Pacfanweb said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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"
Are they a cure all? Nope, but really....the people bucking up on this are the same ones that are crying "conspiracy" every time someone commits suicide, every time the gov't tells us to do ANYTHING, etc. Everything to do with politicians is some kind of plot to advance socialism, they'll tell you.

"First it's masks, next thing is socialism and labor camps...quick, go buy some more ammo!"

It's a damn mask. Other nations have done this for years. It's not a socialist plot to get us used to being told to do things, it's a damn mask. That's it. It's not going to kill you. Wear the damn thing and get over yourselves. "


This is a dangerously broad brush. I am dubious about many aspects of masking up, but I'm still wearing a mask. I don't think that telling people to wear a mask is a socialist plot, or a conspiracy, or political, or anything else. Plainly, when people wear masks, there is a false sense of security. Social distancing breaks down. Telling people to wear a mask and it will all go away in six weeks is completely misleading. Wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, and good hygiene will SLOW the spread of the virus incrementally, depending on other factors. Spreading "wear a mask or we'll all die" fear around results in people getting pepper spayed in a dog park for not wearing a mask, which is ****ing stupid. By all means, wear a mask, but if there is someone out there not wearing one, just keep your distance and go in living your damn life.

---

But you're going to the other extreme. Nobody's telling us that "it will all go away in 6 weeks"...at least, nobody in a position of authority that I'm aware of. Anyone who is, is no better than the folks who think everything's a conspiracy.
So it's not "wear one or we all die" and it's not "don't wear one, it's a plot and they don't help".....it's somewhere in the middle, like it always is.

That said, there are a damn lot of folks just like I described, and many of them are perfectly intelligent and reasonable folks otherwise...engineers, doctors and whatnot. But for whatever reason, have bought into the "must be a sinister motive behind everything" line of thinking.

---

Not "Go away" but we all know how these statements get interpreted.

"Widespread wearing of masks could get COVID-19 under control within 4-8 weeks, CDC director says"

https://fox6now.com/2020/07/15/widespread-wearing-of-masks-could-get-covid-19-under-control-within-4-8-weeks-cdc-director-says/

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

---

7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

---

7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

---

7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15

---

7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.

---

7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.

---

7/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
105,001
NC Deaths
1698
Currently Hospitalized
1137 <- 90% reporting (was 1179 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,491,820

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
915 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
231 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

552 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1146 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 150 -> 154
Resident Care 108 -> 110
Correctional 24 -> 27
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1703* deaths

2140 positive cases over 32823 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 32,823, but DHHS says 31,815

Dates of Death Reported 7/22
7/21, 7/20(8), 7/19(3), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/15, 7/14(4), 7/13(2), 6/28(2), 1 DHHS Missing Date = 29
1 I didn't find a date for. Double checking to see if I missed it.

County Deaths:
Brunswick, Burke(2), Cumberland, Gaston(2), Harnett, Hoke, Iredell(2), Meck(2), Montgomery, Moore(4), Nash(3), Pender, Randolph, Richmond, Union, Wake(6)

EDIT: RE HOSPITALIZATIONS. It looks like New Hanover Regional Medical Center DID NOT REPORT today. They account for 80%+ of hospitalized patients in SHPR so their ~50 missing patients is significant.

---

7/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
106,893
NC Deaths
1726
Currently Hospitalized
1188 <- 94% reporting (was 1137 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,524,643

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
929 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
235 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

562 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1164 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

314 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 154 -> 160
Resident Care 110 -> 114
Correctional 27 -> 26
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1734* deaths

1892 positive cases over 31855 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 31,855, but DHHS says 30,430

Dates of Death Reported 7/23 - LAG DAY
7/22(3), 7/21(3), 7/20(3), 7/19(1), 7/18(1), 7/16(2), 7/15, 7/14(2), 7/12, 7/10, 7/9, 7/8, 6/30(2), 6/26, 6/11, 5/29(2), 5/17, and 1 missing date

It looks like they adjusted yesterday hospitalizations to be 1188 to match today and a new high. Still only 9 higher than 1 week ago.

