Coronavirus

2,000,885 Views | 19842 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by Werewolf
Daviewolf83
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With regards to delays and lags in case data reporting, I did receive this response to a Tweet I made yesterday. It helps to provide some insight into a potential reason for some of the delays:

"One of the major testing centers had an analyzer/mechanical issue that caused major delays in results this past week."
Wayland
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So post holiday weekend surge? Would think 7 days is a little early for that.
Wolfblood
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That sounds great, but these numbers and data points are being used to make decisions on every aspect of our lives. Asking that these numbers be as precise as possible shouldn't be asking too much. Dying from covid and dying with covid should be an important distinction and should be looked at with more scrutiny when the government is making life and death decisions concerning it's citizens.

It's hard to separate the medical and the political when politicians are using the medical information to impose stay at home orders. Determine which business owners and workers are essential and deemed worthy of a livelihood and the ability to provide an income for their families.

I think more transparency would benefit everyone. How does it help anyone to drop a backlog of deaths that occurred over the course of a month into one single day? Why not take each death and slot it on the actual day it happened?

Maybe they eventually do that, but the media runs with most deaths in a day narrative and never adds context. I will be interested to see if that is what happened in Florida and Texas yesterday. Were all of those deaths yesterday or were some from weeks ago? It really won't matter because if they were backlogged the correction will never be made and the media got their headline.

When life and death decisions are being made we need more transparency, more precision and less generalities.

Everpack
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Looks like that is exactly the case with Florida's numbers.
Wayland
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I mean, Florida not in a great space right now, but their current single highest day of deaths in the last month is 55. But that is still within the last week, so subject to data lag. It is definitely real there right now.

Then again, like I said Virginia is reporting like 20 months old deaths a day these days.
Wayland
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So Meck hospital numbers not as high as I would have thought. Still about where they were a week ago when they had that big jump. Would have thought with NC numbers rising, they would have been higher.



Cases down, mostly because of holiday weekend.

Wayland
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Wayland said:

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.


7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198


7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)
7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.
7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.
7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1438* deaths

1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.

Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.

Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.

I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.

7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1459* deaths

1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.

New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.

Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.

7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1468* deaths

2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.

Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.

Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.

Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.
7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1493* deaths

1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)

Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.
Wayland
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Update out of Wake Forest Baptist antibody study. I would like to see the IgG higher, but still just for something to look at as a data point.

Daviewolf83
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I just read an interesting article in the LA Times regarding a potential "stop-gap" approach to protect people from the coronavirus until vaccine is available. It seems to have some strong support from people familiar with this approach, but the Federal government has rejected the idea twice. It involves delivering antibodies found in plasma that can be concentrated and delivered to patients through immune globulin It says the immunity shots are easy to scale and they could enter clinical trials now.

Hopefully, someone with a better understanding of the science can comment on this approach and why it may be something the Federal government is blocking. I have linked to the article below:


Injection to prevent Coronavirus
PackMom
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Hmmmm. Kind of like when someone has been exposed to hepatitis and they give them immune globulin. Interesting.
Daviewolf83
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Based on the latest info posted today by NCDHHS, I have a few updated graphs. One shows the distribution of new cases announced today, based on the date of specimen. The other graph shows Daily New Cases over time and shows the lagged data for the last five days. On top of this chart, I have superimposed the Daily New Tests as a moving average, to give you a sense for the increase in testing over time. As you can clearly see, there appears to be a direct relationship between the increase in Daily New Cases and the Daily New Tests being run.

This is even more clear if you look at the last graph I posted, showing the Daily Percent Positive (with trend line) and the Daily New Tests (with trend line). As you can see from the graph, while the Daily New Tests are trending up, the Daily Percent Positive is trending down. For cases to be increasing daily with these conditions, you would have to perform an increasing number of tests daily to get higher cases for each date.

If you are interested, here is a link to a very good article on NC and how data is being incorrectly reported by Dr. Cohen and Governor Cooper:

Graphing Covid: Deaths and known cases

Fundamentally, we are at a point now where testing is "discovering" and the testing we are doing is not finding a growth in cases. It is finding a growth in "discovered" cases. Cases are growing because testing is growing. If the percent positive was increasing you could definitely make the case that cases are increasing, even if testing is increasing. You can not make this case if the percent positive is trending down, but the number of cases is increasing.

New Cases by Specimen Date for the 7/10 Cases (1,982 cases):




Daily New Cases by Specimen Date with New Daily Tests (7-Day Moving Average):




Percent Positive (with Trend Line) and Daily New Tests (with Trend Line):

Wayland
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Cool. Enjoy your graphs. Please keep them up!

It looks like the tests today (and a little yesterday) aren't quite as backlogged as earlier in the week. Or maybe I am just seeing things that aren't there, but the distribution seems a little different to me.

It still feels like we are missing a TON of data from last week, those weekdays tended to fill themselves up.

Going to take a look at that article.
TheStorm
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^^ Of course that's what it shows... nice to see you lay it out in a way that people can't claim that's not what it shows (well, I'm sure it won't stop everybody)...
Civilized
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Great breakdown and graphs Davie thanks!

