Coronavirus

2,791,452 Views | 20375 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Werewolf
packgrad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ncsualum05 • 1:19p, 7/24/20
ncsualum05 said:
Civilized said:
But opening safely, experts agree, isn't just about the adjustments a school makes. It's also about how much virus is circulating in the community, which affects the likelihood that students and staff will bring COVID-19 into their classrooms.

"Outbreaks in schools are inevitable," says Otto Helve, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. "But there is good news." So far, with some changes to schools' daily routines, he says, the benefits of attending school seem to outweigh the risksat least where community infection rates are low and officials are standing by to identify and isolate cases and close contacts."

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks

How much virus is circulating in American communities relative to Europe, South Africa, and most of Southeast Asia?

How do our community infection rates currently compare to those countries that have successfully reopened their schools?

Does the US have the current capability to isolate cases and close contacts when outbreaks occur in schools?
It depends on the school system or county. It needs to be at a localized level. Damn people have lost all common sense with this stuff. Not saying you have personally but nothing should be decided at a statewide level or nationwide level. Set general guidelines and let jurisdictions figure this out. Of course everyone is so panicked right now that they've all been pressured to do the same thing. It's .... STUPID.

We are still treating the virus the same way we did in March. Why? Someone testing positive does not mean you have to shut down everything- not in a school, sports team, or anything else. Isolate the sick... test if you were around them and so on. If you have an outbreak then deal with it. We have no courage anymore in leadership.


Simplistic only about football take but..... People like to dog out Alabama but they did just that. Alabama HSAA basically says everything is a go. Football, fans, bands, etc and the local areas can adjust as they need. I 100% support this philosophy. Let the local areas adjust as they decide.
Reply Quote
Daviewolf83
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:47p, 7/24/20
Staff
Below are the charts showing the distribution of cases announced today by the date the specimen was taken and the deaths by the actual date of death for the deaths announced today. The cases by specimen date do not include as much of a lag in reporting as they did yesterday and previous days.

I have also included two charts that show the change in the percentages by age for both cases and deaths. These charts are by month and from them you can see cases are definitely increasing for the younger age groups and decreasing for the older age groups. For deaths, the the percentage of people dying in the oldest age group is declining and the 50-64 year old age group has increased over time.










Reply Quote Next Staff
Civilized
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wilmwolf • 1:51p, 7/24/20
wilmwolf80 said:
I don't know why we continue to compare our numbers country wide to other countries with much smaller, less diverse populations. It would be better to compare individual states to other countries if similar size, density, etc. Decisions about reopening school in NC shouldn't have anything to do with nationwide numbers. These decisions should be based on what is happening on the ground in individual areas and districts. In areas where the community spread is high, make one decision, and a different one in areas where it is low, and adjust accordingly as situations change. Think outside the damn box.

Agree with this very much.

County-by-county may be impractical given how many residents have contacts with adjacent counties but certainly state-by-state if not.

There's no way to have a federal policy on reopening schools. It has to be more local.
Reply Quote
Civilized
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ncsualum05 • 1:52p, 7/24/20
ncsualum05 said:
It depends on the school system or county. It needs to be at a localized level. Damn people have lost all common sense with this stuff. Not saying you have personally but nothing should be decided at a statewide level or nationwide level. Set general guidelines and let jurisdictions figure this out. Of course everyone is so panicked right now that they've all been pressured to do the same thing. It's .... STUPID.

We are still treating the virus the same way we did in March. Why? Someone testing positive does not mean you have to shut down everything- not in a school, sports team, or anything else. Isolate the sick... test if you were around them and so on. If you have an outbreak then deal with it. We have no courage anymore in leadership.

I agree.
Reply Quote
Daviewolf83
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 2:03p, 7/24/20
Staff
Wayland said:
Just to show the a visual on how lag has been pulling forward. I did a graph the other day of this Tuesday (7/21) vs last Tuesday (7/14) and you could see a similar pattern in case reporting.



I noticed the last few days that cases weren't populating with any great number in beyond current date -7. Take a look charting today (7/24) vs last Friday (7/17). You can see last week that the daily reporting was still pulling heavily from the late weekdays of the previous week. The last few days this week, the lag hasn't been extending past 7 days. Either we are catching up... or there is a hidden wave somewhere.



It looks like we are getting Monday's data a lot quicker.
You may have noticed, but the total hospitalized each day is being updated for previous days. I am not sure why they are making these post-dated updates.

