Thanks for putting in graph form. I have notice for a couple of weeks that the percentage from congregate is starting to shift to the general population. I believe this provides evidence of one of the factors driving a decrease in deaths. The cases are shifting to a younger population and away from the older population. This means fewer older, at risk people are becoming infected (as a percentage). Since they have a much higher mortality rate when they become infected, lowering the infection rate should lower overall deaths.Wayland said:
Coronavirus
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This is of course by Date Reported, not Date of Death.
BruceDouble said:
Some people just like to ***** and moan. The Nextdoor app is hilarious sometimes with the stuff people complain about. I either laugh at it or ignore it.
There are some seriously nosey folks on Nextdoor.
I get headlines emailed to me all the time about loud cars, kids doing ding dong ditch, someone pulled in my driveway and turned around, I hear gunshots, (Franklin County, so duh, of course you do), did anybody else see that ambulance? Why did the police have a car pulled on the highway? And on and on.
Got rid of FB after the 2016 election, and I do not miss it one bit. Still have Twitter/Instagram, although both are becoming cesspools. I hate that Twitter still has use for me, otherwise I would get rid of it too. Lot of people have been muted on both. Ive created a personal rule that if the only thing you put on my feed is political, no matter which side of the aisle it is, you get muted.wilmwolf80 said:
So tired of the virtue signaling mask posts on social media. I've got one friend ranting about half the people in the grocery store not wearing masksv when she was there yesterday. I just spent twenty minutes in my local, very crowded, Teeter, and only saw two people not wearing a mask- a college aged female, and a 70+ year old male. Literally every single other person had a mask on, including myself, even though I personally don't think it makes any difference. Attacking people, and saying that those that aren't wearing a mask must belong to a certain political party, which was the purpose of her post, serves no purpose, and damn sure doesn't convince anyone who isn't wearing a mask to do so. All of which I would say to her, but I don't feel like getting attacked by a hundred people on Facebook today, so I'm complaining here instead.
Right...I was referring to when the media says "we're just reporting the facts, don't blame us if they are bad" which is becoming a theme now....
7/12/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Quote:
6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)
NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1366* deaths
1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.
DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1376* deaths
1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1400* deaths
1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.
After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!
Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.
Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.
Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1417* deaths
2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?
I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.
All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.
Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198
NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)
230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1420* deaths
1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.
So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.
Another weird day with deaths.
Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30
Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)
County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.
On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)
NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)
231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1425* deaths
1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.
County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.
Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.
I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.
I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.
County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.
NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)
233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1426* deaths
1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.
Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.
Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.
Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.
NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)
239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1438* deaths
1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.
Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.
Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.
I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.
NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1459* deaths
1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.
New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.
Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.
Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.
NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1468* deaths
2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.
Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.
Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.
Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.
NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1493* deaths
1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)
Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.
NC Cases
83,795
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1507* deaths
2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.
Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.
Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22
Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.
Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.
Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?
NC Cases
85,701
NC Deaths
1503
Currently Hospitalized
1070 <- 84% reporting (was 1093 at 88% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,199,575
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
181 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
467 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
1036 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1523* deaths
1908 positive cases over 23517 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
Weird things with death numbers today. Numbers are all shifted around, 1 less GenPop, + 5 Unknown, and it looked like some deaths from within Congregate actually shifted source. Strange.
Will keep looking into county and day of death and post when done.
Dates of Death ADDED Today:
7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5, 626
Dates of Death REMOVED Today:
6/19, 5/31
County level even STRANGER:
Counties with Deaths ADDED Today
Forsyth(1), Orange(1), Union (1), Wake (5), Wilkes (1)
Counties with Deaths REMOVED Today
Guilford(-2), Hoke (-1), New Hanover (-1), Robeson (-1)
That is now 22 deaths for Wake reported in the last 6 days. Wake has reported 18 deaths so far with a date of death in July. Worst two weeks for fatalities in Wake are the last 2 weeks.
Also odd. Only about 30% of cases reported today contained the ethnicity demographic information that is historically available in just under two thirds of all cases.