Case trends still holding in decline as of 9 day lag window.

Still reviewing county data.
County Deaths
5 for Duplin
4 for Pitt
no other county more than 2.
There are your likely culprits for the lag.

Another oddity with county data. County reported cases today only add up to 1747. There are 145 cases that don't have an assignment. The last time that happened with that kind of difference came on the announcement of the extension of Phase 2.

---

7/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
108,995
NC Deaths
1746
Currently Hospitalized
1182 <- 92% reporting (was 1188 at 94% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,550,297

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
931 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
244 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

571 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1175 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

291Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-23)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 156
Resident Care 114 -> 95
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1749* deaths

2102 positive cases over 25654 new tests. 8.2% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/24
7/23(3), 7/22(9), 7/21(3), 7/18(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/15, 7/8, 7/2, 6/28, 6/25
4 deaths moved from date of death missing to chart.
1 additional death added that I can't account for, but it is what it is.

A lot of Resident Care facilities off the outbreak list today.

Still reviewing county data

Lag looks to be tightening. For the last few days things have been mostly complete at 7 days back.

It looks like those county cases that were not assigned yesterday were assigned today. County data is a +143 over reported cases vs the -145 yesterday.

---

7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
111,092
NC Deaths
1778
Currently Hospitalized
1168 <- 95% reporting (was 1182 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
944 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
247 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

587 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
1191 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 156 -> 161
Resident Care 95 -> 96
Correctional 25 -> 26
Other 15 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1778* deaths

2094 positive cases over 28745 new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta 28745, but DHHS claims 25417 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/25 - NET 32 Deaths
7/24(5), 7/23(4), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/12, 7/10(2), 7/8, 7/6, 6/18, 5/31, 5/13

3 Deaths Added to DoD Missing.

1 Death REMOVED from 5/13

DoD was a tough one today. Lots of data and lag to do manually, but I got to 32.

Hospitalizations down slight. Decrease in case pattern holding.

Still downloading report data.

---

7/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
112,713
NC Deaths
1785
Currently Hospitalized
1170 <- 85% reporting (was 1168 at 95% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,613,385

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
248 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

590 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
1195 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 161 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1803* deaths

1621 positive cases over 34343 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta 34343, but DHHS claims 30619 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/26 = 7
7/25, 7/23(2), 7/21, 7/8(2), and 1 Missing Date of Death

Reviewing county data.

3 of the 7 deaths were reported out of Wake.

Case trends seem to be going in the right direction.

DHHS is still going back and retroactively changing hospitalizations numbers to values other than what they reported on that day.

My only logic for hospitalizations (as cases have been declining for 3 weeks now) is that hospitals have allotted space for COVID and are filling it because it is available. Hospitalizations should be declining based on case data.

---

7/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
114,338
NC Deaths
1790
Currently Hospitalized
1169 <- 86% reporting (was 1170 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,635,476

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
251 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

592 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1198 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 16 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1813* deaths

1625 positive cases over 22091 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/27 = 5
7/26, 7/25(4)

DHHS hasn't posted downloadable data, so will have to wait on county data.

Declining statewide case trend holding.

Wayland said:

---

Not "Go away" but we all know how these statements get interpreted.

"Widespread wearing of masks could get COVID-19 under control within 4-8 weeks, CDC director says"

https://fox6now.com/2020/07/15/widespread-wearing-of-masks-could-get-covid-19-under-control-within-4-8-weeks-cdc-director-says/

---

That's the headline, though, which is misleading as usual.

He clearly means "along with the other recommendations", especially if you read the source article.

And the Surgeon General is in that article, too:

""So, while we're seeing cases rise, we can see cases go down just as quickly if the American people will do the things that we know slow the spread of this disease, including wearing a face covering," Adams said."

"In March, Adams told CBS's Face the Nation that masks do not work for the general public in preventing them from getting coronavirus, sending a mixed message to the public.
Adams responded to his previous statements, saying, "We've learned more about asymptomatic spread. Up to 50 percent of people who can spread this disease, spread it without having symptoms. And that's why the American people need to know that science is about giving the best recommendations you can."
Now, Adams wants people in America to know that it is important to wear a face covering."