Reply Quote Next Staff
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Daviewolf83 • 2:13p, 7/24/20
They need to stop retroactively adjusting numbers without being CRYSTAL clear on when and why changes are made.

Report it cleanly the first time, or identify the flaws. The quiet corrections are sketch.
Reply Quote
1
Daviewolf83
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 2:24p, 7/24/20
Staff
Wayland said:
They need to stop retroactively adjusting numbers without being CRYSTAL clear on when and why changes are made.

Report it cleanly the first time, or identify the flaws. The quiet corrections are sketch.
I totally agree. I was trained to always provide an explanation whenever adjustments to previously published numbers are made. They should be providing detail every time the numbers are adjusted and not doing so it lazy on the part of the people providing the data.
Reply Quote Next Staff
Daviewolf83
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:35p, 7/24/20
Staff
Updates are also being made to the total number of ICU patients on a daily basis. Here's a graph showing the original number I recorded and the adjusted number. What I can not tell is when the adjustments were made. I have not looked at the daily admitted and the daily suspected admitted numbers yet, but I would not be surprised if they have been adjusted as well.

Reply Quote Next Staff
TheStorm
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Civilized • 3:03p, 7/24/20
Civilized said:
Wayland said:
Why policy needs to be reviewed. Especially if things like this hold up...

From the paper: "Public health measures intended to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will also prevent the spread of and, consequently, maintenance of herd immunity to HCoVs, particularly in children."

Also illustrates how much of a Petri dish schools are.
Yeah. They need to be CANCELLED as well. Lowest risk.
Reply Quote
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:57a, 7/25/20
Another study about why herd immunity why 60%+ might be applicable to random vaccination and why 20% is being found in natural infection. To help people break from that one 60-80% that was parroted 5 months ago.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

Quote:
"In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, HITs are given by a simple formula (1-1??*/) which, in the case of SARS-CoV-2, suggests that 60-80% of randomly chosen subjects of the population would need be immunized to halt spread considering estimates of ??*between 2.5 and 5. This formula does not apply to infection-induced immunity because natural infection does not occur at random. Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become immune, providing greater community protection than random vaccination. In our model, the HIT declines sharply when coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable populations."
Reply Quote
1 edit
Civilized
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 9:48a, 7/25/20
That's really interesting. Hadn't considered that.

The virus is brutally efficient with infecting at-risk populations when there's no natural immunity.

Vaccinations are less efficient. While somewhat self-selecting since at-risk populations like older folks know they are susceptible and therefore are more likely to get vaccinated than the average American, it's still less efficient than natural infection.

So is this saying that natural herd immunity can be achieved if only 20% are immune?

Pre-vaccine, at-risk populations also self select and remove themselves from circulation to avoid infection. One big question is, at what point with natural antibodies should older folks or folks with significant underlying health conditions feel comfortable reengaging in their normal activities?
Reply Quote
1 edit
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 1:08p, 7/25/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.
7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.
7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15
7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.
7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.
7/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
105,001
NC Deaths
1698
Currently Hospitalized
1137 <- 90% reporting (was 1179 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,491,820

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
915 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
231 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

552 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1146 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 150 -> 154
Resident Care 108 -> 110
Correctional 24 -> 27
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1703* deaths

2140 positive cases over 32823 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 32,823, but DHHS says 31,815

Dates of Death Reported 7/22
7/21, 7/20(8), 7/19(3), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/15, 7/14(4), 7/13(2), 6/28(2), 1 DHHS Missing Date = 29
1 I didn't find a date for. Double checking to see if I missed it.

County Deaths:
Brunswick, Burke(2), Cumberland, Gaston(2), Harnett, Hoke, Iredell(2), Meck(2), Montgomery, Moore(4), Nash(3), Pender, Randolph, Richmond, Union, Wake(6)

EDIT: RE HOSPITALIZATIONS. It looks like New Hanover Regional Medical Center DID NOT REPORT today. They account for 80%+ of hospitalized patients in SHPR so their ~50 missing patients is significant.
7/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
106,893
NC Deaths
1726
Currently Hospitalized
1188 <- 94% reporting (was 1137 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,524,643

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
929 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
235 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

562 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1164 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

314 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 154 -> 160
Resident Care 110 -> 114
Correctional 27 -> 26
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1734* deaths

1892 positive cases over 31855 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 31,855, but DHHS says 30,430

Dates of Death Reported 7/23 - LAG DAY
7/22(3), 7/21(3), 7/20(3), 7/19(1), 7/18(1), 7/16(2), 7/15, 7/14(2), 7/12, 7/10, 7/9, 7/8, 6/30(2), 6/26, 6/11, 5/29(2), 5/17, and 1 missing date

It looks like they adjusted yesterday hospitalizations to be 1188 to match today and a new high. Still only 9 higher than 1 week ago.