Just came here to post this article. Very interesting and would explain the declining deaths.
That is a great article...and i don't know if anyone clicked on the YouTube clip in the middle of the journalist addressing a board in CA but that was gold
New York reports 0 deaths from Coronavirus today.
packgrad said:
New York reports 0 deaths from Coronavirus today.
Smells like HIT
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I thought everyone might find this graph interesting to consider. I have plotted deaths by the date of death (blue lines) and deaths by date they were reported by NCDHHS (orange lines). The bars indicated the number of deaths that either occurred or were reported on each day. The lines are seven-day moving average trend lines for each of these data sets.
As everyone knows, NC often lumps deaths together and shows large spikes periodically, which the news media likes to report as evidence that things are getting worse. As you can see, in both instances, the trend for deaths since the beginning of June has been down. The death by date of death trend line is dropping more quickly than the deaths by date of reporting trend line, but both are definitely showing a pronounced decline in deaths.
As everyone knows, NC often lumps deaths together and shows large spikes periodically, which the news media likes to report as evidence that things are getting worse. As you can see, in both instances, the trend for deaths since the beginning of June has been down. The death by date of death trend line is dropping more quickly than the deaths by date of reporting trend line, but both are definitely showing a pronounced decline in deaths.
Davie,
when you send this type of evidence to the local media members....what do they say? I mean, they do realize that the work you and Wayland are doing (awesome work) is their jobs, right?
Do they dismiss? Doubt you? Push back? Thank you and ask to use your evidence?
when you send this type of evidence to the local media members....what do they say? I mean, they do realize that the work you and Wayland are doing (awesome work) is their jobs, right?
Do they dismiss? Doubt you? Push back? Thank you and ask to use your evidence?
Was a little worried about this 4 day run aided by Wake's surge, but if the death rate stays closer to 10 than 15, would be positive.
I expected a spike at some point.
I expected a spike at some point.
Packchem91 said:
Davie,
when you send this type of evidence to the local media members....what do they say? I mean, they do realize that the work you and Wayland are doing (awesome work) is their jobs, right?
Do they dismiss? Doubt you? Push back? Thank you and ask to use your evidence?
Only one media member has ever responded to me. When I challenged Meck misusing the Upenn model and pointed out how they were not using it properly. They responded to me saying that models are imperfect and Meck added an FAQ.
I dont know how many weeks later, that media member retweeted a story that someone else had done which finally called out what I had been saying.
No one else has ever responded.
Reach out to Joe Bruno. He's the man, and at the very least, will respond. WSOC-TV had actually stated during a newscast recently they will change the way numbers are reported to reflect the actual dates of reported cases and deaths.
Frustrating.....I'm sure they get lots of crank responders who make claims w/o details....but when someone sends real data, not sure why they wouldn't be able to review it. I won't pretend to know how busy they are every day, but when the one story you are covering is Covid, would think they could devote some time to data from sources other than just the Govt.Wayland said:Packchem91 said:
Davie,
when you send this type of evidence to the local media members....what do they say? I mean, they do realize that the work you and Wayland are doing (awesome work) is their jobs, right?
Do they dismiss? Doubt you? Push back? Thank you and ask to use your evidence?
Only one media member has ever responded to me. When I challenged Meck misusing the Upenn model and pointed out how they were not using it properly. They responded to me saying that models are imperfect and Meck added an FAQ.
I dont know how many weeks later, that media member retweeted a story that someone else had done which finally called out what I had been saying.
No one else has ever responded.
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Packgrad - Thanks for posting this article. It sums up so much of what I have been thinking about lately. I am planning to post the link on my Facebook page and I suspect I will get some push back. At this point, I am tired of people denying the data. I am an engineer and I was taught to trust the data. I make interpretations and people are welcome to question my interpretations, but they have to do it with their own data.packgrad said:
Or Brett Jensen, who has taken on some of the local agencies reporting. (Charlotte). He also has NOT been called on during the governor's press conference for 4 months, despite representing the largest news radio station between DC and ATL. #transparency, or something like that.BruceDouble said:
Reach out to Joe Bruno. He's the man, and at the very least, will respond. WSOC-TV had actually stated during a newscast recently they will change the way numbers are reported to reflect the actual dates of reported cases and deaths.
