So the CDC tracks ED visits for CLI for all hospitals.

Why do the NC DHHS values for CLI differ so greatly from the CDC ones?

CDC



DHHS

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

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Well they're going to have to start getting more innovative in how they manipulate the numbers if they're going to stay with the same narrative... first problem is there never really was a true second spike in NC to begin with (the numbers drifted up some but they never left the general range that they were already in) - but they used the increase in tests (which yielded higher # of cases, albeit at the same general percentages) to incite the panic and artificially back up their mask mandate.

Then we get a clear policy change on Hospital admits, but Cohen and Cooper respond with "I see nothing"... so now they're trying to throw extra deaths in from dates gone by to see if they can generate another "spike" to confuse the general public with (they reported 174 deaths over a 5 day period last week - probably easily a high for any 5 day period since this started).

Problems with that are, 1) there is no other active - or more properly "lagged" - trend to support those numbers, and b) if you can't sustain reporting those numbers over and over and over the impact on the overall numbers goes right back away in 2 or 3 days (which it has basically already done).

Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.

TheStorm said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

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Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.

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Yeah, I know that's not what is going to happen either but I had to type it just for fun... I think anyone with half a brain knows what's coming next.

TheStorm said:

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TheStorm said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

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Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.

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Yeah, I know that's not what is going to happen either but I had to type it just for fun... I think anyone with half a brain knows what's coming next.

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I have been sitting and spinning trying to figure out how they will find a way to hide the case drop. What kind of data games they will play. Without manipulation or finding some mass amount of outbreak cases somewhere there is almost no way one of the next two days won't be the lowest 'reported' since June.

The lagged cases seem mostly caught up, and the reported days where most of the specimens will originate for the next two reporting days are the weekend days.

When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?

I thought it was Friday.

July 16, 2020

Extends Executive Order 141's Safer At Home Phase 2 measures until at least Aug. 7, 2020.

Thanks

Wayland said:

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I thought it was Friday.

July 16, 2020

Extends Executive Order 141's Safer At Home Phase 2 measures until at least Aug. 7, 2020.

---

Damn that's coming up. This is going to be a fun week of tracking data. Think of all the dumping and manipulation they will do in preparation for that press conference. You could have a goldmine of stuff to feed the media Wayland if they weren't complicit with the governor.

packgrad said:

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When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?

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I wouldn't get your hopes up, if I'm thinking about it realistically. They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops. They'll use a target like 4-5% which I think Davie has mentioned, but then also continue the focused testing of nursing homes and meat packing plants which just boost the numbers vs. general pop.

I'm not expecting us to be out of Phase II until there is a vaccine and/or we're < 5% positivity.

statefan91 said:

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packgrad said:

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When are we at his next decision date for Phase 3?

---

I wouldn't get your hopes up, if I'm thinking about it realistically. They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops. They'll use a target like 4-5% which I think Davie has mentioned, but then also continue the focused testing of nursing homes and meat packing plants which just boost the numbers vs. general pop.

I'm not expecting us to be out of Phase II until there is a vaccine and/or we're < 5% positivity.

---

Which when you are only counting hospital testing is a really tough metric to hit. If they actually included ALL testing, we are getting close.

I tend to agree, they way they have been misrepresenting their own statistics to keep the narrative away from the fact that we have been in a decline for a month now, means they won't change much.

Can also always just use raw case numbers and just say there are too many cases in general.

I still would like to see them explain the discrepancy in the CLI line vs what the CDC has for NC. Since that is the only chart from the CLI surveillance they use. If you look at other states that are hit harder you can see the obvious peaking in CLI. It could be just a reporting issue, but they should address why they are reporting a much higher CLI number in surveillance than they report to the CDC.

wilmwolf80 said:

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"They will say that any leveling or drop is due to the strategies we're using currently, so we can't roll them back until we have more sustained leveling or drops"

That's really my main beef with the policies they have enacted. They are so open ended, and vague, that regardless of which way the numbers go, they can find justification for extending them. If numbers go down, they say "see, the measures worked, so we're going to keep them in place". If the numbers go up they say "you guys weren't following the measures well enough, so we're going to keep them in place". It's really a no lose situation for those making the decisions, which are definitely tough decisions, and the fluid nature of this thing makes it more difficult. I just wish there were more concrete targets. At this point in time, we should know enough about the virus to make those types of decisions. Of course, the cynic in me says even if they set hard targets, they'll probably just manipulate the data to keep us from hitting the marks.