Case trends still holding in decline as of 9 day lag window.

Still reviewing county data.
County Deaths
5 for Duplin
4 for Pitt
no other county more than 2.
There are your likely culprits for the lag.

Another oddity with county data. County reported cases today only add up to 1747. There are 145 cases that don't have an assignment. The last time that happened with that kind of difference came on the announcement of the extension of Phase 2.
7/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
108,995
NC Deaths
1746
Currently Hospitalized
1182 <- 92% reporting (was 1188 at 94% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,550,297

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
931 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
244 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

571 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1175 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

291Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-23)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 156
Resident Care 114 -> 95
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1749* deaths

2102 positive cases over 25654 new tests. 8.2% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/24
7/23(3), 7/22(9), 7/21(3), 7/18(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/15, 7/8, 7/2, 6/28, 6/25
4 deaths moved from date of death missing to chart.
1 additional death added that I can't account for, but it is what it is.

A lot of Resident Care facilities off the outbreak list today.

Still reviewing county data

Lag looks to be tightening. For the last few days things have been mostly complete at 7 days back.

It looks like those county cases that were not assigned yesterday were assigned today. County data is a +143 over reported cases vs the -145 yesterday.
7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
111,092
NC Deaths
1778
Currently Hospitalized
1168 <- 95% reporting (was 1182 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
944 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
247 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

587 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
1191 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 156 -> 161
Resident Care 95 -> 96
Correctional 25 -> 26
Other 15 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1778* deaths

2094 positive cases over 28745 new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta 28745, but DHHS claims 25417 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/25 - NET 32 Deaths
7/24(5), 7/23(4), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/12, 7/10(2), 7/8, 7/6, 6/18, 5/31, 5/13

3 Deaths Added to DoD Missing.

1 Death REMOVED from 5/13

DoD was a tough one today. Lots of data and lag to do manually, but I got to 32.

Hospitalizations down slight. Decrease in case pattern holding.

Still downloading report data.
Reply Quote
1 edit
TheStorm
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:09p, 7/25/20
So for the last three (3) days we have averaged 6.983% Confirmed Cases / Completed Tests

(6091 New Confirmed Cases / 87,222 New Completed Tests)

Looks familiar for some reason...
Reply Quote
wilmwolf
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:30a, 7/26/20
In my weekly, unscientific, completely anecdotal, mask wearing survey, there were two people in my teeter not wearing a mask in my twenty or so minutes in the store. One was a middle aged man who appeared to be Hispanic, the other an older Caucasian woman. I did not ask them about their political party affiliation or socioeconomic status.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Reply Quote
1 edit
RunsWithWolves26
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wilmwolf • 11:44a, 7/26/20
wilmwolf80 said:
In my weekly, unscientific, completely anecdotal, mask wearing survey, there were two people in my teeter not wearing a mask in my twenty or so minutes in the store. One was a middle aged man who appeared to be Hispanic, the other an older Caucasian woman. I did not ask them about their political party affiliation or socioeconomic status.


The fact that you didn't ask them those questions, renders your study pointless. Now, go find some random polling company that proves you wrong and yell about it on here!
Reply Quote
3
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wilmwolf • 11:47a, 7/26/20
wilmwolf80 said:
In my weekly, unscientific, completely anecdotal, mask wearing survey, there were two people in my teeter not wearing a mask in my twenty or so minutes in the store. One was a middle aged man who appeared to be Hispanic, the other an older Caucasian woman. I did not ask them about their political party affiliation or socioeconomic status.
Despite my own question of the efficacy of masks (and recent German outbreaks studies in masked scenarios which I can get to later). I wear them in the appropriate settings and don't try and be adversarial about it.

But I do think that proper study needs to be done.

And I remain concerned about the false promise and hopes that government and media are placing on masks. I had a post from a NE friend on facebook today. "Please wear your mask, I want this to end soon." And it made me sad that the messaging is getting so focused that the belief is that if people just wear masks in stores this all goes away. It isn't that simple, and giving people the false hope that public masking alone will make it all disappear is wrong (especially since there is at least some uncertainty).