Wayland said:

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Mormad said:

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I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away.

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You would be surprised. People have been frightened hard so they cling to this message because that is what the media and government are preaching. Over simplifying a complex issue.

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Yep. That's not unique to libs and corona.

Billions of humans cling to simple messages all the time because they can't, or don't want to, contemplate the complex or overwhelming or un-knowable.

The growth of religion in developing/poor nations while it shrinks in the first world, and the continued popularity of prosperity gospel are two examples that cut across party lines.

Simplicity gives humans a short to-do list for "success," even more important when you're overwhelmed or trying to dig out of a hard circumstance.

Life is full of details and nuances and shades of gray that most people choose to ignore because ignoring nuance makes their lives and their world simpler.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

---

7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

---

7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

---

7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15

---

7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.

---

7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.

---

7/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
105,001
NC Deaths
1698
Currently Hospitalized
1137 <- 90% reporting (was 1179 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,491,820

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
915 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
231 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

552 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1146 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 150 -> 154
Resident Care 108 -> 110
Correctional 24 -> 27
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1703* deaths

2140 positive cases over 32823 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 32,823, but DHHS says 31,815

Dates of Death Reported 7/22
7/21, 7/20(8), 7/19(3), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/15, 7/14(4), 7/13(2), 6/28(2), 1 DHHS Missing Date = 29
1 I didn't find a date for. Double checking to see if I missed it.

County Deaths:
Brunswick, Burke(2), Cumberland, Gaston(2), Harnett, Hoke, Iredell(2), Meck(2), Montgomery, Moore(4), Nash(3), Pender, Randolph, Richmond, Union, Wake(6)

EDIT: RE HOSPITALIZATIONS. It looks like New Hanover Regional Medical Center DID NOT REPORT today. They account for 80%+ of hospitalized patients in SHPR so their ~50 missing patients is significant.

---

7/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
106,893
NC Deaths
1726
Currently Hospitalized
1188 <- 94% reporting (was 1137 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,524,643

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
929 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
235 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

562 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1164 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

314 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 154 -> 160
Resident Care 110 -> 114
Correctional 27 -> 26
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1734* deaths

1892 positive cases over 31855 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 31,855, but DHHS says 30,430

Dates of Death Reported 7/23 - LAG DAY
7/22(3), 7/21(3), 7/20(3), 7/19(1), 7/18(1), 7/16(2), 7/15, 7/14(2), 7/12, 7/10, 7/9, 7/8, 6/30(2), 6/26, 6/11, 5/29(2), 5/17, and 1 missing date

It looks like they adjusted yesterday hospitalizations to be 1188 to match today and a new high. Still only 9 higher than 1 week ago.

Case trends still holding in decline as of 9 day lag window.

Still reviewing county data.
County Deaths
5 for Duplin
4 for Pitt
no other county more than 2.
There are your likely culprits for the lag.

Another oddity with county data. County reported cases today only add up to 1747. There are 145 cases that don't have an assignment. The last time that happened with that kind of difference came on the announcement of the extension of Phase 2.

---

7/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
108,995
NC Deaths
1746
Currently Hospitalized
1182 <- 92% reporting (was 1188 at 94% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,550,297

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
931 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
244 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

571 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1175 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

291Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-23)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 156
Resident Care 114 -> 95
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1749* deaths

2102 positive cases over 25654 new tests. 8.2% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/24
7/23(3), 7/22(9), 7/21(3), 7/18(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/15, 7/8, 7/2, 6/28, 6/25
4 deaths moved from date of death missing to chart.
1 additional death added that I can't account for, but it is what it is.

A lot of Resident Care facilities off the outbreak list today.

Still reviewing county data

Lag looks to be tightening. For the last few days things have been mostly complete at 7 days back.

It looks like those county cases that were not assigned yesterday were assigned today. County data is a +143 over reported cases vs the -145 yesterday.