---

Politics 101. Or sadly, in this era, "Leadership 101".

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25

---

8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.

---

8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

---

8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.

Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.

statefan91, FYI. Sure you probably already know, but just in case.

packgrad said:

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statefan91, FYI. Sure you probably already know, but just in case.

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Haha, thanks, good to know (hadn't heard from school yet).

At this point we're just going to do virtual academy and keep my son in daycare. We'll basically be paying to keep his spot in the program he got into but it doesn't cost most much compared to daycare. I don't think daycare would want to have him going to school for a week and then rotating back to daycare for two weeks. Just easier to wait until everything opens back up fully since we can afford it.

Packchem91 said:

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Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.

---

Interesting... I wonder if any bars in Meck will test the policy. Apparently ALE officers were making the rounds just after 11pm last weekend to make sure nobody was being served. No idea if any tickets/fines were being issued, though.

acslater1344 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Recently Mecklenburg County had enacted tougher restrictions than the state announced in restricting restaurants from serving food or alcohol at bar/counter areas after 11pm....joined in by the 7 towns within Meck. Now Cornelius, Huntersville, and Mint Hill are all backing out of that restriction --- at least in regards to allowing food services after 11pm. Will still restrict sales of alcohol, but at least you can get food at those types of counters now.
It became too punitive for those restaurants to not be able to serve late-night food.

---

Interesting... I wonder if any bars in Meck will test the policy. Apparently ALE officers were making the rounds just after 11pm last weekend to make sure nobody was being served. No idea if any tickets/fines were being issued, though.

---

PINS Mechanical bar over in SouthEnd broadcast last week they were going to reopen -- and they did. But it only lasted a day, and reads like the Charlotte police went and enforced that they close again

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/07/31/south-end-bar-pins-mechanical-closes-one-day-after-reopening/

They were pretty public about their plans....in a glaring 'hood. I'm guessing there have been some more discrete that have given it a run as well.

Unfortunately, its not feeling like there will be any relief this coming Friday...which will likely make it another 3-4 weeks for these hard-hit businesses. Its easy to understand their desperation.

TheStorm said:

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Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Quote:

---

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

---

---

---

Well they're going to have to start getting more innovative in how they manipulate the numbers if they're going to stay with the same narrative... first problem is there never really was a true second spike in NC to begin with (the numbers drifted up some but they never left the general range that they were already in) - but they used the increase in tests (which yielded higher # of cases, albeit at the same general percentages) to incite the panic and artificially back up their mask mandate.

Then we get a clear policy change on Hospital admits, but Cohen and Cooper respond with "I see nothing"... so now they're trying to throw extra deaths in from dates gone by to see if they can generate another "spike" to confuse the general public with (they reported 174 deaths over a 5 day period last week - probably easily a high for any 5 day period since this started).

Problems with that are, 1) there is no other active - or more properly "lagged" - trend to support those numbers, and b) if you can't sustain reporting those numbers over and over and over the impact on the overall numbers goes right back away in 2 or 3 days (which it has basically already done).

Sooner or later they are going to have to admit that the situation isn't really what they've been saying it is.

---

LOL....you've never met a politician have you?

Per Joe Bruno tweet -- Meck County Health Director Gibbie Harris says positivity rate is declining and is now at 8.9%, and hospitalizations are down.

Not sure if Meck County ever fully resolved the issue of including all test results in its counts (positive and negative, regardless of where administered).

Wayland said:

---

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
122,148
NC Deaths
1924
Currently Hospitalized
1229 <- 91% reporting (was 1239 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,757,102

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1010 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
282 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

632 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1292 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

309 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+12)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 164
Resident Care 90 -> 94
Correctional 31 -> 34
Other 16 -> 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1929* deaths

1954 positive cases over 32178 new tests. 6.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 32178 but DHHS claims only 27741 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 7/30 - +21, +2 Previously Missing Date, 1 Death Removed
7/30(2), 7/29(10), 7/28(4), 7/27(2), 7/26, 7/25(3), 7/21, 7/20

1 death removed on 6/25

---

8/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
123,878
NC Deaths
1964
Currently Hospitalized
1151 <- 92% reporting (was 1229 at 91% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,786,412

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1031 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
291 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

642 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1322 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+30)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-5)
Nursing Homes 164 -> 162
Resident Care 94 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 33
Other 17 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1952* deaths

1730 positive cases over 29310 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 29310 but DHHS claims only 26510 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/1 40 deaths
7/31(6), 7/30(13), 7/29(3), 7/28(5), 7/26(2), 7/25(3), 7/24(3), 7/23, 7/22, 7/21, 7/20, and 7/14

Congregate deaths continue to be through the roof. 116 congregate and 60 unknown deaths reported the last 10 days.