Masking MAY help reduce the spread. That should be the message, not that it is some kind of magic bullet it isn't.

I'll dig up the study on the german meat processing plant outbreak, where everyone was basically stationary and masked, and people were infected up to 8 meters (not feet... METERS) away. I get that this is an idealized environment with the cool circulating air, but it helps drive home while there may be some benefit... (which we actually should be studying to confrim)... mask wearing alone is not just going to make it all go away. So please, government and media STOP pretending that it will. Give proper messaging. It MAY help, it COULD REDUCE, but it isn't a CURE.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
wilmwolf
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 11:58a, 7/26/20
I too am very weary of the "wear your mask and this will be over in six weeks" posts I see. I've thought from the beginning that the virus was going to run its natural course one way or another. Various measures may slow the spread, which is good in some ways, but there are also negative consequences as well. By all means, wear a mask when appropriate, just don't mistake it for a cure.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 12:06p, 7/26/20
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.
7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.
7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15
7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.
7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.
7/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
105,001
NC Deaths
1698
Currently Hospitalized
1137 <- 90% reporting (was 1179 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,491,820

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
915 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
231 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

552 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1146 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

304 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
Nursing Homes 150 -> 154
Resident Care 108 -> 110
Correctional 24 -> 27
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1703* deaths

2140 positive cases over 32823 new tests. 6.5% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 32,823, but DHHS says 31,815

Dates of Death Reported 7/22
7/21, 7/20(8), 7/19(3), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/15, 7/14(4), 7/13(2), 6/28(2), 1 DHHS Missing Date = 29
1 I didn't find a date for. Double checking to see if I missed it.

County Deaths:
Brunswick, Burke(2), Cumberland, Gaston(2), Harnett, Hoke, Iredell(2), Meck(2), Montgomery, Moore(4), Nash(3), Pender, Randolph, Richmond, Union, Wake(6)

EDIT: RE HOSPITALIZATIONS. It looks like New Hanover Regional Medical Center DID NOT REPORT today. They account for 80%+ of hospitalized patients in SHPR so their ~50 missing patients is significant.
7/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
106,893
NC Deaths
1726
Currently Hospitalized
1188 <- 94% reporting (was 1137 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,524,643

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
929 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
235 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

562 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1164 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

314 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 154 -> 160
Resident Care 110 -> 114
Correctional 27 -> 26
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1734* deaths

1892 positive cases over 31855 new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 31,855, but DHHS says 30,430

Dates of Death Reported 7/23 - LAG DAY
7/22(3), 7/21(3), 7/20(3), 7/19(1), 7/18(1), 7/16(2), 7/15, 7/14(2), 7/12, 7/10, 7/9, 7/8, 6/30(2), 6/26, 6/11, 5/29(2), 5/17, and 1 missing date

It looks like they adjusted yesterday hospitalizations to be 1188 to match today and a new high. Still only 9 higher than 1 week ago.

Case trends still holding in decline as of 9 day lag window.

Still reviewing county data.
County Deaths
5 for Duplin
4 for Pitt
no other county more than 2.
There are your likely culprits for the lag.

Another oddity with county data. County reported cases today only add up to 1747. There are 145 cases that don't have an assignment. The last time that happened with that kind of difference came on the announcement of the extension of Phase 2.
7/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
108,995
NC Deaths
1746
Currently Hospitalized
1182 <- 92% reporting (was 1188 at 94% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,550,297

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
931 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
244 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

571 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
1175 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

291Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-23)
Nursing Homes 160 -> 156
Resident Care 114 -> 95
Correctional 26 -> 25
Other 14 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1749* deaths

2102 positive cases over 25654 new tests. 8.2% positive rate.


Dates of Death Reported 7/24
7/23(3), 7/22(9), 7/21(3), 7/18(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/15, 7/8, 7/2, 6/28, 6/25
4 deaths moved from date of death missing to chart.
1 additional death added that I can't account for, but it is what it is.

A lot of Resident Care facilities off the outbreak list today.

Still reviewing county data

Lag looks to be tightening. For the last few days things have been mostly complete at 7 days back.

