guys questions about the changes in the reports?
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