Case reporting lag is getting super tight. Next two days case numbers should plummet.

---

8/2/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
125,219
NC Deaths
1969
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 85% reporting (was 1151 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,813,510

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1033 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
292 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

644 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1325 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

305 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 162
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 33 -> 34
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1992* deaths

1341 positive cases over 27098 new tests. 4.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27098 but DHHS claims only 24962 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/2
8/1, 7/31, 7/30, 7/22 and one missing.

Cases by date of specimen keep declining. If they continue to call this 'stabilization' it is a bold faced lie.

---

8/3/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
126,532
NC Deaths
1982
Currently Hospitalized
1057 <- 79% reporting (was 1142 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,837,410

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1038 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
295 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+13 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

649 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1333 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

307 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
Nursing Homes 162 -> 163
Resident Care 95 -> 95
Correctional 34 -> 34
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2000* deaths

1313 positive cases over 23900 new tests. 5.5% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 23900 but DHHS claims only 20378 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/3
8/2(2), 8/1(7), 7/31, 7/30, 7/29, and 7/26
They also removed 1 death from the missing dates of death tally, but I couldn't locate a 14th death assigned.

RE: Hospitalizations. Someone big in the Triad likely missed reporting. Their numbers dropped too far in one day to be organic. I would figure at least 80 additional if the missing hospital was in.

---

8/4/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
128,161
NC Deaths
2010
Currently Hospitalized
1166 <- 92% reporting (was 1057 at 79% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,854,026

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1048 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
301 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

661 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

321 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+14)
Nursing Homes 163 -> 170
Resident Care 95 -> 98
Correctional 34 -> 37
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2015* deaths

1629 positive cases over 16616 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 16616 but DHHS claims only 9667 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/4
8/3(2), 8/2(8), 8/1(9), 7/31(1), 7/30(3), 7/21, 7/19, 7/14, 7/2, and 1 added to Missing DoD.


Cases are higher than I would have guessed for lag. I think the case numbers are being bumped some by outbreak testing. A number of new correctional and nursing outbreaks caught. Did a quick glance down county data, and other than Meck posting a little higher than average lately (around 300 cases) most of the other case increases are from smaller counties having slightly higher case totals reported.

The amount of tests done is obscenely low and shows that it is all basically hospital cases, not outside labs being counted.

Wayland -- on the nursing home outbreaks....are those cumulative numbers (includes history where some may be resolved now) or current outbreaks?

Packchem91 said:

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Wayland -- on the nursing home outbreaks....are those cumulative numbers (includes history where some may be resolved now) or current outbreaks?

---

That is only active current outbreaks.

I did a quick scan of the outbreak reports I had downloaded and there have been at least 108 outbreaks that are considered resolved and no longer on the report (and removed from daily counts)

How is that showing any sort of integrity? And they get up at briefings and spout nonsense about 'transparency'.

The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.

Today was super unusual with the reporting. The absurdly low number of completed tests and the relatively higher percent positive. I know that is mostly due to case sources, but I feel like they are playing with numbers some to not have things dip too low early this week.

Maybe I misjudged just how good they were getting on some of that lag.



Actually had more cases within the 9 day window today than last Tuesday.

I was a little surprised to see Friday that high. Thought we would get a little more drop there. Will see if they can maintain this. My rough estimation is that they have 600 or so more cases they can scoop from the weekend. Not sure how many from last week, all this testing of prisons and LTC's throws things off.

statefan91 said:

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The average increase looks close to 2% across those dates, that's pretty significant.

---

Hmmmm, surely nothing to cause suspicion there. So they made these adjustments with no footnotes, no nothing?

Do any reporters ever ask these guys questions about the changes in the reports?