It looks like those county cases that were not assigned yesterday were assigned today. County data is a +143 over reported cases vs the -145 yesterday.
7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
111,092
NC Deaths
1778
Currently Hospitalized
1168 <- 95% reporting (was 1182 at 92% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
944 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
247 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

587 Deaths assumed General Population (+16)
1191 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 156 -> 161
Resident Care 95 -> 96
Correctional 25 -> 26
Other 15 -> 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1778* deaths

2094 positive cases over 28745 new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta 28745, but DHHS claims 25417 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/25 - NET 32 Deaths
7/24(5), 7/23(4), 7/22(4), 7/21(2), 7/20(2), 7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/12, 7/10(2), 7/8, 7/6, 6/18, 5/31, 5/13

3 Deaths Added to DoD Missing.

1 Death REMOVED from 5/13

DoD was a tough one today. Lots of data and lag to do manually, but I got to 32.

Hospitalizations down slight. Decrease in case pattern holding.

Still downloading report data.
7/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
112,713
NC Deaths
1785
Currently Hospitalized
1170 <- 85% reporting (was 1168 at 95% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,579,042

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
947 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
248 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

590 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
1195 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

298 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 161 -> 160
Resident Care 96 -> 96
Correctional 26 -> 26
Other 15 -> 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1803* deaths

1621 positive cases over 34343 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta 34343, but DHHS claims 30619 Completed Tests


Dates of Death Reported 7/26 = 7
7/25, 7/23(2), 7/21, 7/8(2), and 1 Missing Date of Death

Reviewing county data.

3 of the 7 deaths were reported out of Wake.

Case trends seem to be going in the right direction.

DHHS is still going back and retroactively changing hospitalizations numbers to values other than what they reported on that day.

My only logic for hospitalizations (as cases have been declining for 3 weeks now) is that hospitals have allotted space for COVID and are filling it because it is available. Hospitalizations should be declining based on case data.
Reply Quote
1
3 edits
Steve Williams
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 1:50p, 7/26/20
Staff
Wayland said:
wilmwolf80 said:
In my weekly, unscientific, completely anecdotal, mask wearing survey, there were two people in my teeter not wearing a mask in my twenty or so minutes in the store. One was a middle aged man who appeared to be Hispanic, the other an older Caucasian woman. I did not ask them about their political party affiliation or socioeconomic status.
Despite my own question of the efficacy of masks (and recent German outbreaks studies in masked scenarios which I can get to later). I wear them in the appropriate settings and don't try and be adversarial about it.

But I do think that proper study needs to be done.

And I remain concerned about the false promise and hopes that government and media are placing on masks. I had a post from a NE friend on facebook today. "Please wear your mask, I want this to end soon." And it made me sad that the messaging is getting so focused that the belief is that if people just wear masks in stores this all goes away. It isn't that simple, and giving people the false hope that public masking alone will make it all disappear is wrong (especially since there is at least some uncertainty).

Masking MAY help reduce the spread. That should be the message, not that it is some kind of magic bullet it isn't.

I'll dig up the study on the german meat processing plant outbreak, where everyone was basically stationary and masked, and people were infected up to 8 meters (not feet... METERS) away. I get that this is an idealized environment with the cool circulating air, but it helps drive home while there may be some benefit... (which we actually should be studying to confrim)... mask wearing alone is not just going to make it all go away. So please, government and media STOP pretending that it will. Give proper messaging. It MAY help, it COULD REDUCE, but it isn't a CURE.
Really good post. I've seen it repeatedly on social media and it drives me crazy- wear a mask and we can have football, wear a mask and this will end, wear a mask and we'll get back to normal life. The sad thing is many, many people take this at face value and it's disturbing (at least to me). I wear a mask so as not to offend others but definitely don't see a mask as being some magic bullet that ends all this. Personally I'm much more concerned about the teenager working at the grocery store that sneezes on his hand and then stocks the shelves or the middle aged mom that fumbles through three dozen eggs before she completes the dozen she wishes to buy.
Reply Quote Next Staff
packgrad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:03p, 7/26/20
Reply Quote
packgrad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:04p, 7/26/20

Reply Quote
3
TheStorm
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:53a, 7/27/20
Decided to take a quick look at CNN.com yesterday morning just for the hell of it and their lead story was "experts" calling for another nationwide shutdown. Go figure.
Reply Quote
Mormad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:00a, 7/27/20
That Alex Berenson tweet is poor thinking and analysis. We should so easily be able to rip that apart, unless it makes you feel better not to.