---

7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
111,092
NC Deaths
1778
Currently Hospitalized
1168 <- 95% reporting (was 1182 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
944 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
247 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

587 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
1191 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 156 -> 161
Resident Care 95 -> 96
Correctional 25 -> 26
Other 15 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1778* deaths

2094 positive cases over 28745 new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta 28745, but DHHS claims 25417 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/25 - NET 32 Deaths
7/24(5), 7/23(4), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/12, 7/10(2), 7/8, 7/6, 6/18, 5/31, 5/13

3 Deaths Added to DoD Missing.

1 Death REMOVED from 5/13

DoD was a tough one today. Lots of data and lag to do manually, but I got to 32.

Hospitalizations down slight. Decrease in case pattern holding.

Still downloading report data.

---

7/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
112,713
NC Deaths
1785
Currently Hospitalized
1170 <- 85% reporting (was 1168 at 95% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,613,385

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
248 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

590 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
1195 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 161 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1803* deaths

1621 positive cases over 34343 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta 34343, but DHHS claims 30619 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/26 = 7
7/25, 7/23(2), 7/21, 7/8(2), and 1 Missing Date of Death

Reviewing county data.

3 of the 7 deaths were reported out of Wake.

Case trends seem to be going in the right direction.

DHHS is still going back and retroactively changing hospitalizations numbers to values other than what they reported on that day.

My only logic for hospitalizations (as cases have been declining for 3 weeks now) is that hospitals have allotted space for COVID and are filling it because it is available. Hospitalizations should be declining based on case data.

---

7/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
114,338
NC Deaths
1790
Currently Hospitalized
1169 <- 86% reporting (was 1170 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,635,476

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
251 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

592 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1198 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 16 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1813* deaths

1625 positive cases over 22091 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/27 = 5
7/26, 7/25(4)

DHHS hasn't posted downloadable data, so will have to wait on county data.

Declining statewide case trend holding.

---

Looks like someone found an outbreak in Robeson testing. 218 positive cases collected on 7/22 (145 of them reported today). One of the main reasons case reporting isn't even lower today.

Pacfanweb said:

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packgrad said:

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First it's masks. Then it's chicken wings aren't an acceptable food to sell during the pandemic. The it's you can't sit and eat at bars or countertops.

Just wear the masks, don't eat chicken wings, or sit at bars or counter tops! It's not that hard.

I know the sarcasm is heavy and for that I apologize. I am starting to question how much they are trying to get away with now though.

---

I do as well, but remember...this is Trump's CDC that recommends masks. Initially they didn't, now as more information comes to light, they do.

One huge problem with the country in general is that some folks think you should stake out your position and hold it forever....regardless if you realize you were wrong and you should change....by god, you can't flip-flop. So you get folks (even me) that post the old CDC (or was it Surgeon General?) tweet about how the general public shouldn't wear masks from back in March or April.

As the facts change, so should your opinion.

---

It should for intelligent people. The # of people who cling to comments made in the weeks immediately after the outbreak as if they are unwavering gospel is scary.

My social media timelines have been plastered with headlines reading just that, wear the mask and it will go away, don't wear a mask and you kill someone or yourself. Do the actual articles say that? No, as you pointed out they don't, but we all know that doesn't matter. Whatever the headline is, that's what people believe, and the news knows this and stories are structured that way for a reason. The general public is stupid, and you have to dumb down things, I get that. But the rhetoric from both sides is dangerous when dealing with a deadly virus. I would have hoped when this started that everyone, leaders, media, etc. would have played it down the middle, but it's an election year and therefore that hasn't happened. Quite frankly, I have a heavy deal of scepticism for everything that comes out, and everything that gets recommended, because it is all clearly political, or clearly manipulated by politics. Science is science, numbers are numbers, but it is our duty scientifically to continue to question them.

There have been 2 statements made here I think deserve more discussion:

1. Masks may help with incremental improvement.

2. The virus is gonna virus

This makes me ask a few questions because I believe both statements are absolutely true.

What are the things that we have everyday access to right now that help incrementally with this virus?