Love this thread and all the work Wayland and others put in, and Mormad and other medical pro's takes.

Restaurant quality info right here, thanks to all!
RunsWithWolves26
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https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3151129848277366&id=100001411465184&d=null&vh=i
Packchem91
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Davie -- great work. Your work should become the standard response everytime a mainstream media member suggest they are just reporting the news, not pulling for bad results, etc, and so don't blame them if the news is bad (I saw Joe Bruno retweeting one of those very tweets today)..of course its their job to report bad news -- but please for the sake of fairness, report the news accurately and in full context.

Has any NC news agency reported what you have identified? If not...why not? That is their job is too look beyond the surface, and frankly, to distrust the leaders and question their numbers. Instead, they blare headlines that look horrible.
Wayland
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Not that people care because media is excited about the death increase. While there IS serious increase going on in FL-AZ-CA-TX, a lot of the death boost we are seeing reported now is actually reporting old deaths.

Obviously there is some lag in recent weeks, but you see while in weeks past CDC deaths were added 'mostly to the most recent few weeks. This week's reconciliation was mostly for deaths the end of April/beginning of May.



@kylamb8

ncsupack1
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Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Not that people care because media is excited about the death increase. While there IS serious increase going on in FL-AZ-CA-TX, a lot of the death boost we are seeing reported now is actually reporting old deaths.

Obviously there is some lag in recent weeks, but you see while in weeks past CDC deaths were added 'mostly to the most recent few weeks. This week's reconciliation was mostly for deaths the end of April/beginning of May.



@kylamb8


If someone posts a death chart that shows deaths by "date of reported death" and not deaths by "date of death", you should definitely request them to show a "date of death" chart. A death by "date it is reported" chart is a meaningless chart (unless trying to show data lags) and is completely out of my context.

One of my biggest frustrations with the media (and why I often Tweet back at them) is due to the fact that they are lazy and do not care enough about their jobs to report statistics accurately and in context. I am using the same data they have access to, but I am taking the time to look into the numbers. I am by nature intellectually curious and love to understand how and why things work. This is due to my education as an engineer and as someone who has worked with large amounts of data and performing data analysis for many years. The media just wants to get a headline and story out to meet a deadline and the more sensational or "eye-catching" the better.
Daviewolf83
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Packchem91 said:

Davie -- great work. Your work should become the standard response everytime a mainstream media member suggest they are just reporting the news, not pulling for bad results, etc, and so don't blame them if the news is bad (I saw Joe Bruno retweeting one of those very tweets today)..of course its their job to report bad news -- but please for the sake of fairness, report the news accurately and in full context.

Has any NC news agency reported what you have identified? If not...why not? That is their job is too look beyond the surface, and frankly, to distrust the leaders and question their numbers. Instead, they blare headlines that look horrible.

Thanks for your comments. It is possible someone in the media has posted something similar, but I am not aware of any news agency in NC reporting what I have shown. The story I linked is a blog post and not from mainstream media. It was posted on Facebook by a friend of mine who is a professor at UNC. It was interesting that he linked the story at the same time I was updating the graphs for my post.
Steve Williams
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Staff
This Covid hysteria is really out of control. My father has a friend that needed to have stents put in because of heart issues. Doctor/hospital postponed the procedure due to Covid. This past week he had an apparent heart attack while driving, crashed into a creek and died. I wonder how many others have suffered a similar fate.
kmb717
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Steve Williams said:

This Covid hysteria is really out of control. My father has a friend that needed to have stents put in because of heart issues. Doctor/hospital postponed the procedure due to Covid. This past week he had an apparent heart attack while driving, crashed into a creek and died. I wonder how many others have suffered a similar fate.


Situations like this are not being brought up nearly enough. Who knows how many people have died due to inadequate or delayed care because of Covid related shut downs?
PackMom
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Steve Williams said:

This Covid hysteria is really out of control. My father has a friend that needed to have stents put in because of heart issues. Doctor/hospital postponed the procedure due to Covid. This past week he had an apparent heart attack while driving, crashed into a creek and died. I wonder how many others have suffered a similar fate.
Very sad, Steve. Sorry to hear that.
Mormad
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That's not hysteria, Steve. That's medical decision making which is based on training, experience, knowledge, and as best an understanding of the present situation as they can possibly have. We make risk benefit decisions every minute of every day. The doctors and hospitals aren't overly affected by hysteria. There are more people than we know who have been negatively affected by such decisions as the one that got your dad's friend, but it doesn't mean that in general it wasn't the right decision that much more often than not actually works to the patient's benefit. In this particular situation, community health was considered heavily also because of the pandemic.