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No media person has ever responded to any of my comments back to their Tweets. I did DM one media member a couple of weeks ago with a question regarding how the percentages NCDHHS is presenting are calculated, but this has been all the interaction I have had. A few people have commented back on my Tweets (I always include my graphs), accusing me of manipulating the data and using statistics to frame a point of view. I do use data to frame a point of view, but it is a point of view that comes from looking at different slices of the data.Packchem91 said:
Davie,
when you send this type of evidence to the local media members....what do they say? I mean, they do realize that the work you and Wayland are doing (awesome work) is their jobs, right?
Do they dismiss? Doubt you? Push back? Thank you and ask to use your evidence?
A few months ago I produced a lengthy post on Facebook and it was well received well by many friends and it was posted on a local newpaper's site and forwarded to a former head of a large Conservative organization. I have a former work colleague who is now a professor at UNC and he has some connections that have received my work as well. He has asked me to post more info, but it does take time to build a detailed analysis (at least one I would want to put my name on), so I have not done so lately. My analysis is generally limited to posts on this thread and trying to put some Tweets into their proper context when I feel the Tweeter is not being totally accurate.
A few people have dismissed me because I am just (in their words) a "sports photographer" or the fact I am not a doctor or in the medical profession. Basically, it is the "stay in your lane" mentality. What I am is an engineer and a data analyst. I love looking at and analyzing data from a data analyst point of view. I look at the data and try to come up with theories that are supported by the data. I read a lot and am self-taught in many areas. In other areas like data analysis, I have been paid for to do this type of work. So, it amuse me when people try to diminish my abilities by saying I am just a "sports photographer" (something else I get paid to do).
I appreciate that one media member did have a legitimate back and forth with me through email, even if he didn't follow through. I mentioned his name to someone else I know who knows the state media and I was told this guy was one of the good ones.
The misinformantion is awful on social media too. I and my wife have seen several posts citing how many kids will die with a 0.0016 'death rate' for kids. Which is really .0016 %, so they multiply by 0.0016 instead of 0.000016 to overestimate how many kids will die by a factor of 100. That was the estimate for 5 to 9. For 10 to 19 it is even less at 0.00032%. Again, one is too many and this is serious enough to do with the actual info.
So tired of fighting misinformation.
I don't care what you do, but do it with real information, data, and proper math.
The misinformantion is awful on social media too. I and my wife have seen several posts citing how many kids will die with a 0.0016 'death rate' for kids. Which is really .0016 %, so they multiply by 0.0016 instead of 0.000016 to overestimate how many kids will die by a factor of 100. That was the estimate for 5 to 9. For 10 to 19 it is even less at 0.00032%. Again, one is too many and this is serious enough to do with the actual info.
So tired of fighting misinformation.
I don't care what you do, but do it with real information, data, and proper math.
Just looking at death totals per day nation wide on worldometers, it appears the height for deaths in a day was around 5/1 with around 2,700 deaths. Since then, it has trended downward steadily but I don't see this reported anywhere. It appears we haven't gone above 2,000 since the very start of May and haven't been above 1,000 since around June 14th. Wonder why this doesn't get more attention in the media?(not really wondering. I know why.)
Wayland said:
I appreciate that one media member did have a legitimate back and forth with me through email, even if he didn't follow through. I mentioned his name to someone else I know who knows the state media and I was told this guy was one of the good ones.
The misinformantion is awful on social media too. I and my wife have seen several posts citing how many kids will die with a 0.0016 'death rate' for kids. Which is really .0016 %, so they multiply by 0.0016 instead of 0.000016 to overestimate how many kids will die by a factor of 100. That was the estimate for 5 to 9. For 10 to 19 it is even less at 0.00032%. Again, one is too many and this is serious enough to do with the actual info.
So tired of fighting misinformation.