If a virus is gonna virus, would that argue FOR continued responsible mask use? If not, why?

If masks don't make a difference, how and why?

Mormad said:

---

There have been 2 statements made here I think deserve more discussion:

1. Masks may help with incremental improvement.

2. The virus is gonna virus

This makes me ask a few questions because I believe both statements are absolutely true.

What are the things that we have everyday access to right now that help incrementally with this virus?

If a virus is gonna virus, would that argue FOR continued responsible mask use? If not, why?

If masks don't make a difference, how and why?

---

I won't accept masks don't make a difference until someone can explain to me how Asia, Europe, and Canada all have managed to have continually downwards trending infection rates. All 3 have reportedly (unless you disbelieve every single thing you read) been much more committed to wearing masks and social distancing --- though Asia in particular has many cities much more crowded than all US cities.

**And I get that it is the combo of masks, social distancing, and hygiene.....but no one is debating the last two, and those markets all embraced the first one from what we've seen.

acslater1344 said:

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TheStorm said:

---

Decided to take a quick look at CNN.com yesterday morning just for the hell of it and their lead story was "experts" calling for another nationwide shutdown. Go figure.

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Just checked out Fox News... apparently there's a civil war in Portland and the nation recovered from coronavirus weeks ago!

---

I didn't get that impression whatsoever after looking myself. Didn't say anything relatively close to that in fact. My post above was from one of your sites Top 2 image panel headlines from that day.

Packchem91 said:

---

Mormad said:

---

There have been 2 statements made here I think deserve more discussion:

1. Masks may help with incremental improvement.

2. The virus is gonna virus

This makes me ask a few questions because I believe both statements are absolutely true.

What are the things that we have everyday access to right now that help incrementally with this virus?

If a virus is gonna virus, would that argue FOR continued responsible mask use? If not, why?

If masks don't make a difference, how and why?

---

I won't accept masks don't make a difference until someone can explain to me how Asia, Europe, and Canada all have managed to have continually downwards trending infection rates. All 3 have reportedly (unless you disbelieve every single thing you read) been much more committed to wearing masks and social distancing --- though Asia in particular has many cities much more crowded than all US cities.

**And I get that it is the combo of masks, social distancing, and hygiene.....but no one is debating the last two, and those markets all embraced the first one from what we've seen.

---

Canada, or at least the province of British Columbia, hasn't been committed strictly to mask wearing at all. They are also doing better then the rest of Canada. I'm not advocating for or against mask and I'm sure you will tell me I don't know what I'm talking about because "every single thing you read" says different. Before you take that line about my comment, I'm actually living it as I type this so what is read and what is reality, at least for where I am, isn't the same

Packchem91 said:

---

Mormad said:

---

There have been 2 statements made here I think deserve more discussion:

1. Masks may help with incremental improvement.

2. The virus is gonna virus

This makes me ask a few questions because I believe both statements are absolutely true.

What are the things that we have everyday access to right now that help incrementally with this virus?

If a virus is gonna virus, would that argue FOR continued responsible mask use? If not, why?

If masks don't make a difference, how and why?

---

I won't accept masks don't make a difference until someone can explain to me how Asia, Europe, and Canada all have managed to have continually downwards trending infection rates. All 3 have reportedly (unless you disbelieve every single thing you read) been much more committed to wearing masks and social distancing --- though Asia in particular has many cities much more crowded than all US cities.

**And I get that it is the combo of masks, social distancing, and hygiene.....but no one is debating the last two, and those markets all embraced the first one from what we've seen.

---

Perhaps you're not reading enough then.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-26/face-mask-photo-op-adds-to-bewilderment-over-non-use-in-denmark

" Denmark stands out for its fast and effective response to the virus, leaving it with a death rate that's roughly a fifth that in neighboring Sweden. But Danes aren't required to wear face masks, and local authorities generally don't recommend them."


" Henning Bundgaard, chief physician at Denmark's Rigshospitalet and a professor in cardiology, is finalizing a study that explores how effective face masks are outside hospitals in halting the spread of the virus. He says research conducted before the pandemic hit isn't conclusive.