I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away. But I can't believe there are those who question masking's ability to reduce spread to some degree by somewhat limiting the amount of virus that escapes your nose and mouth and enters somebody else's. Isn't it sort of common sensical even if you have no ability to read the myriad studies that already exist? There is a great study from 10 yrs ago looking at masks/ materials ability to stop particles of different sizes sent flying at different velocities. There's a recent study from Harvard that's weaker but more common sense. Read it yesterday.

Once again: droplets vs aerosols. Droplets are big, aerosols are small little farts of virus of floating around. Which one do you think causes more cases? Both likely can, but don't you think droplets are much more likely? If you think it's aerosols then quit laughing at people masking in their cars. If somebody sneezes in your face and they have covid, do you think that if you both have on masks worn properly, that the masks will decrease the numbers of droplets that hit your mouth and nose?

Remember, the infectious ability depends on inoculum load, virility, host defense. I think masks reduce the size of the inoculum and therefore reduces the chance you'll get infected.

Studies are hard: who's gonna get sneezed on? which masks are worn? Are they worn correctly? Differences in host defense? And the list goes on and on...
Reply Quote
6
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mormad • 10:54a, 7/27/20
Mormad said:


I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away.
You would be surprised. People have been frightened hard so they cling to this message because that is what the media and government are preaching. Over simplifying a complex issue.

I really am not trying to be over-adversarial about mask wearing. While they may provide an incremental benefit, I think they are being largely oversold as to their greater impact on the pandemic, and people need to realize while there may be some benefit, that masking will not make this just go away.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3654517

Again, while a meat processing plant (so an ideal environment for spread), people were stationary and masked and still caught it anyways within 8 METERS of the index case.

This is probably more representative of how spreading events happen. It isn't walking past someone at the store or the guy walking past you on a greenway sneezing in your face. It is extended indoor time where ill fitted/dirty/non-surgical masks are not going to protect from the aerosolized virus. But ya, if someone is actively coughing, sure there is droplet protection and they probably should be at home right now during a pandemic.
Reply Quote
1
5 edits
packgrad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 11:01a, 7/27/20
Wayland said:
Mormad said:


I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away.
You would be surprised. People have been frightened hard so they cling to this message because that is what the media and government are preaching. Over simplifying a complex issue.


It's been said on this message board.
Reply Quote
1
Pacfanweb
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Wayland • 11:09a, 7/27/20
Wayland said:
Mormad said:


I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away.
You would be surprised. People have been frightened hard so they cling to this message because that is what the media and government are preaching. Over simplifying a complex issue.

I really am not trying to be over-adversarial about mask wearing. While they may provide an incremental benefit, I think they are being largely oversold as to their greater impact on the pandemic, and people need to realize while there may be some benefit, that masking will not make this just go away.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3654517

Again, while a meat processing plant (so an ideal environment for spread), people were stationary and masked and still caught it anyways.
There are a lot of "non sophisticated" folks out there.

Of course masks help. If you sneeze or cough inside a mask, anyone with a lick of sense knows that most of that is going to be caught, even by an el cheapo fabric mask. That's just common sense. A whole lot more than sneezing into your damn elbow, that's for sure.

Now, does it prevent germs floating in the air from getting through? No, of course not, but that doesn't mean that they don't help at all.

Are they a cure all? Nope, but really....the people bucking up on this are the same ones that are crying "conspiracy" every time someone commits suicide, every time the gov't tells us to do ANYTHING, etc. Everything to do with politicians is some kind of plot to advance socialism, they'll tell you.

"First it's masks, next thing is socialism and labor camps...quick, go buy some more ammo!"

It's a damn mask. Other nations have done this for years. It's not a socialist plot to get us used to being told to do things, it's a damn mask. That's it. It's not going to kill you. Wear the damn thing and get over yourselves.
Reply Quote
2
1 edit
RunsWithWolves26
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Pacfanweb • 11:13a, 7/27/20
Actually there have been several verified times that a mask did kill the person wearing it for an extended period of time. Now, that wasn't the el cheapo mask as you call it. It was a cloth mask that prevented the right amount of oxygen to enter the lungs. As for the el cheapo comment. You're better off not wearing a mask if you decide to wear one of those el cheapo mask that you can buy in bulk. Take one of those mask and put it on. Then take a lighter and light it in front of the mask. Blow out through your mouth and let me know what happens to the flame when you do. After you're done, if you think the el cheapo mask is effective, then I can't help you.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Wayland
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Pacfanweb • 11:14a, 7/27/20
Pacfanweb said:
Wayland said:
Mormad said:


I really don't believe there's anyone with any sophistication who believes that masking makes it all go away.
You would be surprised. People have been frightened hard so they cling to this message because that is what the media and government are preaching. Over simplifying a complex issue.