I don't care what you do, but do it with real information, data, and proper math.
As to your last part. PREACH, PREACH, PREACH! SCREAM IT LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK TO HEAR!
Davie-
I shared it with a friend who shared some links which really struck at the credibility of the site. Do you know anything about the source?
I shared it with a friend who shared some links which really struck at the credibility of the site. Do you know anything about the source?
"The misinformantion is awful on social media too. I and my wife have seen several posts citing how many kids will die with a 0.0016 'death rate' for kids. Which is really .0016 %, so they multiply by 0.0016 instead of 0.000016 to overestimate how many kids will die by a factor of 100. That was the estimate for 5 to 9. For 10 to 19 it is even less at 0.00032%. Again, one is too many and this is serious enough to do with the actual info."
The post I've seen multiple people share today is claiming .02 percent of kids will die if they go back to school in the fall, and extrapolating that out to 15k kids.
The post I've seen multiple people share today is claiming .02 percent of kids will die if they go back to school in the fall, and extrapolating that out to 15k kids.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
wilmwolf80 said:
"The misinformantion is awful on social media too. I and my wife have seen several posts citing how many kids will die with a 0.0016 'death rate' for kids. Which is really .0016 %, so they multiply by 0.0016 instead of 0.000016 to overestimate how many kids will die by a factor of 100. That was the estimate for 5 to 9. For 10 to 19 it is even less at 0.00032%. Again, one is too many and this is serious enough to do with the actual info."
The post I've seen multiple people share today is claiming .02 percent of kids will die if they go back to school in the fall, and extrapolating that out to 15k kids.
Any child dying is a tragedy, so it is so hard to provide a counter-narrative to these posts.
But a child is more likely to die in an accident on the way to school than in school itself of COVID.
So many problems with these posts. One, they try and use an infection fatality rate (or EVEN worse a case fatality rate) and use it as a population fatality rate. Next they almost always get their decimal places wrong when multiplying by a percent to add additional fear factor.
Also with 'calculations', they are assuming that no child has ever been affected (to maximize the number of possible deaths). They also make an assumption that just because a child doesn't go to school they don't have ANY chance to be infected outside the school environment.
Nationally, as of the most current provisional death count from the CDC (updated July 8), there have been 14 deaths in 'school age' children (ages 5-14) that involved COVID-19. I don't care if it was the primary cause or not, every one is tragic. (In the last 4 flu seasons, there have typically been between 70-100 flu deaths a year in the 5-17 age range, CDC breaks the age groups down differently).
But people are so microscopically focused on COVID19 and then use bad numbers and calculations to make things look 100 or even 1000 times worse than the reality just feeds fear.
We can look to all those European countries which didn't close schools or have had schools open for months and see the risk is minimal. We don't even have to guess, Sweden has basically been running an experiment this whole time.
Right, which has been one of my main points this whole time. We as a society have accepted a certain amount of risk of death every day, but now, things have changed with Covid. As tragic as it is, school aged children die every day, from a myriad of reasons, but with Covid19, a hard line has been drawn by many people, and anything above 0 is unacceptable. I think if a child has a compromised immune system, or someone in their immediate family does, they shouldn't be in school. As you say, there is a lot of data out there showing the risks, we aren't dealing with an unknown like we were in the spring. It's a tough thing to talk about. I don't want any children to die, but they will, from any number of causes, whether they are in school or not, I just don't think society can handle kids being home at this point. Parents have to get back to work.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
I thought this was an interesting article talking about School reopening. Worth discussion
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/09/reopening-schools-coronavirus-pandemic-expert-analysis-politics-2020-355466
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/09/reopening-schools-coronavirus-pandemic-expert-analysis-politics-2020-355466
7/13/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/12/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Quote:
6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)
NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1366* deaths
1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.
DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1376* deaths
1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1400* deaths
1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.
After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!
Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.
Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.
Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1417* deaths
2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?
I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.
All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.
Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198
NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)
230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1420* deaths
1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.
So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.
Another weird day with deaths.
Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30
Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)
County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.