"All these countries recommending face masks haven't made their decisions based on new studies," Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen."

packgrad said:

---

Pacfanweb said:

---

packgrad said:

---

First it's masks. Then it's chicken wings aren't an acceptable food to sell during the pandemic. The it's you can't sit and eat at bars or countertops.

Just wear the masks, don't eat chicken wings, or sit at bars or counter tops! It's not that hard.

I know the sarcasm is heavy and for that I apologize. I am starting to question how much they are trying to get away with now though.

---

I do as well, but remember...this is Trump's CDC that recommends masks. Initially they didn't, now as more information comes to light, they do.

One huge problem with the country in general is that some folks think you should stake out your position and hold it forever....regardless if you realize you were wrong and you should change....by god, you can't flip-flop. So you get folks (even me) that post the old CDC (or was it Surgeon General?) tweet about how the general public shouldn't wear masks from back in March or April.

As the facts change, so should your opinion.

---

I don't think facts have changed about masks though. Opinions have. Fwiw, I wear my mask everywhere it is required. I just think the virus is going to virus. Masks aren't going to change that. The curve has been flattened. At this point, in NC, I think it's just virtue signaling all of the incessant commentary about mask wearing.

---

Oh, there's definitely plenty of that going on as well.

As I said before, the truth is somewhere in the middle of all the conflicting info.

Pacfanweb said:

---

packgrad said:

---

Pacfanweb said:

---

packgrad said:

---

First it's masks. Then it's chicken wings aren't an acceptable food to sell during the pandemic. The it's you can't sit and eat at bars or countertops.

Just wear the masks, don't eat chicken wings, or sit at bars or counter tops! It's not that hard.

I know the sarcasm is heavy and for that I apologize. I am starting to question how much they are trying to get away with now though.

---

I do as well, but remember...this is Trump's CDC that recommends masks. Initially they didn't, now as more information comes to light, they do.

One huge problem with the country in general is that some folks think you should stake out your position and hold it forever....regardless if you realize you were wrong and you should change....by god, you can't flip-flop. So you get folks (even me) that post the old CDC (or was it Surgeon General?) tweet about how the general public shouldn't wear masks from back in March or April.

As the facts change, so should your opinion.

---

I don't think facts have changed about masks though. Opinions have. Fwiw, I wear my mask everywhere it is required. I just think the virus is going to virus. Masks aren't going to change that. The curve has been flattened. At this point, in NC, I think it's just virtue signaling all of the incessant commentary about mask wearing.

---

Oh, there's definitely plenty of that going on as well.

As I said before, the truth is somewhere in the middle of all the conflicting info.

---

Agreed.

Pacfanweb said:

---

Mormad said:

---

There have been 2 statements made here I think deserve more discussion:

1. Masks may help with incremental improvement.

2. The virus is gonna virus

This makes me ask a few questions because I believe both statements are absolutely true.

What are the things that we have everyday access to right now that help incrementally with this virus?

If a virus is gonna virus, would that argue FOR continued responsible mask use? If not, why?

If masks don't make a difference, how and why?

---

Yes, the virus is gonna virus. Undisputed.

Yes, masks may help. More info that they do than there is that they don't.

My thing is this: If the "wear a mask" folks are totally wrong and they don't help at all....then still, what's the harm? So they required you to wear one for a few months. Big deal.

But if they're right....and again, there's more out there saying they help than not.....is that not worth it?

---

Totally agree

There are very few really good studies out there. You'll be able to poke gaping holes in this Danish one. First and foremost, mask use outside the hospital is very different than mask use within. So it will be inherently less effective. The first way is the simple way... Households where there's very little mask use and high transmission rates. Not too hard to know what's coming in this study. Doesn't mean masking in America, if done correctly and responsibly, isn't the right thing for us when our case load and personal actions are quite different. Might make me wanna move there tho.

You're right I think. But we know that a few are responsible for infecting many (R is what? 3.7 or something). So it only takes a few not being socially responsible to spread this virus effectively.