I really am not trying to be over-adversarial about mask wearing. While they may provide an incremental benefit, I think they are being largely oversold as to their greater impact on the pandemic, and people need to realize while there may be some benefit, that masking will not make this just go away.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3654517

Again, while a meat processing plant (so an ideal environment for spread), people were stationary and masked and still caught it anyways.
There are a lot of "non sophisticated" folks out there.

Of course masks help. If you sneeze or cough inside a mask, anyone with a lick of sense knows that most of that is going to be caught, even by an el cheapo fabric mask. That's just common sense. A whole lot more than sneezing into your damn elbow, that's for sure.

Now, does it prevent germs floating in the air from getting through? No, of course not, but that doesn't mean that they don't help at all.

Are they a cure all? Nope, but really....the people bucking up on this are the same ones that are crying "conspiracy" every time someone commits suicide, every time the gov't tells us to do ANYTHING, etc. Everything to do with politicians is some kind of plot to advance socialism, they'll tell you.

"First it's masks, next thing is socialism and labor camps...quick, go buy some more ammo!"

It's a damn mask. Other nations have done this for years. It's not a socialist plot to get us used to being told to do things, it's a damn mask. That's it. It's not going to kill you. Wear the damn thing and get over yourselves.
I wear a mask. That doesn't mean, I can't bring up questions to their efficacy and my concerns that their incremental impact is being oversold. Why is a reasoned discussion so threatening? We should want to understand fully the impact and value of every measure we are taking, so that we can get through this pandemic (and handle the next pandemic) with minimal damage.

I am concerned because I see sophisticated people HONESTLY believe that masking will cure this. It is a tool to help 'slow' the spread in some circumstances when done correctly.
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
acslater1344
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TheStorm • 11:23a, 7/27/20
TheStorm said:
Decided to take a quick look at CNN.com yesterday morning just for the hell of it and their lead story was "experts" calling for another nationwide shutdown. Go figure.

Just checked out Fox News... apparently there's a civil war in Portland and the nation recovered from coronavirus weeks ago!

LOL.. in all seriousness, though, the fact that the most read media sites both operate in some twisted version of reality is helping rip this country apart. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle.
Reply Quote
4
packgrad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Pacfanweb • 11:31a, 7/27/20
First it's masks. Then it's chicken wings aren't an acceptable food to sell during the pandemic. The it's you can't sit and eat at bars or countertops.

Just wear the masks, don't eat chicken wings, or sit at bars or counter tops! It's not that hard.

I know the sarcasm is heavy and for that I apologize. I am starting to question how much they are trying to get away with now though.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Mormad
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 11:37a, 7/27/20
I disagree. There's a difference between liquid droplets penetrating a mask and air getting blown forcefully thru
Reply Quote
1
wilmwolf
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Pacfanweb • 11:45a, 7/27/20
"
Are they a cure all? Nope, but really....the people bucking up on this are the same ones that are crying "conspiracy" every time someone commits suicide, every time the gov't tells us to do ANYTHING, etc. Everything to do with politicians is some kind of plot to advance socialism, they'll tell you.

"First it's masks, next thing is socialism and labor camps...quick, go buy some more ammo!"

It's a damn mask. Other nations have done this for years. It's not a socialist plot to get us used to being told to do things, it's a damn mask. That's it. It's not going to kill you. Wear the damn thing and get over yourselves. "