On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)
NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)
231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1425* deaths
1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.
County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.
Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.
I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.
I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.
County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.
NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)
233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1426* deaths
1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.
Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.
Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.
Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.
NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)
239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1438* deaths
1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.
Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.
Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.
I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.
NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1459* deaths
1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.
New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.
Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.
Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.
NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1468* deaths
2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.
Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.
Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.
Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.
NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1493* deaths
1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)
Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.
NC Cases
83,795
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1507* deaths
2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.
Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.
Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22
Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.
Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.
Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?
NC Cases
85,701
NC Deaths
1503
Currently Hospitalized
1070 <- 84% reporting (was 1093 at 88% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,199,575
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
181 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
467 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
1036 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1523* deaths
1908 positive cases over 23517 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
Weird things with death numbers today. Numbers are all shifted around, 1 less GenPop, + 5 Unknown, and it looked like some deaths from within Congregate actually shifted source. Strange.
Will keep looking into county and day of death and post when done.
Dates of Death ADDED Today:
7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5, 626
Dates of Death REMOVED Today:
6/19, 5/31
County level even STRANGER:
Counties with Deaths ADDED Today
Forsyth(1), Orange(1), Union (1), Wake (5), Wilkes (1)
Counties with Deaths REMOVED Today
Guilford(-2), Hoke (-1), New Hanover (-1), Robeson (-1)
That is now 22 deaths for Wake reported in the last 6 days. Wake has reported 18 deaths so far with a date of death in July. Worst two weeks for fatalities in Wake are the last 2 weeks.
Also odd. Only about 30% of cases reported today contained the ethnicity demographic information that is historically available in just under two thirds of all cases.
NC Cases
87,528
NC Deaths
1510
Currently Hospitalized
1040 <- 80% reporting (was 1070 at 84% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,220,486
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
186 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
469 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1041 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1533* deaths
1827 positive cases over 20911 new tests. 8.7% positive rate.
Deaths today appear to be from Meck(4), Durham(2), and Surry
Date of Deaths added today: 7/12, 7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5(2), 7/4
One death was changed from missing to actual date.
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I have updated a couple of charts today. I expect some in the media to start trying to make a point about deaths increasing, if they use graphs that show deaths by date reported instead of deaths by the of the death. WRAL did exactly this last week. So I have updated the graph that shows deaths by the date of death with trend lines (blue lines) and deaths by the date of the report by NCDHHS (orange lines). As you can clearly see, deaths by the date of death (the appropriate way to look at this data) are trending down, while deaths by the date the deaths were reported are trending up. This is all due to the fact that the data has lags associated with validation of the deaths to insure they are actually Covid-19 deaths.
The other graph shows cases by specimen date for the cases reported today. It appears the case reporting still has about a 12 to 14 day lag. I assume this is still due to testing capacity and getting all of the reports in from the labs and hospitals.
Deaths by Date of Death vs Deaths by Date of Report with Trend Lines:
Cases by Specimen Date for the 7/12 Update:
The other graph shows cases by specimen date for the cases reported today. It appears the case reporting still has about a 12 to 14 day lag. I assume this is still due to testing capacity and getting all of the reports in from the labs and hospitals.
Deaths by Date of Death vs Deaths by Date of Report with Trend Lines:
Cases by Specimen Date for the 7/12 Update:
Thanks for doing this. The case one is really helpful to see what is being reported.
So do you think 7/6 is mostly complete? Or are we going to see a big chunk there. If less than 200 than 7/6 will have less cases than the previous Monday.
So do you think 7/6 is mostly complete? Or are we going to see a big chunk there. If less than 200 than 7/6 will have less cases than the previous Monday.
Davie --- that first graph --- one could tell 2 completely different headlines with that one, couldn't they. One good news, one bad news. Wonder which will be told.
I think an interesting one is that despite the increases in highly populated states like Texas, Florida, etc., the daily deaths appear to be flat or lower than at the height of NYC's issues. Follows in-line with what others have posted about those getting COVID in other states aren't the ones in the nursing homes and elderly and therefore much more likely to be OK..
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