Packchem91 said:

---

Pacfanweb said:

---

Wayland said:

---

Not "Go away" but we all know how these statements get interpreted.

"Widespread wearing of masks could get COVID-19 under control within 4-8 weeks, CDC director says"

https://fox6now.com/2020/07/15/widespread-wearing-of-masks-could-get-covid-19-under-control-within-4-8-weeks-cdc-director-says/

---

That's the headline, though, which is misleading as usual.

He clearly means "along with the other recommendations", especially if you read the source article.

And the Surgeon General is in that article, too:

""So, while we're seeing cases rise, we can see cases go down just as quickly if the American people will do the things that we know slow the spread of this disease, including wearing a face covering," Adams said."

"In March, Adams told CBS's Face the Nation that masks do not work for the general public in preventing them from getting coronavirus, sending a mixed message to the public.
Adams responded to his previous statements, saying, "We've learned more about asymptomatic spread. Up to 50 percent of people who can spread this disease, spread it without having symptoms. And that's why the American people need to know that science is about giving the best recommendations you can."
Now, Adams wants people in America to know that it is important to wear a face covering."

---

Pacfan is on a roll today -- and showing why this country is where it is (in general, beyond corona) ---- people read the headline, which is meant simply to get your attention, even if misleading, instead of the nuance within the story. So polarizing.

My favorite item regarding Surgeon General Adams was when he sent a very tailored message to the black community, using terms agreed upon by the NAACP, to be mindful about masks, social distancing, etc....and the black PBS reporter attacked him for singling out black people.
Nevermind statistics show they are more susceptible due to generally poorer health, and that because BLM, it would seem appropriate to call out things to demonstrate that from a health prevention perspective...but, don't let someone from the wrong party do it....

---

News media wants everything condensed down to sound bytes today. They can sit there and frame the story however they want it, and then hit you with an out-of-context sound byte....or a headline like the one above.

They know that most people just scan the headlines and form opinions from that. I can't tell you how many stories I've seen over the years where the headline implies one thing, and the actual story or quote in the article says completely different.

Mormad said:

---

There are very few really good studies out there. You'll be able to poke gaping holes in this Danish one. First and foremost, mask use outside the hospital is very different than mask use within. So it will be inherently less effective. The first way is the simple way... Households where there's very little mask use and high transmission rates. Not too hard to know what's coming in this study. Doesn't mean masking in America, if done correctly and responsibly, isn't the right thing for us when our case load and personal actions are quite different. Might make me wanna move there tho.

---

You made me think of something related to this:

I've seen folks (anti-mask, "virus is just the flu" types) claim "The USA is different from all those countries, so we shouldn't be doing the same thing because it won't work here"

And then the exact same folks will say "But Denmark didn't use masks, why should we?", while ignoring the glaring differences in how their people acted on their CDC's advice compared to us here.

Same ones that say "masks don't work" and then turn around and say "you could run low on oxygen if you use a mask".....well hell, that makes zero sense.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/53108405?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15958805925283&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2F53108405

Well you (Not you, you. The generic you) can't say masks work because Europe, or Denmark, have lower cases. It goes both ways. Packchem says everything you read tells you that Europe has been much more committed to masks. Denmark and Sweden haven't been more committed to masks and aren't now.

Mormad is poking holes in a study that hasn't even been released because it might possibly disagree with him. Fwiw I don't mean these as personal attacks. It's just we are supposed to universally accept mask wearing because it COULD help but immediately discount a study that has not yet been released because they may come up with conclusions different than what we've decided on.

Most people are wearing masks. Again, I don't get the shouting at the rooftops about mask wearing. People don't have to believe too. "Could" isn't "will."

NC recovered more cases than it added this week.

92302-78707=13595 new recoveries

1625 + 1621 + 2097 + 2101 + 1892 + 2140 + 1815 = 13291 new reported cases

https://files.nc.gov/covid/documents/dashboard/Weekly-COVID19-Patients-Presumed-to-be-Recovered.pdf

10 4. Appreciate your explanation. I have started the first link fwiw. Life got in the way, but I intend to finish up bedtime tonight.