This is a dangerously broad brush. I am dubious about many aspects of masking up, but I'm still wearing a mask. I don't think that telling people to wear a mask is a socialist plot, or a conspiracy, or political, or anything else. Plainly, when people wear masks, there is a false sense of security. Social distancing breaks down. Telling people to wear a mask and it will all go away in six weeks is completely misleading. Wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, and good hygiene will SLOW the spread of the virus incrementally, depending on other factors. Spreading "wear a mask or we'll all die" fear around results in people getting pepper spayed in a dog park for not wearing a mask, which is ****ing stupid. By all means, wear a mask, but if there is someone out there not wearing one, just keep your distance and go in living your damn life.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Reply Quote
4
Pacfanweb
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 11:57a, 7/27/20
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Actually there have been several verified times that a mask did kill the person wearing it for an extended period of time. Now, that wasn't the el cheapo mask as you call it. It was a cloth mask that prevented the right amount of oxygen to enter the lungs. As for the el cheapo comment. You're better off not wearing a mask if you decide to wear one of those el cheapo mask that you can buy in bulk. Take one of those mask and put it on. Then take a lighter and light it in front of the mask. Blow out through your mouth and let me know what happens to the flame when you do. After you're done, if you think the el cheapo mask is effective, then I can't help you.
"A little air getting through" =/= "stopping water droplets from a cough or a sneeze".

I haven't seen where anyone has legitimately died from wearing a mask, unless it was from wearing something that shouldn't have been used as a mask in the first place.

The whole "allowing oxygen to enter your lungs" thing....can't have it both ways. If it's preventing oxygen from getting to your lungs, then it's DAMN sure stopping a pretty good amount of germs. But the same folks who claim this also say that masks what you said...."try to blow out a lighter". If you can blow out a lighter, then you're getting plenty of oxygen and have nothing to worry about.
Can't have it both ways.

BTW, you can blow out a lighter through a wash cloth, too...but if you sneeze into it, it's going to catch the majority of what comes out. That's the whole point.
Ever blown your nose into a handkerchief? Same concept. You can blow through it, but it catches the snot.

Nurses and doctors have worn them all day long for years, and they don't die from them.

All this said....I was slow to adopt this, and yeah, it's kind of a pain in the butt. But it's not going to kill anyone and if it helps at all, then good. Do this, sanitize/wash your hands, social distance, and this will go away.
That's how everywhere else has done it.
Reply Quote
2
Packchem91
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to acslater1344 • 11:58a, 7/27/20
acslater1344 said:
TheStorm said:
Decided to take a quick look at CNN.com yesterday morning just for the hell of it and their lead story was "experts" calling for another nationwide shutdown. Go figure.

Just checked out Fox News... apparently there's a civil war in Portland and the nation recovered from coronavirus weeks ago!

LOL.. in all seriousness, though, the fact that the most read media sites both operate in some twisted version of reality is helping rip this country apart. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle.
The best comment that will be uttered on this thread today. I look at both sites, and am amazed (and saddened) at how differently "news" can be told. Both are guilty.

Bonus points for a hilarious response as well!
Reply Quote
1 edit
Pacfanweb
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wilmwolf • 12:01p, 7/27/20
wilmwolf80 said:
"
Are they a cure all? Nope, but really....the people bucking up on this are the same ones that are crying "conspiracy" every time someone commits suicide, every time the gov't tells us to do ANYTHING, etc. Everything to do with politicians is some kind of plot to advance socialism, they'll tell you.

"First it's masks, next thing is socialism and labor camps...quick, go buy some more ammo!"

It's a damn mask. Other nations have done this for years. It's not a socialist plot to get us used to being told to do things, it's a damn mask. That's it. It's not going to kill you. Wear the damn thing and get over yourselves. "


This is a dangerously broad brush. I am dubious about many aspects of masking up, but I'm still wearing a mask. I don't think that telling people to wear a mask is a socialist plot, or a conspiracy, or political, or anything else. Plainly, when people wear masks, there is a false sense of security. Social distancing breaks down. Telling people to wear a mask and it will all go away in six weeks is completely misleading. Wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, and good hygiene will SLOW the spread of the virus incrementally, depending on other factors. Spreading "wear a mask or we'll all die" fear around results in people getting pepper spayed in a dog park for not wearing a mask, which is ****ing stupid. By all means, wear a mask, but if there is someone out there not wearing one, just keep your distance and go in living your damn life.
But you're going to the other extreme. Nobody's telling us that "it will all go away in 6 weeks"...at least, nobody in a position of authority that I'm aware of. Anyone who is, is no better than the folks who think everything's a conspiracy.
So it's not "wear one or we all die" and it's not "don't wear one, it's a plot and they don't help".....it's somewhere in the middle, like it always is.

That said, there are a damn lot of folks just like I described, and many of them are perfectly intelligent and reasonable folks otherwise...engineers, doctors and whatnot. But for whatever reason, have bought into the "must be a sinister motive behind everything" line of thinking.
Reply Quote
2
First Page Last Page
Page 129 of 583 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.