That said, I'm personally very much against the shut down of all such elective and semi elective procedures. I never agreed with delaying reasonable and necessary care to people in need because of what MIGHT happen with covid. I think a lot of people delayed care and were possibly harmed in some way, even if it were just prolonged pain. But I understand WHY it was done and the POTENTIAL implications of what COULD have happened if the health system were suddenly overwhelmed. The potential harm to the community could have been 10 fold over the indirect harms you mention. I know the overall sentiment of this board, and many won't like my view, but I believe I'm right (often wrong but never in doubt) and we won't know if I'm wrong until much much later. And as I have said, who and what are you personally willing to risk until it's clear. And only the individual can answer that.

I put off a ton of surgery on folks that I felt would benefit from it, often scowling at the system and disease that made me do it. I hate what happened to your dad's friend, and don't expect you to understand what I'm saying I guess, but I understand why the decision was likely made, and it wasn't hysterical. But it still is awful. I'm sorry to hear it
Mormad
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It is indeed being discussed, and studied, and it's likely more than we care to know, friend.
Mormad
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I rarely ever touch the little emoji faces, but they often show up on my posts and never reflect my feelings. Maybe they reflect the feelings of others about my posts?
PackMom
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Mormad said:

I rarely ever touch the little emoji faces, but they often show up on my posts and never reflect my feelings. Maybe they reflect the feelings of others about my posts?
I doubt it? I've seen them show up when I didn't click them, either, and they show up as soon as I post. I've seen other people comment on it as well. Who knows. (The Shadow knows?)
Daviewolf83
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PackMom said:

Mormad said:

I rarely ever touch the little emoji faces, but they often show up on my posts and never reflect my feelings. Maybe they reflect the feelings of others about my posts?
I doubt it? I've seen them show up when I didn't click them, either, and they show up as soon as I post. I've seen other people comment on it as well. Who knows. (The Shadow knows?)
I have no idea where the little emoji faces come from and do not typically notice them. I love the honest and open back and forth most of us have on this thread. I feel like I learn something from Mormad with every one of his posts and Wayland does such an outstanding job of keeping the statistics updated and providing insight and links to articles on the subject.

Of course, we all want the virus to just go away, but I am afraid it is here for a long while. Even when we develop a vaccine and better treatments. In Dr. Ohl's weekly update on the virus last week (I am missing his updates this week and next), he said he believes we will still be dealing with it for the rest of this year and the early half of next year, but he is optimistic by that by July 4 next year we will be at a point we can celebrate our independence from the virus. I like his optimism and really hope he is right.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Quote:

6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.


7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198


7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)
7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.
7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.
7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1438* deaths

1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.

Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.

Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.

I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.

7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1459* deaths

1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.

New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.

Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.

7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1468* deaths

2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.

Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.

Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.

Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.
7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1493* deaths

1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)

Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.
7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1507* deaths

2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.

Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.

Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22

Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.

Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.

Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?
Wayland
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wilmwolf
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So tired of the virtue signaling mask posts on social media. I've got one friend ranting about half the people in the grocery store not wearing masksv when she was there yesterday. I just spent twenty minutes in my local, very crowded, Teeter, and only saw two people not wearing a mask- a college aged female, and a 70+ year old male. Literally every single other person had a mask on, including myself, even though I personally don't think it makes any difference. Attacking people, and saying that those that aren't wearing a mask must belong to a certain political party, which was the purpose of her post, serves no purpose, and damn sure doesn't convince anyone who isn't wearing a mask to do so. All of which I would say to her, but I don't feel like getting attacked by a hundred people on Facebook today, so I'm complaining here instead.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
packgrad
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wilmwolf80 said:

So tired of the virtue signaling mask posts on social media. I've got one friend ranting about half the people in the grocery store not wearing masksv when she was there yesterday. I just spent twenty minutes in my local, very crowded, Teeter, and only saw two people not wearing a mask- a college aged female, and a 70+ year old male. Literally every single other person had a mask on, including myself, even though I personally don't think it makes any difference. Attacking people, and saying that those that aren't wearing a mask must belong to a certain political party, which was the purpose of her post, serves no purpose, and damn sure doesn't convince anyone who isn't wearing a mask to do so. All of which I would say to her, but I don't feel like getting attacked by a hundred people on Facebook today, so I'm complaining here instead.


I deleted FB off my phone. The holier than thou virtue signaling was too much. Made me remember why most of them are only FB "friends".
BruceDouble
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Some people just like to ***** and moan. The Nextdoor app is hilarious sometimes with the stuff people complain about. I either laugh at it or ignore it.
Wayland
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Check out the detail you can get on a county level in Texas. NC needs to get their act together with data.


Wayland
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I have been harping on Virginia for being awful on posting months old deaths. 200 reported deaths in July but only 17 actual.

But holy crap NJ!!!! EDIT... seriously... I can't wrap my head around this.... they are done... like DONE DONE... it is over and has been for a long time.... like how is that not news? My head is about to explode... I knew the virus burned itself out... but they have been DONE DONE DONE for over 6 weeks.

NJ has reported 460 deaths in July. Those are deaths that go against the daily national counts. Look at this graph of WHEN deaths happened in NJ. They have actually only had 2 deaths in July so far.... this is crazy. Deaths have been basically non-existent in NJ for 6 weeks.

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